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HomeMy WebLinkAboutGalveston County HMP_Volume 1_APA2022 Multi-Jurisdictional2022 Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation PlanHazard Mitigation Plan Galveston County Volume I May 2022 0: Table of Contents Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan i 2022 Update Table of Contents Table of Contents ................................................................................................................................................... i SECTION 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... iv 1.1 Purpose ................................................................................................................................................. 1-1 1.2 Background .......................................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.3 Plan Organization ................................................................................................................................. 1-1 1.4 The Updated Plan – What is Different? ............................................................................................... 1-4 SECTION 2. PLANNING PROCESS ............................................................................................................ 2-1 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Organization of the Planning Process .................................................................................................. 2-2 2.2.1 Organization of Planning Partnership ........................................................................................... 2-2 2.2.2 Planning Activities ........................................................................................................................ 2-5 2.3 Stakeholder Outreach and Involvement ............................................................................................... 2-7 2.3.1 Federal, State, and County Agencies ............................................................................................ 2-7 2.3.2 Regional and Local Stakeholders .................................................................................................. 2-8 2.3.3 Stakeholder Survey Summary ..................................................................................................... 2-10 2.4 Public Participation – Resident Involvement ..................................................................................... 2-12 2.5 Incorporation of Existing Plans, Studies, Reports, and Technical Information ................................. 2-13 2.6 Integration with Existing Planning Mechanisms and Programs ......................................................... 2-14 2.7 Continued Public Involvement ........................................................................................................... 2-14 SECTION 3. GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE ........................................................................................ 3-1 3.1 General Information ............................................................................................................................. 3-1 3.2 Major Past Hazard Events .................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.3 Physical Setting .................................................................................................................................... 3-2 3.3.1 Location ........................................................................................................................................ 3-2 3.3.2 Topography and Geology .............................................................................................................. 3-2 3.3.3 Hydrography and Hydrology ........................................................................................................ 3-3 3.3.4 Climate .......................................................................................................................................... 3-3 3.3.5 Land Use and Land Cover ............................................................................................................ 3-3 3.4 Population And Demographics ............................................................................................................ 3-5 3.4.1 Vulnerable Populations ................................................................................................................. 3-6 3.4.2 General Building Stock ................................................................................................................. 3-7 3.4.3 Land Use Trends ........................................................................................................................... 3-8 3.4.4 Population Trends ....................................................................................................................... 3-10 0: Table of Contents Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan ii 2022 Update 3.4.5 Future Growth and Development ................................................................................................ 3-10 3.5 Lifelines and Critical Facilities .......................................................................................................... 3-10 3.5.1 Safety and Security ..................................................................................................................... 3-11 3.5.2 Food, Water, and Shelter Lifelines ............................................................................................. 3-13 3.5.3 Health and Medical Lifelines ...................................................................................................... 3-13 3.5.4 Energy (Power and Fuel) Lifelines ............................................................................................. 3-16 3.5.5 Communication Lifelines ............................................................................................................ 3-16 3.5.6 Transportation Lifelines .............................................................................................................. 3-16 3.5.7 Hazardous Materials Lifelines .................................................................................................... 3-20 SECTION 4. RISK ASSESSMENT ............................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 METHODOLOGY AND TOOLS ....................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1.1 Risk Assessment Tools ................................................................................................................. 4-1 4.1.2 Risk Assessment Approach ........................................................................................................... 4-2 4.1.3 Sources of Data Used in Hazus Modeling and Exposure Analyses .............................................. 4-5 4.1.4 Limitations .................................................................................................................................... 4-7 4.2 IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDS OF CONCERN .......................................................................... 4-8 4.2.1 Changes from the 2017 Hazard Mitigation Plan ........................................................................... 4-8 4.2.2 Hazard Groupings ......................................................................................................................... 4-8 4.3 Hazard Profiles ................................................................................................................................... 4-12 4.3.1 Erosion ........................................................................................................................................ 4-12 4.3.2 Dam and Levee Failure ............................................................................................................... 4-25 4.3.3 Drought ....................................................................................................................................... 4-37 4.3.4 Expansive Soils ........................................................................................................................... 4-45 4.3.5 Extreme Temperature .................................................................................................................. 4-52 4.3.6 Flood ........................................................................................................................................... 4-60 4.3.7 Hail .............................................................................................................................................. 4-81 4.3.8 Hurricane and Tropical Storm ..................................................................................................... 4-87 4.3.9 Land Subsidence ....................................................................................................................... 4-103 4.3.10 Lightning ............................................................................................................................... 4-107 4.3.11 Pandemic ............................................................................................................................... 4-114 4.3.12 Severe Winter Storm ............................................................................................................. 4-121 4.3.13 Thunderstorm Wind .............................................................................................................. 4-129 4.3.14 Tornadoes ............................................................................................................................. 4-142 4.3.15 Tsunami ................................................................................................................................ 4-151 4.3.16 Utility Failure ........................................................................................................................ 4-157 0: Table of Contents Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan iii 2022 Update 4.3.17 Wildfire ................................................................................................................................. 4-163 4.4 Risk Ranking .................................................................................................................................... 4-173 4.4.1 Hazard Ranking Methodology .................................................................................................. 4-173 4.4.2 Hazard Ranking Results ............................................................................................................ 4-179 SECTION 5. CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................ 5-1 5.1 Update Process Summary..................................................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Planning and Regulatory Capability .................................................................................................... 5-2 5.2.1 Planning and Regulatory Capabilities – County and Local .......................................................... 5-2 5.2.2 Planning and Regulatory Capabilities – Federal and State ........................................................... 5-4 5.3 Administrative and Technical Capabilities ........................................................................................ 5-11 5.4 Fiscal Capabilities .............................................................................................................................. 5-12 5.5 Plan Integration .................................................................................................................................. 5-21 5.5.1 Integration Process ...................................................................................................................... 5-21 SECTION 6. MITIGATION STRATEGY ..................................................................................................... 6-1 6.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 6-1 6.2 Background and Past Mitigation Accomplishments ............................................................................ 6-1 6.3 General Mitigation Planning Approach ............................................................................................... 6-2 6.4 Strengths, Weaknesses, Obstacles, and Opportunities Exercise .......................................................... 6-3 6.5 Review and Update of Mitigation Goals and Objectives ..................................................................... 6-3 6.5.1 Goals and Objectives .................................................................................................................... 6-3 6.6 Mitigation Strategy Development and Update ..................................................................................... 6-4 6.6.1 Review of the 2017 HMP Mitigation Action Plan ........................................................................ 6-4 6.6.2 Identification and Analysis of Mitigation Techniques .................................................................. 6-5 6.6.3 2022 HMP Mitigation Action Plan ............................................................................................... 6-5 6.6.4 Mitigation Best Practices .............................................................................................................. 6-6 6.6.5 Mitigation Strategy Evaluation and Prioritization ........................................................................ 6-7 6.6.6 Benefit/Cost Review ..................................................................................................................... 6-8 SECTION 7. PLAN MAINTENANCE ........................................................................................................ 7-10 7.1 Monitoring, Evaluating and Updating the Plan .................................................................................. 7-10 7.1.1 Monitoring .................................................................................................................................. 7-11 7.1.2 Integration Process of the HMP into Municipal Planning Mechanisms ..................................... 7-12 7.1.3 Evaluating ................................................................................................................................... 7-14 7.1.4 Updating ...................................................................................................................................... 7-16 7.1.5 Grant Monitoring and Coordination............................................................................................ 7-16 7.2 Implementation of Mitigation Plan Through Existing Programs ....................................................... 7-17 0: Table of Contents Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan iv 2022 Update 7.3 Continued Public Involvement ........................................................................................................... 7-22 SECTION 8. PLANNING PARTNERSHIP ................................................................................................ 8-24 8.1 Plan Maintenance Procedures ............................................................................................................ 8-24 8.2 Initial Solicitation and Letters of intent .............................................................................................. 8-24 8.3 Planning Partner Expectations ........................................................................................................... 8-24 8.4 Jurisdictional Annex Preparation Process .......................................................................................... 8-25 8.4.1 Data Collection ........................................................................................................................... 8-25 8.4.2 Hazard Ranking Exercise ............................................................................................................ 8-25 8.4.3 Strengths Weaknesses Obstacles and Opportunities (SWOO) Exercise ..................................... 8-26 8.4.4 Mitigation Strategy Workshop .................................................................................................... 8-26 8.4.5 Municipal Support Conference Calls .......................................................................................... 8-26 8.4.6 Jurisdictional Annexes ................................................................................................................ 8-26 8.4.7 Annex Review ............................................................................................................................. 8-28 8.5 Coverage Under the Plan.................................................................................................................... 8-28 References ............................................................................................................................................................. 1 SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 1-1 2022 Update SECTION 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 PURPOSE Galveston County and 11 of its jurisdictions have prepared this hazard mitigation action plan update to better protect the residents and property throughout the County from the effects of hazard events. This plan demonstrates the County’s and each jurisdiction’s commitment to reducing risk from hazards, increasing resilience overall, and provide a tool to help decision makers integrate mitigation in their day -to-day processes. This plan was also developed to position Galveston County and its participating jurisdictions for eligibility of pre- and post-disaster Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) grants, including Hazard Mitigation Assistance grant programs (HMA), which include Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP), Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC), and Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA). This plan also aligns with the planning elements of the National Flood Insurance Program’s Community Rating System (CRS) which provides for lower flood insurance premiums in CRS communities. 1.2 BACKGROUND A Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP) is a living document that communities use to reduce their vulnerability to hazards. It forms the foundation for a community's long-term strategy to reduce disaster losses and creates a framework for decision making to reduce damages to lives, property, and the economy from future disasters. Examples of mitigation projects include home acquisitions or elevations to remove structures from high-risk areas, upgrades to critical public facilities, and infrastructure improvements. Ultimately, these actions reduce vulnerability, and communities are able to recover more quickly from disasters. Galveston County has demonstrated its commitment to reducing disaster losses by initially developing its multi-jurisdictional HMP in 2006 and updating information upon which to base a successful mitigation strategy to reduce the impacts of natural disasters and to increase the resiliency of its communities. In response to the requirements of the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA 2000), which requires local governmental agencies to develop and update their HMP every five years, this plan serves as the 2022 update to the 2017 Galveston County HMP. During the course of the planning process, the entire plan was updated with a focus on examining changes in vulnerability due to hazard events, reviewing local and county capabilities and how they implement hazard mitigation, and reviewing the mitigation strategy and identifying new initiatives to increase overall resiliency in the County. 1.3 PLAN ORGANIZATION The Galveston County Hazard Mitigation Action Plan 2022 Update is organized as a two-volume plan and is in alignment with the DMA planning requirements, the 2013 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Handbook, and the FEMA Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool. Hazard Mitigation is any sustained action taken to reduce or eliminate the long-term risk and effects that can result from specific hazards. FEMA defines a Hazard Mitigation Plan as the documentation of a state or local government evaluation of natural hazards and the strategies to mitigate such hazards. SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 1-2 2022 Update Volume I provides information on the overall planning process and hazard profiling and vulnerability assessments, which serves as a basis for understanding risk and identifying mitigation actions. As such, Volume I is intended for use as a resource for on-going mitigation analysis. Volume II provides an annex dedicated to each participating jurisdiction. Each annex summarizes the jurisdiction’s legal, regulatory, and fiscal capabilities; identifies vulnerabilities to hazards; documents mitigation plan integration with other planning efforts; records status of past mitigation actions; and presents an individualized mitigation strategy. The annexes are intended to provide a useful resource for each jurisdiction for implementation of mitigation projects and future grant opportunities, as well as a place for each jurisdiction to record and maintain their local aspect of the countywide plan. Figure 1-1. Galveston County Hazard Mitigation Planning Process Volume I of this HMP includes the following sections: Section 1: Introduction: Overview of the planning process and layout of the plan. Section 2: Planning Process: Description of the HMP methodology and development process; Steering Committee, Planning Committee, Planning Partnership, and stakeholder involvement efforts; and a description of how this HMP will be incorporated into existing programs. Section 3: County Profile: Overview of Galveston County, including: (1) physical setting, (2) land use, (3) land use trends, (4) population and demographics, (5) general building stock and (6) critical facilities and lifelines. Section 4: Risk Assessment: Documentation of the hazard identification and hazard risk ranking process, hazard profiles, and findings of the vulnerability assessment (estimates of the impact of hazard SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 1-3 2022 Update events on life, safety, health, general building stock, critical facilities, the economy); description of the status of local data; and planned steps to improve local data to support mitigation planning. Section 5: Capability Assessment: A summary and description of the existing plans, programs, and regulatory mechanisms at all levels of government (federal, state, county, local) that support hazard mitigation within the County. Section 6: Mitigation Strategy: Provides information regarding the mitigation goals and objectives in response to priority hazards of concern and the process by which Galveston County and local mitigation strategies have been developed or updated. Section 7: Plan Maintenance Procedures: System established to continue to monitor, evaluate, maintain, and update the HMP. Volume II of this plan includes the following sections: Section 8: Planning Partnership: Description of the planning partnership, their responsibilities, and description of jurisdictional annexes. Section 9: Jurisdictional Annexes: Jurisdiction-specific annex for Galveston County and each participating jurisdiction containing their hazards of concern, hazard ranking, capability assessment, mitigation actions, action prioritization specific only to Galveston County or that jurisdiction, progress on prior mitigation activities (as applicable), and a discussion of prior local hazard mitigation plan integration into local planning processes. Appendices include the following: Appendix A: Plan Adoption: Resolutions from the County and each jurisdiction included as each formally adopts the HMP update. Appendix B: Participation Documentation: Matrix to give a broad overview of who attended meetings and when input was provided to the HMP update, as well as Letters of Intent to Participate described in Section 2 (Planning Process), annex sign-off sheets discussed in Section 6 (Mitigation Strategy) and additional worksheets submitted during workshops conducted throughout the planning process. Appendix C: Meeting Documentation: Agendas, attendance sheets, minutes, and other documentation (as available and applicable) of planning meetings convened during the development of the plan. Appendix D: Public and Stakeholder Outreach Documentation: Documentation of the public and stakeholder outreach effort including webpages, informational materials, public and stakeholder meetings and presentations, surveys, and other methods used to receive and incorporate public and stakeholder comment and input to the plan process. Appendix E: Mitigation Strategy Supplementary Data: Documentation of the broad range of actions identified during the mitigation process; types of mitigation actions; the mitigation catalog developed using jurisdiction input and potential mitigation funding sources. Appendix F: Plan Maintenance Tools: Examples of plan review tools and templates available to support annual plan review. SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 1-4 2022 Update Appendix G: Linkage Procedures: Procedures for non-participating local governments to "link" to the plan within the period of performance to gain eligibility for programs under the DMA 2000. Appendix H: Critical Facilities: Includes a full list of critical facilities identified for the update of the HMP. Due to the sensitive nature of the information, critical facility details have been redacted. 1.4 THE UPDATED PLAN – WHAT IS DIFFERENT? Galveston County’s initial HMP was approved by FEMA and adopted in 2006. Since then, it’s been updated in 2011 and 2016. The 2022 update builds on the previous plans and includes the following changes or enhancements: • Updated data and tools provided for a more detailed and accurate risk assessment. The risk assessment was prepared to better support future grant applications by providing risk and vulnerability information that would directly support the measurement of “cost-effectiveness” required under FEMA mitigation grant programs. • The plan identified implementable actions, with enough information to serve as the basis for policy and funding decisions and represent measurable impacts on resiliency and mitigation progress. Strategies provide direction, but actions are fundable under grant programs. • Each participating jurisdiction has their own jurisdictional annex in the plan, found in Volume II, Section 9. Table 1-1. Plan Changes Crosswalk 44 CFR Requirement 2017 Plan 2022 Updated Plan Requirement §201.6(b): In order to develop a more comprehensive approach to reducing the effects of natural disasters, the planning process shall include: (1) An opportunity for the public to comment on the plan during the drafting stage and prior to plan approval. (2) An opportunity for neighboring communities, local and regional agencies involved in hazard mitigation activities, and agencies that have the authority to regulate development, as well as businesses, academia, and other private and non- profit interests to be involved in the planning process; and (3) Review and incorporation, if appropriate, of existing plans, studies, reports, and technical information. The 2017 plan followed an outreach strategy utilizing multiple media developed and approved by the Steering Committee. This strategy involved the following: • Public participation on an oversight Steering Committee. • All Planning Partnership meetings were open to the public. • Advertisements, social media posts, and flyers were distributed to gain public input. • Use of a public mitigation survey. • Stakeholders were identified and coordinated with throughout the process. Building upon the success of the 2017 plan, the 2022 planning effort deployed the same public engagement methodology. The plan included the following enhancements: • Using social media. • Web-deployed survey. As with the 2017 plan, the 2022 planning process identified key stakeholders and coordinated with them throughout the process. A comprehensive review of relevant plans and programs was performed by the planning team. §201.6(c)(2): The plan shall include a risk assessment that provides the factual basis for activities proposed in the strategy to reduce losses from identified hazards. Local risk assessments must provide sufficient information to enable the jurisdiction to identify and prioritize appropriate mitigation actions to reduce losses from identified hazards. The 2017 plan included a risk assessment of hazards of concern. It looked at assets exposed to the hazard, vulnerability, frequency of occurrence, warning time, geographic extent, potential impact, and hazard summary. The 2022 plan update includes a comprehensive update to the risk assessment. The flood hazard was expanded to include urban flooding (or flooding outside of the floodplain). New and updated hazards of concern were included. The hazard ranking methodology was adjusted and includes adaptive capacity and climate change. Jurisdiction-specific SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 1-5 2022 Update 44 CFR Requirement 2017 Plan 2022 Updated Plan risk assessment results are summarized in Section 4 (Risk Assessment) and in each jurisdictional annex (Section 9). §201.6(c)(2)(i): [The risk assessment] shall include a] description of the … location and extent of all-natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction. The plan shall include information on previous occurrences of hazard events and on the probability of future hazard events. The 2017 plan presented a risk assessment of each hazard of concern. Each section included the following: • Hazard description • Location • Extent • Historical occurrences • Probability of future events • Vulnerability assessment and impact A similar format, using new and updated data, was used for the 2022 plan update. Each section of the risk assessment includes the following: • Hazard profile, including maps of extent and location, previous occurrences, and probability of future events. • Climate change impacts on future probability. • Vulnerability assessment including impact on life, safety, and health, general building stock, critical facilities, and the economy, as well as future changes that could impact vulnerability. • The vulnerability assessment also includes changes in vulnerability since the 2017 plan. §201.6(c)(2)(ii): [The risk assessment] shall include a] description of the jurisdiction’s vulnerability to the hazards described in paragraph (c)(2)(i). This description shall include an overall summary of each hazard and its impact on the community. Vulnerability was assessed for all hazards of concern. Each hazard of concern included a summary of assets exposed to the hazard (people/parcels annualized losses and expected damage to critical facilities). A robust vulnerability assessment was conducted for the 2022 plan update, using new and updated asset and hazard data. Volume 1, Section 4.3 summarizes countywide and municipal-specific vulnerability for each hazard of concern. The jurisdictional annexes (Section 9) include a summary table of impacts on each community. §201.6(c)(2)(ii): [The risk assessment] must also address National Flood Insurance Program insured structures that have been repetitively damaged floods. A summary of NFIP insured properties including an analysis of repetitive loss property locations was included in the plan. The resolution of the RL data accessible by the County to support this planning effort was limited by FEMA’s Privacy Act Policies and the time associated with processing the requisite Information Sharing Access Agreement (ISAA). Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii)(A): The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of the types and numbers of existing and future buildings, infrastructure and critical facilities located in the identified hazard area. A complete inventory of the numbers and types of buildings exposed was generated for each hazard of concern. The Steering Committee defined “critical facilities” for the planning area, and these were inventoried by exposure. Quantitative and qualitative analyses were conducted using the updated hazard and inventory data as presented in Section 4 (Risk Assessment). In addition, critical facilities considered lifelines in accordance with FEMA’s definition were identified. Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii)(B): [The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of an] estimate of the potential dollar losses to vulnerable structures identified in paragraph (c)(2)(i)(A) and a description of the methodology used to prepare the estimate. Loss estimates were generated for all hazards of concern by using readily available information. Quantitative and qualitative analyses were conducted using the updated hazard and inventory data as presented in Section 4 (Risk Assessment). Estimated potential losses are reported in both Volume 1, Section 4.3, and Volume II Section 9 for each jurisdiction. Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii)(C): [The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of] providing a general description of land There is a summary of anticipated development in the Community profile. A spatial analysis using identified growth areas, and potential new development identified by SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 1-6 2022 Update 44 CFR Requirement 2017 Plan 2022 Updated Plan uses and development trends within the community so that mitigation options can be considered in future land use decisions. municipalities was conducted to determine if located in hazard areas. These results were reported to all participants and summarized in their annexes to discuss mitigation measures. In Volume I, Section 4.3, projected changes in population and development are discussed in each hazard section and how these projected changes may lead to increased vulnerability, or plans/regulations/ordinances in place to implement mitigation to protect the development. §201.6(c)(3):[ The plan shall include a mitigation strategy that provides the jurisdiction’s blueprint for reducing the potential losses identified in the risk assessment, based on existing authorities, policies, programs and resources, and its ability to expand on and improve these existing tools.] The 2017 plan contained goals, objectives, and actions. The identified actions covered multiple hazards, goals, and objectives. The Steering Committee reviewed and updated the goals and objectives, and they were approved by the Planning Committee. A mitigation strategy workshop with associated tools and guidance on problem statement development was deployed to inform the identification of mitigation actions. Actions that were completed or no longer considered to be feasible were removed; and actions considered general or capabilities were moved to the capability and integration sections. The balance of the actions was carried over to the 2022 plan, and in some cases, new actions were added to the action plan. Requirement §201.6(c)(3)(i): [The hazard mitigation strategy shall include a] description of mitigation goals to reduce or avoid long-term vulnerabilities to the identified hazards. The Steering Committee identified goals and objectives targeted specifically for this hazard mitigation plan. These planning components supported the actions identified in the plan. The Steering Committee reviewed and updated the goals and objectives and they were approved by the Planning Committee. Several new objectives were identified to align with updated County and municipal priorities. Requirement §201.6(c)(3)(ii): [The mitigation strategy shall include a] section that identifies and analyzes a comprehensive range of specific mitigation actions and projects being considered to reduce the effects of each hazard, with particular emphasis on new and existing buildings and infrastructure. For each identified hazard, goals and objectives were provided as part of the mitigation strategy. The strategies were compiled into categories depending on the hazard they are related to. The strategies were then prioritized. For the 2022 update, a mitigation catalog was developed to provide a comprehensive range of specific mitigation actions to be considered. A table with the analysis of mitigation actions by type and hazard was used in jurisdictional annexes to the plan. Mitigation action worksheets with an alternative project evaluation were prepared for FEMA-eligible projects. Requirement: §201.6(c)(3)(ii): [The mitigation strategy] must also address the jurisdiction’s participation in the National Flood Insurance Program, and continued compliance with the program’s requirements, as appropriate. Each municipality identified an action stating their commitment to maintain compliance and good standing under the program. Each municipality identified an action stating their commitment to maintain compliance and good standing under the program. Requirement: §201.6(c)(3)(iii): [The mitigation strategy shall describe] how the actions identified in section (c)(3)(ii) will be prioritized, implemented, and administered by the local jurisdiction. Prioritization shall include a special Each recommended action was prioritized using a qualitative methodology based on the objectives the project will meet, the timeline for completion, how the project will be funded, the impact of the project, the A revised methodology based on the STAPLEE criteria and using new and updated data was used for the 2022 plan update. The 14 criteria were used to evaluate each potential mitigation action. The evaluation SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 1-7 2022 Update 44 CFR Requirement 2017 Plan 2022 Updated Plan emphasis on the extent to which benefits are maximized according to a cost benefit review of the proposed projects and their associated costs. benefits of the project, and the costs of the project. included a qualitative benefits and cost review. The results of the evaluation were used to identify the actions to include in the plan and assist with the prioritization. Requirement §201.6(c)(4)(i): [The plan maintenance process shall include a] section describing the method and schedule of monitoring, evaluating, and updating the mitigation plan within a five- year cycle. The 2017 plan details a plan maintenance strategy stating that the plan will be revised and maintained as required. The 2022 plan details a plan maintenance strategy similar to that of the initial plan. Requirement §201.6(c)(4)(ii): [The plan shall include a] process by which local governments incorporate the requirements of the mitigation plan into other planning mechanisms such as comprehensive or capital improvement plans, when appropriate. The 2017 plan details recommendations for incorporating the plan into other planning mechanisms. The 2022 plan details recommendations for incorporating the plan into other planning mechanisms such as the following: • Comprehensive/Master Plan. • Emergency Response Plan/ Emergency Operations Plan. • Capital Improvement Programs. • Municipal Code. Requirement §201.6(c)(4)(iii): [The plan maintenance process shall include a] discussion on how the community will continue public participation in the plan maintenance process. The 2017 plan details a strategy for continuing public involvement. The 2017 plan maintenance strategy was carried over to the 2022 plan. Requirement §201.6(c)(5): [The local hazard mitigation plan shall include] documentation that the plan has been formally adopted by the governing body of the jurisdiction requesting approval of the plan (e.g., City Council, County Commissioner, Tribal Council). The County and participating jurisdictions adopted the 2017 HMP. The 2022 plan achieves DMA compliance for Galveston County and all participating jurisdictions. Resolutions for each partner adopting the plan can be found in Appendix A of this volume. SECTION 2: PLANNING PROCESS Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 2-1 2022 Update SECTION 2. PLANNING PROCESS 2.1 INTRODUCTION This section includes a description of the planning process used to update the 2022 Galveston County, Texas Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP, also referred herein as the Hazard Mitigation Plan or the plan), including how it was prepared, who was involved in the process, and how the public was involved. To ensure that the plan meets requirements of the DMA 2000 and that the planning process would have the broad and effective support of the County, regional and local stakeholders, and the public, an approach to the planning process and plan documentation was developed to achieve the following: • The HMP is multi-jurisdictional and considers natural and human-caused hazards facing Galveston County, thereby satisfying the natural hazards mitigation planning requirements specified in the DMA 2000. • Galveston County invited all municipalities in the County to join with them in the preparation of the Galveston County HMP. The County and all municipalities are participating in the HMP as indicated in Table 2-1 below. • The HMP was developed following the process outlined by the DMA 2000, FEMA regulations, and prevailing FEMA and TDEM guidance. Following this process ensures all the requirements are met and support HMP review Table 2-1. Participating Galveston County Jurisdictions Jurisdictions Galveston County Bayou Vista (C) Kemah (C) Clear Lake Shores (C) La Marque (C) Dickinson (C) League City (C) Friendswood (C) Santa Fe (C) Hitchcock (C) Tiki Island (V) Jamaica Beach (C) The Galveston County HMP update was written using the best available information obtained from a wide variety of sources. Throughout the HMP update process, a concerted effort was made to gather information from municipal and regional agencies and staff, as well as stakeholders, federal and state agencies, and the residents of the County. The Steering Committee solicited information from local agencies and individuals with specific knowledge of certain hazards and past historical events. In addition, the Steering Committee took into consideration planning and zoning codes, ordinances, and recent land use planning decisions. The hazard mitigation strategies identified in this HMP update were developed through an extensive planning process involving local, county, and regional agencies, residents, and stakeholders. This section of the plan describes the mitigation planning process, including (1) Organization of the Planning Process; (2) Stakeholder Outreach and Involvement; (3) Integration of Existing Data, Plans, and Technical Information; (4) Integration with Existing Planning Mechanisms and Programs; and (5) Continued Public Involvement. SECTION 2: PLANNING PROCESS Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 2-2 2022 Update 2.2 ORGANIZATION OF THE PLANNING PROCESS Many parties supported the preparation of this HMP update: County officials, municipal officials, the Ste ering Committee, Planning Partnership, stakeholders, and planning consultant. This planning process does not represent the start of hazard risk management in the County; rather it is part of an ongoing process that various State, County and local agencies and individuals have continued to embrace. A summary of the past and ongoing mitigation efforts is provided in Section 6 (Mitigation Strategy), as well as in Volume II Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes), to give an historical perspective of the County and local activities implemented to reduce vulnerability to hazards in the planning area. This section of the plan identifies how the planning process was organized with the many planning partners involved and outlines the major activities that were conducted in the development of this HMP update. 2.2.1 Organization of Planning Partnership Recognizing the need to manage risk within the County, and to meet the requirements of the DMA 2000, the Galveston County Office of Emergency Management led the update to the 201 7 Galveston County HMP. On March 18, 2020, Galveston County Office of Emergency Management signed the Grantee-Subgrantee Agreement (PDMC-PL-06-TX-2019-010) between the State of Texas and Galveston County for funds to update the Galveston County HMP. The period of performance for this grant is from October 1, 2018 and ending April 1, 2022. Project management and grant administration has been the responsibility of the Galveston County Office of Emergency Management. The County has been proactive in supporting natural hazard mitigation. This update supported implementation of projects, provided the basis of the initial mitigation strategy update, and formed problem statements to focus efforts on identifying high priority mitigation projects to reduce vulnerability to hazards of concern for the planning area. The County selected a contract planning consultant (Tetra Tech Inc. – Parsippany, NJ) to guide the County and participating jurisdictions through the HMP update process. A contract between Tetra Tech Inc. (Tetra Tech) and the County was executed in August 2021. Specifically, Tetra Tech, the “contract consultant”, was tasked with: • Assisting with the organization of a Steering Committee and Planning Partnership. • Assisting with the development and implementation of a public and stakeholder outreach program. • Data collection. • Facilitation and attendance at meetings (Steering Committee, Planning Partnership, stakeholder, public and other). • Review and update of the hazards of concern, and hazard profiling and risk assessment. • Assistance with the review and update of mitigation planning goals and objectives. • Assistance with the review of progress of past mitigation strategies. • Assistance with the screening of mitigation actions and the identification of appropriate actions. • Assistance with the prioritization of mitigation actions. • Authoring of the draft and final HMP documents. On September 20, 2021, Galveston County Office of Emergency Management notified all municipalities within the County of the pending planning process and invited them to formally participate. Municipalities were provided with a copy of the Planning Partner Expectations and asked to formally notify the County of their intent SECTION 2: PLANNING PROCESS Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 2-3 2022 Update to participate. Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes) and Appendix B (Participation Documentation) detail contributions provided by the municipality. To facilitate HMP development, with support from their contract planning consultant, Galveston County developed a Steering Committee to provide guidance and direction to the planning effort, and to ensure the resulting document will be embraced both politically and by the constituency within the planning area. The Steering Committee consisted of county and local officials (refer to Table 2-2 for a list of Steering Committee members). Specifically, the Steering Committee was charged with: Providing guidance and overseeing the planning process on behalf of the general planning partnership. • Attending and participating in Steering Committee meetings. • Establish a timeline for completion of the plan. • Assisting with the development and completion of certain planning elements, including: • Reviewing and updating the hazards of concern, • Developing a public and stakeholder outreach program, • Assuring that the data and information used in the plan update process is the best available • Reviewing and updating the hazard mitigation goals and objectives, • Identification and screening of appropriate mitigation strategies and activities; and • Reviewing and commenting on plan documents prior to submission to TDEM and FEMA. • Ensure that the plan meets the requirements of DMA 2000, FEMA, and TDEM guidance. • The organizational structure was successfully implemented for the 2022 HMP updated consistent with the development of the initial 2017 planning process. The Steering Committee provided guidance and leadership, oversight of the planning process, and acted as the point of contact for all participating jurisdictions and the various interest groups in the planning area. The members of the Steering Committee worked to maintain continuity of the process throughout the process, to overcome the issues created by the COVID-19 pandemic. Table 2-2. Steering Committee Members Name Title Organization Laura Norman Deputy Emergency Management Coordinator; HMP Coordinator for Planning Process Galveston County Office of Emergency Management James Gentile Director of Contract Services Galveston County Contract Services Julie Diaz Director Galveston County Parks and Cultural Services Lee Crowder Road Administrator Galveston County Roads and Bridges Martha Lee Assistant Director Galveston County Parks and Cultural Services Michael Shannon County Engineer Galveston County Engineering & Right of Way Randy Valcin Director of Public Health Surveillance Galveston County Health District William Riordan Facilities Director Galveston County Facilities As part of the initial outreach to each municipality, the County outlined the planning partner expectations that outlined the responsibilities of the participants and asked each municipality to respond to Galveston County OEM if they wish to participate. By agreeing to Galveston County, each municipality authorized the Steering Committee to represent the municipality in the completion of certain portions of the planning elements. All municipalities in the County agreed to participate. Table 2-3 lists the current members of the Steering Committee, at the time of this HMP’s publication. Please note that Steering Committee members are also part SECTION 2: PLANNING PROCESS Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 2-4 2022 Update of the overall project Planning Partnership, fulfilling these responsibilities on behalf of Galveston County. This planning partnership (Steering and Planning Committees) were charged with the following: • Represent their jurisdiction throughout the planning process and assure participation expectations are met by their community. • Assure participation of all department and functions within their jurisdiction that have a stake in mitigation (e.g., planning, engineering, code enforcement, police and emergency services, public works). • Assist in gathering information for inclusion in the HMP update, including the use of previously developed reports and data. • Support and promote the public involvement process. • Report on progress of mitigation actions identified in prior or existing HMPs, as applicable. • Identify, develop, and prioritize appropriate mitigation initiatives. • Report on progress of integration of prior or existing HMPs into other planning processes and municipal operations. • Develop and author a jurisdictional annex for their jurisdiction. • Review, amend, and approve all sections of the plan update when requested. • Adopt, implement, and maintain the plan update Table 2-3. Galveston County Hazard Mitigation Planning Partnership (Steering Committee and Municipalities) Jurisdiction Name Title Jurisdiction Representative Steering Committee Galveston County Office of Emergency Management Laura Norman Deputy Emergency Management Coordinator; HMP Coordinator for Planning Process X Galveston County Contract Services James Gentile Director of Contract Services X Galveston County Parks and Cultural Services Julie Diaz Director X Martha Lee Assistant Director X Galveston County Roads and Bridges Lee Crowder Road Administrator X Galveston County Engineering & Right of Way Michael Shannon County Engineer X Galveston County Health District Randy Valcin Director of Public Health Surveillance X Galveston County Facilities William Riordan Facilities Director X Bayou Vista (C) Jimmie Gillane Emergency Management Coordinator X Clear Lake Shores (C) Brent Spiers City Admin/EMC X Dickinson (C) Greg Trantham Co-Emergency Mgt Coordinator X Derek Hunt Co-Emergency Mgt Coordinator X Friendswood (C) Steven Simmons Deputy Fire Marshal X Hitchcock (C) Wilmon Smith Police Chief X Arnie Cross Director of Community Development X Jamaica Beach (C) Brad Heiman Police Chief X Kemah (C) Walter Gant Emergency Management Coordinator X La Marque (C) Kyle Hunter Emergency Management X League City (C) Ryan Edghill Emergency Management X Santa Fe (C) Bobby Shores Police Captain X Tiki Island (V) Graham George Emergency Management Coordinator X SECTION 2: PLANNING PROCESS Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 2-5 2022 Update Ultimately, jurisdictional participation is evidenced by a completed annex (chapter) of the HMP (Section 9) wherein the jurisdictions have identified their planning points of contact, evaluated their risk to the hazards of concern, identified their capabilities to effect mitigation in their community, and identified and prioritized an appropriate suite of mitigation initiatives, actions, and projects to mitigate their natural hazard risk; and eventually by the adoption of the updated plan via resolution. Appendix B (Participation Documentation) identifies those individuals who represented their jurisdictions during this planning effort and indicates how they contributed to the planning process. This matrix is intended to give a broad overview of who attended meetings and when input was provided. All participants were encouraged to attend the Kick-off Meeting, Risk Assessment Meeting, and Mitigation Action Workshop. During the planning process the planning consultant contacted each participant to offer support, explain the process, meet individually to collect updated information and to facilitate the submittal and review of critical documents. All municipalities actively participate in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and have designated NFIP Floodplain Administrators (FPA). All known FPAs were informed of the planning process, were provided the opportunity to review the plan including the jurisdictional annex and provide direct input to the plan update. Local FPAs are identified in the Administrative and Technical portions of the jurisdictional annexes in Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes). 2.2.2 Planning Activities Members of the Planning Partnership (individually and as a whole), as well as key stakeholders, convened and/or communicated regularly to share information and participate in workshops to identify hazards; assess risks; review existing inventories of and identify new critical facilities; assist in updating and developing new mitigation goals and strategies; and provide continuity through the process to ensure that natural hazards vulnerability information and appropriate mitigation strategies were incorporated. All members of the Steering Committee and Planning Partnership had the opportunity to review the draft plan and supported interaction with other stakeholders and assisted with public involvement efforts. A summary of committee meetings (Steering Committee and Planning Partnership) held and key milestones met during the development of the HMP update is included in Table 2-4 that also identifies which DMA 2000 requirements the activities satisfy. Documentation of meetings (e.g., agendas, sign-in sheets, meeting notes) are in Appendix C (Meeting Documentation). Table 2-4 identifies only the formal meetings held during plan development and does not reflect all planning activities conducted by individuals and groups throughout the planning process. In addition to these meetings, there was a great deal of communication between the County, committee members, and the contract consultant through individual local meetings, electronic mail (email), and by phone. Table 2-4. Summary of Mitigation Planning Activities and Efforts Date DMA 2000 Requirement Description of Activity Participants September 10, 2021 2 Pre-Kick Off Meeting with County: Plan timing and administration; Data needs and sharing; Hazards of concern; Dates and next steps County OEM, Tetra Tech September 16, 2021 2 Steering Committee Meeting #1: Introduce Steering Committee to the HMP update process, discuss mitigation planning, project organization, roles and responsibilities, data collection, hazards of concern, and schedule of plan. County OEM, County Engineer, County Roads and Bridges, County Parks, County Facilities, and Tetra Tech SECTION 2: PLANNING PROCESS Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 2-6 2022 Update Date DMA 2000 Requirement Description of Activity Participants September 20, 2021 2 All municipalities invited to participate in the planning process Galveston County OEM, all municipal governments September 29, 2021 2, 1a, 1b Municipal Kick-Off Meeting/ Planning Partnership Meeting #1: open to the public Introduce Planning Partnership to the HMP update process, discuss mitigation planning, project organization, roles and responsibilities, data collection, hazards of concern, HMP update process and municipal worksheets, and schedule of plan. Galveston County, Bayou Vista, City of Clear Lake Shores, City of Dickinson, City of Hitchcock, City of La Marque, League City, Santa Fe, Tiki Island, Gulf Coast Center, City of Texas, Port of Texas Security Council, National Weather Service, Bolivar Peninsula Special Utility District, Clear Creek Independent School District, Dallas Independent School District, Texas City Independent School District, Texas A&M University at Galveston, Friendswood Medical Outreach, Tetra Tech November 18, 2021 2, 4a Steering Committee Meeting #2: Review project schedule and status, hazards of concern, critical facilities and lifelines, goals, and objectives, SWOO exercise and next steps County OEM, County Roads and Bridges, County Parks, County Contract Services, County Health, Tetra Tech December 2, 2021 2, 4a, 4b Mitigation Action Workshop: Review project schedule and status, hazards of concern, critical facilities and lifelines, goals, and objectives, SWOO exercise and next steps. County OEM, Galveston County, Galveston County Engineering Department, Friendswood, Jamaica Beach, La Marque, League City, Santa Fe, Tetra Tech December 21, 2021 2, 3a, 3b, 3c, 3d, 3e Risk Assessment Presentation: Review project schedule and status, present risk ranking, and go over how to review and provide input County OEM, Tetra Tech January 25, 2022 2 Draft Plan Review Presentation: Overview of entire plan and sections; confirmed plan maintenance schedule County OEM, Dickinson, Clear Lake Shores, League City, Jamaica Beach, Santa Fe, Friendswood, Congressman Weber’s Office, and Tetra Tech TBD 1b, 2 Draft HMP posted to public project website; all plan participants were notified and asked to assist with the public outreach including social media. Neighboring counties and stakeholders were notified of the posting as well. Public and Stakeholders TBD 2 HMP submitted to TDEM and FEMA Region VI TDEM, FEMA Region VI Upon plan approval by FEMA 1a Plan adoption by resolution by the governing bodies of all participating municipalities All Plan Participants Note: All activities/efforts were conducted during the National Emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic. TBD = to be determined. Each number in column 2 identifies specific DMA 2000 requirements, as follows: 1a – Prerequisite – Adoption by the Local Governing Body 1b – Public Participation 2 – Planning Process – Documentation of the Planning Process 3a – Risk Assessment – Identifying Hazards 3b – Risk Assessment – Profiling Hazard Events 3c – Risk Assessment – Assessing Vulnerability: Identifying Assets 3d – Risk Assessment – Assessing Vulnerability: Estimating Potential Losses 3e – Risk Assessment – Assessing Vulnerability: Analyzing Development Trends 4a – Mitigation Strategy – Local Hazard Mitigation Goals 4b – Mitigation Strategy – Identification and Analysis of Mitigation Measures 4c – Mitigation Strategy – Implementation of Mitigation Measures 5a – Plan Maintenance Procedures – Monitoring, Evaluating, and Updating the Plan 5b – Plan Maintenance Procedures – Implementation through Existing Programs 5c – Plan Maintenance Procedures – Continued Public Involvement SECTION 2: PLANNING PROCESS Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 2-7 2022 Update 2.3 STAKEHOLDER OUTREACH AND INVOLVEMENT Stakeholders are the individuals, agencies, and jurisdictions that have a vested interest in the recommendations of the HMP, including all planning partners. Diligent efforts were made to assure broad regional, county, and local representation in this planning process. To that end, a comprehensive list of stakeholders was develop ed with the support of the Planning Partnership. Stakeholder outreach was performed early on, and continually throughout the planning process. However, due to the limitations on participation posed by the pandemic and the strains on time and resources for many local governments and other community organizations starting in 2020 through present, participation of stakeholders at the municipal level was limited. In accordance with FEMA guiding principles for inclusive participation at various levels, the planning team will place a high priority on an expanded effort on stakeholder participation with local planning committees in future plan updates. This subsection discusses the various stakeholders that were invited to participate in the development of this HMP update, and how these stakeholders participated and contributed. This summary listing cannot possibly represent the total of stakeholders that were aware of and/or contributed to this HMP update, as outreach efforts were being made, both formally and informally, throughout the process by the many planning partners involved in the effort, and documentation of all such efforts is impossible. Instead, this summary is intended to demonstrate the scope and breadth of the stakeholder outreach efforts made during the plan update process: • All Planning Partnership meetings were open to the public and advertised via the Galveston County website (https://www.galvestoncountytx.gov/). • Municipalities were provided outreach materials to post on their websites, social media platforms, and distribute printed materials. • Distributed a stakeholder survey and neighboring county survey to provide input regarding vulnerabilities, capabilities, and mitigation projects. • Posted draft plan on the Galveston County website and advertised using social media platforms. • Email correspondence to regional stakeholders and neighboring counties to review the draft HMP and provide input. 2.3.1 Federal, State, and County Agencies The following describes the various departments and agencies that were involved during the planning process. Federal Agencies Please see Appendix B (Participation Documentation) for further details regarding federal agency participation. All responses to the stakeholder surveys may be found in Appendix D (Public and Stakeholder Outreach). FEMA Region VI: Provided updated planning guidance; conducted plan review. National Weather Service (NWS): Provided information regarding hazard identification and the risk assessment; attended planning partnership meetings. Additionally, the NWS provides weather briefings, forecasts, and incident support to Galveston County. They provide live webinars to the County and municipalities ahead of floods, hurricanes, and severe weather. They also support weather-sensitive incidents including hazardous materials releases. Information regarding hazard identification and the risk assessment for this plan update were requested and received or incorporated by reference from the following agencies and organizations: • National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) • National Hurricane Center (NHC) SECTION 2: PLANNING PROCESS Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 2-8 2022 Update • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) • Storm Prediction Center (SPC) • U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) • U.S. Census Bureau • U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) • U.S. Department of Health and Human Services • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) • U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) State Agencies Please see Appendix B (Participation Documentation) for further details regarding state agency participation. All responses to the surveys may be found in Appendix D (Public and Stakeholder Outreach). Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM): Administered the planning grant; provided updated planning guidance; provided review of the draft HMP update. Texas Department of Transportation (TX DOT): Invited to attend planning partnership meetings and provide input through the stakeholder survey. County Departments Several county departments were represented on the Steering Committee and involved in the HMP update planning process. Appendix B (Participation Matrix) provides further details regarding regional and local stakeholder agencies. All responses to the stakeholder surveys are in Appendix D (Public and Stakeholder Outreach). Refer to Section 5 (Capability Assessment) for details on each department and their roles during the HMP update and their overall responsibilities in Galveston County. • Galveston County Office of Emergency Management • Galveston County Contract Services • Galveston County Parks and Cultural Services • Galveston County Roads and Bridges • Galveston County Engineering & Right of Way • Galveston County Health District • Galveston County Facilities 2.3.2 Regional and Local Stakeholders All Planning Partnership meetings were announced on the Galveston County HMP project website and posted on social media to invite residents and stakeholders. In addition, the County and municipal representatives emailed regional and local stakeholders requesting their participation in stakeholder sector-specific surveys to provide input on vulnerable assets, capabilities, and current/potential future mitigation projects; and invited to provide input on the draft HMP. Refer to Appendix C (Participation Documentation) for further details regarding regional and local stakeholder agency attendance at meetings and Appendix D for additional details on the public and stakeholder outreach, including responses received to the surveys. Academia Schools, universities, and other academia institutions were invited to attend planning process meetings and asked to complete the stakeholder survey. The following provided input in person or virtually at Planning Partnership meetings, as well as through the County’s online stakeholder survey: SECTION 2: PLANNING PROCESS Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 2-9 2022 Update • Clear Creek Independent School District • Dickinson Independent School District • Friendswood Independent School District • Galveston College • Galveston Independent School District • High Island Independent School District • Hitchcock Independent School District • Santa Fe Independent School District • Texas A&M University at Galveston • Texas City Independent School District • University of Texas Medical Branch Business and Commercial Interests Businesses and commercial industries in the County were invited to take the stakeholder survey and provide input to the planning process. The following provided input in person or virtually at Planning Partnership meetings, as well as through the County’s online stakeholder survey: • Port of Texas City – attended planning partnership meetings • Port of Galveston Emergency Services All state, county, and local emergency service providers (police, fire, and EMS) were invited to take the stakeholder survey and provide input to the planning process. The following provided input in person or virtually at Planning Partnership meetings, as well as through the County’s online stakeholder survey: • Galveston County Emergency Communications District • Galveston County Emergency Communications District #2 • Port of Texas City Security Council • Santa Fe Fire and Rescue • San Leon Volunteer Fire Department Highway and Public Works All state, county, and local highway and public works departments were notified of the Highway and Public Work’s stakeholder survey and invited to provide input on the draft HMP. In addition, many of the participating municipalities had representatives from their highway and public works departments representing them on the planning partnership. The following provided input to the planning process via the County’s online stakeholder survey: • Galveston County Roads and Bridges – attended meetings • Galveston County Engineering & Right of Way • Galveston County Facilitates & Maintenance • Galveston County Parks & Cultural Services • Texas Department of Transportation SECTION 2: PLANNING PROCESS Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 2-10 2022 Update Hospitals and Healthcare All hospitals and healthcare facilities and providers located in County were invited to take the stakeholder survey and provide input to the planning process. The following provided input in person or virtually at Planning Partnership meetings, as well as through the County’s online stakeholder survey: • Galveston County Health Department • Galveston County Health District Office of Environmental Health Programs • Gulf Coast Center • University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston Utilities Utility providers in the County were invited to take the stakeholder survey and provide input to the planning process. The following provided input in person or virtually at Planning Partnership meetings, as well as through the County’s online stakeholder survey: • Bolivar Peninsula Special Utility District • Gulf Coast Water Authority • Galveston County Water Control and Improvement District #1 • Galveston County Water Control and Improvement District #19 Adjacent Counties Galveston County has made an effort to keep surrounding counties and municipalities appraised of the project and allowed the opportunity to provide input to this planning process. Specifically, the following adjoining and nearby county representatives were contacted in September 2021 to invite them to provide input to the planning process. In January 2022, they were invited to complete a neighboring county survey. In February 2022, they were informed of the posting of the draft plan and invited to review and provide feedback. The following provided input in person or virtually at Planning Partnership meetings, as well as through the County’s online neighboring county survey: • Brazoria County • Chambers County • Harris County – completed the survey and provided feedback regarding their involvement with Galveston County. 2.3.3 Stakeholder Survey Summary The following provides a summary of the results and feedback received by stakeholders who completed the survey. Feedback was reviewed by the Steering Committee and integrated where appropriate in the plan. Stakeholder Survey The stakeholder survey was designed to help identify general needs for hazard mitigation and resiliency within Galveston County from its perspective, as well as to identify specific projects that may be included in the mitigation plan. It was distributed to identified stakeholders, including the various county and municipal departments and agencies in the county. As of January 28, 2022, 8 stakeholders completed the survey, 40% of which in the emergency services category, 20% in academic/research, 20% in public work, and 20% in utilities. SECTION 2: PLANNING PROCESS Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 2-11 2022 Update Hazard and Damage Identification Half of respondents said the buildings/facilities/structures they have worked in and/or are responsible for have been impacted by a hazard; 25% said no and 25% were unsure. Those that experienced damage stated that the structures had wind and flood damage from hurricanes, with some reporting complete destruction of buildings. When asked what areas are most vulnerable to hazards in the County, answers included storm surge flooding, hazardous material releases, flooding from heavy rainfall, structures not built to withstand hurricane impacts, exposed water lines, and road/underpass flooding. Over 60% of respondents believe the faci lities and infrastructure for their organization are equipped to handle a disaster and/or are resilient to damages; 25% sa id no; and 12/5% says maybe. Community Preparedness A majority of respondents (75%) stated that their organization has an emergency operations plan. Half of the respondents stated they are covered by a Continuity of Operations Plan, a Continuity of Government Plan. One respondent indicated that they have risk and vulnerability assessments and one was unsure of what plans are available in their organization. Figure 2-1. Plans of Stakeholders Project Identification Respondents identified the following projects or programs that could reduce their organization’s vulnerability to damages, including operation of service: • Reduce vulnerability to water systems • Storage and emergency operations building to place equipment and materials prior to a hurricane or other event to allow for access during the event SECTION 2: PLANNING PROCESS Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 2-12 2022 Update • Relocating water lines to reduce risk of line being severed during a storm • Improvements to drainage systems The following were identified as recently implemented projects that reduced vulnerabilities to hazard events: • Elevated operations center in Dickinson • Elevated 1-million-gallon storage tank to provide drinking water during power outages or damages Respondents were also asked to detail how their organization has been involved in response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Respondents detailed the following: • Weather briefings to support outdoor testing and vaccination operations • Testing, vaccinations, contact tracing, and data collection • Providing potable water throughout the pandemic • Testing center for fire, police, EMS, and municipal employees • Emotional support and resources The following services and infrastructure needs were identified by respondents as needing to be built or improved upon within their communities in order to mitigate damages experienced by the pandemic: • Crew living quarters • Air filtration systems • Water and wastewater operations Neighboring County Survey The neighbor survey was sent to the surrounding counties of Galveston County due to the ir proximity to and because effects of hazard events that impact Galveston County would be similar to that of their neighbors. As of January 28, 2022, one county completed the survey. The respondent stated Galveston County is involved in their county’s comprehensive emergency operations planning. Together, they are part of UASI, HGAC, MACC and various hurricane and evacuation plans. During emergency operations and disaster response, the counties communicate through conference calls, MACC, and mutual aid requests. They are also part of an evacuation hub plan. 2.4 PUBLIC PARTICIPATION – RESIDENT INVOLVEMENT In order to facilitate better coordination and communication between the Planning Partnership and residents and to involve the public in the planning process, it was determined that meeting dates/locations will be made available to the public via the Galveston County website and social media outlets. The participating partners also feel that community input on the HMP will increase the likelihood of hazard mitigation becoming one of the standard considerations in the evolution and growth of the County. The Planning Partnership has made the following efforts toward public participation in the development and review of the HMP: • All hazard mitigation planning meetings that were open to the public were advertised on the Galveston County website. • An on-line natural hazards preparedness public survey was developed to gauge household preparedness relevant to hazards in the Galveston County and to assess the level of knowledge of tools and techniques to assist in reducing risk and loss of those hazards. The questionnaire asks quantifiable questions about citizen perception of risk, knowledge of mitigation, and support of community programs. The SECTION 2: PLANNING PROCESS Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 2-13 2022 Update questionnaire also asks several demographic questions to help analyze trends. The questionnaire was advertised via social media and available for two months to facilitate public input garnering over 140 responses. The survey results were provided to the Steering Committee to use to identify vulnerabilities and develop mitigation strategies. A summary of survey results is provided in Appendix D (Public and Stakeholder Outreach) of this plan. • Results from the natural hazards preparedness survey were used to inform the action plans of the planning partners. To address the most requested types of projects that residents wanted local and county agencies to be doing, many planning partners included actions to improve and strengthen infrastructure, improve the damage resistance of utilities, buy out flood prone properties, improve protective structures, and provide greater control over development in high hazard areas. • All plan participants were requested to advertise the public survey via local homepage links, and other available public announcement methods (e.g., Facebook, Twitter, email blasts). Refer to Appendix D which highlights these local efforts. • Starting in February 2022, draft sections of the plan (as available) were posted on the County’s website for public review and comment. • Once approved by TDEM/FEMA, the final HMP will be available on the County website. 2.5 INCORPORATION OF EXISTING PLANS, STUDIES, REPORTS, AND TECHNICAL INFORMATION The Galveston County HMP strives to use the best available technical information, plans, studies, and reports throughout the plan process to support hazard profiling; risk and vulnerability assessment; review and evaluation of mitigation capabilities; and the identification, development, and prioritization of county and local mitigation strategies. The asset and inventory data used for the risk and vulnerability assessments is presented in the County Profile (Section 3). Details of the source of this data, along with technical informati on on how the data was used to develop the risk and vulnerability assessment, is presented in the Risk Assessment, specifically in Section 4.1 Methodology and Tools, as well as throughout the hazard profiles in Section 4.3 (Hazard Profiles). Plans, reports, and other technical information were identified and provided directly by the County, participating jurisdictions, and numerous stakeholders involved in the planning effort, as well as through independent research by the planning consultant. The County and participating jurisdictions were tasked with updating the inventory of their Planning and Regulatory capabilities in Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes) and providing relevant planning and regulatory documents, as applicable. Relevant documents, including plans, reports, and ordinances were reviewed to identify the following: • Existing County and municipal capabilities. • Needs and opportunities to develop or enhance capabilities, which may be identified within the County or local mitigation strategies. • Mitigation-related goals or objectives considered in the review and update of the overall Goals and Objectives in Section 6 (Mitigation Strategy). • Proposed, in-progress, or potential mitigation projects, actions, and initiatives to be incorporated into the updated County and local mitigation strategies. The following local regulations, codes, ordinances, and plans were reviewed during this process to develop mitigation planning goals, objectives, and strategies that are consistent across local and regional planning and regulatory mechanisms to accomplish complementary and mutually supportive strategies: SECTION 2: PLANNING PROCESS Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 2-14 2022 Update • Master/Comprehensive Plans • Building Codes • Zoning and Subdivision Ordinances • NFIP Flood Damage Prevention Ordinances • Site Plan Requirements • Stormwater Management Plans • Emergency Management and Response Plans • Land Use and Open Space Plans • Capital Plans • Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan (2018) 2.6 INTEGRATION WITH EXISTING PLANNING MECHANISMS AND PROGRAMS Effective mitigation is achieved when hazard awareness and risk management approaches and strategies become an integral part of public activities and decision-making. Within the Galveston County, there are many existing plans and programs that support hazard risk management, and thus it is critical that this hazard mitigation plan integrate, coordinate with, and complement, those existing plans, and programs. The Capability Assessment section of Section 5 (Capability Assessment) provides a summary and description of the existing plans, programs, and regulatory mechanisms at all levels of government (federal, state, county, and local) that support hazard mitigation within the County. Within each jurisdictional annex in Section 9, the County and each participating jurisdiction identified how they integrated hazard risk management into their existing planning, regulatory, and operational/administrative framework (integration capabilities) and how they intend to promote this integration (integration actions). A further summary of these continued efforts to develop and promote a comprehensive and holistic approach to hazard risk management and mitigation is presented in Section 7 (Plan Maintenance). 2.7 CONTINUED PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT Galveston County and participating jurisdictions are committed to the continued involvement of the public in the hazard mitigation process. This HMP update will be posted online at https://gcoem.org/galveston-county- multi-jurisdiction-hazard-mitigation-plan/. Each jurisdiction’s elected official shall be responsible for receiving, tracking, and filing public comments regarding this HMP update. A notice regarding annual updates of the plan and the location of plan copies will be publicized annually after the Steering Committee’s annual evaluation and posted on the public website at https://gcoem.org/galveston- county-multi-jurisdiction-hazard-mitigation-plan/ The public will have an opportunity to comment on the plan as a part of the annual mitigation planning evaluation process and the next five-year mitigation plan update. The HMP Coordinator is responsible for coordinating the plan evaluation portion of the meeting, soliciting feedback, collecting, and reviewing the comments, and ensuring their incorporation in the five-year plan update as appropriate. The purpose of these meetings would be to provide the public an opportunity to express concerns, opinions, and ideas about the plan. Further details regarding continued public involvement are provided in Section 7 (Plan Maintenance). SECTION 2: PLANNING PROCESS Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 2-15 2022 Update After completion of this plan, implementation and ongoing maintenance will continue to be a function of the Steering Committee. The Steering Committee will review the plan and accept public comment as part of an annual review and as part of five-year mitigation plan updates. A notice regarding annual updates of the plan and the location of plan copies will be publicized annually after the Steering Committee’s annual evaluation and posted on the public web site. Laura Norman, Galveston Count’s Deputy Emergency Management Coordinator, is identified as the Galveston County’s HMP Coordinator in Section 7 (Plan Maintenance), and is responsible for receiving, tracking, and filing public comments regarding this plan. Contact information is: laura.norman@co.galveston.tx.us SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-1 2022 Update SECTION 3. GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE 3.1 GENERAL INFORMATION Prior to European settlement, indigenous peoples inhabited the mainland and island area now known as Galveston County. The first Europeans to lay claim to the area were Spanish and named the area after Viceroy Bernardo de Gálvez. In the early 1800’s, Americans began arriving in the area, but the County was not formally established until 1839. When Texas joined the Union, Galveston was the largest city in Texas (Kleiner 2021). The county commissioners court serves as the governing body in the county. This administrative body was established by the Texas Constitution of 1876 and is comprised of a county judge and four elected commissioners. The major duties of the commissioner’s court involve overseeing county functions in their area. Galveston County is comprised of the cities of: Bayou Vista, Clear Lake Shores, Dickinson, Friendswood, Galveston, Hitchcock, Jamaica Beach, Kemah, La Marque, League City, Santa Fe, Texas City, and the Village of Tiki Island. The City of Galveston is the county seat. The jurisdictions participating in this plan update include all of the unincorporated areas of the County and the incorporated jurisdictions of: • Bayou Vista • Clear Lake Shores • Dickinson • Friendswood • Hitchcock • Jamaica Beach • Kemah • La Marque • League City • Santa Fe • Tiki Island 3.2 MAJOR PAST HAZARD EVENTS Presidential disaster declarations are issued for hazard events that cause more damage than state and local governments can handle without assistance from the federal government. No specific dollar loss threshold has been established for these declarations. A presidential disaster declaration puts operationalizes federal recovery programs to assist disaster victims, businesses, and public entities. Programs can be matched by state programs. Review of presidential disaster declarations helps establish the probability of reoccurrence for each hazard and identify targets for risk reduction. Table 3-1 shows FEMA disaster declarations that have included Galveston County between 2001 and February 2021. Table 3-1. History of Hazard Events in Galveston County, Texas Disaster Number Declaration Date Event Date Incident Type Title DR-1379 June 9, 2001 June 5-20, 2001 Coastal Storm Tx-Tropical Storm Allison-06-06- 2001 DR-1434 September 26, 2002 September 6-30, 2002 Coastal Storm Tropical Storm Fay SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-2 2022 Update Disaster Number Declaration Date Event Date Incident Type Title DR-1479 July 17, 2003 July 15-28, 2003 Hurricane Hurricane Claudette EM-3216 September 2, 2005 August 29-October 1, 2005 Hurricane Hurricane Katrina Evacuation EM-3261 September 21, 2005 September 20-October 14, 2005 Hurricane Hurricane Rita DR-1606 September 24, 2005 September 23-October 14, 2005 Hurricane Hurricane Rita DR-1624 January 11, 2006 November 27, 2005-May 14, 2006 Fire Extreme Wildfire Threat EM-3277 August 18, 2007 August 17-September 5, 2007 Hurricane Hurricane Dean EM-3284 March 14, 2008 March 14-September 1, 2008 Fire Wildfires EM-3290 August 29, 2008 August 27-September 7, 2008 Hurricane Hurricane Gustav DR-1791 September 13, 2008 September 7-October 2, 2008 Hurricane Hurricane Ike EM-3294 September 10, 2008 September 7-26, 2008 Hurricane Hurricane Ike DR-4245 November 25, 2015 October 22-31, 2015 Severe Storm(s) Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight- line Winds, and Flooding DR-4332 August 25, 2017 August 23-September 15, 2017 Hurricane Hurricane Harvey EM-3458 March 13, 2020 January 20, 2020 Biological COVID-19 DR-4485 March 25, 2020 January 20, 2020 Biological COVID-19 Pandemic EM-3530 July 26, 2020 July 25-31, 2020 Hurricane Hurricane Hanna EM-3540 August 24, 2020 August 23-27, 2020 Hurricane Tropical Storms Marco and Laura DR-4572 December 9, 2020 August 23-27, 2020 Hurricane Hurricane Laura EM-3554 February 19, 2021 February 11-21, 2021 Severe Storm(s) Severe Winter Storm DR 4586 February 19, 2021 February 11-21, 2021 Severe Storm(s) Severe Winter Storm 3.3 PHYSICAL SETTING This section presents the physical setting of the County, including land use/land cover, location, climate, hydrography and hydrology, topography, and geology. 3.3.1 Location Galveston County is located on the Gulf Coast of Texas, east of Brazoria County, west of Chambers County and south of Harris County. According to the U. S. Census Bureau, Galveston County has 378 square miles of land area, 495 square miles of water area, and is the 244th largest county in Texas by total area. 3.3.2 Topography and Geology Galveston County is part of the Coastal Prairie physiographic province, underlaid by Deltaic sands and muds in a nearly flat stratum. The topography consists of a nearly flat prairie. Galveston County is located in the Gulf Coast Prairie and Marshes ecoregion of Texas, which is characterized by expansive rolling brushlands and prairies that transition to estuarine marshes and dune environments. The County is a small part of this ecosystem, which stretches from Louisiana to Mexico. The Gulf coastline is characterized by marshy plains, narrow beach ridges, and long barrier islands that separate the mainland coast from the Gulf waters. On the coast, Galveston Island has an elevation of approximately 7 feet, while inland Friendswood is approximately 31 feet. SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-3 2022 Update 3.3.3 Hydrography and Hydrology Galveston County is bordered to the north by Clear Creek, a small river, which forms the boundary with Harris County and empties into Clear Lake, which in turn feeds Galveston Bay. Galveston Bay is the seventh largest estuary in the United States and is connected to the Gulf of Mexico. Two major bayou watersheds are also located in the County. Dickinson Bayou Watershed The Dickinson Bayou watershed encompasses approximately 100 square miles of land that drains water into the bayou. In Galveston County, it encompasses the cities of Dickinson, Friendswood, Kemah, League City, Santa Fe, and Texas City. The Dickinson Bayou Watershed Partnership developed a Bacteria Implementation Plan to reduce the bacteria concentrations in the watershed. The plan addresses on-site sewage facilities (septic systems), wastewater treatment facilities and collection systems, animal waste, restoration and repair of riparian zones, and preservation and restoration of the natural wetlands (Dickinson Bayou Watershed Partnership n.d.). Highland Bayou Coastal Basin The Highland Bayou Coastal Basin is a 120 square mile drainage basin located on mainland Galveston County. Bayou and stream segments consist of non-tidal, tidally influenced, and tidal waters. Fresh water in the bayous is largely precipitation-driven overland flows. Fresh water in the bayous is largely precipitation-driven overland flows. The freshwater bayous transition to estuarine conditions. (Texas A&M AgriLife Extension n.d.). 3.3.4 Climate Galveston County’s temperatures range from an average low of 48.9 degrees in January to an average high of 79.8 degrees in August. The County receives approximately 47 inches of rainfall each year (NWS 2020). The County receives moderating climatic influences due to its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico. 3.3.5 Land Use and Land Cover The prevailing land use types in Galveston County are urban and wetland, which comprise 37.6 percent 26.9 percent, respectively, of the County. Agricultural lands (14.9 percent) and forests (10.3 percent) are smaller land uses, while barren land and water are the minority uses. Table 3-2 summarizes the land use for Galveston County. Figure 3-1 shows the distribution of land use throughout the County. Table 3-2. Land Use Breakdown for Galveston County Land Use Category 2011 Data 2016 Data 2019 Data Acreage Percent of County Acreage Percent of County Acreage Percent of County Agriculture 36,498 14.0% 36,711 14.1% 38,816 14.9% Barren 9,468 3.6% 4,694 1.8% 4,569 1.8% Forest 31,289 12.0% 30,875 11.9% 26,798 10.3% Urban 91,639 35.2% 93,316 35.9% 97,795 37.6% Water 16,072 6.2% 22,459 8.6% 22,207 8.5% Wetland 75,136 28.9% 72,055 27.7% 69,928 26.9% Galveston County (Total) 260,102 100.0% 260,111 100.0% 260,113 100.0% Sources: NLCD 2014, NLCD 2019, NLCD 2021 Note: Changes in total LULC indicates areas where unclassified LULC are now classified SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-4 2022 Update Figure 3-1. 2021 Land Use in Galveston County, Texas SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-5 2022 Update 3.4 POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS According to the 2020 Decennial Census, Galveston County had a population of 350,682 people which represents a significant increase from the 2010 U.S. Census population of 291,309 people. HAZUS demographic data will be used in the loss estimation analyses in Section 4 of this plan. All demographic data in HAZUS corresponds to the 2010 U.S. Census data. Table 3-3 presents the population statistics for Galveston County based on the 2000, 2010, and 2020 U.S. Census data. For the purposes of this plan, the 2020 Census was used where the data was available and supplemented with HAZUS data (representing 2010 data). Table 3-3. Recent Population by Jurisdiction Population Jurisdiction 1990 2000 2010 2020 Bayou Vista 1,320 1,644 1,537 1,631 Clear Lake Shores 1,135 1,205 1,063 1,249 Friendswood 22,809 29,214 35,805 41,213 Hitchcock 5,868 6,386 6,961 7,301 Jamaica Beach 624 1,075 983 1,081 Kemah 1,150 2,330 1,773 2,037 La Marque 14,120 13,682 14,509 18,347 League City 29,903 45,444 83,560 114,392 Santa Fe 8,628 9,548 12,222 13,599 Tiki Island 537 1,016 968 1,065 Unincorporated 131,302 138,614 131,928 148,767 Total 217,396 250,158 291,309 350,682 Source: 2017 Galveston County HMP, U. S. Census Population and Demographic Trends This section discusses population trends to use as a basis for estimating future changes that could result from the seasonal character of the population and significantly change the character of the area. Population trends can provide a basis for making decisions on the type of mitigation approaches to consider and the locations in which these approaches should be applied. This information can also be used to support planning decisions regarding future development in vulnerable areas. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the 2010 population for Galveston County was 291,309 persons, which is a 16.5% increase from the 2000 Census population of 250,158. Over the last 50 years, from 1970 to 2020, the County has seen notable population growth. The largest increase in absolute terms and in percentage was between 2010 and 2020. Table 3-4. Galveston County Population Trends, 1960 to 2020 Year Population Change in Population Percent (%) Population Change 1970 169,812 - - 1980 195,738 25,926 15.2% 1990 217,396 21,658 11.1% 2000 250,158 32,762 15.1% 2010 291,309 41,151 16.5% 2020 350,682 59,373 20.4% Source: 2017 Galveston County HMP, U. S. Census Note: Change in population and percent in population change were calculated from available data. SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-6 2022 Update The Texas Demographic Center has produced population estimates for the region that were last updated in 2018 based on 2010 Census data. The estimates show projected growth between 7.54 and 9.36 percent every five years from 2025 to 2050. Figure 3-2. Galveston County Population Projected Change, 2025 to 2050 Source: (Texas Demographic Center Population Projections 2018) 3.4.1 Vulnerable Populations DMA 2000 requires that HMPs consider socially vulnerable populations. These populations can be more susceptible to hazard events, based on a number of factors including their physical and financial ability to react or respond during a hazard and the location and construction quality of their housing. For the purposes of this study, vulnerable populations shall include (1) the elderly (persons aged 65 and over) and (2) those living in low-income households. Table 3-5. Galveston Vulnerable Population Statistics Municipality ACS 2019 Total Population 65+ % Population 65+ Low-Income Population % Low-Income Population of Total Galveston County 342,139 51,182 15% 36,764 10.9% Source: 2019 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates (2021) * Individuals below poverty level (Census poverty threshold for a 3-person family unit is approximately $18,500) It is noted that the Census data for household income provided in HAZUS includes two ranges ($0-10,000 and $10,000-$20,000/year) that were totaled to provide the “low-income” data used in this study. This does not correspond exactly with the “poverty” thresholds established by the 2019 U.S. Census Bureau, which identifies households with three adults and no children with an annual household income below $19,998 per year, or households with two adults and one child with an annual household income below $17,622 per year as “low income” for this region. This difference is not believed to be significant for the purposes of this planning effort. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 2025 - 2030 2030 - 2035 2035 - 2040 2040 - 2045 2045 - 2050% 10-Year Change in PopulationGalveston County SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-7 2022 Update The 2019 American Community Survey data identified approximately 36,764 people in Galveston County living below the poverty line. This represents nearly 11 percent of the population. Though this is an absolute increase from 36,063 in 2010, the proportion of individuals in poverty has declined by 1.6% since 2010. Income The 2019 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates provides that the median household income in Galveston County was $74,977. The U.S. Census Bureau identifies households with two adults and one child with an annual household income below $17,622 per year as low income (U. S. Census 2021). The 2019 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates indicates that nearly 11 percent of persons are below the poverty level within the County. The spatial U.S. Census data for household income provided in HAZUS includes two ranges (less than $10,000 and $10,000-$20,000/year) that were totaled to provide the low-income data used in this study. This does not correspond exactly with the poverty thresholds established by the 2019 U.S. Census Bureau data. This difference is not believed to be significant for the purposes of this planning effort; therefore, for the exposure and loss estimations in the risk assessment, the 2010 U.S. Census data in HAZUS is reported. Physically or Mentally Disabled According to the Centers for Disease Control, “A disability is any condition of the body or mind (impairment) that makes it more difficult for the person with the condition to do certain activities (activity limitation) and interact with the world around them (participation restrictions) (CDC 2020).” Cognitive impairments can increase the level of difficulty that individuals might face during an emergency and reduce an individual’s capacity to receive, process, and respond to emergency information or warnings. Individuals with a physical or sensory disability can face issues of mobility, sight, hearing, or reliance on specialized medical equipment. According to the 2019 American Community Survey, 11.1 percent of residents in Galveston County are living with a disability. Non-English Speakers Individuals who are not fluent or working proficiency in English are vulnerable because they can have difficulty with understanding information being conveyed to them. Cultural differences also can add complexity to how information is being conveyed to populations with limited proficiency of English (CDC 2021). According to the 2019 American Community Survey, 22% of the County’s population over the age of 5 primarily speaks a language other than English at home. Approximately, 6.6% of the population over the age of 5 speaks limited English. 3.4.2 General Building Stock For this Plan, the default general building stock in Hazus was updated and replaced with a custom building inventory for Galveston both at the aggregate and structure level. The building stock update was performed using 2021 certified assessor data from the Galveston Central Appraisal District (GCAD). The replacement cost value was calculated using the square footage value of each building and RS Means 2021 data. For the purposes of this plan, there are approximately 209,947 structures identified through data provided by the GCAD. These structures account for a replacement cost value of approximately $166.3 billion (structure and contents). Estimated content value was calculated by using 50-percent of the residential replacement cost value, and 100-percent of the non-residential replacement values. Using this methodology, there is approximately $70.1 billion in contents within these structures. Table 3-6 presents building and improvement values in the County. SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-8 2022 Update Table 3-6. Number of Buildings and Improvement Value in Galveston County Jurisdiction All Occupancies Count Replacement Cost Value (Structure Only) Replacement Cost Value (Contents Only) Total Replacement Cost Value (Structure + Contents) Clear Lake Shores (C) 1,155 $519,006,216.88 $385,556,151.78 $904,562,368.66 Dickinson (C) 10,351 $3,924,480,999.53 $2,677,229,646.10 $6,601,710,645.63 Friendswood (C) 14,891 $6,532,042,745.35 $4,283,413,638.77 $10,815,456,384.12 Hitchcock (C) 5,452 $2,606,611,538.31 $1,985,425,113.55 $4,592,036,651.86 Jamaica Beach (C) 1,291 $292,462,937.69 $165,742,901.13 $458,205,838.82 Kemah (C) 1,634 $1,410,211,778.23 $1,221,490,327.37 $2,631,702,105.60 La Marque (C) 10,749 $4,518,194,733.81 $3,409,097,788.47 $7,927,292,522.28 League City (C) 46,742 $18,876,791,173.65 $12,361,183,420.45 $31,237,974,594.10 Santa Fe (C) 7,942 $2,826,459,977.04 $2,005,168,185.08 $4,831,628,162.13 Bayou Vista (C) 1,365 $287,902,599.47 $157,451,487.86 $445,354,087.33 Tiki Island (V) 868 $240,413,556.57 $124,795,588.86 $365,209,145.44 Galveston County (Total) 209,947 $96,229,561,611.86 $70,092,043,076.59 $166,321,604,688.46 Sources: Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing 2018; RS Means 2021 Notes: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. RCV = Land Use and Population Trends This Hazard Mitigation Plan provides a general overview of population, land use, and types of development occurring within the study area. An understanding of these development trends can assist in planning for further development and ensuring that appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures are in place to protect human health and community infrastructure. 3.4.3 Land Use Trends While the County does not have a comprehensive plan to cite land use trends, patterns emerge from the statistics in this plan. The amount of urban land has been increasing over the past decade, while the amount of barren land, forest land, and wetland has decreased. While the amount of agricultural land has increase slightly, the workforce in the County is predominantly in the retail and healthcare sectors. The aging population is also a trend that may impact land use in the County. Economy The U.S. Census Bureau’s Economic Census provides an annual series of sub-national economic data by industry covering the majority of the country’s economic activity. According to the 2019 Galveston County Economic Census, the retail sector has the largest number of employees, while the accommodation and food services sector has the largest number of employees. The healthcare and social assistance industry comprises the highest payroll (nearly $628 million) and the second-highest number of jobs. Table 3-7. 2017 Economic Census for Galveston County, Texas Sector # of Establishments # of employees Annual payroll ($1,000) Utilities 11 300 29,067 Manufacturing 162 5,481 558,130 Wholesale trade 218 1,952 107,130 SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-9 2022 Update Sector # of Establishments # of employees Annual payroll ($1,000) Retail trade 944 14,163 384,500 Transportation and warehousing 156 3,132 144,796 Information 77 742 37,892 Finance and insurance 380 4,373 256,469 Real estate and rental and leasing 338 1,920 100,921 Professional, scientific, and technical services 575 4,388 241,018 Professional, scientific, and technical services (establishments subject to federal income tax) D 2,500 to 4,999 employees D Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services 282 3,752 126,944 Educational services 65 437 9,810 Educational services (establishments subject to federal income tax) D 250 to 499 employees D Educational services (establishments exempt from federal income tax) D 20 to 99 employees D Health care and social assistance 648 15,736 627,900 Health care and social assistance (establishments subject to federal income tax) 572 7,751 267,078 Health care and social assistance (establishments exempt from federal income tax) 76 7,985 360,822 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 106 1,959 36,192 Arts, entertainment, and recreation (establishments subject to federal income tax) 85 1,734 32,377 Arts, entertainment, and recreation (establishments exempt from federal income tax) 21 225 3,815 Accommodation and food services 757 17,232 299,222 Other services (except public administration) 463 2,828 94,886 Other services (except public administration) (establishments subject to federal income tax) 373 2,343 77,868 Other services (except public administration) (establishments exempt from federal income tax) 90 485 17,018 Total (does not include withheld data or range of numbers) 6,399 98,918 $3,813,855 Source: U.S. Census, Economic Census 2017 D = Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual companies; data are included in higher level totals. Agriculture Farmland plays a smaller role in Galveston County than in does in many other counties in Texas. The US Department of Agriculture produces a Census of Agriculture that tracks agricultural data on the County level. In Galveston County, the number of farms has increased by 3% since 2012 but the acreage of farms has decreased 18% during the same time to just over 73,000 acres of land for farming. Cattle, hogs, sheep, layers, and meat chickens make up the main sales for farms in the County. Galveston County’s agriculture products generate more than $9.2 million in sales each year, but farms operate at a net loss (USDA 2019). Corridors and Gateways Interstate 45, known as the Gulf Freeway, runs from Galveston Island north through the middle of the County. It is an important corridor that ties Galveston County to the Houston metropolitan area. State Highway 3 runs parallel to I-45 from La Marque through League City into Harris County. State Highway 6 branches off of I-45 at Bayou Vista and continues northwest through Brazoria and Harris Counties. State Highway 87 runs along Bolivar Peninsula and Galveston Island where it empties into I-45. State Highway 146 starts at the intersection of State Highway 6 and I-45 where it heads north along the bay side of Galveston County into Harris County. SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-10 2022 Update 3.4.4 Population Trends Galveston County has grown significantly in recent years. Between 2010 and 2020 alone, the estimated population has increased from 291,309 residents to 350,682 residents, a 20 percent increase. The County has grown steadily since 1970, adding between 11 and 16 percent to its population every decade until 2010. The County’s median age increased from 32.5 years in 1990 to 38.7 years in 2020. As the County has grown, it has also aged and change composition. In 1990, those between the ages of 25 and 44 years old represented the plurality of residents. As of 2010, those between the ages of 45 and 64 years of age represent the plurality. Whereas the population share of those under 18 years has remained relatively constant, the share of residents between the ages of 45 and 64 years has increased from 19.4 percent to 28.1 percent during the same time. The County has also diversified racially and ethnically, with the share of Black residents increasing by 5.1 percent and the share of Asian residents more than doubling (3,569 to 8,690) from 1990 to 2010. 3.4.5 Future Growth and Development While Galveston County does not have a Comprehensive Plan that addresses the County as a whole, several communities look at future growth and development in their city plans. By considering these city plans, future growth and development patterns throughout the planning area can be generalized. • City of Dickinson – Based on the Future Land Use Plan, the City of Dickinson would add 8,941 residential dwellings, or 26,824 residents and 65,259 new jobs within the city limits and 1,839 residential dwelling units or 5,518 residents and 6,013 new jobs in the extraterritorial jurisdiction (ETJ). • City of Friendswood – Full buildout is projected with a population of 45,000 to 50,000. • City of Hitchcock – Agricultural residential land is expected to decrease 10 percent while single family residential, multi-family residential, and manufactured homes are expected to increase slightly. Open space is expected to increase with a designated 3,300-acre wetland conservation area. • City of League City – The Future Land Use Plan accounts for a population of up to 178,875 while increasing employment opportunities. New residential activity primarily focuses on rural/estate and suburban character development with a limited number of mixed-use centers. 3.5 LIFELINES AND CRITICAL FACILITIES Critical infrastructure and facilities are those that are essential to the health and welfare of the population. These facilities are especially important after any hazard event. Critical facilities are those that maintain essential and emergency functions and are typically defined to include police and fire stations, schools, and emergency operations centers. Critical infrastructure can include the roads and bridges that provide ingress and egress and allow emergency vehicles access to those in need and the utilities that provide water, electricity, and communication services to the community. Also included are Tier II facilities (hazardous materials) and rail yards; rail lines hold or carry significant amounts of hazardous materials with Critical Facilities are those facilities considered critical to the health and welfare of the population and that are especially important following a hazard. As defined for this HMP, critical facilities include transportation systems, lifeline utility systems, high-potential loss facilities, and hazardous material facilities, and essential facilities Essential facilities are a subset of critical facilities that include those facilities that are important to ensure a full recovery following the occurrence of a hazard event. For the county risk assessment, this category was defined to include police, fire, EMS, schools/colleges, shelters, senior facilities, and medical facilities. Lifelines enable the continuous operation of critical business and government functions and are essential to human health and safety or economic security. SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-11 2022 Update a potential to impact public health and welfare in a hazard event. Beginning in 2017, FEMA developed a new construct to increase effectiveness for disaster operations and position response to catastrophic incidents. This construct, known as “community lifelines”, represents the most fundamental services in the community that, when stabilized, enable all other aspects of society. Following a disaster event, intervention is required to stabilize community lifelines. Lifelines are divided into seven categories which include: ▪ Safety and Security ▪ Food, Water, Shelter ▪ Health and Medical ▪ Energy (Power and Fuel) ▪ Communications ▪ Transportation ▪ Hazardous Materials To facilitate consistency with the National Response Framework, FEMA Strategic Plan, and guidance for the Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities grant program, crit ical facilities in Galveston County are discussed in terms of lifelines. A comprehensive inventory of critical facilities and lifelines in Galveston County was developed from various sources including input from the Planning Committees. The inventory of critical facilities presented in this section represents the current state of this effort at the time of publication of the HMP and was used for the risk assessment in Section 4 (Risk Assessment). 3.5.1 Safety and Security This section provides information on Safety and Security lifelines. Components of this lifeline category include law enforcement/security, fire services, search and rescue services, government services, and community safety (e.g., dams). There are 405 safety and security lifelines in Galveston County. Emergency Facilities There are 31 police stations, 69 fire stations, and nine emergency operations centers (EOCs) in Galveston County. Schools The County contains 142 primary education facilities, 12 secondary education facilities, and 13 colleges. Government Buildings There are 136 government buildings located in Galveston County and includes municipal buildings, public works departments, libraries, and prisons. Dams and Levees Galveston County contains one major dam and one 17-mile levee. SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-12 2022 Update Figure 3-3. Safety and Security Lifelines in Galveston County SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-13 2022 Update 3.5.2 Food, Water, and Shelter Lifelines Food, Water, and Shelter lifelines include facilities pertaining to food supply (distribution facilities, programs, and supply chain), water supply (including both potable and wastewater systems), shelter (housing and hotels), and agricultural facilities. Food Supply Food supply includes commercial food distribution, commercial food supply chains, and food distribution programs. Numerous grocery stores, including large chain stores, and one County-operated food bank are located in Galveston County. In addition to the County’s food bank, there are numerous locations throughout the County that provide food and meals to residents in need. Water Supply Potable Water There are four potable water systems, 25 potable water wells, and 14 storage tanks in Galveston County. Water is provided through surface water and groundwater systems located throughout the County. Numerous utility districts and improvement districts distribute potable water to residents throughout. Wastewater Facilities The County contains 82 lift stations, 30 pump stations, and 2 treatment plants. Similar to potable water, there are numerous utility districts that provide wastewater treatment and services to the County. Shelters Three buildings are identified as shelters in Galveston County and hundreds of hotels are located throughout the County. 3.5.3 Health and Medical Lifelines Health and medical lifelines include medical care (e.g., hospitals, pharmacies, long-term care facilities), patient movement (e.g., EMS), fatality management, public health, and medical supply chain. In Galveston County, there are 91 facilities identified as health and medical lifelines. This includes 27 hospitals, 18 medical clinics, 40 nursing homes, 6 urgent care centers, and 8 ambulance service providers. SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-14 2022 Update Figure 3-4. Food, Water, and Shelter Lifelines in Galveston County SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-15 2022 Update Figure 3-5. Health and Medical Lifelines in Galveston County SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-16 2022 Update 3.5.4 Energy (Power and Fuel) Lifelines The energy (power and fuel) lifeline include facilities pertaining to the power grid and fuel supplies. Galveston County has 598 energy lifelines: one gas pipeline, 535 gas wells, two petroleum ports, 7 power plans, three pump stations, and 50 substations. Figure 3-6 shows the distribution of energy lifelines throughout Galveston County. 3.5.5 Communication Lifelines Communication lifelines include facilities pertaining to infrastructure, alerts/warnings/messages, 911 and dispatch, responder communications, and finance. There are 111 communication facilities in Galveston County: 73 banks and 38 communication towers. Refer Figure 3-7 to see locations of communication lifelines in the County. 3.5.6 Transportation Lifelines Transportation lifelines include facilities pertaining to highway/roadway, mass transit, railway, aviation, and maritime. Major highways in the County include Interstate 45 and State Highways 3, 6, 87, and 146. Figure 3-8 shows the distribution of transportation lifelines throughout the County. Bridges There are 491 bridges and 35 railroad bridges in Galveston County. Ports There are 355 port facilities in Galveston County. Public Transportation There are multiple public transportation providers in Galveston County including a fixed-route bus service, ADA paratransit service, taxi services, and a ferry. Rail The Galveston Railroad operates 32 miles of track. Air Galveston County has one international airport, two airstrips, and two heliports. SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-17 2022 Update Figure 3-6. Energy Lifelines in Galveston County SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-18 2022 Update Figure 3-7. Communication Lifelines in Galveston County SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-19 2022 Update Figure 3-8. Transportation Lifelines in Galveston County SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-20 2022 Update 3.5.7 Hazardous Materials Lifelines The hazardous material lifeline includes facilities pertaining to facilities containing hazardous materials and HAZMAT/pollutants/containments. There are 68 hazardous material lifelines in Galveston County: 8 Superfund sites and 60 waste stations. HAZMAT Facilities A Superfund site consists of land in the United States that has been contaminated by hazardous waste and identified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as a candidate for cleanup because it poses a risk to human health or the environment. These sites are placed on the National Priorities List (NPL), the list of national priorities among the known releases or threatened releases of hazardous substances, pollutants, or contaminants throughout the United States and its territories. The NPL is intended primarily to guide EPA in determining which sites warrant further investigation. Abandoned hazardous waste sites placed on the federal NPL include those that EPA has determined present a significant risk to human health or the environment, with the sites being eligible for remediation under the Superfund Trust Fund Program. As of 2021, Galveston County hosts 8 hazardous sites in the federal Superfund Program that are listed as on the NPL (CERCLIS 2021). SECTION 3: GALVESTON COUNTY PROFILE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 3-21 2022 Update Figure 3-9 Hazardous Materials Lifelines in Galveston County SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-1 2022 Update SECTION 4. RISK ASSESSMENT Risk assessment is the process of measuring the potential loss of life, personal injury, economic injury, and property damage resulting from identified hazards. It allows emergency management personnel to establish early response priorities by identifying potential hazards and vulnerable assets. The process focuses on the following elements: • Hazard identification—Use all available information to determine what types of hazards may affect a jurisdiction, how often they can occur, and their potential severity. • Exposure identification—Estimate the total number of people and properties in the jurisdiction that are likely to experience a hazard event if it occurs. • Vulnerability identification and loss estimation—Assess the impact of hazard events on the people, property, environment, economy, and lands of the region, including estimates of the cost of potential damage or cost that can be avoided by mitigation. The risk assessment for this hazard mitigation plan update evaluates the risk of natural hazards prevalent in the planning area and meets requirements of the Disaster Mitigation Act (44 CFR, Section 201.6(c)(2)). To protect individual privacy and the security of critical facilities, information on properties assessed is presented in aggregate, without details about specific individual personal or public properties. 4.1 METHODOLOGY AND TOOLS The following describes the methodology and tools used to conduct the risk assessment for the Galveston County HMP 2022 update. 4.1.1 Risk Assessment Tools Mapping National, state, and county databases were reviewed to locate available spatially based data relevant to this planning effort. Maps were produced using geographic information system (GIS) software to show the spatial extent and location of hazards when such datasets were available. These maps are included in the hazard profile chapters of this document. Hazus In 1997, FEMA developed the standardized Hazards U.S. (Hazus) model to estimate losses caused by earthquakes and identify areas that face the highest risk and potential for loss. Hazus was later expanded into a multi-hazard methodology with new models for estimating potential losses from hurricanes and floods. Hazus is a GIS-based software program used to support risk assessments, mitigation planning, and emergency planning and response. It provides a wide range of inventory data, such as demographics, building stock, critical facility, transportation and utility lifeline, and multiple models to estimate potential losses from natural disasters. The program maps and displays hazard data and the results of damage and economic loss estimates for buildings and infrastructure. Its advantages include the following: • Provides a consistent methodology for assessing risk across geographic and political entities. • Provides a way to save data so that they can readily be updated as population, inventory, and other factors change and as mitigation planning efforts evolve. SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-2 2022 Update • Facilitates review of mitigation plans because it helps to ensure that FEMA methodologies are incorporated. • Supports grant applications by calculating benefits using FEMA definitions and terminology. • Produces hazard data and loss estimates that can be used in communication with local stakeholders. • Is administered by the local government and can be used to manage and update a hazard mitigation plan throughout its implementation. Level of Detail for Evaluation Hazus provides default data for inventory, vulnerability, and hazards; these default data can be supplemented with local data to provide a more refined analysis. The model can carry out three levels of analysis, depending on the format and level of detail of information about the planning area: • Level 1—All of the information needed to produce an estimate of losses is included in the software’s default data. These data are derived from national databases and describe in general terms the characteristic parameters of the planning area. • Level 2—More accurate estimates of losses require more detailed information about the planning area. To produce Level 2 estimates of losses, detailed information is required about local geology, hydrology, hydraulics, and building inventory, as well as data about utilities and critical facilities. This information is needed in a GIS format. • Level 3—This level of analysis generates the most accurate estimate of losses. It requires detailed engineering and geotechnical information to customize it for the planning area. 4.1.2 Risk Assessment Approach The risk assessments in this plan describe the risks associated with each hazard of concern identified. The following steps were used to define the risk of each hazard: • Identify and profile each hazard—The following information is given for each hazard: o Geographic areas most affected by the hazard o Event frequency estimates o Severity estimates o Warning time likely to be available for response. • Determine exposure to each hazard—Exposure was assessed by overlaying hazard maps with an inventory of structures, facilities, and systems to decide which of them would be exposed to each hazard. • Assess the vulnerability of exposed facilities—Vulnerability of exposed structures and infrastructure was evaluated by interpreting the probability of occurrence of each event and assessing structures, facilities, and systems that are exposed to each hazard. Tools such as GIS and FEMA’s hazard-modeling program Hazus were used for this assessment for the earthquake, flood, and hurricane hazards. Outputs similar to those from Hazus were generated for other hazards, using data generated through GIS. Flood and Hurricane The following hazards were evaluated using Hazus. Flood The 1-percent and 0.2-percent chance flood events were examined to evaluate Galveston County’s risk and vulnerability to the flood hazard. SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-3 2022 Update The effective Galveston County FEMA Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) dated February 16, 2018 was used to evaluate potential future losses caused by the 1-percent and 0.2-percent annual chance flood events. These flood events are generally those considered by planners and evaluated under federal programs such as the NFIP. The coastal flood risk areas for the 1-percent and 0.2-percent annual chance flood events were published on the FEMA map service center December 2014. The 2014 coastal flood risk area was used to divide the AE zones in the 2019 effective DFIRMs into coastal and riverine AE zones. The coastal AE zones were merged with 2019 VE zones to create the coastal flood hazard boundary, which was used to create the coastal depth grids for the 1-percent and 0.2-percent annual chance flood events. The riverine AE zones were merged with the AO and A zones to create the 1-percent annual chance flood event riverine depth grid. The 0.2-percent annual chance flood event riverine depth grid was created by merging the riverine AE, A, and AO zones with the 0.2-percent annual chance X zones. The final coastal and riverine depth grids were processed using a 2018 USGS 1-meter resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM). These depth grids were integrated into the Hazus v5.0 riverine and coastal flood models used to estimate potential losses for the 1-percent and 0.2-percent annual chance flood events. A Level 2 Hazus riverine and coastal flood analysis was performed. Both the critical facility and building inventories were formatted to be compatible with Hazus and its Comprehensive Data Management System (CDMS). Once updated with the inventories, the Hazus riverine and coastal flood model was run to estimate potential losses in Galveston County for the 1-percent and 0.2-percent annual chance flood events. A user- defined analysis was also performed for the building stock. Buildings located within the floodplain were imported as user-defined facilities to estimate potential losses to the building stock at the structural level. Hazus calculated the estimated potential losses to the population (default 2010 U.S. Census data), potential damages to the general building stock, and potential damages to critical facility inventories based on the depth grids generated and the default Hazus damage functions in the flood model. Furthermore, social impacts and debris were estimated by Hazus at the census block level. These results were presented at the municipal level. Since there are multiple census blocks that contain more than one jurisdiction, a density analysis was used to extract the percent of building structures that fall within each block and jurisdiction. The percentage was multiplied against the results calculated for each block and summed for each municipality. Hurricane A Hazus probabilistic analysis was performed to analyze the wind hazard losses for Galveston County for the 100- and 500-year mean return period events. The probabilistic Hazus hurricane model activates a database of thousands of potential storms that have tracks and intensities reflecting the full spectrum of Atlantic hurricanes observed since 1886 and identifies those with tracks associated with the County. Hazus contains data on historic hurricane events and wind speeds. It also includes surface roughness and vegetation (tree coverage) maps for the area. Surface roughness and vegetation data support the modeling of wind force across various types of land surfaces. Default demographic and updated building and critical facility inventories in Hazus were used for the analysis. Although damages are estimated at the census tract level, results were presented at the municipal level. Since there are multiple census tracts that contain more than one jurisdiction, a density analysis was used to extract the percent of building structures that fall within each tract and jurisdiction. The percentage was multiplied against the results calculated for each tract and summed for each municipality. Coastal and Inland Erosion Best available data was used to assess Galveston County’s vulnerability to coastal and inland erosion. To help understand the geographic distribution of the County’s risk to coastal erosion, a 100-foot buffer was created from NOAA’s 2011 shoreline. The inland erosion hazard area was determined using USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service’s 2020 soil data for Galveston County. Soils with an erodibility factor (k) of 0.49 or greater SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-4 2022 Update were extracted to assess the County’s risk to inland erosion. Asset data (population, building stock, critical facilities, and new development) were used to support an evaluation of assets exposed and potential impacts and losses. To determine what assets are at risk to coastal and inland erosion, the County’s assets were overlaid with the hazard area. Assets with their centroid located in the hazard area were totaled to estimate the number of persons, buildings, and facilities at risk to impacts from coastal and inland erosion. Expansive Soils Best available data was used to assess Galveston County’s vulnerability to expansive soils. To help understand the geographic distribution of expansive soils, USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service’s 2020 soil data for Galveston County was referenced. Soils with linear extensibility greater than or equal to 6-percent were selected as expansive soils. Asset data (population, building stock, critical facilities, and new development) were used to support an evaluation of assets exposed and potential impacts and losses. To determine what assets are at risk to impacts from expansive soils, the County’s assets were overlaid with the hazard area. Assets with their centroid located in the hazard area were totaled to estimate the number of persons, buildings, and facilities at risk to impacts from expansive soils. Sea Level Rise: 1-foot Increments Projected sea-level rise data (in one-foot increments) available from the NOAA Office of Coastal Management (https://coast.noaa.gov/slrdata/) was considered and used for this analysis to understand the assets within communities projected to be impacted by sea level rise (refer to Section 4.3.6 – Flood). Please note these levels do not include additional storm surge due to a hurricane or Nor’easter. The current Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) also do not include the effects of sea-level rise. To assess the County’s risk to sea level rise, the 2017 NOAA 1-foot, 2-feet, 3-feet, and 4-feet sea level rise hazard areas were referenced. Asset data (population, building stock, critical facilities and lifelines, and new development) were used to support an evaluation of assets exposed and potential impacts and losses. To determine what assets are vulnerable to sea-level rise, the County’s assets were overlaid with the hazard area. Assets with their centroid located in the hazard area were totaled to estimate the number of persons, buildings, and facilities at risk to impacts from sea- level rise. Severe Winter Weather All of Galveston County (population, buildings, and environment) is exposed and vulnerable to the winter storm hazard. In general, structural impacts include damage to roofs and building frames, rather than building content. Current modeling tools are not available to estimate specific losses for this hazard. A percentage of the custom- building stock structural replacement cost value was utilized to estimate damages that could result from winter storm conditions (i.e., 1-percent, 5-percent, and 10-percent of total replacement cost value). Given professional knowledge and currently available information, the potential losses for this hazard are considered to be overestimated; hence, providing a conservative estimate for losses associated with winter storm events. Storm Surge: Categories 1-4 Storm surge hazard data available from the NOAA was considered and used for this analysis to understand the assets within communities projected to be impacted by hurricane storm surge (refer to Section 4.3.8 – Hurricane). This risk assessment used NOAA’s 2014 Sea Lake Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) data to analyze the assets at risk to impacts from hurricane storm surge. SLOSH represents potential flooding from worst-case combinations of hurricane direction, forward speed, landfall point, and high astronomical tide were used to estimate exposure. Please note these inundation zones do not include riverine flooding caused by hurricane surge or inland freshwater flooding. The model, developed by the NOAA National Hurricane Center to forecast surges that occur from wind and pressure forces of hurricanes, considers only storm surge height, and SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-5 2022 Update does not consider the effects of waves. The SLOSH spatial data includes boundaries for Category 1 through Category 4 hurricane events. To estimate exposure to the SLOSH Category 1 through Category 4 flood hazard areas, the spatial flood hazard boundaries were overlaid on centroids of updated assets (population, building stock, critical facilities and lifelines, and new development). Centroids that intersected the hazard areas were totaled to estimate the building replacement cost value and population vulnerable to the storm surge inundation areas. Tsunami Best available data was used to assess Galveston County’s vulnerability to impacts from tsunamis. At this time, the Hazus model does not assess tsunami risk to areas in the State of Texas. Therefore, a hazard area was developed based upon the number of assets within 322 feet of a tsunami evacuation route. This area represents the locations within the County that will experience the greatest amount of congestion to evacuate out of the County due to a tsunami event. Asset data (population, building stock, critical facilities, and new development) were used to support an evaluation of assets exposed and potential impacts and losses. To determine what assets are at risk to impacts from tsunamis, the County’s assets were overlaid with the hazard area. Assets with their centroid located within 322 feet of a tsunami evacuation route were totaled to estimate the number of persons, buildings, and facilities at risk to impacts from tsunamis. Wildfire The Wildfire-Urban Interface (Interface and Intermix) obtained through the SILVIS Laboratory, Department of Forest Ecology and Management, University of Wisconsin – Madison, was referenced to delineate wildfire hazard areas. The University of Wisconsin – Madison wildland fire hazard areas are based on the 2010 Census and 2006 National Land Cover Dataset and the Protected Areas Database. For this risk assessment, the high-, medium-, and low-density interface areas were combined and used as the “Interface” hazard area, and the high-, medium-, and low-density intermix areas were combined and used as the “Intermix” hazard areas. Asset data (population, building stock, critical facilities, and new development) were used to support an evaluation of assets exposed and potential impacts and losses. To determine what assets are at risk to impacts from wildfires, the County’s assets were overlaid with the hazard area. Assets with their centroid located within the wildfire hazard areas were totaled to estimate the number of persons, buildings, and facilities at risk to impacts from wildfire events. All Other Assessed Hazards No GIS format datasets appropriate for an exposure analysis were identified for the following hazards: dam and levee failure, drought, extreme temperature, hail, land subsidence, lightning, pandemic, thunderstorm wind, tornadoes, and utility failure. 4.1.3 Sources of Data Used in Hazus Modeling and Exposure Analyses Galveston County assets were identified to assess potential exposure and loss associated with the hazards of concern. For the HMP update, Galveston County assessed exposure vulnerability of the following types of assets: population, buildings, and critical facilities/infrastructure. Some assets may be more vulnerable because of their physical characteristics or socioeconomic uses. To protect individual privacy and the security of critical facilities, information on properties assessed is presented in aggregate, without details about specific individual personal or public properties. SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-6 2022 Update Building and Cost Data Replacement cost values and detailed structure information derived from parcel and tax assessor data provided by the Galveston County Appraisal District were loaded into Hazus. An updated inventory was used in place of the Hazus defaults for critical facilities and infrastructure. Replacement cost is the cost to replace the entire structure with one of equal quality and utility. Replacement cost is based on industry-standard cost-estimation models published in RS Means Square Foot Costs (RS Means, 2021). It is calculated using the RS Means square foot cost for a structure, which is based on the Hazus occupancy class (i.e., multi-family residential or commercial retail trade), multiplied by the square footage of the structure from the tax assessor data. The construction class and number of stories for single-family residential structures also factor into determining the square foot costs. Critical Facilities and Lifelines The 2021 HMP critical facility inventory, which includes essential facilities, utilities, government offices, transportation features and user-defined facilities was updated by the Planning Partnership. The update involved a review for accuracy, additions, or deletions of new/moved critical assets, identification of backup power for each asset (if known) and whether the critical facility is considered a lifeline in accordance with FEMA’s definition. To protect individual privacy and the security of assets, information is presented in aggregate, without details about specific individual properties or facilities. Population Total population statistics from the 2015-2019 ACS 5-year estimate were used to estimate the exposure and potential impacts to the County’s population in place of the 2010 U.S. Census block estimates. Population counts were evenly distributed by the number of residential buildings per municipality generated from the building stock inventory used in the hazard mitigation plan update. This estimate is a more precise distribution of population across the County compared to only using the Census block or Census tract boundaries. Limitations of these analyses are recognized, and thus the results are used only to provide a general estimate for planning purposes. As discussed in Section 3 (County Profile), research has shown that some populations are at greater risk from hazard events because of decreased resources or physical abilities. Vulnerable populations in Galveston County included in the risk assessment are children, elderly, and population below the poverty level. Hazus Data Inputs The following hazard datasets were used for the Hazus Level 2 analysis conducted for the risk assessment: • Flood—The FEMA 2019 effective Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) and FEMA 2014 coastal hazard area depth grids for the planning area was used to delineate the coastal and riverine flood hazard areas to estimate potential losses. Using the DFIRM floodplain boundaries and base flood elevation information, and the USGS 1-meter digital elevation model data, flood depth grids were generated and integrated into the Hazus model. • Hurricane—Hazus hurricane probabilistic data were used for the analysis of this hazard. Other Local Hazard Data Locally relevant information on hazards was gathered from a variety of sources. Frequency and severity indicators include past events and the expert opinions of geologists, emergency management specialists, and others. Data sources for specific hazards were as follows: • Coastal Erosion—NOAA 2011 CUSP Shoreline 100-foot buffer SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-7 2022 Update • Inland Erosion—USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service soils data where erosion factor (k) is equal or greater than 0.49 • Storm Surge—NOAA 2014 storm surge data • Sea Level Rise—NOAA 2017 sea level rise data • Wildfire—Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) data was acquired from the University of Wisconsin No GIS format datasets appropriate for an exposure analysis were identified for the following hazards: dam and levee failure, drought, extreme temperature, hail, land subsidence, lightning, pandemic, thunderstorm wind, tornadoes, and utility failure. Data Source Summary Table 4-1 summarizes the data sources used for the risk assessment for this plan. Table 4-1. Data Sources Data Source Date Format Critical Facilities Essential Government Functions Government Offices; City of Galveston; HIFLD; Texas Commission on Environmental Quality; Texas Tech University 2021/2021/2020/2021/2021 Digital (GIS) format General Building Stock Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing; RS Means 2021/2018/2021 Digital (GIS) format Population data American Community Survey 5-year Estimates 2019 Digital (GIS and tabular) format Digital Elevation Model USGS 2018 Digital (GIS) format FEMA Effective DFIRM Data FEMA 2018 Digital (GIS) format Coastal Flood Hazard Area FEMA 2014 Digital (GIS) format Coastal Erosion NOAA 2011 Digital (GIS) format Inland Erosion USGS/NRCS 2020 Digital (GIS) format Sea Level Rise NOAA 2017 Digital (GIS) format SLOSH NOAA 2014 Digital (GIS) format Wildfire University of Wisconsin 2010 Digital (GIS) format Expansive Soils USGS/NRCS 2020 Digital (GIS) format Tsunami Evacuation Routes Galveston County GIS 2021 Digital (GIS) format 4.1.4 Limitations Loss estimates, exposure assessments, and hazard-specific vulnerability evaluations rely on the best available data and methodologies. Uncertainties are inherent in any loss estimation methodology and arise in part from incomplete scientific knowledge concerning natural hazards and their effects on the built environment. Uncertainties also result from the following: • Approximations and simplifications necessary to conduct a study • Incomplete or outdated inventory, demographic or economic parameter data • The unique nature, geographic extent, and severity of each hazard • Mitigation measures already employed • The amount of advance notice residents has to prepare for a specific hazard event. These factors can affect loss estimates by a factor of two or more. Therefore, potential exposure and loss estimates are approximate and should be used only to understand relative risk. Over the long term, Galveston County will collect additional data to assist in estimating potential losses associated with other hazards. SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-8 2022 Update 4.2 IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDS OF CONCERN To provide a strong foundation for mitigation actions considered in Sections 6 (Mitigation Strategy), Galveston County focused on considering a full range of hazards that could impact the area and then identified and ranked those hazards that presented the greatest concern. The hazard of concern identification process incorporated input from the Steering Committee; review of the State of Texas Hazard Mitigation Plan (2019); review of the 2017 Galveston County HMP; research and local, state, and federal information on the frequency, magnitude, and costs associated with the various hazards that have previously, or could feasibly, impact the region; and qualitative or anecdotal information regarding natural (not manmade) hazards and the perceived vulnerability of the study area’s assets to them. Table 4.2-1 documents the process of identifying the hazards of concern for further profiling and evaluation. Other natural and human-caused hazards of concern have occurred within Galveston County, have a low potential to occur and/or result in significant impacts within the County, or are covered in other plans that specifically address technological and intentional hazards. Therefore, these hazards will not be further addressed within this version of the plan. However, if deemed necessary by the County, these hazards may be considered in future versions of the HMP. 4.2.1 Changes from the 2017 Hazard Mitigation Plan Since the development of the last plan, hazards and disasters not assessed in the prior plan have occurred in the County. These hazards were identified by stakeholders as areas to address in the plan. The prior plan did not address pandemic as a hazard of concern. Beginning in March 2020, Galveston County was hit with the COVID-19 pandemic along with the rest of the world. As of December 28, 2021, there were 58,824 confirmed cases in Galveston County and 588 deaths associated with the virus. The prior plan only addressed extreme heat, but this update includes both heat and cold when addressing extreme temperatures. This reflects the devastating cold event of February 2021. The prior plan addressed coastal erosion as a single hazard. This update includes inland erosion in the profile. The 2022 Galveston County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update includes best available data throughout the plan to present an updated understanding the County’s risk. 4.2.2 Hazard Groupings As per the 2017 Galveston County HMP, the Steering Committee maintained the grouping of hazards based on the similarity of hazard events, typical concurrence or impacts, consideration of how hazards have been grouped in FEMA guidance documents (FEMA 386-2 Understanding Your Risks, Identifying Hazards and Estimating Losses; Multi-Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment – The Cornerstone of the National Mitigation Strategy; Local Mitigation Planning Handbook), and consideration of hazard grouping in the State of Texas HMP. The Coastal and Inland Erosion profile addresses erosion associated with water in Galveston County. The Dam and Levee Failure profile addresses dam/levee failures that may impact Galveston County. Hazards of Concern are defined as those hazards that are considered most likely to impact a community. These are identified using available data and local knowledge. SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-9 2022 Update The Drought hazard profile specifically addresses drought events that occurred in Galveston County. The Expansive Soils profile addresses expansive soil-related events that may occur in Galveston County. The Extreme Temperature hazard profile specifically addresses periods of extreme temperature (heat and cold) that occurred in the County or had considerable impact on the County. The Flood hazard includes riverine, flash flooding, coastal and stormwater flooding. Inclusion of the various forms of flooding is consistent with that used in FEMA’s Multi-Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment guidance. The Hail hazard profile specifically addresses hail events that occurred in Galveston County. The Hurricane and Tropical Storm profile addresses hurricanes and tropical storms that occurred in or impacted Galveston County. The Land Subsidence profile addresses land subsidence events occurring in Galveston County or having impacts on the County. The Lightning hazard profile specifically addresses lightning events that occurred in Galveston County. The Pandemic hazard profile addresses diseases with the potential to impact the County, including the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), West Nile Virus, and Influenza. The Severe Winter Storm profile includes heavy snow, blizzards, and ice storms. This grouping is consistent with the State of Texas HMP. The Thunderstorm Wind hazard profile specifically addresses thunderstorm events that occurred in Galveston County. The Tornado hazard profile specifically addresses tornado events that occurred in Galveston County. The Tsunami profile addresses the potential for events that may occur in Galveston County. The Utility Failure profile includes events related to power outages in Galveston County. The Wildfire profile addresses wildfire events that occurred in Galveston County. Table 4-2. Identification of Hazards of Concern for Galveston County Hazard Description Natural Hazards Coastal and Inland Erosion • Coastal erosion impacts the jurisdictions in Galveston County that border the Gulf or tidal waterway. • Inland erosion is common along the streams and bayous. SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-10 2022 Update Hazard Description • Inland and coastal erosion are identified as hazards of concern in the 2018 State of Texas Hazard Mitigation Plan; however, they were profiled individually. • Due to the history of occurrence in the County, the coastal and inland erosion hazard is identified as a hazard of concern for Galveston County. Dam and Levee Failure • According to the National Inventory of Dams, there is 1 major dam dams in Galveston County. It is classified as a high hazard dam. • The identified dam is for water supply purposes and was built in 1949. • The Galveston County hurricane flood protection levee protects the cities of Texas City and La Marque. The levee is comprised of 15.7 miles of an earthen berm and 1.3 miles of concrete wall, offering a total of 17 miles of protection. • There have been no reported dam or levee incidents in the County. • Due to the high hazard dam and the levee system located in the County, dam and levee failure was identified as a hazard of concern for the county. • The 2018 State of Texas HMP includes dam/levee failure as a hazard of concern for the State. Drought • Galveston County was the subject of seven USDA declarations for drought that occurred between 2012 and 2021. • Due to the history of occurrence and the impacts drought can have, drought was identified as a hazard of concern for Galveston County. Earthquake • The 2018 State of Texas HMP includes earthquakes as a hazard of concern for the State; however, due to the lack of earthquake events in the County and the unlikely possibility of future events, earthquake is not identified as a hazard of concern for Galveston County. Expansive Soils • According to the 2018 State of Texas HMP, Galveston County is underlaid by soils with a high potential for swelling. • Groundwater withdrawal will continue to increase the risk for expansive soil issues. An increase in development will increase the need for groundwater. • While portions of the County are underlaid by expansive soils, Galveston County has insufficient data on losses and no record of impacts from expansive soils. Extreme Temperature • Extreme heat and extreme cold temperatures were identified as hazards of concern in the State of Texas HMP; however, they were profiled individually. • Galveston County has been impacted by eight heat events and three cold events between 1996 and 2021. • Galveston County has experienced extreme heat and cold events and will continue to experience them in the future. Therefore, extreme temperature was identified as a hazard of concern for the County. Flood • Riverine and coastal flooding are identified as hazards of concern in the 2018 State of Texas Hazard Mitigation Plan; however, they were profiled individually. • 96 flood events have been identified as occurring in Galveston County between 1996 and 2020. The flood events have resulted in six FEMA disaster declarations. • As of September 2021, there are 58,956 flood insurance policies in force and claims that have totaled over $2.1 million since 1970. • The State HMP indicated that Galveston County is located in one of the storm surge basins and has a large percentage of land inside the SFHA. The County will continue to experience flood events. • Based on the history of events and losses, flooding was identified as a hazard of concern for Galveston County. Hail • Hailstorms were identified as a hazard of concern in the 2018 Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan. • Galveston County was not subject to a hail-related major disaster/emergency declaration; however, the County has been subject to a number of hail events since 1996. There is a 100% chance of the County being impacted by a hail event during a given year. • Hail was identified as a hazard of concern for Galveston County. Hurricanes, Tropical Storms, and Depressions • Hurricanes and tropical storms were identified as a hazard of concern in the 2018 State Hazard Mitigation Plan. • Galveston County was included in 14 of 29 hurricane-related major disaster and emergency declarations. Since 1996, there have been 19 tropical storm/hurricane events. • Based on history of occurrences and losses, the hazard was identified as a hazard of concern for Galveston County. Land Subsidence • Land subsidence was identified as a hazard of concern in the State Hazard Mitigation Plan. The State HMP indicates that Galveston County is located within a coastal lowlands aquifer system area of the State that is vulnerable to land subsidence. SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-11 2022 Update Hazard Description • There have been no impacts to any critical facilities, infrastructure, or other community assets. Rates of subsidence have decreased across Galveston County, but its effects continue to compound. Lightning • Lightning was identified as a hazard of concern in the 2018 State Hazard Mitigation Plan. • Lightning is a somewhat frequent occurrence in the County. However, based on available data, there have been only 20 reported events since 1996 causing over $3.5 million in property damage, five fatalities, and three injuries. • The hazard was identified as a hazard of concern for Galveston County. Pandemic • Galveston County has experienced three separate public health events since 2003. These includes include West Nile Virus, Zika Virus, and COVID-19. • At the time of this plan’s writing, COVID-19 continues to impact public health both locally and globally. • The hazard was identified as a Hazard of Concern for Galveston County. Severe Winter Storm • Winter weather was identified as a hazard of concern in the State Hazard Mitigation Plan. • Galveston County has infrequently been impacted by ice storms and heavy snow, but property damages have been in the millions of dollars. • The hazard was identified as a Hazard of Concern for Galveston County. Thunderstorm Wind • Severe Winds were identified as a hazard in the State Hazard Mitigation Plan. • For this plan, Severe Winds were included as part of the Thunderstorm Wind hazard. • Galveston County has been subject to two thunderstorm-related major disaster declarations and more than 200 events since 1950. • The hazard was identified as a Hazard of Concern for Galveston County. Tornadoes • The Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan identified tornadoes as a state hazard of concern. • Galveston County has not been the subject and tornado-related FEMA disaster declarations; however, 54 funnel clouds and 124 tornadoes have occurred in the County since 1950, causing over $36 million in property damage, 9 fatalities, and 243 injuries. • The hazard was identified as a Hazard of Concern for Galveston County. Tsunami • The 2018 State of Texas HMP does not list tsunami as a hazard of concern for the State; however, the 2017 Galveston County HMP included it for the County. • There has been one small wave tsunami event recorded in the County over 100 years ago in 1918. • The hazard was identified as a Hazard of Concern for Galveston County. Wildfire • The Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan identified wildfires as a state hazard of concern. • While wildfires have occurred in the County, Galveston County has insufficient data on losses and no record of impacts from wildfires. • The wildfire hazard was identified as a Hazard of Concern for Galveston County. Non-Natural Hazards Utility Failure • Power failures are usually the result of a natural hazard event involving high winds. • Power failure is especially problematic for homes that are cooled or heated by electricity and for residents who rely on power for home medical devices. • The hazard was identified as a Hazard of Concern for Galveston County. SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-12 2022 Update 4.3 HAZARD PROFILES 4.3.1 Erosion The following section provides the hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the erosion hazard in Galveston County. Hazard Profile Description Erosion is the process of the wearing away of beaches and bluffs along the coastline by large storms, flooding, strong wave action, sea level rise, fluvial currents, and human activities. In the State of Texas, there are two types of erosion: coastal erosion and inland erosion. Coastal Erosion Coastal erosion is a hydrologic hazard defined as the wearing away of land and loss of beach, shoreline, or dune material because of natural coastal processes or manmade influences. Coastal erosion is linked to hurricane damage in that healthy coastal dunes and beaches help reduce impacts of hurricane, tropical storms, tropical depressions, and severe coastal flooding. Mitigating coastal erosion also mitigates those hazards (State of Texas Hazard Mitigation Plan 2018). Erosion is measured as a rate of change in the position or displacement of a shoreline over a period of time. Short-term erosion typically results from periodic natural events, such as wave action, storm surges and wind. Long-term erosion is a result of repetitive occurrences of this type and of severe storm and flooding events. Erosion can affect natural and built environments. Impacts depend on topography, soils, building types and construction materials. Coastal erosion can affect natural systems, coastal food supplies, tourism industry, and small town viability. When sea water infiltrates freshwater wetlands, they can die, removing key habitats for animals and a protective buffer for nearby communities (State of Texas Hazard Mitigation Plan 2018). The most vulnerable jurisdictions in Texas are the cities and towns along the coast and barrier islands in Region 2, Region 3, and Region 6. The planning area is in Region 2 and therefore especially vulnerable to coastal erosion. See Figure 4-2 for shoreline movement rates. Mitigation techniques include dune and beach restoration, building seawalls, and placing semi-permanent obstructions perpendicular to beaches. Coastal erosion mitigation actions have the benefit of helping reduce impacts from hurricanes and severe coastal flooding. The Texas General Land Office (GLO) manages coastal erosion and documents its progress to the legislature in Coastal Erosion Planning and Response Act reports. Figure 4-1 Texas Regions SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-13 2022 Update Figure 4-2 Texas Shoreline Movement Rate Map Source: (Bureau of Economic Geology, University of Texas 2012) Inland Erosion Inland erosion is the wearing-away of soil or removal of the banks of streams or rivers. It involves the breakdown, detachment, transport, and redistribution of soil particles by forces of water, wind, or gravity. Soil erosion on cropland is of particular interest because of its onsite impacts on soil quality and crop productivity, and its off- site impacts on water quantity and quality, air quality, and biological activity. Erosion is measured as a rate of change in the position or displacement of a river or stream bank over a period of time or the amount of soil removal. Short-term erosion results from periodic flooding and wind. Long-term erosion is a result of repetitive events of this type and of prolonged drought. In the State of Texas, inland erosion is more prominent in the High Plains, Rolling Plains, and Coastal Sand Plains. Galveston County is located in the Gulf Coast Prairies & Marshes ecoregion and therefore inland erosion is not as prominent as coastal erosion (Figure 4-3). SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-14 2022 Update Figure 4-3. Location of Erosion Areas in the State of Texas Source: Kids on the Land, 2021 Erosion caused by water is the primary concern for the County. Water erosion is the detachment and removal of soil by water. The process can occur naturally or be accelerated by human activity. The rate of erosion can be a slow process that continues relatively unnoticed or can occur very rapidly. The rate is dependent on the type of soil, the local landscape, and weather conditions (Ritter 2018, USDA 2000). There are three types of water erosion that can occur: sheet, rill, and gully. Sheet erosion is the most difficult to see as it is a uniform soil layer being remove from an area over the surface. Rill erosion starts as water flowing over the soil surface concentrates into small streams, creating channels of water flow. Gully erosion is when rill erosion is not kept under control and creates gullies (deeper and wider cuts) (Soil Science Society of America n.d.) Erosion can be most severe where urbanization, development, recreational activities, logging, and agricultural practices take place. Extreme rainfall events, lack of vegetative cover, fragile soils and steep slopes combine to accelerate erosion (Ritter 2018). Location Coastal Erosion Coastal erosion impacts the jurisdictions in Galveston County that border the Gulf or tidal waterway. These include Clear Lake Shores, Hitchcock, Jamaica Beach, Kemah, Tiki Island, and the unincorporated areas of Galveston County (Galveston County 2017). SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-15 2022 Update Inland Erosion The Dickinson Bayou watershed encompasses approximately 100 square miles of land that drains water into the bayou. Vegetated riparian zones are an important component of the bayous that provide functional and aesthetic values. Vegetated shorelines minimize soil erosion and naturally increase filtration of surface water runoff. In many areas of the watershed, Dickinson Bayou has little natural riparian buffer left (Dickinson Bayou Watershed Partnership n.d.). The Highland Bayou Coastal Basin is a 120 square mile drainage basin located on mainland Galveston County. Bayou and stream segments consist of non-tidal, tidally influenced, and tidal waters. Fresh water in the bayous is largely precipitation-driven overland flows (Texas A&M AgriLife Extension n.d.). Even though the topography is flat, overland flows can cause erosion in basin. Extent Coastal Erosion Galveston County has approximately 55 miles of Gulf shoreline and 291 miles of Bay shoreline. As shown in Figure 4-2, the jurisdictions located on the Gulf of Mexico have experienced substantial land loss along the shoreline. According to the Texas General Land Office, the Texas coast is eroding at 4.0 feet per year (Texas General Land Office 2015). Inland Erosion It is difficult to directly measure erosion and the risk of erosion. There are other properties, however, that can be used to measure erosion: soil surface stability, aggregate stability, infiltration, compaction, and content of organic matter. Measuring these properties can help with understanding the susceptibility of erosion at a specific location. Comparing visual observations along with quantitative measurements can help provide information about soil surface stability, sedimentation, and soil loss (USDA 2001). Every five years the Natural Resources Conservation Service conducts a statistical survey of natural resource conditions and trends on non-federal land in the United States called the National Resources Inventory (NRI). The NRI provides nationally consistent statistical data on erosion resulting from water and wind processes on cropland. It uses a variety of tables and maps to document the ongoing state of erosion across the count y (State of Texas Hazard Mitigation Plan 2018, NRCD 2010). One key measure used in the NRI is the Erodibility Index (EI). This index is a numerical expression of the potential of a soil to erode, considering climatic factors and the soils’ physical and chemical properties. The higher the index, the greater is the investment needed to maintain the sustainability of the soil resource base of high-yield crops. Highly Erodible Land is defined to have an EI of at least 8 (State of Texas Hazard Mitigation Plan 2018). SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-16 2022 Update Figure 4-4. National Erosion Loss Rates Source: NRI 2007 Another soil erosion component is the soil loss tolerant rate. Identified as ‘T’, this is the maximum rate of annual soil loss that will permit crop productivity to be economically sustained. Erosion is considered to be greater than ‘T’ if either water or wind erosion rates exceed the soil tolerance rate (State of Texas Hazard Mitigation Plan 2018). Figure 4-4 illustrates the locations of where erosion exceeded the soil loss tolerance rates across the United States. Each red dot represents 100,000 tons of erosion above the soil loss tolerance. According to this figure, areas of erosion exceeding the soil loss tolerance rates was not identified in Galveston County. Worst-Case Scenario Magnitude scales for erosion events do not currently exist, but any storm that produces significant amounts of rain in a short period of time could lead to a worst-case scenario for an erosion incident along the shoreline or the bayous of Galveston County. Storms that occur in rapid succession similar to the events that occurred in August and September 2020 (see Table 4-3) may cause several feet of dune and bayou erosion to occur, similar to those previous events. Additionally, hurricane winds can create wave action that quickly erodes shoreline areas. Rainfall events that occur upstream from the bayous can create flood stages and high flow rates. This causes the water to move at higher speeds through the County, causing erosion along the banks of the bayous. Impacts from such events includes road closures, damage to infrastructure and buildings, and inaccessible areas that can disrupt emergency response. Previous Occurrences and Losses Between 1953 and 2021, the State of Texas was not included in any erosion-related FEMA disaster declarations. For this plan update, there was limited information regarding inland erosion in Galveston County. Statistical data for individual erosion events is not readily available, however the following events were identified as coastal erosion events associated with severe weather events. SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-17 2022 Update Table 4-3. Severe Storm/Erosion Events for Galveston County, 2003-2021 Start Date of Event Event Type Event Details July 14, 2003 Hurricane Claudette The highest recorded tide level, 7.56 ft. above mean low‐lower water, was recorded at Pleasure Pier in Galveston. September 23, 2005 Hurricane Rita In Galveston County, tropical storm force sustained winds with gusts to hurricane force were reported across the county, especially on the Bolivar Peninsula. November 15, 2006 High Winds A strong cold front moved through Southeast Texas in the morning. A tight surface pressure gradient behind the front produced winds at wind advisory levels with some higher gusts observed at Bacliff. September 12, 2007 Hurricane Humberto Developed from a tropical depression into a hurricane within nineteen hours. Maximum rainfall totals from Humberto ranged from around two inches to over fourteen inches mainly along and east of a line from Freeport to the Hitchcock and Texas City area to around Winnie. September 5, 2008 Tropical Storm Edouard Storm tide damage on the Bolivar Peninsula was confined to the Gilchrist area. Ten single family homes experienced flooding up to eighteen inches deep inside the home. Fifteen single family homes and two mobile homes experienced flooding up to six inches deep inside the home. September 12, 2008 Hurricane Ike Ike produced damage due to high storm surge and high winds along Galveston Island, the Bolivar Peninsula, and along the Galveston Bay. Storm tides of 10 to 15 feet above mean sea level were observed in these areas. April 24, 2010 High Winds A low-pressure system combined with a gravity wave disturbance produced a period of strong winds mainly along the coast. Wind gusts were in excess of 69 mph. September 3, 2011 High Surf High offshore winds associated with Tropical Storm Lee impacted areas of Galveston County. June 15, 2015 Tropical Storm High surf caused erosion of Galveston Island beaches during Tropical Storm Bill. June 21, 2017 Tropical Storm Coastal flooding occurred in connection with Tropical Storm Cindy. August 26, 2017 Hurricane Harvey Hurricane Harvey produced major flooding throughout the County. August 26, 2020 Storm Surge/Tide Storm surge flooding and high surf associated with Hurricane Laura. Beach erosion on both the Gulf and Bay sides. September 23, 2020 Storm Surge/Tide Storm surge flooding and high surf associated with Tropical Storm Beta. Significant beach erosion occurred along the Bolivar Peninsula and Galveston Island. October 8, 2020 Tropical Storm Hurricane Delta produced high surf and elevated tides along Gulf facing beaches and around Galveston Bay. Source: NOAA-NCEI 2021, Galveston County HMP 2017 Note: Due to limitations in data, not all erosion events are accounted for in the tally of occurrences. As a result, the number of hazard occurrences is underestimated Climate Change Projections Climate change may impact storm patterns, increasing the probability of more frequent, intense storms with varying duration. Increase in global temperature could affect the snowpack and its ability to hold and store water. Warming temperatures also could increase the occurrence and duration of droughts, which would increase the probability of wildfire, reducing the vegetation that helps to support steep slopes. All of these factors would increase the probability for erosion to occur. SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-18 2022 Update Probability of Future Events It is anticipated that erosion will continue to occur along the shoreline and bayous of Galveston County. As the frequency of storms occur due to climate change, the probability for future events will likely increase as well. Table 4-4 summarizes data regarding the probability of occurrences of erosion events in the County based on the historic record. The information used to calculate the probability of occurrences is based on the 2017 Galveston HMP, the NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database, and FEMA. Table 4-4 Probability of Future Occurrence of Erosion Events Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 2003 and 2020 % chance of occurrence in any given year Erosion 14 77.8% Based on the 14 recorded erosion events over 17 years, the planning area averages nearly one erosion event every year. Based on the history of events, the probability for erosion events occurring in the County is considered occasional (between 10 and 100% annual chance of occurring). Refer to Section 4.4 for additional information on the hazard ranking methodology and probability criteria. Vulnerability Assessment To assess Galveston County's risk to the coastal and inland erosion hazards, a spatial analysis was conducted using the best available data. To help understand the geographic distribution of the County’s risk to coastal erosion, a 100-foot buffer was created from NOAA’s 2011 shoreline. The inland erosion hazard area was determined using USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service’s 2020 soil data for Galveston County. Soils with an erodibility factor (k) of 0.49 or greater were extracted to assess the County’s risk to inland erosion. Figure 4-5 depicts these hazard areas in the County. Refer to Section 4.1 (Methodology and Tools) for additional details on the methodology used to assess coastal and inland erosion risk. Impact on Life, Health and Safety Coastal and inland erosion is not generally considered an imminent threat to public safety when the changes are gradual over many years. However, drastic changes to the shoreline may occur as a result of a single storm event which can threaten homes and public safety. Furthermore, erosion can cause damage to residential buildings, displace residents, and block major roadways, thus inhibiting travel for emergency responders or populations trying to evacuate the area. Erosion can create water quality problems in surface waters and drainage ways. These problems can adversely impact the health and biological diversity of water bodies. According to the USDA, this includes: • Excess nutrients impact water quality through eutrophication, a process where excess nitrogen and phosphorus causes unwanted biological growth in water bodies. • Sediment reduces water quality by making the water cloudy. Turbidity prevents sunlight from penetrating the water and reduces photosynthesis and underwater vegetation. Oxygen levels are reduced in turbid waters, further degrading habitat for fish and other aquatic organisms. • Sediment can build up in stream channels, lowering flow capacity. The problem of low stream capacity is compounded as runoff increases from newly built-up or paved areas and causes stream channels to receive larger amounts of water in shorter periods of time. This leads to more frequent flooding in areas that never or only rarely flooded in the past. In flood prone areas, levees may need to be built or enlarged to better protect public safety. SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-19 2022 Update • A financial burden results from cleanup of sediment-damaged areas. Taxpayers often bear the cost of removing sediment from public roads, road ditches, culverts, or streams; not to mention damage to homes and the safety hazards associated with flooding. Other costs of erosion that are borne by the public are degraded soils, a polluted environment, more runoff, greater need for irrigation, and aesthetically unpleasing sites (USDA 2000). SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-20 2022 Update Figure 4-5. Erosion Hazard Areas in Galveston County, TX SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-21 2022 Update The population exposed, or located in the estimated hazard area, is considered vulnerable to this hazard. The analysis indicates that 5,049 people are located in the estimated coastal erosion hazard area, and a total of 42,644 are located in the inland erosion hazard area (Table 4-5). Table 4-5. Estimated Population Located in the Coastal Erosion Hazard Area Jurisdiction Total Population (American Community Survey 2015- 2019) Estimated Population Located in the Erosion Hazard Areas Number of Persons Located in the Coastal Erosion Hazard Area Percent of Total Number of Persons Located in the Inland Erosion Hazard Area Percent of Total Clear Lake Shores (C) 1,258 66 5.2% 0 0.0% Dickinson (C) 20,847 0 0.0% 20 0.1% Friendswood (C) 41,213 0 0.0% 3,791 9.2% Hitchcock (C) 7,301 170 2.3% 3,770 51.6% Jamaica Beach (C) 1,078 1 0.1% 0 0.0% Kemah (C) 1,807 20 1.1% 344 19.0% La Marque (C) 18,030 0 0.0% 1,686 9.4% League City (C) 114,392 2,258 2.0% 15,118 13.2% Santa Fe (C) 12,735 0 0.0% 4,938 38.8% Bayou Vista (C) 1,763 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Tiki Island (V) 1,106 973 88.0% 0 0.0% Galveston County (Total) 350,682 5,049 1.4% 37,595 10.7% Source: ACS 5-year Estimate 2015-2019; NOAA 2011 (100 foot buffer from CUSP Shoreline), USDA/NRCS 2020 (K factor >0.49) Note (1): C = City, V = Village, % = Percent, < = Less Than Note (2): The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. RCV = Land Use and Population Trends Impact on General Building Stock After considering the population exposed and potentially vulnerable to the coastal and inland erosion, the built environment was evaluated. Erosion can impact structures located along the banks of waterways, having the potential to destabilize the foundation of structures. It can also impact infrastructure such as dams, levees, roads, and other developed land. Table 4-6 and Table 4-7 summarizes the results of the vulnerability analysis regarding erosion in Galveston County. In summary, 4,922 buildings accounting for approximately $6.07 billion of replacement cost value are located in the estimated coastal erosion hazard area (Table 4-6). In total, this represents about nearly 4% percent of the County's total general building stock inventory. Furthermore, 21,966 structures (approximately $16.5 billion) are located in inland erosion hazard area (Table 4-7). SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-22 2022 Update Table 4-6. Estimated Buildings Located in the Coastal Erosion Hazard Area Jurisdiction Total Number of Buildings Total Replacement Cost Value (RCV) Estimated Building Stock Located in the Coastal Erosion Hazard Areas Number of Buildings Located in the Coastal Erosion Hazard Area Percent of Total Total Replacement Cost Value of Buildings Located in the Coastal Erosion Hazard Area Percent of Total Clear Lake Shores (C) 1,155 $904,562,368.66 76 6.6% $66,169,833 7.3% Dickinson (C) 10,351 $6,601,710,645.63 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Friendswood (C) 14,891 $10,815,456,384.12 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Hitchcock (C) 5,452 $4,592,036,651.86 112 2.1% $57,463,776 1.3% Jamaica Beach (C) 1,291 $458,205,838.82 5 0.4% $12,472,408 2.7% Kemah (C) 1,634 $2,631,702,105.60 35 2.1% $164,157,938 6.2% La Marque (C) 10,749 $7,927,292,522.28 0 0.0% $0 0.0% League City (C) 46,742 $31,237,974,594.10 926 2.0% $846,109,429 2.7% Santa Fe (C) 7,942 $4,831,628,162.13 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Bayou Vista (C) 1,365 $445,354,087.33 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Tiki Island (V) 868 $365,209,145.44 750 86.4% $303,617,859 83.1% Galveston County (Total) 209,947 $166,321,604,688.46 4,922 2.3% $6,077,155,937 3.7% Source: Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing 2018; RS Means 2021, NOAA 2011 (100 foot buffer from CUSP Shoreline) Note (1): C = City, V = Village, % = Percent, < = Less Than Note (2): The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. RCV = Land Use and Population Trends Table 4-7. Estimated Buildings Located in the Inland Erosion Hazard Area Jurisdiction Total Number of Buildings Total Replacement Cost Value (RCV) Estimated Building Stock Located in the Inland Erosion Hazard Areas Number of Buildings Located in the Inland Erosion Hazard Area Percent of Total Total Replacement Cost Value of Buildings Located in the Inland Erosion Hazard Area Percent of Total Clear Lake Shores (C) 1,155 $904,562,368.66 14 1.2% $245,995,024 27.2% Dickinson (C) 10,351 $6,601,710,645.63 9 0.1% $4,507,445 0.1% Friendswood (C) 14,891 $10,815,456,384.12 1,451 9.7% $1,514,963,977 14.0% Hitchcock (C) 5,452 $4,592,036,651.86 2,715 49.8% $1,928,182,025 42.0% Jamaica Beach (C) 1,291 $458,205,838.82 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Kemah (C) 1,634 $2,631,702,105.60 320 19.6% $739,122,117 28.1% La Marque (C) 10,749 $7,927,292,522.28 1,016 9.5% $738,400,989 9.3% League City (C) 46,742 $31,237,974,594.10 6,315 13.5% $4,032,743,676 12.9% Santa Fe (C) 7,942 $4,831,628,162.13 3,030 38.2% $1,786,356,664 37.0% Bayou Vista (C) 1,365 $445,354,087.33 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Tiki Island (V) 868 $365,209,145.44 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Galveston County (Total) 209,947 $166,321,604,688.46 21,966 10.5% $16,543,834,687 9.9% Source: Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing 2018; RS Means 2021, USDA/NRCS 2020 (K factor >0.49) Note (1): C = City, V = Village, % = Percent, < = Less Than SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-23 2022 Update Note (2): The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. RCV = Land Use and Population Trends Impact on Critical Facilities and Lifelines Coastal erosion and sea level rise may potentially impact critical facilities and lifelines identified within the County. Critical services may not be available if critical facilities or lifelines are directly damaged or transportation routes to access these critical facilities are breached due to erosion. Erosion may des tabilize the roadways leading to facilities or destroy the foundation that supports the critical facilities along the shoreline. Table 4-8. Estimated Critical Facilities and Lifelines in the Coastal Erosion Hazard Areas Jurisdiction Total Number of Critical Facilities Total Number of Lifelines Number of Critical Facilities and Lifeline Facilities Located in the Coastal Erosion Hazard Area Critical Facilities Percent of Total Critical Facilities Lifelines Percent of Total Lifelines Clear Lake Shores (C) 24 24 15 62.5% 15 62.5% Dickinson (C) 91 83 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Friendswood (C) 96 82 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Galveston (C) 691 671 63 9.1% 63 9.4% Hitchcock (C) 214 212 2 0.9% 2 0.9% Jamaica Beach (C) 11 11 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Kemah (C) 15 14 2 13.3% 2 14.3% La Marque (C) 121 107 0 0.0% 0 0.0% League City (C) 321 283 19 5.9% 19 6.7% Santa Fe (C) 135 128 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Bayou Vista (C) 5 5 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Tiki Island (V) 7 7 1 14.3% 1 14.3% Galveston County (Total) 2,437 2,317 175 7.2% 175 7.6% Source: Essential Government Functions Government Offices 2021; City of Galveston 2021; HIFLD 2020; Texas Commission on Environmental Quality 2021; Texas Tech University 2021; NOAA 2011 (100 foot buffer from CUSP Shoreline); USDA/NRCS 2020 (K factor >0.49) Note (1): C = City, V = Village, % = Percent, < = Less Than Note (2): The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. RCV = Land Use and Population Trends Table 4-9. Estimated Critical Facilities and Lifelines in the Inland Erosion Hazard Areas Jurisdiction Total Number of Critical Facilities Total Number of Lifelines Number of Critical Facilities and Lifeline Facilities Located in the Inland Erosion Hazard Area Critical Facilities Percent of Total Critical Facilities Lifelines Percent of Total Lifelines Clear Lake Shores (C) 24 24 2 8.3% 2 8.3% Dickinson (C) 91 83 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Friendswood (C) 96 82 16 16.7% 14 17.1% Hitchcock (C) 214 212 39 18.2% 39 18.4% Jamaica Beach (C) 11 11 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Kemah (C) 15 14 10 66.7% 10 71.4% SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-24 2022 Update Jurisdiction Total Number of Critical Facilities Total Number of Lifelines Number of Critical Facilities and Lifeline Facilities Located in the Inland Erosion Hazard Area Critical Facilities Percent of Total Critical Facilities Lifelines Percent of Total Lifelines La Marque (C) 121 107 9 7.4% 8 7.5% League City (C) 321 283 60 18.7% 47 16.6% Santa Fe (C) 135 128 53 39.3% 50 39.1% Bayou Vista (C) 5 5 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Tiki Island (V) 7 7 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Galveston County (Total) 2,437 2,317 231 9.5% 211 9.1% Source: Essential Government Functions Government Offices 2021; City of Galveston 2021; HIFLD 2020; Texas Commission on Environmental Quality 2021; Texas Tech University 2021; NOAA 2011 (100 foot buffer from CUSP Shoreline); USDA/NRCS 2020 (K factor >0.49) Note (1): C = City, V = Village, % = Percent, < = Less Than Note (2): The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. RCV = Land Use and Population Trends Impact on Economy The impact of erosion on the economy and estimated dollar losses are difficult to measure. Erosion and other geological hazards can impose direct and indirect impacts on society. Erosion directly causes damages to buildings. The total replacement cost value of structures located in the coastal and inland erosion hazard areas in Galveston County is $22.6 billion ($6.08 billion coastal and $16.5 billion inland). Coastal and inland erosion can cause extensive damage to public utilities and disruptions to delivery of services. Loss of power and communications may occur and drinking water and wastewater treatment facilities may be temporarily out of operation. Additionally, disruption to business operations can occur in cases where infrastructure is breached by erosion. Loss of income may occur as a secondary impact if businesses are closed under repairs due to this breaching. To prevent these potential business losses, public expenditures may need to be spent to implement shoreline stabilizers and to protect key infrastructure like highways and interstates that follow along the coastline. Furthermore, erosion may result in additional clean-up costs, reduced property values, and loss of productivity, all of which are difficult to measure (USGS 2003). Impact on the Environment Erosion is a natural or man-made process that can greatly impact the environment. Sediment transferred through streams, lakes, rivers can erode soil and impact ecosystems. High sediment concentrations can benefit the environment by retaining dead plant production and capturing suspended sediment (Delaware Estuary Regional Sediment Management Plan Workbook 2013). Alternatively, upland erosion can degrade water quality and quantity, ultimately impacting aquatic life. Negative overall impacts to the environment occur when erosion eliminates or contaminates critical habitats. For instance, filter-feeding bivalves consume small particles, which, if contaminated from erosion runoff, could kill them (Kreeger et al. 2010). FEMA estimates that every dollar spent on erosion control and mitigation to preserve wetlands and other natural ecosystems provides a return on average of four dollars in cost-savings for the future. Preliminary studies following Hurricane Harvey indicated this ration will increase from 1:4 to 1:6. Without healthy beaches, dunes and wetlands to protect the coast, there is more day-to-day wear and the impact of major storms and hurricanes is far more severe (Texas HMP 2018). SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-25 2022 Update Future Changes That May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that affect vulnerability can assist in planning for future development and ensure establishment of appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development • Projected changes in population • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change Projected Development As discussed, and illustrated in Section 3 (County Profile), areas targeted for future growth and development have been identified across the County. Any areas of growth could be affected by erosion if the growth areas are within identified hazard areas. Areas targeted for potential future growth and development could be potentially impacted by erosion if they are located within areas prone to erosion Projected Changes in Population Increasing population trends in the Texas coastal region will directly increase the risks associated with coastal erosion. A larger population will require additional structures to be constructed on land that is eroding in the coastal regions. Coastal erosion does not pose a risk to loss of life, but the structures built on the coast will require constant maintenance costs due to the continually loss of the coastal shorelines in Texas. Climate Change A direct impact of climate change on erosion is difficult to determine. Multiple secondary effects of climate change have the potential to increase the likelihood of erosion. Warming temperatures resulting in wildfires would reduce vegetative cover along steep slopes and destabilize the soils due to destruction of the root system; increased intensity of rainfall events would increase saturation of soils on steep slopes. Change of Vulnerability Since 2017 HMP Since the 2017 analysis, population statistics have been updated using the 2015-2019 American Community Survey population data. RS Means 2021-dollar values were used to develop a structure-level building inventory and estimate replacement cost value for each building. The 2017 critical facility and lifeline inventory was also reviewed and updated by the Planning Partnership. Furthermore, a coastal erosion hazard area and inland erosion hazard area were generated using a 100-foot buffer from NOAA’s Continually Updated Shoreline Product (CUSP) and soils with a K factor of great than 0.49 from the NRCS soil survey for Galveston County. These changes provide an up-to-date look at the entire building stock for Galveston County and gives more accurate results for the exposure and loss estimation analysis. 4.3.2 Dam and Levee Failure The following section provides the hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the dam and levee failure hazard for Galveston County. Profile Hazard Description Dams A dam is an artificial barrier that has the ability to store water, wastewater, or liquid-borne materials for many reasons—flood control, human water supply, irrigation, livestock water supply, energy generation, containment SECTION 4.3.2: Dam and Levee Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-26 2022 Update of mine tailings, recreation, or pollution control. Many dams fulfill a combi nation of these functions. They are an important resource in the United States (Association of State Dam Safety Officials 2021). Dams can be classified according to their purpose, the construction material or methods used, their slope or cross-section, the way they resist the force of the water pressure, or the means used for controlling seepage. Materials used to construct dams include earth, rock, tailings from mining or milling, concrete, masonry, steel, timber, plastic, rubber, and combinations of these. Dam failures typically occur when spillway capacity is inadequate and excess flow overtops the dam, or when internal erosion (piping) through the dam or foundation occurs. Complete failure occurs if internal erosion or overtopping results in a complete structural breach, releasing a high-velocity wall of debris-filled water that rushes downstream, damaging anything in its path. Dam failures in the United States typically occur in one of four ways: • Overtopping of the primary dam structure, which accounts for 34 percent of all dam failures, can occur due to inadequate spillway design, settlement of the dam crest, blockage of spillways, and other factors. • Foundation defects due to differential settlement, slides, slope instability, uplift pressures, and foundation seepage can also cause dam failure. These account for 30 percent of all dam failures. • Failure due to piping and seepage accounts for 20 percent of all failures. These are caused by internal erosion due to piping and seepage, erosion along hydraulic structures such as spillways, erosion due to animal burrows, and cracks in the dam structure. • Failure due to problems with conduits and valves, typically caused by the piping of embankment material into conduits through joints or cracks, constitutes 10 percent of all failures. Regulatory Oversight for Dams National Dam Safety Act Potential for catastrophic flooding due to dam failures led to passage of the National Dam Safety Act (Public Law 92-367). The National Dam Safety Program requires a periodic engineering analysis of the majority of dams in the country; exceptions include the following: • Dams under jurisdiction of the Bureau of Reclamation, Tennessee Valley Authority, or International Boundary and Water Commission • Dams constructed pursuant to licenses issued under the Federal Power Act • Dams that the Secretary of the Army determines do not pose any threat to human life or property. The goal of this FEMA-monitored effort is to identify and mitigate the risk of dam failure so as to protect lives and property. The National Dam Safety Program is a partnership among states, federal agencies, and other stakeholders that encourages individual and community responsibility for dam safety. Under FEMA’s leadership, state assistance funds have allowed all participating states to improve their programs through increased inspections, emergency action planning, and purchases of needed equipment. FEMA has also expanded existing and initiated new training programs. Grant assistance from FEMA provides support for improvement of dam safety programs that regulate most of the dams in the United States. Texas State Dam Safety Program The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality Dam Safety Program monitors and regulates private and public dams in Texas. The program periodically inspects dams that pose a high or significant hazard and makes recommendations and reports to dam owners to help them maintain safe facilities. This program is governed by Texas Administrative Code Title 30, Part 1, Chapter 299: Dams and Reservoirs. SECTION 4.3.2: Dam and Levee Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-27 2022 Update Effective September 1, 2013, dams are exempt from safety requirements if they meet all of the following criteria: • Are located on private property • Have a maximum impoundment capacity of less than 500 acre-feet • Are classified as low or significant hazard • Are located in a county with a population of less than 350,000 (per the 2010 census) • Are not located within the corporate limits of a municipality. Owners of exempt dams still have to comply with maintenance and operation requirements. There is no exemption expiration date. Figure 4-6 shows the counties covered by the population exemption. Galveston County is an exempt county. Figure 4-6 Counties Exempt from the Texas Dam Safety Program U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Dam Safety Program The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates and maintains approximately 700 dams nationwide. It is also responsible for safety inspections of some federal and non-federal dams in the United States that meet the size and storage limitations specified in the National Dam Safety Act. The Corps has inventoried dams; surveyed each state and federal agency’s capabilities, practices and regulations regarding design, construction, operation, and maintenance of the dams; and developed guidelines for inspection and evaluation of dam safety. The Corps maintains the National Inventory of Dams, which contains information about a dam’s location, size, purpose, type, last inspection and regulatory status (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers n.d.). Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Dam Safety Program SECTION 4.3.2: Dam and Levee Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-28 2022 Update The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) cooperates with a large number of federal and state agencies to ensure and promote dam safety. More than 3,000 dams are part of regulated hydroelectric projects in the FERC program. Two-thirds of these are more than 50 years old. As dams age, concern about their safety and integrity grows, so oversight and regular inspection are important. FERC inspects hydroelectric projects on an unscheduled basis to investigate the following: • Potential dam safety problems • Complaints about constructing and operating a project • Safety concerns related to natural disasters • Issues concerning compliance with the terms and conditions of a license. Every five years, an independent engineer approved by the FERC must inspect and evaluate projects with dams higher than 32.8 feet (10 meters), or with a total storage capacity of more than 2,000 acre-feet. FERC monitors seismic research and applies it in performing structural analyses of hydroelectric projects. FERC also evaluates the effects of potential and actual large floods on the safety of dams. During and following floods, FERC visits dams and licensed projects, determines the extent of damage, if any, and directs any necessary studies or remedial measures the licensee must undertake. The FERC publication Engineering Guidelines for the Evaluation of Hydropower Projects guides the FERC engineering staff and licensees in evaluating dam safety. The publication is frequently revised to reflect current information and methodologies. FERC requires licensees to prepare emergency action plans and conducts training sessions on how to develop and test these plans. The plans outline an early warning system if there is an actual or potential sudden release of water from a dam due to failure. The plans include operational procedures that may be used, such as reducing reservoir levels and reducing downstream flows, as well as procedures for notifying affected residents and agencies responsible for emergency management. These plans are frequently updated and tested to ensure that everyone knows what to do in emergency situations. Levees Levees have been constructed in the State of Texas for over 100 years to protect farms, ranch land, and populated areas from flooding (State of Texas Hazard Mitigation Plan 2018). A levee is a physical barrier constructed to protect areas from rising floodwaters. Levees typically remove valuable floodplain storage and block the ability of the channel to move water. There are also concerns with rainfall that falls on the levee itself. Most important is the possibility for catastrophic and sudden failure under extreme flood events, potentially resulting in loss of life and total destruction of property. A levee breach occurs when part of a levee gives way, creating an opening through which floodwaters may pass. A breach may occur gradually or suddenly. The most dangerous breaches happen quickly during periods of high water. Earthen levees can be damaged in several ways. Strong river currents and waves can erode the surface. Trees growing on a levee can blow over, leaving a hole where the root wad and soil used to be. Burrowing animals can create holes that enable water to pass through a levee. If severe enough, any of these situations can lead to a zone of weakness that could cause a levee breach. In seismically active areas, earthquakes and ground shaking can cause a loss of soil strength, weakening a levee and possibly resulting in failure. Seismic activity can also cause levees to slide or slump, both of which can lead to failure. The resulting torrent from a levee breach can quickly swamp a large area behind the failed levee with little or no warning. When a levee system fails or is overtopped, severe flood damage can occur due to increased water surface elevation associated with levees and the resulting increase in water velocity. SECTION 4.3.2: Dam and Levee Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-29 2022 Update Regulatory Oversight for Levees U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and FEMA Levee Oversight USACE and FEMA have differing roles and responsibilities related to levees. USACE addresses a range of operation and maintenance, risk communication, risk management, and risk reduction issues as part of its responsibilities under the Levee Safety Program. FEMA addresses mapping and floodplain management issues related to levees, and it accredits levees as meeting requirements set forth by the National Flood Insurance Program. Depending on the levee system, USACE and FEMA may be involved with the levee sponsor and community independently or—when a levee system overlaps both agency programs—jointly. Under both scenarios, the long-term goals are similar: to reduce risk and lessen the devastating consequences of flooding. Some USACE and FEMA partnering activities related to levees include: • Joint meetings with levee sponsors and other stakeholders • Integration of levee information into the National Levee Database • State Silver Jackets teams • Sharing of levee information • Targeted task forces to improve program alignment The Silver Jackets is a program that provides an opportunity to consistently bring together multiple state, federal, tribal, and local agencies to learn from each other and apply their knowledge to reduce risk. The Program’s primary goals include the following: • Create or supplement a mechanism to collaboratively identify, prioritize, and address risk management issues and implement solutions. • Increase and improve risk communication through a unified interagency effort. • Leverage information and resources and provide access to such national programs as FEMA’s Risk MAP and USACE’s Levee Inventory and Assessment Initiative. • Provide focused, coordinated hazard mitigation assistance in implementing high-priority actions such as those identified by state hazard mitigation plans. • Identify gaps among agency programs and/or barriers to implementation, such as conflicting agency policies or authorities, and provide recommendations for addressing these issues. The State of Texas has a Silver Jackets team. Their vision is to increase efficiency and coordination between the state and federal governments in developing comprehensive and sustainable solutions to flood risk management in the State of Texas. The team provides a variety of projects, plans, and outreach to help the State mitigate and prevent future floods. Information about the team can be found online: https://silverjackets.nfrmp.us/State-Teams/Texas Coordination between USACE and FEMA with regard to levees is now standard within many of each agency’s policies and practices. Over the past several years, both agencies coordinated policies where appropriate; jointly participated in meetings with stakeholders; and participated in many multiagency efforts, such as the National Committee on Levee Safety, the Federal Interagency Floodplain Management Task Force, and the Silver Jackets Program. National Committee on Levee Safety The National Committee on Levee Safety was created by Congress to “develop recommendations for a national levee safety program, including a strategic plan for implementation of the program.” The Committee adopted SECTION 4.3.2: Dam and Levee Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-30 2022 Update the vision of “an involved public and reliable levee system working as part of an integrated approach to protect people and property from floods,” and has been working toward this goal since October 2008 (National Committee on Levee Safety 2010). The Committee is made up of representatives from state, regional, and local agencies; the private sector; USACE; and FEMA. Maintenance Requirements No levee provides protection from events for which it was not designed, and levees require maintenance to continue to provide the level of protection they were designed and built to offer. Maintenance responsibility belongs to a variety of entities including local, state, and federal government and private landowners. Well- maintained levees may obtain certification through independent inspections. Levees may not be certified for maintaining flood protection when the levee owner does not maintain the levee or pay for an independent inspection. The impacts of an un-certified levee include higher risk of levee failure. In addition, insurance rates may increase because FEMA identifies on Flood Insurance Rate Maps that the structures are not certified to protect from a 1-percent annual chance flood event. Location Dam According to the National Inventory of Dams, there are two dams in Galveston County. • Galveston County Water Industrial Reservoir Dam - located at Dickinson Bayou in Texas City. This dam, operated and maintained by the Gulf Coast Water Authority, is classified as a “High” hazard dam. Although Texas City is not part of this plan, the neighboring jurisdictions of Clear Lake Shores, Kemah, La Marque, and unincorporated areas of Galveston County could be impacted should this dam experience a breach (Figure 4-7). Inundation mapping is not currently available for the dam, but a Countywide action has been included in this plan to pursue obtaining inundation area data. • GCWA Off Channel Term Stop Res Levee – privately owned, earthen dam with a heigh of 8 feet and a storage area of 90 acre feet. • Participating jurisdictions that could be impacted by the high hazard dam have mitigation actions to address the hazard in their annexes, including Galveston County, Clear Lake Shores, Kemah, and La Marque. SECTION 4.3.2: Dam and Levee Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-31 2022 Update Figure 4-7. Galveston County Water Industrial Reservoir Dam Area Source: Galveston County HMP 2017 Figure 4-8. Dams Located in Galveston County, TX Source: USACE 2022 Note: The green squares indicate the location of a dam. SECTION 4.3.2: Dam and Levee Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-32 2022 Update Levee There are six levee systems located in Galveston County. The largest is the Galveston County hurricane flood protection levee protects the cities of Texas City and La Marque. The levee is comprised of 15.7 miles of an earthen berm and 1.3 miles of concrete wall, offering a total of 17 miles of protection. Hurricane flood protection efforts in the Texas City area began in 1928 when some 13,500 feet of earthen levees were constructed by Galveston County in the general area of the port and industrial section of Texas City. These levees reached an elevation of about 14.5 feet. In 1932, construction began on an additional 8,300-foot-long concrete wall and a 3,800-foot-long earthen levee. Both of these structures were built to an elevation of 12.5 feet. The Texas City/La Marque Hurricane Flood Protection Levee has numerous appurtenant structures. The project is designed to provide protection for about 36 square miles of residential and industrial development from tropical hurricanes of magnitudes up to and including a Standard Project Hurricane Tide of 15 feet (Galveston County 2017). Figure 4-9. Levees Located in Galveston County, TX Source: USACE 2022 SECTION 4.3.2: Dam and Levee Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-33 2022 Update Extent Dam Failure The extent or magnitude of a dam failure event can be measured in terms of the classification of the dam. Additionally, there are two factors that influence the potential severity of a full or partial dam failure are: (1) the amount of water impounded; and (2) the density, type, and value of development and infrastructure located downstream (Association of State Dam Safety Officials 2020). The following classification system is used by the USACE for the hazard potential of dams. • Low Hazard Potential Dams are dams where failure or mis-operation results in no probable loss of human life and low economic and/or environmental losses. Losses are principally limited to the owner’s property. • Significant Hazard Potential Dams where failure or mis-operation results in no probable loss of human life but can cause economic loss, environmental damage, disruption of lifeline facilities, or can impact other concerns. Significant hazard potential classification dams are often located in predominantly rural or agricultural areas but could be located in areas with population and significant infrastructure. • High Hazard Potential Dams are dams where failure or mis-operation will probably cause loss of human life. Levee Failure In the event of a levee failure, floodwaters may ultimately inundate the protected area landward of the levee. The extent of inundation is dependent on the flooding intensity. Failure of a levee during a 1 percent annual chance flood will inundate the approximate 100-year flood plain previously protected by the levee. Residential and commercial buildings located nearest the levee overtopping or breach location will suffer the most damage from the initial embankment failure flood wave. Landward buildings will be damaged by inundation (FEMA 2004). Levees require maintenance to continue to provide the level of protection they were designed and built to offer. Maintenance responsibility belongs to a variety of entities including local, state, and federal government and private landowners. Well-maintained levees may obtain certification through independent inspections. Levees may not be certified for maintaining flood protection when the levee owner does not maintain the levee or pay for an independent inspection. The impacts of an uncertified levee include higher risk of levee failure. In addition, insurance rates may increase because FEMA identifies on Flood Insurance Rate Maps that the structures are not certified to protect from a 1-percent annual chance flood event (FEMA 2004). Worst-Case Scenario While the probability of a dam or levee failure is low, a worst-case scenario would be a hurricane or tropical storm that would stall over the County, causing the dam or levee to breech or overtop, impacting areas that are supposed to be protected. If a dam or levee failure were to occur, properties protected by the structure could see up to four feet of standing water. Injuries may occur, but loss of life is not expected. Previous Occurrences and Losses According to available records from the State of Texas 2018 HMP Update, Galveston County Multi- Jurisdictional HMP, and the National Performance of Dams Program, there have been no reported dam or levee incidents recorded for Galveston County. SECTION 4.3.2: Dam and Levee Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-34 2022 Update Climate Change Projections The climate of Texas is changing. Most of the State has warmed between one half and one degree Fahrenheit in the past century. In the eastern two-thirds of the State, average annual rainfall is increasing; however, the soil is becoming drier. Rainstorms are more intense, and floods are becoming more severe. In the coming decades, storms are likely to become more severe in Texas (EPA 2016). An increasing average annual temperature will directly impact the atmospheric moisture potential. The probability of expanding atmospheric moisture leads to an increasing amount of rainfall during storm events. The increased potential volume of rainfall will directly lead to an increasing pressure placed on levee systems during future riverine flood events (State of Texas Hazard Mitigation Plan 2018). Probability of Future Occurrences All dams face a “residual risk” of failure, which represents the risk that conditions may exceed those for which the dam was designed. For example, dams may be designed to withstand a probable maximum precipitation, defined as “theoretically, the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is physically possible over a given storm area at a particular geographical location at a certain time of the year”. The chance of occurrence of a precipitation event of a greater magnitude than that represents residual risk for such dams. This in tu rn represents a theoretical probability of future occurrence for a dam failure event, though the probability of an event exceeding the assumed maximum is not generally calculated as part of dam design. Levee failure probabilities are considered to be higher than dam failure probabilities because levees are often exposed to more adverse conditions associated with high velocity flood flows, such as erosion and scour. Many levees are designed to overtop in high flow conditions; such overtopping is referred to as design failure. No historical events of dam or levee failures have been recorded in the County, though the risk of failure s is monitored. Based on the lack of historical occurrences, the probability of a future event is considered low (not likely to occur in 100 years). Refer to Section 4.4 for additional information on the hazard ranking methodology and probability criteria. Vulnerability Assessment To understand risk, a community must evaluate assets exposed to and vulnerable to the identified hazard. The entire City of Texas City and La Marque are vulnerable to the levee failure hazard; and the jurisdictions of Clear Lake Shores, Kemah, La Marque, and unincorporated areas of Galveston County are vulnerable to the dam failure hazard. The following text evaluates and estimates the potential impact of the dam and levee failure hazard in the County as a whole. Impact on Life, Health and Safety The impact of dam and levee failure on life, health, and safety is dependent on several factors such as the class of dam/levee, the area that the dam/levee is protecting, the location of the dam/levee, and the proximity of structures, infrastructure, and critical facilities to the dam or levee structure. The level of impact that a failure could have can be predicted based upon the hazard potential classification as rated by the USACE. Table 4-10. USACE Hazard Potential Classifications for Dams Hazard Category (a) Direct Loss of Life (b) Lifeline Losses (c) Property Losses (d) Environmental Losses (e) Low None (rural location, no permanent structures for human habitation) No disruption of services (cosmetic or rapidly repairable damage) Private agricultural lands, equipment, and isolated buildings Minimal incremental damage SECTION 4.3.2: Dam and Levee Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-35 2022 Update Hazard Category (a) Direct Loss of Life (b) Lifeline Losses (c) Property Losses (d) Environmental Losses (e) Significant Rural location, only transient or day-use facilities Disruption of essential facilities and access Major public and private facilities Major mitigation required High Certain (one or more) extensive residential, commercial, or industrial development Disruption of essential facilities and access Extensive public and private facilities Extensive mitigation cost or impossible to mitigate Source: FEMA 2004 Note: a. Categories are assigned to overall projects, not individual structures at a project. b. Loss-of-life potential is based on inundation mapping of area downstream of the project. Analyses of loss-of-life potential should consider the population at risk, time of flood wave travel, and warning time. c. Lifeline losses include indirect threats to life caused by the interruption of lifeline services from project failure or operational disruption; for example, loss of critical medical facilities or access to them. d. Property losses include damage to project facilities and downstream property and indirect impact from loss of project services, such as impact from loss of a dam and navigation pool, or impact from loss of water or power supply. e. Environmental impact downstream caused by the incremental flood wave produced by the project failure, beyond what would normally be expected for the magnitude flood event under which the failure occurs. Levee failure impacts depend on several factors including severity of the event and whether or not adequate warning time is provided to residents. The population living in or near the inundation areas are considered exposed to the hazard. However, exposure should not be limited only to those who reside within a defined hazard zone, but everyone who may be affected by a hazard event (e.g., people are at risk while traveling in flooded areas, or their access to emergency services is compromised during an event); the degree of that impact varies and is not strictly measurable. Vulnerable populations are all populations downstream from levee failures that are incapable of escaping the area within the allowable time frame. This population includes the elderly, young and individuals with disabilities, access or functional needs who may be unable to get themselves out of the inundation area. The vulnerable population also includes individuals who would not have adequate warning from the emergency warning system (e.g., television or radio); this would include residents and visitors. The population adversely affected by a levee failure may also include those beyond the disaster area that rely on the dam for providing potable water. Floods created from a levee failure and their aftermath present numerous threats to public health and safety including exposure to unsafe food, contaminated drinking and washing water, mosquitoes, animals, mold, and mildew. For more detailed descriptions of these and additional threats to public health and safety, refer to Section 4.3.6 (Flood). Current loss estimation models such as Hazus are not equipped to measure public health impacts such as these. The best preparation for these effects includes awareness that they can occur, education of the public on prevention, and planning to deal with them during responses to dam or levee failure events. Impact on General Building Stock Vulnerable properties are those closest to the dam or levee area. These properties would experience the largest, most destructive surge of water. Transportation routes are vulnerable to dam inundation and have the potential to be wiped out, creating isolation issues. This includes all roads, railroads, and bridges in the path of the dam inundation. Those that are most vulnerable are those that are already in poor condition and would not be able to withstand a large water surge. Utilities such as overhead power lines, cable and phone lines could also be vulnerable. Loss of these utilities could create additional isolation issues for the inundation areas. Impact on Critical Facilities and Lifelines Transportation routes are vulnerable to dam inundation and have the potential to be wiped out, creating isolation issues and significant disruption to travel, including all roads, railroads, and bridges in areas in and around the SECTION 4.3.2: Dam and Levee Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-36 2022 Update levee. Those that are most vulnerable are those that are already in poor condition and would not be able to withstand a large water surge. Utilities such as overhead power lines, cable and phone lines in the inundation zone could also be vulnerable. If phone lines were lost, significant communication issues may occur in the planning area due to limited cell phone reception in many areas. In addition, emergency response would be hindered due to the loss of transportation routes as well as some protective-function facilities located in the inundation zone. Recovery time to restore many critical functions after an event may be lengthy, as wastewater, potable water, and other community facilities are located in the dam inundation zone. Impact on the Economy Severe flooding that follows an event like a dam failure can cause extensive structural damage and withhold essential services. The cost to recover from flood damages after a surge will vary depending on the hazard risk of each dam. Severe flooding that follows an event like a dam failure can cause extensive damage to public utilities and disruptions to delivery of services. Loss of power and communications may occur and drinking water and wastewater treatment facilities can become temporarily out of operation. Debris from surrounding buildings can accumulate should the dam mimic major flood events, such as the 1-percent annual chance flood event that is discussed in Section 4.3.6 (Flood). Levee failure events can significantly impact the local and regional economy. Similar to flooding, losses include, but are not limited to, damages to buildings and infrastructure, agricultural losses, business interruption and impacts on tax base. Flooding as a result of levee failure can cause extensive damage to public utilities and disruptions in delivery of services. Loss of power and communications may occur and drinking water and wastewater treatment facilities may be temporarily out of operation. Impact on the Environment The environmental impacts of a dam or levee failure can include significant water-quality and debris-disposal issues or severe erosion that can impact local ecosystems. Flood waters can back up sanitary sewer systems and inundate wastewater treatment plants, causing raw sewage to contaminate residential and commercial buildings and the flooded waterway. The contents of unsecured containers of oil, fertilizers, pesticides, and other chemicals may get added to flood waters. Hazardous materials may be released and distributed widely across the floodplain. Water supply and wastewater treatment facilities could be offline for weeks. After the flood waters subside, contaminated and flood-damaged building materials and contents must be properly disposed of. Contaminated sediment must be removed from buildings, yards, and properties. Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that effect vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensure establishment of appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development • Projected changes in population • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change Projected Development Any areas of growth in Texas City, La Marque, Clear Lake Shores, Kemah, and unincorporated areas of Galveston County could be potentially impacted by the dam and levee failure hazard because these areas are exposed and vulnerable. Areas in and around the levees are the most vulnerable to losses; therefore, any development in these areas will be more susceptible to levee failure impacts. SECTION 4.3.3: Drought Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-37 2022 Update Projected Changes in Population The County has experienced an increase in population between the 2010 Census (291,309) and the estimated 2019 American Community Survey estimated population of 350,682. The population of the county is expected to increase over the next few years. The increase in population will expose more people to the dam and levee failure hazard. Climate Change An increasing average annual temperature will directly impact the atmospheric moisture potential. The probability of expanding atmospheric moisture leads to an increasing amount of rainfall during storm events. The increased potential volume of rainfall will directly lead to an increasing pressure placed on levee systems during future riverine flood events (State of Texas HMP 2018). Change of Vulnerability Since the 2017 HMP Overall, the County’s vulnerability has not changed, and the County will continue to be exposed and vulnerable to dam and levee failure events, especially those located within or near downstream inundation zones. Because of the sensitive nature of the dam failure inundation zones, potential losses have not been quantified and presented in this plan. To estimate potential losses to population, buildings, critical facilities and infrastructure, inundation areas and depths of flooding may be used to generate depth grids. Hazus may be used to estimate potential losses for the County and participating municipalities in future HMP updates. 4.3.3 Drought This section provides a hazard profile and vulnerability assessment of the drought hazard for Galveston County. Hazard Profile This section presents information regarding the description, extent, location, previous occurrences and losses, climate change projections and probability of future occurrences for the drought hazard. Description Drought is defined as the consequence of a natural reduction in the amount of precipitation expected over an extended period of time, usually a season or more in length (State of Texas Hazard Mitigation Plan 2018). Drought conditions occur in virtually all climatic zones. Drought characteristics vary significantly from one region to another and are relative to the normal precipitation in that region. Drought can increase wildfire/brush fire risk and can affect agriculture, water supply, aquatic ecology, wildlife, and plant life. There are five classifications of drought, as presented in the figure to the right. Location A drought occurs on a regional scale; therefore, all of Galveston County is vulnerable and at risk. Droughts can occur at any time and have the potential to impact every person directly or indirectly in the County, as well as the local economy. Source: University of Nevada Cooperative Extension, Section 4.3.3: Drought Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-38 2022 Update Extent The severity of a drought depends on the degree of moisture deficiency, the duration of the event, and the size and location of the affected area. The longer the duration of the drought and the larger the area impacted, the more severe the potential impacts (University of Nevada, Reno Extension College of Agriculture, Biotechnology & Natural Resources n.d.), Galveston County has the potential to experience the entire range of effects, from extreme drought to extremely moist conditions, as described in the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). U.S. Drought Monitor The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) is a map that shows the location and intensity of drought across the United States. The data is updated every. The USDM uses a five-category system, labeled Abnormally Dry or D0, (a precursor to drought, not actually drought), and Moderate (D1), Severe (D2), Extreme (D3) and Exceptional (D4) Drought. Drought categories show experts' assessments of conditions related to dryness and drought including observations of how much water is available in streams, lakes, and soils compared to usual for the same time of year. Figure 4-11 shows the USDM for November 23, 2021. The figure is shows that Galveston County had no drought condition for the week of November 23, 2021. Figure 4-10 U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas, November 23, 2021 Note: The green circle represents the approximate location of Galveston County Section 4.3.3: Drought Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-39 2022 Update Figure 4-11. U.S. Drought Monitor for November 23, 2021 Palmer Drought Severity Index The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is primarily based on soil conditions. Soil with decreased moisture content is the first indicator of an overall moisture deficit. Table 4-11 lists the PDSI classifications. At the one end of the spectrum, 0 is used as normal and drought is indicated by negative numbers. For example, -2 is moderate drought, -3 is severe drought, and -4 is extreme drought. The PDSI can reflect excess precipitation Section 4.3.3: Drought Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-40 2022 Update using positive numbers; however, this is not shown in Table 4-11. The PDSI is commonly converted to the Palmer Drought Category (U.S. Drought Monitor n.d.). Table 4-11. Palmer Drought Category and Palmer Drought Index Descriptions Category Description Possible Impacts (for Texas) Palmer Drought Index D0 Abnormally Dry • Producers begin supplemental feeding for livestock • Planting is postponed; forage germination is stunted; hay cutting is reduced • Grass fires increase • Surface water levels decline -1.0 to -1.9 D1 Moderate Drought • Dryland crops are stunted • Early cattle sales begin • Wildfire frequency increases • Stock tanks, creeks, streams are low; voluntary water restrictions are requested -2.0 to -2.9 D2 Severe Drought • Pasture conditions are very poor • Soil is hard, hindering planting; crop yields decrease • Wildfire danger is severe; burn bans are implemented • Wildlife moves into populated areas • Hydroelectric power is compromised; well water use increases; mandatory water restrictions are implemented -3.0 to -3.9 D3 Extreme Drought • Soil has large cracks; soil moisture is very low; dust and sandstorms occur • Row and forage crops fail to germinate; decreased yields for irrigated crops and very large yield reduction for dryland crops are reported • Need for supplemental feed, nutrients, protein, and water for livestock increases; herds are sold • Increased risk of large wildfires is noted • Many sectors experience financial burden • Severe fish, plant, and wildlife loss reported • Water sanitation is a concern; reservoir levels drop significantly; surface water is nearly dry; river flow is very low; salinity increases in bays and estuaries -4.0 to -4.9 D4 Exceptional Drought • Exceptional and widespread crop loss is reported; rangeland is dead; producers are not planting fields • Culling continues; producers wean calves early and liquidate herds due to importation of hay and water expenses • Seafood, forestry, tourism, and agriculture sectors report significant financial loss • Extreme sensitivity to fire danger; firework restrictions are implemented • Widespread tree mortality is reported; most wildlife species’ health and population are suffering • Devastating algae blooms occur; water quality is very poor • Exceptional water shortages are noted across surface water sources; water table is declining • Boat ramps are closed; obstacles are exposed in water bodies; water levels are at or near historic lows -5.0 or less Source: U.S. Drought Monitor 2021 Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) The KBDI is an index used to determining forest fire potential. The drought index is based on a daily water balance, where a drought factor is balanced with precipitation and soil moisture (assumed to have a maximum storage capacity of eight-inches) and is expressed in hundredths of an inch of soil moisture depletion. The index ranges from 0 to 800, where a drought index of 0 represents no moisture depletion, while an index of 800 represents absolutely dry conditions (USFS - Wildland Fire Assessment System n.d.) Table 4-12. KBDI Index KBDI Value Description 0 to 200 Soil moisture and large class fuel moistures are high and do not contribute much to fire intensity. Typical of spring dormant season following winter precipitation 200 to 400 Typical of late spring, early growing season. Lower litter and duff layers are drying and beginning to contribute to fire intensity 400 to 600 Typical of late summer, early fall. Lower litter and duff layers actively contribute to fire intensity and will burn actively. Section 4.3.3: Drought Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-41 2022 Update KBDI Value Description 600 to 800 Often associated with more severe drought with increased wildfire occurrence. Intense, deep burning fires with significant downwind spotting can be expected. Live fuels can also be expected to burn actively at these levels. This index is currently derived from ground based estimates of temperature and precipitation resulting from weather stations and interpolated manually by experts at the Texas Forest Service (TFS) for counties across the State. Figure 4-12 shows the KBDI for the State of Texas for November 28, 2021. The figure shows KBDI value of 0-500 for the County. Figure 4-12. KBDI for the State of Texas, November 26, 2021 Worst-Case Scenario A multi-year drought with a Palmer Drought Category of D4 that impacts the southeastern portion of Texas, like the 2008 to 2011 drought, is the worst-case scenario for the County. If another severe drought occurs before these systems have a chance to recover, it could exacerbate the stress already placed on existing planning area water resources. Severe droughts can also lead to crop and livestock losses, impacting the food supply and economy. Section 4.3.3: Drought Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-42 2022 Update Previous Occurrences and Losses Between 1954 and 2021, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) declared that Texas experienced 46 drought-related major disaster (DR) or emergency (EM). Generally, drought-related disasters affect a wide region of the state and can impact many counties; however, Galveston County was not included in the disaster declarations. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) keeps records of agricultural disaste rs. Between 2012 and November 2021, Galveston County was included seven declarations related to drought. Table 4-13. USDA Drought Disaster Declarations for Galveston County, TX between 2012 and 2021 Designation Number Incident Date(s) Approval Date Description of Disaster Crop Disaster Year S3288 Starting January 1, 2012 July 12, 2012 Drought, Wind, Fire, Heat 2012 S3500 Starting February 5, 2013 April 3, 2013 Drought, Wind, Fire, Heat, Insects 2013 S3507 Starting April 2, 2013 April 10, 2013 Drought, Wind, Fire, Heat, Insects 2013 S3555 Starting July 9, 2013 July 17, 2013 Drought, Wind, Fire, Heat, Insects 2013 S3681 April 1 – October 31, 2013 April 23, 2014 Drought, Wind, Fire, Heat 2013 S4669 Starting February 18, 2020 May 6, 2020 Drought 2020 S4932 Starting February 2, 2021 March 26, 2021 Drought 2021 Source: USDA Farm Service Agency 2021 Climate Change Projections Climate is defined not simply as average temperature and precipitation but also by the type, frequency, and intensity of weather events. Both globally and at the local scale, climate change has the potential to alter the prevalence and severity of extremes such as droughts. While predicting changes of drought events under a changing climate is difficult, understanding vulnerabilities to potential changes is a critical part of estimating future climate change impacts on human health, society and the environment (EPA 2016). Wither a warmer climate, droughts can become more frequent, more severe, and longer lasting. According to the National Climate Assessment, variable precipitation and rising temperatures are intensifying droughts, increasing heavy downpours, reducing snowpack, and causing declines in water survey quality. Future warming will add to the stress on water supplies and impact the availability of water supply (USGCRP 2018) Probability of Future Occurrences The frequency of droughts is difficult to forecast as drought occurrences are cyclical in nature and will occur in the future. Based on national annual data from 1895 to 1995, Galveston County underwent severe or extreme conditions approximately 5 to 9.9% of the time (illustrated in Figure 4-13). Section 4.3.3: Drought Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-43 2022 Update Figure 4-13. Palmer Drought Severity Index (1895 to 1995) Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 2020 For the 2022 HMP update, the most up-to-date data was collected to calculate the probability of future occurrence of drought events, of all magnitudes, for Galveston County. Information from NOAA-NCEI storm events database, the 2018 State of Texas HMP, the 2017 Galveston County HMP, and the Drought Impact Report were used to identify the number of drought events that occurred between 1950 and 2021. Using these sources ensures the most accurate probability estimates possible. Table 4-14 presents the probability of future occurrence of drought events in Galveston County. Table 4-14. Probability of Future Drought Events in Galveston County Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1950 and 2021 Percent chance of occurrence in any given year Drought 13 18.06% Sources: NOAA NCEI 2021, State of Texas 2018, Galveston County 2017 Note: Disaster occurrences include federally declared disasters since the 1950 Federal Disaster Relief Act, and selected drought events since 1968. Due to limitations in data, not all drought events occurring between 1954 and 1996 are accounted for in the tally of occurrences. As a result, the number of hazard occurrences is underestimated Based on the 13 recorded drought events over 71 years, Galveston County averages less than one drought a year. A drought event has an 18.06% chance of occurring in any given year in the County. Based on the history of events and input from the Steering Committee, the probability for drought occurring in the County is considered occasional (between 10 and 100% annual chance of occurring). Refer to Section 4.4 for additional information on the hazard ranking methodology and probability criteria. Vulnerability Assessment To understand risk, a community must evaluate assets exposed to and vulnerable to the identified hazard. The entire County is exposed to the drought hazard; therefore, all assets within the County (population, structures, Section 4.3.3: Drought Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-44 2022 Update critical facilities, and lifelines), as described in Section 3 (County Profile), are potentially vulnerable to a drought event. The following text evaluates and estimates the potential impact of the drought hazard in the County. Impact on Life, Health, and Safety The entire population of Galveston County is vulnerable to drought events (2019 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate: 342,139 people). Drought conditions can affect public health and safety, including reduced local firefighting capabilities, health problems related to low water flows and poor water quality, and health problems related to dust. If droughts are severe enough, these health problems can lead to loss of human life. Other possible impacts include recreational risks; effects on air quality; diminished living conditions related to energy, air quality, and sanitation and hygiene; compromised food and nutrition; and increased incidence of illness and disease. Due to their age, health conditions, and limited ability to mobilize to shelters, cooling, and medical resources, the infirm, young, and elderly are particularly susceptible to drought and extreme temperatures, sometimes associated with drought conditions. Some drought-related health effects are short term, while others can be long term (CDC 2012). Impact on General Building Stock No structures will be directly affected by drought conditions, though some structures may become vulnerable to wildfires, which are more likely following years of drought. Droughts can have significant impacts on other types of property such as landscaped areas and economically important natural resources. Impact on Critical Facilities and Lifelines Water supply facilities may be affected by drought events. However, a majority of the critical facilities defined for this plan will continue to be operational during a drought. Impact on the Economy Drought causes the most significant economic impacts on industries that use water or depend on water for their business, most notably agriculture and related sectors, power plants, and oil refineries. In addition to losses in yields in crop and livestock production, drought is associated with increased insect infestations, plant diseases, and wind erosion. Drought can lead to other losses because so many sectors are affected—losses that include reduced income for farmers and reduced business for retailers and others who provide goods and services to farmers. This leads to unemployment, increased credit risk for financial institutions, capital shortfalls, and loss of tax revenue. Prices for food, energy, and other products may also increase as supplies decrease. According to the 2017 Census of Agriculture, Galveston County has 73,125 acres of farmland, resulting in a $9.2 billion market value of products sold. According to the 2018 State of Texas HMP, between 1996 and 2016, the County experienced drought-related losses (property plus crop losses) ranging between $143 million and $3.1 billion (State of Texas HMP 2018). Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that impact vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensuring that appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures are in place. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development. • Projected changes in population. • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change. Section 4.3.4: Expansive Soils Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-45 2022 Update Projected Development Any areas of growth could be potentially impacted by the drought hazard because the entire County is exposed and vulnerable to droughts. Future growth and development could impact the amount of potable water available due to a drain on the available water resources. An increased drain on water resources would not only impact the county’s population, but it would also exacerbate impacts to other areas of the county as discussed above, including agriculture and recreational facilities. Projected Changes in Population The County has experienced an increase in population between the 2010 Census (291,309) and the estimated 2019 American Community Survey population of 350,682. The population of the County is expected to increase over the next few years. With an increase in population, the demand for water supply will increase. During a drought, the amount of water needed might not be available. This might require reallocation of water resources to meet demands during a drought. If needed, the County can pass special ordinances regulating the amount of water consumed and used during periods of drought to conserve water. Climate Change Climate change as the potential to impact the number of and the severity of droughts. An increased incidence of drought might impact availability of water supplies, primarily placing an increased stress on the population. It is unlikely that structure exposure and vulnerability would increase as a direct result of drought, although secondary impacts of drought, such as wildfire, could increase and threaten structures. If a wildfire were to occur during a drought, emergency services might face complications from a water shortage depending on their water source, and critical water-related service sectors might need to adjust management practices and actively manage resources. Increased incidence of drought increases the potential for impacts on the local economy, including the production of agricultural products. Change of Vulnerability since the 2017 HMP Since the 2017 HMP, Galveston County has grown in population and the economic value of its agricultural sector. Therefore, the number of people and farms exposed to the hazard has increased. Overall, the County will continue to be exposed and vulnerable to drought events. 4.3.4 Expansive Soils The following section provides the hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the expansive soils hazard in Galveston County. Hazard Profile Description Expansive soils are soils that expand when water is added and shrink when they dry out. This continuous change in soil volume can cause structures to move unevenly and crack and roads and sidewalks to buckle. Soils with a high clay content exhibit high expansive properties. Slab on grade construction is the most susceptible to damage from expansive clays. Location Figure 4-14 provides the expansive soil ratings (in percent) as classified by the USGS. The low range, 0‐3 percent, represents fine sand with little moisture content and thus low linear extensibility. The high range, 9‐17 percent represents clay like soils and is found in areas of Galveston County, Friendswood, League City, and La Marque. Bayou Vista, Clear Lake Shores, Hitchcock, Jamaica Beach, Kemah, Santa Fe, and Tiki Island are located within the low to moderate areas (Galveston County 2017). Section 4.3.4: Expansive Soils Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-46 2022 Update Figure 4-14 Expansive Soil Ratings (Galveston County 2017) Extent Linear extensibility refers to the change in length of an unconfined clod as moisture content is decreased from a moist to a dry state. It is an expression of the volume change as a percentage change for the soil. The amount and type of clay minerals in the soil influence volume change. Figure 4-15 shows soil extensibility ratings in the County. Soil extensibility ratings over 9 percent are considered to be very high. Areas along the Gulf have lower linear extensibility rates in general. Inland soil extensibility rates vary greatly by location. For the high and very high extensibility areas, the extent of damages may include cracking foundations, shifting and/or disruption of underground utilities, and shifting of roadways. Section 4.3.4: Expansive Soils Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-47 2022 Update Figure 4-15 Linear Extensibility of Galveston County Soils Source: (USDA 2021) Worst-Case Scenario A season of flooding with rapid drying conditions such as in a drought would present a worst-case scenario for the expansive soils hazard in areas with a soil extensibility rating over 9; however, since insufficient historical records exist, it is not possible to use previous records to project details surrounding a worst-case scenario in the future. Nevertheless, underground utility pipes, foundations, roadways, and sidewalks would be vulnerable to cracking or buckling, causing damage to the built environment. Previous Occurrences and Losses There is insufficient data on losses from expansive soils in Galveston County, and there are no recorded previous occurrences in the FEMA, NCEI, USGS, or USDA databases. Climate Change Projections Climate change is likely to have significant impacts on the performance of residential buildings constructed on expansive soils. Precipitation and temperature are the primary weather parameters used for determining ground movement (Sun, Li and Zhou 2017). The climate of Texas is changing. Most of the State has warmed between one half and one degree Fahrenheit in the past century. In the eastern two-thirds of the State, average annual rainfall is increasing; however, the soil is becoming drier. Rainstorms are more intense, and floods are becoming more severe. In the coming decades, storms are likely to become more severe in Texas (EPA 2016). Section 4.3.4: Expansive Soils Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-48 2022 Update Probability of Future Events It is anticipated that expansive soils will continue to affect Galveston County. As the frequency of severe weather and drought conditions continues to increase, the probability for future expansive soils changes will likely increase as well. Due to the gradual nature of this hazard and the lack of data on individual expansive soil events, the probability of future events is based on history of occurrences and input from the County. The probability of occurrence for expansive soils affecting the planning area is considered high (100% chance occurring; occurs multiple times a year). Vulnerability Assessment To understand risk, a community must evaluate assets exposed to and vulnerable to the identified hazard. The entire County is vulnerable, but Galveston County, Friendswood, League City, and La Marque, are especially vulnerable. The following text evaluates and estimates the potential impact of the expansive soils hazard in the County as a whole. Impact on Life, Health and Safety The population living in areas of high linear extensibility are considered especially vulnerable to the expansive soils hazard. A quantitative analysis was conducted using expansive soil hazard areas to determine the population living in expansive soils hazard areas. It was found that almost half of the population of Galveston County is exposed to this hazard (Table 4-15). However, exposure should not be limited only to those who reside within a defined hazard zone, but everyone who may be affected by a hazard event (e.g., people are at risk while traveling, people inside of vulnerable buildings, or people whose access emergency services is compromised during an event); the degree of that impact varies and is not strictly measurable. Table 4-15. Population living in the expansive soils hazard area Jurisdiction Total Population (American Community Survey 2015-2019) Estimated Population Located in the Expansive Soils (Linear Extensibility >6%) Hazard Area Number of People Percent of Total Bayou Vista (C) 1,763 1,762 99.9% Clear Lake Shores (C) 1,258 55 4.4% Dickinson (C) 20,847 15,209 73.0% Friendswood (C) 41,213 34,226 83.0% Hitchcock (C) 7,301 6,006 82.3% Jamaica Beach (C) 1,078 0 0.0% Kemah (C) 1,807 526 29.1% La Marque (C) 18,030 16,350 90.7% League City (C) 114,392 49,884 43.6% Santa Fe (C) 12,735 498 3.9% Tiki Island (V) 1,106 0 0.0% Galveston County (Total) 350,682 167,514 47.8% Source: USDA/NRCS 2020 (Linear Extensibility >6%) Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Impact on General Building Stock and Critical Facilities Soils capable of changes in volume present a hazard to structures built over them and to the pipelines, sewer and water lines buried in them. Houses and one‐story commercial buildings are more apt to be damaged by the expansion of swelling clays than are multi‐story buildings, which are usually heavy enough to counter swelling pressures. However, if constructed on wet clay, multi‐story buildings may also be damaged by clay shrinkage when moisture levels are substantially reduced (State of Texas HMP 2018). Figure 4-16 illustrates where the expansive soil hazard areas are located in Galveston County. Section 4.3.4: Expansive Soils Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-49 2022 Update Figure 4-16. USDA/NRCS Expansive Soils Hazard Area – Galveston County Section 4.3.4: Expansive Soils Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-50 2022 Update An estimated 40% of buildings in Galveston County are located in the expansive soils hazard area, with the most vulnerable jurisdictions being Bayou Vista (99.9%), La Marque (89.6%), Friendswood (82.8%), and Hitchcock (80.8%) (Table 4-16). Table 4-16. Building Stock Located in the Expansive Soils Hazard Area Jurisdiction Total Number of Buildings Total Replacement Cost Value (RCV) Estimated Building Stock Located in the Expansive Soils (Linear Extensibility >6%) Hazard Area Number of Buildings Percent of Total Total Replacement Cost Value of Buildings Percent of Total Bayou Vista (C) 1365 $445,354,087.33 1,364 99.9% $445,280,611 100.0% Clear Lake Shores (C) 1155 $904,562,368.66 76 6.6% $204,737,419 22.6% Dickinson (C) 10351 $6,601,710,645.63 7,483 72.3% $5,124,865,418 77.6% Friendswood (C) 14891 $10,815,456,384.12 12,325 82.8% $8,583,015,518 79.4% Hitchcock (C) 5452 $4,592,036,651.86 4,407 80.8% $3,495,801,680 76.1% Jamaica Beach (C) 1291 $458,205,838.82 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Kemah (C) 1634 $2,631,702,105.60 483 29.6% $967,274,297 36.8% La Marque (C) 10749 $7,927,292,522.28 9,633 89.6% $6,799,665,275 85.8% League City (C) 46742 $31,237,974,594.10 20,362 43.6% $13,886,431,057 44.5% Santa Fe (C) 7942 $4,831,628,162.13 321 4.0% $152,788,092 3.2% Tiki Island (V) 868 $365,209,145.44 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Galveston County (Total) 209947 $166,321,604,688.46 85,766 40.9% $62,998,467,572 37.9% Source: USDA/NRCS 2020 (Linear Extensibility >6%), Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing 2018; RS Means 2021 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. While all infrastructures in the higher-risk areas are vulnerable, slab-on-grade structures are most likely to suffer damages from expansive soils. In addition, older structures built to less stringent building codes may be more susceptible to damages than new construction. Bridges, highways, streets, and parking lots are especially vulnerable when they are constructed when clays are dry, such as during a drought, and then subsequent soaking rains swell the clay (State of Texas HMP 2018). Impact on Critical Facilities and Lifelines Expansive soil events may potentially impact critical facilities and lifelines identified within the County. Critical services may not be available if critical facilities or lifelines are directly damaged or transportation routes to access these critical facilities are breached due to expansive soil events. Table 4-17. Critical Facilities and Lifelines Located in the Expansive Soils Hazard Area Jurisdiction Total CFs Located in Jurisdiction Total Lifelines Located in Jurisdiction Number of Critical Facilities and Lifeline Facilities Located in the Expansive Soils (Linear Extensibility >6%) Hazard Area Critical Facilities Percent of Total Critical Facilities Lifelines Percent of Total Lifelines Bayou Vista (C) 5 5 5 100.0% 5 100.0% Clear Lake Shores (C) 24 24 6 25.0% 6 25.0% Dickinson (C) 91 83 74 81.3% 68 81.9% Friendswood (C) 96 82 83 86.5% 69 84.1% Hitchcock (C) 214 212 104 48.6% 102 48.1% Jamaica Beach (C) 11 11 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Kemah (C) 15 14 11 73.3% 11 78.6% La Marque (C) 121 107 83 68.6% 70 65.4% Section 4.3.4: Expansive Soils Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-51 2022 Update Jurisdiction Total CFs Located in Jurisdiction Total Lifelines Located in Jurisdiction Number of Critical Facilities and Lifeline Facilities Located in the Expansive Soils (Linear Extensibility >6%) Hazard Area Critical Facilities Percent of Total Critical Facilities Lifelines Percent of Total Lifelines League City (C) 321 283 156 48.6% 138 48.8% Santa Fe (C) 135 128 16 11.9% 16 12.5% Tiki Island (V) 7 7 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Galveston County (Total) 2,437 2,317 940 38.6% 874 37.7% Source: USDA/NRCS 2020 (Linear Extensibility >6%), Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing 2018; RS Means 2021 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Impact on the Economy Expansive soil events can significantly impact the local and regional economy. Similar to erosion, losses include, but are not limited to, damages to buildings and infrastructure, agricultural losses, business interruption, and disruptions in delivery of service. Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that effect vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensure establishment of appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development • Projected changes in population • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change Projected Development Any areas of growth in Friendswood, League City, and La Marque, could be potentially impacted by the expansive soils hazard because these areas are especially vulnerable. Therefore, any development in these areas will be more susceptible to expansive soil impacts. Projected Changes in Population The County has experienced an increase in population between the 2010 Census (291,309) and the estimated 2019 American Community Survey estimated population of 350,682. Furthermore, the populations of the most vulnerable jurisdictions have increased. The population of the county is expected to increase over the next few years. The increase in population will expose more people to the expansive soils hazard. Climate Change Climate change has the potential to impact the number and severity of droughts. Furthermore, climate change is predicted to increase temperatures, leading to an expansion in atmospheric moisture, resulting in an increased amount of rainfall during storm events. The increasing severity of future droughts and rainfall directly impact the risk potential of expansive soils across the State of Texas (State of Texas HMP 2018). Changes since the 2017 HMP The location of expansive soils within the County has not changed since the Galveston County 2017 HMP. However, the 2017 HMP did not include an analysis of the vulnerable buildings. The analysis suggests that Bayou Vista is especially vulnerable to expansive soils, yet the previous plan stated it was only moderately Section 4.3.5: Extreme Temperature Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-52 2022 Update vulnerable. Furthermore, since the population of the County has increased since the 2017 HMP, more people are vulnerable to the expansive soils hazard. 4.3.5 Extreme Temperature The following section provides the hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the extreme temperature hazard in Galveston County. Profile Hazard Description Extreme temperature includes both heat and cold events, which can have a significant impact to human health, commercial/agricultural businesses, and primary and secondary effects on infrastructure (e.g., burst pipes and power failure). What constitutes extreme cold or extreme heat can vary across different areas of the country, based upon what the population is accustomed. Extreme Heat Extreme heat is defined as summertime temperatures that are much hotter and/or humid than average. Because some areas are hotter than others, extreme heat temperatures depend on what’s considered average for a particular location at that time of year (CDC 2017). A heat wave is a period of abnormally hot weather generally lasting more than two days. Heat waves can occur with or without high humidity. They have potential to cover a large area, exposing a high number of people to hazardous heat (NWS n.d.). Extreme heat during the summer months is a common occurrence in the State of Texas, including Galveston County. Extreme Cold Extreme cold events are when temperatures drop well below normal in an area. What constitutes as extreme cold varies in different parts of the country. In the southern United States, near freezing temperatures are considered extreme cold. Freezing temperatures can cause severe damage to citrus fruit crops and other veg etation. Pipes may freeze and burst in homes that are poorly insulated or without heat (NWS n.d.). Galveston County typically does not experience extreme cold; however, the County does have a history of occurrence for extreme cold temperatures. Extent Extreme Heat The extent of extreme heat temperatures generally is measured through the Heat Index, identified in Figure 4-17. Created by the NWS, the Heat Index is a chart that accurately measures what the temperature feels like to the human body when relative humidity is combined with the air temperature (NWS n.d.). To determine the Heat Index, the temperature and relative humidity are needed. Once both values are identified, the Heat Index is the corresponding number of both the values. This provides a measure of how temperatures feel; however, the values are devised for shady, light wind conditions. Exposure to full sun can increase the index by up to 15 degrees. Relative humidity is the amount of moisture in the air at a certain temperature compared to what the air can “hold” at that temperature…it is measured as a percentage or ratio of the amount of water vapor in a volume of air RELATIVE to a given temperature and the amount it can hold at that given temperature. Warm air can hold more moisture than cold air. Section 4.3.5: Extreme Temperature Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-53 2022 Update Figure 4-17 Heat Index Chart Source: NWS Each National Weather Service office issues some or all of the following heat-related products as conditions warrant (Table 4-18): Table 4-18 National Weather Service Alerts for Extreme Heat Alert Criteria Excessive Heat Warning—Take Action! An Excessive Heat Warning is issued within 12 hours of the onset of extremely dangerous heat conditions. The general rule of thumb for this Warning is when the maximum heat index temperature is expected to be 105° or higher for at least 2 days and night time air temperatures will not drop below 75°; however, these criteria vary across the country, especially for areas not used to extreme heat conditions. If you don't take precautions immediately when conditions are extreme, you may become seriously ill or even die. Excessive Heat Watches—Be Prepared! Heat watches are issued when conditions are favorable for an excessive heat event in the next 24 to 72 hours. A Watch is used when the risk of a heat wave has increased but its occurrence and timing is still uncertain. Heat Advisory—Take Action! A Heat Advisory is issued within 12 hours of the onset of extremely dangerous heat conditions. The general rule of thumb for this Advisory is when the maximum heat index temperature is expected to be 100° or higher for at least 2 days, and night time air temperatures will not drop below 75°; however, these criteria vary across the country, especially for areas that are not used to dangerous heat conditions. Take precautions to avoid heat illness. If you don't take precautions, you may become seriously ill or even die. Excessive Heat Outlooks—Be Aware! The outlooks are issued when the potential exists for an excessive heat event in the next 3-7 days. An Outlook provides information to those who need considerable lead- time to prepare for the event. Extreme Cold The extent (severity or magnitude) of extreme cold temperatures is generally measured through the Wind Chill Temperature (WCT) Index. The WCT Index uses advances in science, technology, and computer modeling to Section 4.3.5: Extreme Temperature Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-54 2022 Update provide an accurate, understandable, and useful formula for calculating the dangers from wind chill. For details regarding the WCT Index, refer to: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/winter/windchill.shtml Figure 4-18. NWS WCT Index Source: (NWS n.d.) The NWS provides alerts when Wind Chill indices approach hazardous levels. Table 4-19 explains these alerts. Table 4-19. National Weather Service Alerts for Extreme Cold Alert Criteria Wind Chill Warning – Take Action! NWS issues a wind chill warning when dangerously cold wind chill values are expected or occurring. If you are in an area with a wind chill warning, avoid going outside during the coldest parts of the day. If you do go outside, dress in layers, cover exposed skin, and make sure at least one other person knows your whereabouts. Update them when you arrive safely at your destination. Wind Chill Watch – Be Prepared NWS issues a wind chill watch when dangerously cold wind chill values are possible. As with a warning, adjust your plans to avoid being outside during the coldest parts of the day. Make sure your car has at least a half a tank of gas and update your winter survival kit. Wind Chill Advisory – Be Aware NWS issues a wind chill advisory when seasonably cold wind chill values, but not extremely cold values are expected or occurring. Be sure you and your loved one’s dress appropriately and cover exposed skin when venturing outdoors. Source: (NWS n.d.) Worst-Case Scenario An extreme temperature event could impact the entire population of Galveston County. The vulnerable populations (over 65 and under 5, below poverty threshold) would be more susceptible to warmer or colder temperatures. Extreme cold temperatures could result injuries associated with an interruption of energy supplies and lack of access to medical care caused by snow or ice. Extreme heat worst-case scenario would be a multi- day event of temperatures with a heat index reaching 113°F, like that experienced in June 2019. Those that are outside could be more vulnerable to heat-related illnesses. Extreme cold worst-case scenario would be a multi- day event of temperatures only reaching 34°F, like that experienced during the February 2021 snow/cold event. Another event like this could lead to power outages, no running water, frozen pipes, and minimal heat sources. Section 4.3.5: Extreme Temperature Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-55 2022 Update Location Extreme temperature events can occur in any area of Galveston County. Metropolitan areas could experience more extreme heat events due to urban heat islands. Heat island describes built up areas that are hotter than nearby rural areas (Figure 4-19). According to the U.S. EPA, the annual mean air temperature of a city with 1 million people or more can be 1.8–5.4°F warmer than its surroundings. In the evening, the difference can be as high as 22°F. Heat islands can affect communities by increasing summertime peak energy demand, air conditioning costs, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, heat-related illness and mortality, and water pollution (EPA 2021). Figure 4-19. Urban Heat Island Source: (NASA/JPL-Caltech 2021) Previous Occurrences and Losses Many sources have provided historical information regarding previous occurrences and losses associated with extreme temperatures in Galveston County. According to the NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database, Galveston County has been impacted by one extreme temperature event between 1996 and 2021. Table 4-20. Extreme Temperature Events in Galveston County, 1996-2021 Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1996 and 2021 Total Fatalities Total Injuries Total Property Damage ($) Total Crop Damage ($) Heat 8 3 0 $0 $0 Cold 1 9 0 $12 million $0 Source: NOAA-NCEI 2021, Galveston HMP 2017 Note: Due to limitations in data, not all extreme temperature events occurring between 1996 and 2021 are accounted for in the tally of occurrences. As a result, the number of hazard occurrences is underestimated Between 1953 and 2021, the State of Texas was included in two extreme temperature-related disaster declarations related to cold temperatures. Of those declarations, Galveston County was included in the February 2021 Severe Winter Storm declaration (DR-4586). Section 4.3.5: Extreme Temperature Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-56 2022 Update According to the Houston/Galveston NWS Station, the local weather data collection center with comprehensive data in the County, the mean number of days between 2000 and 2021 with a daily maximum temperature equal to or greater than 90°F was 67 days. The greatest number of days which the County experienced extreme heat is 31 in 2016, while the highest temperature recorded was 104°F on September 5, 2000. Table 4-21. Monthly Number of Days with Maximum Temperature ≥ 90°F Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 26 9 0 0 0 62 2001 0 0 0 0 0 2 18 19 1 0 0 0 40 2002 0 0 0 0 0 1 11 22 6 1 0 0 41 2003 0 0 0 0 1 5 5 21 1 0 0 0 33 2004 0 0 N/A 0 0 1 12 17 12 0 0 0 N/A 2005 0 0 0 0 2 17 27 29 23 1 0 0 99 2006 0 0 0 0 0 11 12 22 9 1 0 0 55 2007 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 22 7 0 0 0 32 2008 0 0 0 0 0 28 26 19 N/A 0 0 0 N/A 2009 0 0 0 0 0 16 27 30 6 N/A 0 0 N/A 2010 0 0 0 0 1 10 10 31 13 0 0 0 65 2011 0 0 0 1 4 25 30 30 13 0 0 0 103 2012 0 0 0 0 2 11 20 26 8 0 0 0 67 2013 0 0 0 0 0 19 24 19 9 0 0 0 71 2014 0 0 0 0 0 4 22 24 8 0 0 0 58 2015 0 0 0 0 0 5 30 23 5 1 0 0 64 2016 0 0 0 0 0 3 29 19 17 0 0 0 68 2017 0 0 0 0 1 2 22 19 14 5 0 0 63 2018 0 0 0 0 1 18 19 28 4 0 0 0 70 2019 0 0 0 0 0 12 28 30 22 7 0 0 99 2020 0 0 0 1 1 11 26 30 15 0 0 0 84 2021 0 0 0 0 0 15 20 26 16 1 0 N/A N/A Mean 0 0 0 0 1 10 20 24 10 1 0 0 67 Max 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 1 2020 4 2011 28 2008 30 2015 31 2010 23 2005 7 2019 0 2021 0 2020 103 2011 Min 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 0 2000 2 2007 17 2004 1 2003 0 2020 0 2021 0 2020 32 2007 Source: (NWS 2021) Note: N/A = indicates that there is no available data According to the Houston/Galveston NWS Station, the local weather data collection center with comprehensive data in the County, the mean number of days between 2000 and 2021 with a daily maximum temperature equal to or less than 32°F was 2 days. The greatest number of days which the County experienced extreme cold is 8 in 2011, while the lowest temperature recorded was 20°F on February 16, 2021. Table 4-22. Monthly Number of Days with Maximum Temperature ≤ 32°F Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2001 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2002 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2003 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2004 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A 2005 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2007 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2008 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 N/A 2009 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 N/A 2010 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Section 4.3.5: Extreme Temperature Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-57 2022 Update Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 2011 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2014 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 2015 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2017 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2018 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2021 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A Mean 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Max 6 2014 8 2011 2 2002 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 1 2004 9 2011 Min 0 2021 0 2020 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 0 2021 0 2020 0 2020 Source: (NWS 2021) Note: N/A = indicates that there is no available data Climate Change Projections The climate of Texas is changing. Most of the State has warmed between one half and one degree Fahrenheit in the past century. Seventy years from now, Texas is likely to have three or four times as many days per year above 100°F as it has today (EPA 2016). With the increase in temperatures, heat waves will become more frequent and intense, increasing heat-related illness and death, and posing new challenges to the energy system, air quality and agriculture. Probability of Future Occurrences It is anticipated that the County will experience extreme temperature events each year, with a majority of the days being extreme heat days. The probability of future occurrences for extreme temperatures can be determined by assessing historical averages. Based on the information provided by the National Weather Service, the County can expect, on average, approximately 52 days a year with temperatures greater than or equal to 90°F. Additionally, the County can expect, on average, approximately eight days each year with temperatures less than or equal to 32°F. Table 4-23. Probability of Occurrences of Extreme Temperature Events Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 2000 and 2021 % chance of occurrence in any given year Temperature ≥ 90°F 1,084 100% Temperature ≤ 32°F 35 100% Total 1,119 100% Source: (NWS 2021) Notes: Probability was calculated using the available data provided in the National Weather Service data for the Houston/Galveston Station. Disaster occurrences include federally declared disasters since the 1950 Federal Disaster Relief Act and selected extreme temperature events since 1968. Due to limitations in data, not all extreme temperature events occurring between 1954 and 1996 are accounted for in the tally of occurrences. As a result, the number of hazard occurrences is underestimated. Based on historical records and input from the Steering Committee, the probability of occurrence for extreme temperatures in Galveston County is considered frequent (100% chance occurring; occurs multiple times a year). Refer to Section 4.4 for additional information on the hazard ranking methodology and probability criteria. Section 4.3.5: Extreme Temperature Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-58 2022 Update Vulnerability Assessment To understand risk, a community must evaluate what assets are exposed and vulnerable. For the extreme temperature hazard, the entire County has been identified as exposed; therefore, all assets are potentially vulnerable. The following text estimated potential impacts of extreme temperatures on the Galveston County. Impact on Life, Health and Safety The entire population (350,682) of Galveston County is exposed to the extreme temperature hazard. Extreme temperature events have potential health impacts including injury and death. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, populations most at risk to extreme cold and heat events include the following: 1) the elderly, who are less able to withstand temperatures extremes due to their age, health conditions, and limited mobility to access shelters; 2) infants and children up to four years of age; 3) individuals with chronic medical conditions (e.g., heart disease, high blood pressure), 4) low-income persons that cannot afford proper heating and cooling; and 5) the general public who may overexert during work or exercise during extreme heat events or experience hypothermia during extreme cold events (CDC 2017a). The number of people vulnerable to extreme temperatures are presented in Table 4-24. Table 4-24. Vulnerable Populations in Galveston County Jurisdiction Over 65 Percent of Jurisdiction Total Under 5 Percent of Jurisdiction Total Poverty Level Percent of Jurisdiction Total Bayou Vista (C) 619 35.1% 17 1.0% 64 3.6% Clear Lake Shores (C) 304 24.2% 22 1.7% 8 0.6% Dickinson (C) 2,786 13.4% 1,055 5.1% 3,402 16.3% Friendswood (C) 5,648 13.7% 2,517 6.1% 1,611 3.9% Hitchcock (C) 1,054 14.4% 728 10.0% 1,505 20.6% Jamaica Beach (C) 175 16.2% 20 1.9% 90 8.3% Kemah (C) 358 19.8% 152 8.4% 271 15.0% La Marque (C) 2,377 13.2% 767 4.3% 2,227 12.4% League City (C) 10,973 9.6% 7,980 7.0% 5,693 5.0% Santa Fe (C) 2,495 19.6% 792 6.2% 1,501 11.8% Tiki Island (V) 361 32.6% 5 0.5% 57 5.2% Galveston County (Total) 46,103 13.1% 21,140 6.0% 37,264 10.6% Source: 2015-2019 American Community Survey Estimates Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Exposure to excessive heat can pose a number of health risks to individuals. Table 4-25 and Table 4-26 identify different health hazards related to extreme heat conditions. Table 4-25. Health Effects of Extreme Cold Health Hazard Symptoms Wind Chill Wind chill is not the actual temperature but rather how wind and cold feel on exposed skin. As the wind increases, heat is carried away from the body at an accelerated rate, driving down the body temperature. Animals are also affected by wind chill; however, cars, plants and other objects are not. Frostbite Frostbite is damage to body tissue caused by extreme cold. A wind chill of -20°F will cause frostbite in just 30 minutes. Frostbite causes a loss of feeling and a white or pale appearance in extremities, such as fingers, toes, ear lobes or the tip of the nose. If symptoms are detected, get medical help immediately! If you must wait for help, slowly re-warm affected areas. However, if the person is also showing signs of hypothermia, warm the body core before the extremities. Section 4.3.5: Extreme Temperature Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-59 2022 Update Health Hazard Symptoms Hypothermia Hypothermia is a condition brought on when the body temperature drops to less than 95°F. It can kill. For those who survive, there are likely to be lasting kidney, liver, and pancreas problems. Warning signs include uncontrollable shivering, memory loss, disorientation, incoherence, slurred speech, drowsiness, and apparent exhaustion. Source: CDC 2020 Table 4-26. Health Effects of Extreme Heat Health Hazard Symptoms Sunburn Redness and pain. In severe cases: swelling of skin, blisters, fevers, and headaches Dehydration Excessive thirst, dry lips, and slightly dry mucous membranes Heat Cramps Painful spasms, usually in muscles of legs and abdomen, and possible heavy sweating Heat Exhaustion Heavy sweating; weakness; cold, pale, and clammy skin; weak pulse; possible fainting and vomiting Heat Stroke High body temperature (104ºF or higher), hot and dry skin, rapid and strong pulse, and possible coma Source: CDC 2020 Meteorologists can accurately forecast extreme heat and cold event development and the severity of the associated conditions with several days of lead time. These forecasts provide an opportunity for public health and other officials to notify vulnerable populations, implement short-term emergency response actions, and focus on surveillance and relief efforts on those at greatest risk. Adhering to extreme temperature warnings can significantly reduce the risk of temperature-related deaths. Impact on General Building Stock All the building stock in the County is exposed to the extreme temperature hazard. Extreme heat generally does not impact buildings; however, elevated summer temperatures increase the energy demand for cooling. Losses can be associated with the overheating of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. Extreme cold temperature events can damage buildings through freezing/bursting pipes and freeze/thaw cycles, as well as increasing vulnerability to home fires. Additionally, manufactured homes (mobile homes) and antiquated or poorly constructed facilities can have inadequate capabilities to withstand extreme temperatures. Impact on Critical Facilities All critical facilities in the County are exposed to the extreme temperature hazard. Impacts to critical facilities are the same as described for general building stock. Additionally, it is essential that critical facilities remain operational during natural hazard events. Extreme heat events can sometimes cause short periods of utility failures, commonly referred to as brown-outs, due to increased usage from air conditioners and other energy- intensive appliances. Similarly, heavy snowfall and ice storms, associated with extreme cold temperature events, can cause power interruption. Backup power is recommended for critical facilities and infrastructure. Impact on Economy Extreme temperature events also have impacts on the economy, including loss of business function and damage to and loss of inventory. Business-owners can be faced with increased financial burdens due to unexpected repairs caused to the building (e.g., pipes bursting), higher than normal utility bills, or business interruption due to power failure (i.e., loss of electricity, telecommunications). Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that impact vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensuring that appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures are in place. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development. Section 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-60 2022 Update • Projected changes in population. • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change. Projected Development and Change in Population The ability of new development to withstand extreme temperature impacts lies in sound land use practices and consistent enforcement of codes and regulations for new construction. New development will change the landscape where buildings, roads, and other infrastructure potentially replace open land and vegetation. Surfaces that were once permeable and moist are now impermeable and dry. These changes cause urban areas to become warmer than the surrounding areas forming an island of higher temperatures (EPA 2009). Climate Change As the climate warms, extreme cold events might decrease in frequency, while extreme heat events might increase in frequency; the shift in temperatures could also result in hotter extreme heat events. With increased temperatures, vulnerable populations could face increased vulnerability to extreme heat and its associated illnesses, such as heatstroke and cardiovascular and kidney disease. Additionally, as temperatures rise, more buildings, facilities, and infrastructure systems may exceed their ability to cope with the heat. Change of Vulnerability Since the 2017 HMP Overall, the entire County remains vulnerable to extreme temperatures. As existing development and infrastructure continue to age, they can be at increased risk to failed utility systems (e.g., HVAC) if they are not properly maintained. Similarly, an increase in the elderly population remaining in the County increases the vulnerable population. 4.3.6 Flood The following section provides the hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the flood hazard in Galveston County. Profile Hazard Description Floods are one of the most common natural hazards in the U.S. They can develop slowly over a period of days or develop quickly, with disastrous effects that can be local (impacting a neighborhood or community) or regional (affecting entire river basins, coastlines and multiple counties or states) (FEMA 2017). As defined in the State of Texas HMP, floods are the accumulation of water within a water body and the overflow of excess water into adjacent floodplain lands (Texas Division of Emergency Management 2013). In hydrologic analysis, runoff is that portion of rainfall which, in combination with other factors, contributes to the stream flow of any surface drainage way. When runoff exceeds the carrying capacity of the stream or drainage, flooding occurs. Runoff is a product of two major groups of factors, climate and physiographic. Climatic factors may include precipitation, evaporation, transpiration, and interception. Physiographic factors would include the characteristics of the watershed such as size, shape and slope of the basin’s drainage area, the general land use within the basin. Average annual runoff decreases unevenly moving east to west across Texas, the localized variations based on these factors listed above (Texas Division of Emergency Management 2013). Figure 4-20 illustrates the annual average runoff from precipitation across the State. In Galveston County, the average runoff is fourteen to eighteen inches. 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-61 2022 Update Figure 4-20 Annual Average Runoff from Precipitation, in Inches Source: (Texas Division of Emergency Management 2013) When surface water runoff enters into streams, rivers, or dry creek beds, riverine flooding conditions occurs whenever the water carrying capacity of the water channel is compromised by excess runoff (Texas Division of Emergency Management 2013). If the local basin drainage area is relatively flat, shallow, slow-moving floodwater can last for days. In drainage areas with substantial slope, or the channel is narrow and confined, rapidly moving and extreme high water conditions, called a flash flood, can occur (Texas Division of Emergency Management 2013). Types of Flooding Flooding generally takes one of the following forms: • Riverine Flooding—Riverine flooding occurs when rivers overflow their banks in response to excessive precipitation levels and water runoff volumes within the watershed. Riverine floodplains may be broad, as when a river crosses an extensive flat landscape, or narrow, as when a river is confined in a canyon. • Coastal Flooding—Coastal flooding is primarily caused by storm surge, a cascading effect of hurricanes and coastal storms that pushes water toward the shore. The result can be waves that extend further inland, causing damage to development that would not normally be subject to wave action. Storm surge heights, and associated waves, are dependent upon the local width of the continental shelf and the depth of the ocean bottom. A narrow shelf, or one that drops steeply from the shoreline and subsequently produces deep water close to the shoreline, tends to produce a lower surge but higher and more powerful storm waves. Due to the high risk and vulnerability to this flood specific hazard, it was analyzed independently in this chapter rather than as a cascading effect of hurricanes. 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-62 2022 Update • Flash Flooding—Most flash flooding is caused by slow-moving thunderstorms in a local area or by heavy rains associated with hurricanes and tropical storms. However, flash flooding events can also occur from accelerated snow melt due to heavy rains, a dam or levee failure within minutes or hours of heavy amounts of rainfall, or from a sudden release of water held by an ice jam. Although flash flooding occurs often along mountain streams, it is also common in urbanized areas where much of the ground is covered by impervious surfaces. Flash flood waters move at very high speeds, uprooting trees, destroying buildings, and obliterating bridges and roads. • Urban Flooding—Urban flooding occurs when development has obstructed the natural flow of water and decreased the ability of natural groundcover to absorb and retain surface water runoff. Location Flooding potential is influenced by climatology, meteorology, and topography (elevations, latitude, and water bodies and waterways). Flooding potential for each type of flooding that affects the County is described in the subsections below. Coastal Flooding Coastal flooding and storm surge are most likely to affect the southwestern part of the planning area closest to the coastline, including Galveston Island and the Bolivar Peninsula. Riverine Flooding The bayous and creeks are susceptible to riverine flooding during heavy rainfall events. Flash Flooding Flash floods can occur anywhere in the planning area depending on intensity of rainfall, but areas below streams or other bodies of water are more susceptible to flash floods if an embankment fails suddenly. Urban/Stormwater Flooding The entire built planning area may be affected by urban flooding during heavy rainfall events, especially where stormwater drainage infrastructure is aging or becomes blocked. Floodplains A floodplain is defined as the land adjoining the channel of a river, stream, ocean, lake, or other watercourse or water body that becomes inundated with water during a flood. In Galveston County, floodplains line the rivers, streams, and bayous of the County. The boundaries of the floodplains are altered as a result of changes in land use, the amount of impervious surface, placement of obstructing structures in floodways, changes in precipitation and runoff patterns, improvements in technology for measuring topographic features, and utilization of different hydrologic modeling techniques. Source: FEMA 2009 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-63 2022 Update Flood hazard areas are identified as Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA). SFHA are defined as the area that will be inundated by the flood event having a 1 percent chance of being equaled to or exceeded in any given year. The 1 percent annual chance flood is also referred to as the base flood or 100-year flood. A 100-year floodplain is not a flood that will occur once every 100 years; the designation indicates a flood that has a 1-percent chance of being equaled or exceeded each year. Thus, the 100-year flood could occur more than once in a relatively short period of time. Similarly, the moderate flood hazard area (500-year floodplain) will not occur every 500 years but is an event with a 0.2-percent chance of being equaled or exceeded each year (FEMA 2020). The 1-percent annual chance floodplain establishes the area that has flood insurance and floodplain management requirements. Locations of flood zones in the County as depicted on the FEMA preliminary Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) are illustrated in Figure 4-21. Flood hazard zones occur throughout the County, with the largest areas along the bay areas. The Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) data provided by FEMA for the County show the following flood hazard areas: • 1-Percent Annual Chance Flood Hazard: Areas subject to inundation by the 1-percent-annual-chance flood event. This includes Zone AE, and Zone. Mandatory flood insurance requirements and floodplain management standards apply. Base flood elevations are provided in Zone AE. Zone VE (coastal areas) has associated flood depths derived from detailed analyses. • 0.2-Percent Annual Chance Flood Hazard: Area of moderate flood hazard, usually depicted on FIRMs as the 500-year flood level or Shaded X Zone. • 0.2-Percent Annual Chance Flood Hazard: Area of minimal flood hazard, usually depicted on FIRMs as the 500-year flood level or Unshaded X Zone. Flood Map Terms •Flood hazard areas identified on the Flood Insurance Rate Map are identified as a Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA). •SFHA = the area that will be inundated by the flood event having a 1-percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year. •1-percent annual chance flood = the base flood or 100-year flood. •SFHAs are labeled as Zone A, Zone AO, Zone AH, Zones A1- A30, Zone AE, Zone A99, Zone AR, Zone AR/AE, Zone AR/AO, Zone AR/A1-A30, Zone AR/A, Zone V, Zone VE, and Zones V1-V30. •Zone B or Zone X (shaded) = Moderate flood hazard areas and are the areas between the limits of the base flood and the 0.2-percent-annual-chance (or 500-year) flood. •Zone C or Zone X (unshaded) = Areas of minimal flood hazard, which are the areas outside the SFHA and higher than the elevation of the 0.2-percent-annual-chance flood, are labeled Source: (FEMA 2020) 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-64 2022 Update Figure 4-21. FEMA Flood Hazard Areas in Galveston County 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-65 2022 Update Flood Insurance in Galveston County National Flood Insurance Program The unincorporated areas of Galveston County and most the incorporated areas participating in this plan update also participate in the NFIP with nearly 59,000 insurance policies in force providing over $17.2 billion in insurance coverage. According to FEMA statistics, 52,601 flood insurance claims were paid between May 26, 1970 and September 30, 2021, for a total of over $2.1 billion, an average of $40,997 per claim. Table 4-27 lists flood insurance statistics that help identify vulnerability in the planning area. Table 4-27 Flood Insurance Statistics Community Date of Entry Initial FIRM Effective Date # of Flood Insurance Policies as of 09/30/2021 Insurance in Force Total Annual Premium Claims, as of 09/30/2021 Value of Claims paid, as of 09/30/2021 Bayou Vista 04/09/1971 532 $139,915,400 $639,285 137 $3,425,622 Clear Lake Shores 10/23/1970 545 $141,502,700 $442,823 1,199 $26,600,777 Dickinson 04/08/1971 3,911 $1,167,363,200 $2,773,504 2,595 $239,101,802 Friendswood 04/08/1971 6,308 $2,083,467,400 $3,164,154 4,005 $255,175,550 Galveston County (Unincorporated Areas) 03/03/1972 7,518 $2,100,837,400 $9,503,247 16,433 $669,668,372 Galveston (City) 04/09/1971 17,235 $4,255,763,500 $24,979,053 18,072 $770,374,418 Hitchcock 05/26/1970 1,089 $281,539,900 $1,028,541 1,461 $39,676,284 Jamaica Beach 11/17/1970 912 $250,219,900 $970,015 1,573 $22,541,508 Kemah 04/08/1971 634 $194,966,900 $556,068 1,350 $42,403,304 La Marque 06/05/1970 2,007 $567,441,500 $1,167,140 1,640 $32,414,112 League City 05/26/1970 19,704 $6,480,149,700 $9,883,972 5,375 $250,669,561 Santa Fe 06/05/1970 2,029 $623,079,800 $1,018,853 716 $37,010,820 Tiki Island 04/08/1971 443 $120,537,100 $1,752,113 640 $6,519,690 Total - 58,956 $17,239,421,200 $55,105,264 52,601 $2,156,480,018 Properties constructed after a FIRM has been adopted are eligible for reduced flood insurance rates. Such structures are less vulnerable to flooding since they were constructed after regulations and codes were adopted to decrease vulnerability. Properties built before a FIRM is adopted are more vulnerable to flooding because they do not meet code or are located in hazardous areas. The first FIRMs in Galveston County were available in 1971. Repetitive Loss and Severe Repetitive Loss Properties A high priority in Texas and nationwide is the reduction of structures with repetitive losses. These structures strain NFIP. They increase the NFIP’s annual losses and the need for borrowing and, more importantly, they drain resources needed to prepare for catastrophic events. The NFIP defines a repetitive loss property (RL) as “any insurable building for which two or more claims of more than $1,000 were paid by the NFIP within any rolling 10‐year period since 1978. At least, two of the claims must be more than 10‐days apart.” The Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2004 identified another category of repetitive loss. Severe repetitive loss (SRL) is defined as “a single family property (consisting of one‐to‐four residences) that is covered under flood insurance by the NFIP and has incurred flood‐related damage for which four or more separate claim payments (building and contents) have been paid under flood insurance coverage with the amount of each claim payment exceeding $5,000 and with cumulative amount of such claims payments exceeding $20,000; or for which at least two separate claim payments (building payments only) have been made with the cumulative amount of the building portion of such claims exceeding the reported value of the property.” 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-66 2022 Update The resolution of the RL data accessible by the County to support this planning effort was limited by FEMA’s Privacy Act Policies and the time associated with processing the requisite Information Sharing Access Agreement (ISAA). Therefore, data from September 2014 was used to determine how many properties that remain unmitigated are in the program compared to how many have been mitigated (Table 4-28). Table 4-28. Summary of Repetitive Flood Properties by Occupancy Type and Number of Properties Mitigated Community 2-4 Family Assmd. Condo Non- Resident Other Resident Single Family Total RF Properties No. of Mitigated Properties Bayou Vista 0 0 0 0 45 45 9 Clear Lake Shores 1 2 13 1 86 103 53 Dickinson N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 253 N/A Friendswood 1 4 5 2 295 307 129 Hitchcock 0 1 4 0 100 105 34 Jamaica Beach 0 1 0 0 44 45 4 Kemah 2 3 30 3 74 112 79 La Marque 0 1 5 0 69 75 6 League City 1 3 7 2 220 233 111 Santa Fe 0 0 7 1 114 122 11 Tiki Island 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 Total* 5 15 71 9 1,049 1,149 436 *includes totals for participating jurisdictions in the 2022 HMP update; City of Dickinson did not participate in the last plan and data is incomplete. A Countywide action is included in this plan to obtain RL and SRL data for jurisdictions. Community Rating System The CRS is a voluntary program within the NFIP that encourages floodplain management activities that exceed the minimum NFIP requirements. Flood insurance premiums are discounted to reflect the reduced flood risk resulting from community actions meeting the following three goals of the CRS: • Reduce flood losses. • Facilitate accurate insurance rating. • Promote awareness of flood insurance. For participating communities, flood insurance premium rates are discounted in increments of 5 percent. For example, a Class 1 community would receive a 45 percent premium discount, and a Class 9 community would receive a 5 percent discount. (Class 10 communities are those that do not participate in the CRS; they receive no discount.) The discount partially depends on location of the property. Properties outside the SFHA receive smaller discounts: a 10-percent discount if the community is at Class 1 to 6 and a 5-percent discount if the community is at Class 7 to 9. The CRS classes for local communities are based on 18 creditable activities in the following categories: • Public information • Mapping and regulations • Flood damage reduction • Flood preparedness CRS activities can help to save lives and reduce property damage. Communities participating in the CRS represent a significant portion of the nation’s flood risk; over 66 percent of the NFIP’s policy base is located in these communities. Communities receiving premium discounts through the CRS range from small to large and represent a broad mixture of flood risks, including both coastal and riverine flood risks. 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-67 2022 Update Seven cities in the County currently participate in the CRS program, representing 96.3 percent of the planning area policy base. Their CRS status is summarized in Table 4-29. The total annual savings on flood insurance premiums within the planning area is $33.65 million. Many of the mitigation actions identified in this plan are creditable activities under the CRS program. Therefore, successful implementation of this plan offers the potential for these communities to enhance their CRS classifications and for currently non-participating communities to join the program. Table 4-29 CRS Community Status in the Planning Area Community NFIP Community # CRS Entry Date Current CRS Classification % Premium Discount, SFHA/non-SFHA Total Premium Savings Dickinson 481569 10/01/2012 8 10/5 $277,350/$138,675 Friendswood 485468 10/01/1991 7 15/5 $126,963/$158,208 Jamaica Beach 481271 10/01/2018 8 10/5 $97,002/$48,501 Kemah 485481 10/01/1992 8 10/5 $55,607/$27,803 League City 485488 10/01/1992 5 25/10 $2,470,993/$988,397 Tiki Island 481585 10/01/2001 7 15/5 $262,817/$87,606 Extent The severity of a flood event is typically determined by a combination of several factors including stream and river basin topography and physiography; precipitation and weather patterns; recent soil moisture conditions; and degree of vegetative clearing and impervious surface. Generally, floods are long-term events that may last for several days. Regarding the riverine flood hazard, once a river reaches flood stage, flood extent or severity categories used by the NWS include minor flooding, moderate flooding, and major flooding. Each category is defined as follows, based on property damage and level of public threat: • Minor Flooding – minimal or no property damage, but possibly some public threat or inconvenience. • Moderate Flooding – some inundation of structures and roads near streams. Some evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations are necessary. • Major Flooding – extensive inundation of structures and roads. Significant evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations (NWS 2011). USGS uses stream gages to determine the severity of flood at different points along a body of water. There a re eight gages in or near Galveston County. The flood stage is identified for one gage; however, flood stages were not identified for the other gages. The County relies on the gages to determine the height of the river during heavy rain events and to determine whether or not residents need to evacuate. Table 4-30 shows the gages in the County with their determined flood stage and their record flood event. The USGS website provides details about each of the gages (https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php) and the gage heights of flooding events. The NWS provides the different flood stages for the gages (https://water.weather.gov/ahps/). Table 4-30. Stream Gage Statistics for the Vicinity of Galveston County Gage Site Number Site Name Action Stage (feet) Minor Flood Stage (feet) Moderate Flood Stage (feet) Major Flood Stage (feet) Record Flood HCCT2 Clear Creek at Friendswood 7 12 16 21 24.25 ft on 08/29/2017 EPTT2 Tide Station (HGX) at San Leon 3.75 4 4.5 5 N/A GRRT2 Tide Station (HGX) at Galveston Railroad Bridge 3.25 3.5 4 4.5 N/A LUIT2 Tide Station (HGX) at San Luis Pass 3.25 3.5 4 4.5 N/A GTOT2 Tide Station (HGX) at Nos Station Pier 21 Galveston 3.75 4 4.5 5 N/A GNJT2 Tide Station (HGX) at Galveston Bay Entrance North Jetty 3.25 3.5 4 4.5 N/A 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-68 2022 Update Gage Site Number Site Name Action Stage (feet) Minor Flood Stage (feet) Moderate Flood Stage (feet) Major Flood Stage (feet) Record Flood RLOT2 Tide Station (HGX) at Rollover Pass 3.25 3.5 4.5 5 N/A Source: (NWS 2021) N/A: Not Available Worst-Case Scenario Galveston County experienced its worst-case flood scenario in 2017 during Hurricane Harvey. Hurricane Harvey was identified as a 500-year and even a 1,000-year event. Meaning, a storm of this magnitude has a 0.2- annual chance to 0.1-percent annal chance of occurring in any given year. About 7,000 homes and 125 businesses were impacted by flood waters across the county. Many roads were inundated with water. There were numerous water rescues. Stormwater systems were inundated, and pump stations were not able to function properly because their limits were exceeded. This led to closed roadways, damaged infrastructure, ingress, and egress issues, etc. The damages from Hurricane Harvey and the lessons learned from the response and recovery will play a significant role in the County’s preparedness for future events. Previous Occurrences and Losses Many sources have provided historical information regarding previous occurrences and losses associated with flooding in Galveston County. Between 1953 and 2020, FEMA included the State of Texas in 53 flood-related major disaster (DR) or emergency (EM) declarations. Generally, these disasters cover a wide region of the State; therefore, they may have impacted many counties. Galveston County was included in ten of these flood-related declarations; refer to Table 4-31. Table 4-31. Flood-Related FEMA Declarations for Galveston County, 1953 to 2021 FEMA Declaration Number Date(s) of Event Incident Type Incident Title DR-398 July 11, 1973 Flood Severe Storms, Flooding DR-595 July 28, 1979 Flood Storms, Flash Floods DR-603 September 25, 1979 Flood Severe Storms, Flooding DR-1041 October 14-November 8, 1994 Flood Severe Thunderstorms and Flooding DR-1257 October 17-November 15, 1998 Flood Severe Storms, Flooding and Tornadoes DR-1245 September 9-October 5, 1998 Severe Storm Hurricane Georges, Tropical Storm Frances DR-1379 June 5-9, 2001 Coastal Storm Tropical Storm Allison DR-1791 September 12-14 Hurricane Hurricane Ike DR-4245 October 22-31, 2015 Severe Storm Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds, and Flooding DR-4332 August 26-30, 2017 Hurricane Hurricane Harvey Source: FEMA 2021 This HMP update includes known flood events that have impacted Galveston County between 2016 and 2021. These events are shown in Table 4-32, The events listed in Table 4-32 represent only those that were reported to the NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database, FEMA, and the 2017 Galveston County HMP, and may not represent all flood events that have occurred since 2016. For events prior to 2016, refer to the 2017 Galveston County HMP. 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-69 2022 Update Table 4-32. Flood Events in Galveston County, 2016 to 2021 Dates of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number (if applicable) Fatalities Injuries Damages Event Details* April 18, 2016 Flash Flood - - - - Numerous flooded roadways in League City. Flood waters were inundating numerous roads within the city of Galveston. May 19, 2016 Flash Flood - - - - Flash flooding occurred near the intersection of Interstate 45 and 61st Street in Galveston. June 4, 2016 Flash Flood - - - - Harborside Drive was closed due to high water. December 3, 2016 Flash Flood - - - $50,000 Numerous streets were inundated with flood waters nearing homes in Texas City. Impassable roads due to high water included the FM 1764 - Emmett Lowry Parkway and Highway 146 intersection. There were also reports of flooded streets in the town of La Marque. March 29, 2017 Flash Flood - - - - Street flooding was reported across the Friendswood area. April 18, 2017 Flash Flood - - - $104,000 Street flooding was causing vehicles to stall around the College of the Mainland. The Amburn Street and Monticello Drive intersection was flooded and impassable. High flood water was also reported in La Marque at the Gulf Freeway and FM 519 intersection. Water reported in homes at Avenue M 1/2 and 24th Street, north of 32nd Street and on Ave P at 28th Street in Santa Fe. Sections of O and P Avenue near the 28th Street intersection were closed due to flooding. Street flooding was also reported along R, S and T Avenues at the 32nd and 33rd street intersections. Approximately 8 roads were closed and impassable due to flood waters within town limits. May 9, 2016 Coastal Flood - - - - The was minor water over wash at the intersection of Highway 87 and Highway 124 due to the combination of above normal tides and wave run up. December 3, 2016 Coastal Flood - - - $20,000 A prolonged period of easterly winds south of a near coastal warm front produced elevated water levels that inundated sections of Galveston Island, including downtown. Impassable roads due to high water included the intersection of 38th and Winnie Street, 39th and Church Street and the intersection of 51st Street and Harborside Drive. June 21-22, 2017 Tropical Storm - - - - Due to Tropical Storm Cindy, water and debris covered a low lying section of Highway 87 near its intersection with Highway 124 which is an area that is especially vulnerable to coastal flooding. Elsewhere, channels were elevated 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-70 2022 Update Dates of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number (if applicable) Fatalities Injuries Damages Event Details* around Jamaica Beach and other west end communities of Galveston Island, but there was little impact. August 26-30, 2017 Flash Flood DR-4332 3 - $10,000,011,000 Due to Hurricane Harvey, approximately 7,000 homes and 125 businesses were impacted by flood waters across the county. Many roads were inundated with water. There were numerous water rescues. October 20, 2017 Flash Flood - - - - Multiple roadways were flooded and impassable. September 3, 2018 Flash Flood - - - $200,000 Significant flooding occurred on Galveston Island from Jamaica Beach up into the city of Galveston as over 10 inches of rain fell in some spots. There were numerous road closures with at least one washed out roadway in the town of Jamaica Beach. There were reports of water within some structures. September 11, 2018 Flash Flood - - - $100,000 Flooding was reported on the College of the Mainland campus. A few flooded residences had a half of a foot of water in them along Meadowlark Lane in western Texas City and western La Marque. There were numerous street flooding reports. September 11, 2018 Flash Flood - - - - Some roads along Dickinson Bayou were flooded. September 12, 2018 Flash Flood - - - - There was flooding along the Gulf Freeway-Interstate 45 that closed sections of the freeway between the FM 518 and Highway 96 exits. September 14, 2018 Flash Flood - - - - There were flooded roads, with reports of water as high as two feet, around Ball High School. Sections of Harborside Drive-SH 275 from Interstate 45 east to Ferry Road were closed due to high water. September 29, 2018 Flash Flood - - - $50,000 Roads were impassable from the Downtown Galveston area to across parts of the Port Bolivar area. October 24, 2018 Flash Flood - - - - There were reports of water near homes with flooded cars and roadways in Santa Fe, Dickinson, and League City. Some of the flooding occurred as Dickinson Bayou went out of banks at SH 3 near Hughes Road. October 24, 2018 Flash Flood - - - - There were numerous reports of street flooding on the east end of Galveston Island from Scholes Field eastward towards Ferry Road. High water encroached the dorms at Texas A&M-Galveston on Pelican Island with flooding inundating the Strand and points along Harborside Road towards Ferry Road. 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-71 2022 Update Dates of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number (if applicable) Fatalities Injuries Damages Event Details* December 8, 2018 Flash Flood - - - - There was high flood water that caused the intersection of the Gulf Freeway and Highway 96 to become impassable. December 8, 2018 Flash Flood - - - - There were sections of Harborside Drive that became impassable due to high flood waters. December 27, 2018 Coastal Flood - - - - High water impacted several SH 87 locations on the east end of Bolivar. May 7, 2019 Flash Flood - - - - There were numerous reports of either high water in low lying locations or impassable roadways due to flooding. There were flooded roads around Friendswood, League City at the Gulf Freeway and Highway 96, the I-45 feeder roads near FM 646 in Dickinson and in Texas City near the high school. May 9-10, 2019 Flash Flood - - - $20,000 Flash flooding lead to impassable roads that extended from Friendswood and League City down the Gulf Freeway to include, Dickinson, Texas City, and the city of Galveston. One house flooded in Dickinson with some vehicle flooding. Approximately 25 vehicles were flooded in Texas City with some water entering the Heights Elementary School. May 22, 2019 Coastal Flood - - - - Some low-lying beach front roads had some water on them, and water was up to the seawall at some locations. Water was also over parts of the Highway 87 and Highway 124 intersection on the Bolivar Peninsula. September 18, 2019 Flash Flood - - - - Flooding occurred on many roads in the Strand area as water flowed over the curbs and sidewalks. Ferry Road near UTMB became inundated and impassable due to floodwaters. October 24, 2019 Coastal Flood - - - - Frenchtown Road on extreme western Bolivar peninsula near the ferry dock became impassible due to bay water run up during high tide. May 15, 2020 Flash Flood - - - - Numerous roadways were flooded in western Dickinson and southern League City including, but not limited to, the Bayou Lakes, Brentwood Estates and Bay Colony neighborhoods. August 26-27, 2020 Storm Surge/Tide - - - - Flooding of low-lying areas and roads. Beach erosion on Gulf side. Tide gauges measured tides 3 to 4 feet above MHHW. Bolivar Peninsula and Galveston Island, including Jamaica Beach, with multiple roads closed. September 21- 23, 2020 Tropical Storm Beta - - - - Widespread coastal flooding occurred across coastal Galveston County. Flooding was observed in San Leon, 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-72 2022 Update Dates of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number (if applicable) Fatalities Injuries Damages Event Details* Bayou Vista, Clear Lake Shores, and Kemah. The Kemah Boardwalk was flooded. Numerous instances of street flooding and road closures were reported. Heavy rain from the storm resulted in bayou and creek flooding, including Clear Creek. October 9, 2020 Hurricane - - - - Due to Hurricane Delta, high surf and elevated tides lead to mainly minor coastal flooding along Gulf facing beaches and around Galveston Bay. Sources: NOAA-NCEI 2021; State of Texas HMP 2018; Galveston County HMP 2017 * Many sources were consulted to provide an update of previous occurrences and losses; event details and loss/impact information may vary and has been summarized in the above table - Not available/not recorded 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-73 2022 Update Climate Change Projections The climate of Texas is changing. Most of the State has warmed between one half and one degree Fahrenheit in the past century. In the eastern two-thirds of the State, average annual rainfall is increasing; however, the soil is becoming drier. Rainstorms are more intense, and floods are becoming more severe. In the coming decades, storms are likely to become more severe in Texas (EPA 2016). Probability of Future Occurrences Table 4-33 summarizes data regarding the probability of occurrences of flood events in Galveston County based on the historic record. The information used to calculate the probability of occurrences is based on the 2017 Galveston County HMP, the NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database, and FEMA. Table 4-33. Probability of Future Occurrence of Flood Events Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1954 and 2021 % chance of occurrence in any given year Flood 96 100% Source: NOAA-NCEI 2021; FEMA 2021; Galveston County HMP 2017 Note: The total number of events used to calculate the probability of occurrence for flooding in Galveston County includes those listed in the NOAA-NCEI database and FEMA disaster declarations. Any recorded event type that resulted in flooding was including in the number of occurrences. Disaster occurrences include federally declared disasters since the 1950 Federal Disaster Relief Act, and selected flood events since 1968. Due to limitations in data, not all flood events occurring between 1954 and 1996 are accounted for in the tally of occurrences. As a result, the number of hazard occurrences is underestimated. Galveston County is expected to continue experiencing the direct and indirect impacts of flood each year. Ninety-six flood events in 24 years were recorded in Galveston County, giving the County a 100% chance of being impacted by a flood in any given year, with four events occurring each year. Based on historical records and input from the Steering Committee, the probability of occurrence for flood events in the City is considered frequent (100% chance occurring; occurs multiple times a year). Refer to Section 4.4 for additional information on the hazard ranking methodology and probability criteria. Vulnerability Assessment To assess Galveston County’s risk to the flood hazard, a spatial analysis was conducted using the best available spatially delineated flood hazard areas. A quantitative assessment of exposure to the flood hazard was conducted using the asset inventory developed for this plan and two mapped flood areas: • The 1% annual chance flood hazard area; and • The 0.2% annual chance flood hazard area Impact on Life, Health and Safety Impacts of flooding on life, health, and safety depend on several factors including severity of the e vent and whether adequate warning time is provided to residents. Vulnerable populations are all populations residing or located in the floodplain or downstream of dam failures that are incapable of escaping the area within the required timeframe to reach safety. However, exposure should not be limited only to those who reside within a defined hazard zone, but everyone who may be affected by a hazard event (e.g., people are considered at risk if they are traveling in flooded areas, or their access to emergency services is compromised during an event). Flash floods can be localized events that affect areas outside of the floodplain due to localized drainage issues and can directly impact populations and comprise access to emergency services. The degree of that impact varies and is not strictly measurable. 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-74 2022 Update An estimated 103,507 people reside in the 1-percent annual chance event boundary, and 179,463 people within the 0.2-percent annual chance flood boundary. These residents may be displaced by the flooding of their homes, requiring them to seek temporary shelter with friends and family or in emergency shelters. Table 4-34 lists population estimates within flood hazard zones in the County. Table 4-34. Estimated Population Exposed to the Flood Hazard Jurisdiction Total Population 1-Percent Chance Event 0.2-Percent Chance Event Total Number Percent of Total Total Number Percent of Total Bayou Vista (C) 1,763 1,763 100.0% 1,763 100.0% Clear Lake Shores (C) 1,258 1,258 100.0% 1,258 100.0% Dickinson (C) 20,847 13,938 66.9% 19,334 92.7% Friendswood (C) 41,213 2,741 6.6% 7,431 18.0% Hitchcock (C) 7,301 5,440 74.5% 7,254 99.4% Jamaica Beach (C) 1,078 1,078 100.0% 1,078 100.0% Kemah (C) 1,807 1,091 60.4% 1,692 93.6% La Marque (C) 18,030 1,772 9.8% 11,775 65.3% League City (C) 114,392 14,301 12.5% 41,106 35.9% Santa Fe (C) 12,735 543 4.3% 2,112 16.6% Tiki Island (V) 1,106 1,106 100.0% 1,106 100.0% Galveston County (Total) 350,682 103,507 29.5% 176,463 50.3% Sources: American Community Survey 2019 (5-year estimates 2015-2019), FEMA 2018; February 16, 2018 FEMA Effective DFIRM Of the population exposed, the most vulnerable include the economically disadvantaged and the population over age 65. Economically disadvantaged populations are more vulnerable because they are likely to evaluate their risk and make decisions to evacuate based on net economic impacts to their families. The population over age 65 is also more vulnerable because available medical services may be disrupted, and they are more likely to seek or need medical attention that may not be available due to isolation during a flood event. They also may have more difficulty evacuating. Table 4-35 presents the estimated potential sheltering needs as a result of the 1- percent and 0.2-percent flood events. Table 4-35. Estimated Population Displaced or Seeking Short-Term Shelter from Flood Events Jurisdiction Total Population 1-Percent Annual Chance Flood Event 0.2-Percent Annual Chance Flood Event Displaced Population Persons Seeking Short-Term Sheltering Displaced Population Persons Seeking Short-Term Sheltering Bayou Vista (C) 1,763 0 0 0 0 Clear Lake Shores (C) 1,258 70 7 102 9 Dickinson (C) 20,847 3,736 452 11,566 1,253 Friendswood (C) 41,213 2,838 1,061 6,123 1,237 Hitchcock (C) 7,301 241 59 4,590 700 Jamaica Beach (C) 1,078 0 0 27 2 Kemah (C) 1,807 0 0 1,131 229 La Marque (C) 18,030 708 106 8,241 742 League City (C) 114,392 5,555 1,608 31,547 4,946 Santa Fe (C) 12,735 661 189 2,456 431 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-75 2022 Update Jurisdiction Total Population 1-Percent Annual Chance Flood Event 0.2-Percent Annual Chance Flood Event Displaced Population Persons Seeking Short-Term Sheltering Displaced Population Persons Seeking Short-Term Sheltering Tiki Island (V) 1,106 0 0 205 15 Galveston County (Total) 350,682 17,125 4,447 100,532 14,409 Source: American Community Survey 2019 (5-year estimates 2015-2019), FEMA 2018; February 16, 2018 FEMA Effective DFIRM Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Total numbers of injuries and casualties resulting from typical riverine flooding are generally limited based on advance weather forecasting, blockades, and warnings. Injuries and deaths generally are not anticipated if proper warning and precautions occur. In contrast, warning time for dam failure events or flash flooding is limited. These events are frequently associated with other natural hazard events such as earthquakes, landslides, or severe weather, which limits their predictability and compounds the hazard. Populations without adequate warning of the event are highly vulnerable to this hazard; this includes populations downstream of a dam failure event that cannot evacuate within the allowable time frame. The population adversely affected by a dam failure event can also include those beyond the disaster area that rely on the dam for providing potable water. Like riverine flooding, economically disadvantaged populations and the elderly are more vulnerable to impacts from a sudden dam failure event or flash flooding. Cascading impacts may also include exposure to pathogens such as mold. After flood events, excess moisture and standing water contribute to the growth of mold in buildings. Mold may present a health risk to building occupants, especially those with already compromised immune systems such as infants, children, the elderly and pregnant women. The degree of impact will vary and is not strictly measurable. Molds can grow in as short a period as 24-48 hours in wet and damaged areas of buildings that have not been properly cleaned. Very small mold spores can easily be inhaled, creating the potential for allergic reactions, asthma episodes, and other respiratory problems. Buildings should be properly cleaned and dried out to safely prevent mold growth (CDC 2017). Molds and mildews are not the only public health risk associated with flooding. Floodwaters can be contaminated by pollutants such as sewage, human and animal feces, pesticides, fertilizers, oil, asbestos, and rusting building materials. Common public health risks associated with flood events also include: • Unsafe food • Contaminated drinking and washing water and poor sanitation • Mosquitos and animals • Carbon monoxide poisoning • Secondary hazards associated with re-entering/cleaning flooded structures • Mental stress and fatigue (CDC 2012) Current loss estimation models such as Hazus v4.2 cannot measure public health impacts. The best ways to mitigate these impacts are to be aware that they can occur, educate the public on prevention, and be prepared to deal with these vulnerabilities in responding to flood events. Impact on General Building Stock To assess potential impacts on buildings, both exposure (located in the hazard area) and estimated loss to the exposed inventory generated by Hazus v4.2 were examined for the three flood scenarios. Table 4-36 and Table 4-37 summarizes the results. 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-76 2022 Update Table 4-36. Estimated General Building Stock Exposure to a 1-Percent Annual Chance Flood Event Jurisdiction Total Number of Buildings Total Replacement Cost Value (RCV) Estimated Building Stock Located in the Flood Hazard Area Number of Buildings Located in the Hazard Area Percent of Total Total RCV of Buildings Located in the Hazard Area Percent of Total Bayou Vista (C) 1365 $445,354,087.33 1,365 100.0% $445,354,087 100.0% Clear Lake Shores (C) 1155 $904,562,368.66 1,153 99.8% $724,937,594 80.1% Dickinson (C) 10351 $6,601,710,645.63 6,848 66.2% $4,296,054,522 65.1% Friendswood (C) 14891 $10,815,456,384.12 983 6.6% $698,448,414 6.5% Hitchcock (C) 5452 $4,592,036,651.86 3,854 70.7% $2,857,796,355 62.2% Jamaica Beach (C) 1291 $458,205,838.82 1,291 100.0% $458,205,839 100.0% Kemah (C) 1634 $2,631,702,105.60 940 57.5% $1,977,207,949 75.1% La Marque (C) 10749 $7,927,292,522.28 1,015 9.4% $593,214,455 7.5% League City (C) 46742 $31,237,974,594.10 5,887 12.6% $4,443,465,559 14.2% Santa Fe (C) 7942 $4,831,628,162.13 390 4.9% $225,325,480 4.7% Tiki Island (V) 868 $365,209,145.44 868 100.0% $365,209,145 100.0% Galveston County (Total) 209947 $166,321,604,688.46 81,490 38.8% $73,043,916,760 43.9% Source: Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing 2018; RS Means 2021, FEMA 2018; February 16, 2018 FEMA Effective DFIRM Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County Table 4-37. Estimated General Building Stock Exposure to a 0.2-Percent Annual Chance Flood Event Jurisdiction Total Number of Buildings Total Replacement Cost Value (RCV) Estimated Building Stock Located in the Flood Hazard Area Number of Buildings in Hazard Area Percent of Total Total Replacement Cost Value of Buildings in Hazard Area Percent of Total Bayou Vista (C) 1365 $445,354,087.33 1,365 100.0% $445,354,087 100.0% Clear Lake Shores (C) 1155 $904,562,368.66 1,155 100.0% $904,562,369 100.0% Dickinson (C) 10351 $6,601,710,645.63 9,656 93.3% $6,240,616,132 94.5% Friendswood (C) 14891 $10,815,456,384.12 2,677 18.0% $2,128,680,168 19.7% Hitchcock (C) 5452 $4,592,036,651.86 5,380 98.7% $4,453,984,059 97.0% Jamaica Beach (C) 1291 $458,205,838.82 1,291 100.0% $458,205,839 100.0% Kemah (C) 1634 $2,631,702,105.60 1,533 93.8% $2,582,447,999 98.1% La Marque (C) 10749 $7,927,292,522.28 6,857 63.8% $4,355,120,524 54.9% League City (C) 46742 $31,237,974,594.10 17,035 36.4% $12,600,904,732 40.3% Santa Fe (C) 7942 $4,831,628,162.13 1,318 16.6% $687,674,130 14.2% Tiki Island (V) 868 $365,209,145.44 868 100.0% $365,209,145 100.0% Galveston County (Total) 209947 $ 166,321,604,688 124,067 59.1% $104,723,627,795 63.0% Source: Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing 2018; RS Means 2021, FEMA 2018; February 16, 2018 FEMA Effective DFIRM 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-77 2022 Update Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County NFIP Statistics A property is considered a repetitive loss (RL) property when there are “two or more losses reported which were paid more than $1,000 for each loss. The two losses must be within 10 years of each other and be at least 10 days apart. Only losses from (sic since) 1/1/1978 that are closed are considered. A severe repetitive loss (SRL) property is defined as a residential property covered under an NFIP flood insurance policy, and satisfying either of conditions 1 and 2, as well as condition 3 (Section 1361A of the National Flood Insurance Act 42 United States Code 4102a): 1. “At least four NFIP claim payments for the property (including building and contents) over $5,000 each have occurred, and the cumulative amount of such claims payments exceeded $20,000. 2. At least two separate claims payments for the property (building payments only) have occurred, and the cumulative amount of the building portion of such claims exceeded the market value of the building. 3. For either of the above, at least two of the referenced claims must have occurred within any 10-year period and must have occurred more than 10 days apart”. Table 4-38 summarizes the NFIP policies, losses, and claims statistics in Galveston County. In total, 62,867 residents are NFIP policy holders in the County, and there have been 55,196 claims totaling over $2.3 billion. These statistics show the economic benefits of participating in the NFIP to insure homes in flood hazard areas of the County. Table 4-38. NFIP Policies, Claims and Repetitive Loss Statistics Jurisdiction Total Policies (Direct + Write Your Own) Total Losses (Direct + Write Your Own) Total Claims Paid (Direct + Write Your Own) Bayou Vista (C) 532 137 $3,425,622 Clear Lake Shores (C) 545 1,199 $26,600,777 Dickinson (C) 3,911 2,595 $239,101,802 Friendswood (C) 6,308 4,005 $255,175,550 Hitchcock (C) 1,089 1,461 $39,676,284 Jamaica Beach (C) 912 1,573 $22,541,508 Kemah (C) 634 1,350 $42,403,304 La Marque (C) 2,007 1,640 $32,414,112 League City (C) 19,704 5,375 $250,669,561 Santa Fe (C) 2,029 716 $37,010,820 Tiki Island (V) 443 640 $6,519,690 Galveston County (Total) 62,867 55,196 $2,395,581,821 Source: FEMA 2022 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Impact on Critical Facilities It is important to determine the critical facilities and infrastructure within the County that may be at risk to flooding (riverine, dam failure, flash/stormwater flooding), and who may be impacted should damage occur. Critical services during and after a flood event may not be available if critical facilities are directly damaged or transportation routes to access these critical facilities are impacted. Roads that are blocked or damaged can isolate residents and can prevent access throughout the planning area to many service providers needing to get 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-78 2022 Update to vulnerable populations or to make repairs. Utilities such as overhead power, cable, and phone lines could also be vulnerable due to utility poles damaged by standing water or the surge of water from a dam failure event. Loss of these utilities could create additional isolation issues for the inundation zones. Critical facility exposure to the flood hazard was examined. In addition, Hazus v4.2 was used to estimate the flood loss potential to critical facilities exposed to the flood risk. Table 4-39 and Table 4-40 summarizes these results. Table 4-39. Critical Facility Types Located in the 1% Annual Chance Flood Hazard Area and Damages Jurisdiction Total Critical Facilities Located in Jurisdiction Total Lifelines Located in Jurisdiction Number of Critical Facilities and Lifeline Facilities Located in the 1-Percent Annual Chance Flood Event Hazard Area Critical Facilities Percent of Total Critical Facilities Lifelines Percent of Total Lifelines Bayou Vista (C) 5 5 5 100.0% 5 100.0% Clear Lake Shores (C) 24 24 22 91.7% 22 91.7% Dickinson (C) 91 83 63 69.2% 59 71.1% Friendswood (C) 96 82 20 20.8% 20 24.4% Hitchcock (C) 214 212 143 66.8% 142 67.0% Jamaica Beach (C) 11 11 11 100.0% 11 100.0% Kemah (C) 15 14 12 80.0% 11 78.6% La Marque (C) 121 107 30 24.8% 30 28.0% League City (C) 321 283 94 29.3% 94 33.2% Santa Fe (C) 135 128 9 6.7% 9 7.0% Tiki Island (V) 7 7 7 100.0% 7 100.0% Galveston County (Total) 2,437 2,317 1,346 55.2% 1,324 57.1% Source: Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing 2018; RS Means 2021, FEMA 2018; February 16, 2018 FEMA Effective DFIRM Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Table 4-40. Critical Facility Types Located in the 0.2% Annual Chance Flood Hazard Area and Damages Jurisdiction Total CFs Located in Jurisdiction Total Lifelines Located in Jurisdiction Number of Critical Facilities and Lifeline Facilities Located in the 0.2-Percent Annual Chance Flood Event Hazard Area Critical Facilities Percent of Total Critical Facilities Lifelines Percent of Total Lifelines Bayou Vista (C) 5 5 5 100.0% 5 100.0% Clear Lake Shores (C) 24 24 24 100.0% 24 100.0% Dickinson (C) 91 83 87 95.6% 79 95.2% Friendswood (C) 96 82 30 31.3% 30 36.6% Hitchcock (C) 214 212 207 96.7% 205 96.7% Jamaica Beach (C) 11 11 11 100.0% 11 100.0% Kemah (C) 15 14 15 100.0% 14 100.0% La Marque (C) 121 107 74 61.2% 66 61.7% 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-79 2022 Update Jurisdiction Total CFs Located in Jurisdiction Total Lifelines Located in Jurisdiction Number of Critical Facilities and Lifeline Facilities Located in the 0.2-Percent Annual Chance Flood Event Hazard Area Critical Facilities Percent of Total Critical Facilities Lifelines Percent of Total Lifelines League City (C) 321 283 161 50.2% 149 52.7% Santa Fe (C) 135 128 33 24.4% 33 25.8% Tiki Island (V) 7 7 7 100.0% 7 100.0% Galveston County (Total) 2,437 2,317 1,748 71.7% 1,696 73.2% Source: Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing 2018; RS Means 2021, FEMA 2018; February 16, 2018 FEMA Effective DFIRM Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County Impact on the Economy Flood events can significantly impact the local and regional economy. This includes but is not limited to general building stock damages and associated tax loss, impacts to utilities and infrastructure, agricultural losses, business interruption, and effects on tourism. In areas that are directly flooded, renovations of commercial and industrial buildings may be necessary, disrupting associated services. Refer to the section earlier which discusses direct impacts to buildings in the County. Flooding can cause extensive damage to public utilities and disruptions to delivery of services. Loss of power and communications may occur and drinking water and wastewater treatment facilities may be temporarily out of operation. Debris management may also be a large expense after a flood event. Hazus v4.2 estimates the amount of structural debris generated during a flood event. The model breaks down debris into three categories: (1) finishes (dry wall, insulation, etc.); (2) structural (wood, brick, etc.); and (3) foundations (concrete slab and block, rebar, etc.). These distinctions are necessary because of the different types of equipment needed to handle debris. Table 4-41 and Table 4-42 summarize the Hazus v4.2 countywide debris estimates for the 1-percent and 0.2- percent annual chance flood events. Please note that this table only estimates structural debris generated by flooding and does not include non-structural debris or additional potential damage and debris possibly generated by wind that may be associated with a flood event or storm that causes flooding. Table 4-41. Estimated Debris Generated from a 1-Percent Chance Annual Flood Jurisdiction 1-Percent Annual Chance Flood Event Total (tons) Finish (tons) Structure (tons) Foundation (tons) Bayou Vista (C) 0 0 0 0 Clear Lake Shores (C) 4,030 710 1,689 1,630 Dickinson (C) 9,834 7,351 868 1,615 Friendswood (C) 22,367 11,295 5,162 5,910 Hitchcock (C) 4,113 1,269 1,835 1,009 Jamaica Beach (C) 0 0 0 0 Kemah (C) 0 0 0 0 La Marque (C) 2,745 1,613 603 529 League City (C) 58,291 20,090 17,576 20,626 Santa Fe (C) 2,195 1,524 312 360 Tiki Island (V) 0 0 0 0 Galveston County (Total) 141,754 58,635 40,584 42,536 4.3.6: Flood Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-80 2022 Update Source: Hazus v4.2 *Calculated using a Census block level, general building stock (GBS) analysis in Hazus 4.2 SP03 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Table 4-42. Estimated Debris Generated from a 0.2-Percent Chance Annual Flood Jurisdiction 0.2-Percent Annual Chance Flood Event Total (tons) Finish (tons) Structure (tons) Foundation (tons) Bayou Vista (C) 0 0 0 0 Clear Lake Shores (C) 13,729 2,523 6,207 5,000 Dickinson (C) 23,199 17,746 2,263 3,190 Friendswood (C) 24,423 13,370 5,154 5,898 Hitchcock (C) 16,060 8,858 3,996 3,206 Jamaica Beach (C) 3,260 785 1,481 994 Kemah (C) 79,700 13,835 44,548 21,317 La Marque (C) 15,049 12,425 1,382 1,242 League City (C) 120,544 61,619 27,403 31,522 Santa Fe (C) 3,792 2,812 436 545 Tiki Island (V) 15,246 3,288 6,848 5,110 Galveston County (Total) 681,783 260,427 244,604 176,753 Source: Hazus v4.2 *Calculated using a Census block level, general building stock (GBS) analysis in Hazus 4.2 SP03 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Impact on the Environment Floodplains serve beneficial and natural functions on ecological, environmental, social, and economic levels. Areas in the floodplain that typically provide these natural functions and benefits are wetlands, riparian areas, sensitive areas, and habitats for rare and endangered species. Floods, however, can also lead to negative impacts on the environment. Disruption of natural systems and the benefits they provide can have long-term consequences for entire regions. According to FEMA, well-known, water-related functions of floodplains include the following: • Natural flood and erosion control • Provide flood storage and conveyance • Reduce flood velocities • Reduce flood peaks • Reduce sedimentation • Surface water quality maintenance • Process organic wastes • Moderate temperatures of water • Groundwater recharge • Filter nutrients and impurities from runoff • Promote infiltration and aquifer recharge • Reduce frequency and duration of low-surface flows Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that impact vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensuring that appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures are in place. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development • Projected changes in population • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change Projected Development Any areas of growth could be impacted by the flood hazard if located in the floodplain. The Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance regulates not only how land in designated floodplain areas may be used or altered, but the location and types of structures that are permitted in those areas as well as the specifications to which they must 4.3.7: Hail Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-81 2022 Update build. All structures, including residential and commercial properties, manufactured homes, and the developments of subdivisions are regulated. Projected Changes in Population The County has experienced an increase in population between the 2010 Census (291,309) and the estimated 2019 American Community Survey estimated population of 350,682. The population of the County is expected to increase over the next few years. The increase in population will expose more people to the flood hazard, especially those living in and around flood hazard areas. Climate Change Increases in precipitation may alter and expand the floodplain boundaries and runoff patterns, resulting in the exposure of populations, buildings, and critical facilities and infrastructure that were previously outside the floodplain. This increase in exposure would result in an increased risk to life and health, an increase in structural losses, a diversion of additional resources to response and recovery efforts, and an increase in business closures affected by future flooding events due to loss of service or access. Change of Vulnerability Since the 2017 HMP Galveston County continues to be vulnerable to flood storms. While flood models were run for the 2017 HMP, the population has increased since then. Furthermore, the vulnerability of the building stock was not assessed. The 2022 updated therefore provides more accurate estimated exposure and potential losses due to flooding for Galveston County. 4.3.7 Hail The following section provides the hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the hail hazard in Galveston County. Profile Hazard Description Hail forms inside a thunderstorm where there are strong updrafts of warm air and downdrafts of cold water. If a water droplet is picked up by the updrafts, it can be carried well above the freezing level. Water droplets freeze when temperatures reach 32 °F or colder. As the frozen droplet begins to fall, it might thaw as it moves into warmer air toward the bottom of the thunderstorm, or the droplet might be picked up again by another updraft and carried back into the cold air to re-freeze. With each trip above and below the freezing level, the frozen droplet adds another layer of ice. The frozen droplet, with many layers of ice, falls to the ground as hail. Figure 4-22 shows the hail formation process. Most hail is small and typically less than two inches in diameter (NOAA NWS 2009) Section 4.3.7 - Hail Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-82 2022 Update Figure 4-22 Hail Formation Source: Encyclopedia Britannica 2012 Figure 4-23 shows the annual frequency of hailstorms in the United States as recorded from 2003 to 2012. Hailstorms have been observed in almost every location where thunderstorms occur throughout the United States. They are most frequent in the southern and central plain states where the climate produces violent thunderstorms. The figure shows that Galveston County experiences between one and five severe hail days each year. Severe hail day is defined as a day with at least one report of one-inch or more hail within 25 miles. Location All of Galveston County is exposed and vulnerable to hail. Extent The severity of hail is measured by duration, hail size, and geographic extent. Most hail stones from hail events are made up of variety of sizes. Only the very largest hail stones pose serious risk to people, if exposed. The size of hail is estimated by comparing it to a known object. Table 4-43 shows the different sizes of hail and the comparison to real-world objects. Section 4.3.7 - Hail Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-83 2022 Update Figure 4-23. Severe Hail Days Per Year from 2003-2012 Source: SPC 2020 Table 4-43 Hail Size Size Inches in Diameter Pea 0.25 inch Small Marble 0.50 inch Penny or Large Marble 0.75 inch Nickel 0.875 inch Quarter 1.0 inch Ping-Pong Ball 1.5 inches Golf Ball 1.75 inches Hen Egg 2.5 inches Tennis Ball 2.75 inches Baseball 3.0 inches Teacup 4.0 inches Grapefruit inches Source: NOAA 2021 The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) Hailstorm Intensity Scale (H0 to H10) relates typical damage and hail sizes. Table 4-44. TORRO Hailstorm Intensity Scale TORRO Hailstorm Intensity Scale Intensity Category Typical Hail Diameter (mm) Typical Damage Impacts H0 Hard Hail 5 No damage H1 Potentially Damaging 5-15 Slight general damage to plants, crops H2 Significant 10-20 Significant damage to fruit, crops, vegetation Section 4.3.7 - Hail Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-84 2022 Update TORRO Hailstorm Intensity Scale Intensity Category Typical Hail Diameter (mm) Typical Damage Impacts H3 Severe 20-30 Severe damage to fruit and crops, damage to glass and plastic structures, paint and wood scored H4 Severe 25-40 Widespread glass damage, vehicle bodywork damage H5 Destructive 30-50 Wholesale destruction of glass, damage to tiled roofs, significant risk of injuries H6 Destructive 40-60 Bodywork of grounded aircraft dented; brick walls pitted H7 Destructive 50-75 Severe roof damage, risk of serious injuries H8 Destructive 60-90 (Severest recorded in the British Isles) Severe damage to aircraft bodywork H9 Super Hailstorms 75-100 Extensive structural damage. Risk of severe or even fatal injuries to persons caught in the open H10 Super Hailstorms >100 Extensive structural damage. Risk of severe or even fatal injuries to persons caught in the open Source: TORRO 2021 Worst-Case Scenario Hail usually occurs with a thunderstorms. A worst-case scenario would be a severe thunderstorm producing large hail (quarter-size [1-inch] and larger). This event would be a H3 (severe) hailstorm event on the TORRO intensity scale. An event like this can cause severe damage to fruit and crops, damage to glass and plastic structures, paint and wood scored, and damage to roofs. The aftermath of a severe hail event could lead to millions of dollars in damages. Previous Occurrences and Losses Many sources have provided historical information regarding previous occurrences and losses associated with hail events in Galveston County. According to the NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database, Galveston County has been impacted by 120 hail events between 1950 and 2020 that caused more than $3 million in property damage (refer to Table 4-45). Table 4-45. Hail Events in Galveston County, 1950-2021 Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1957 and 2020 Total Fatalities Total Injuries Total Property Damage ($) Total Crop Damage ($) Hail 120 0 0 $3,022,510 $0 Source: NOAA-NCEI 2021 Note: Due to limitations in data, not all thunderstorm wind events occurring between 1950 and 2021 are accounted for in the tally of occurrences. As a result, the number of hazard occurrences is underestimated Between 1953 and 2021, the State of Texas was included in five hail-related major disaster (DR) or emergencies (EM) declarations. Of those declarations, Galveston County was not included in any of those declarations. This HMP update includes known hail events that have impacted Galveston County between 2016 and 2021. These events are shown in Table 4-46. The events listed in Table 4-46 represent only those that were reported to the NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database, FEMA, and the 2017 Galveston County HMP, and may not represent all hail events that have occurred in the County. For events prior to 2016, refer to the 2017 Galveston County HMP. Table 4-46. Hail Events in Galveston County, 2016 to 2021 Date(s) of Event Event Type Magnitude Fatalities Injuries Damages Event Details* January 8, 2016 Hail 0.75 - - $0 Penny sized hail occurred to the northwest of La Marque. Section 4.3.7 - Hail Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-85 2022 Update Date(s) of Event Event Type Magnitude Fatalities Injuries Damages Event Details* April 13, 2016 Hail 1.0 - - $0 The quarter size hail was reported in Friendswood. April 13, 2016 Hail 0.75 - - $0 The dime size hail was reported in League City. May 2, 2016 Hail 1.0 - - $0 Quarter size hail was reported near the intersection of 67th Street and Heards Lane. February 26, 2019 Hail 0.88 - - $0 There were various reports of pea to nickel sized hail. May 28, 2020 Hail 0.7 - - $10 Dime sized hail was observed in Texas City. January 6, 2021 Hail 1.0 - - - Severe hail (1 in.) was observed by a member of the public as a squall line moved through Galveston County. Source(s): FEMA 2021; NOAA-NCEI 2021; Galveston County 2017 * Many sources were consulted to provide an update of previous occurrences and losses; event details and loss/impact information may vary and has been summarized in the above table FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency HMP Hazard Mitigation Plan NCEI National Centers for Environmental Information Climate Change Projections The climate of Texas is changing. Most of the State has warmed between one half and one degree Fahrenheit in the past century. In the eastern two-thirds of the State, average annual rainfall is increasing; however, the soil is becoming drier. Rainstorms are more intense, and floods are becoming more severe. In the coming decades, storms are likely to become more severe in Texas (EPA 2016). While predicting the trends of hail as a result of climate change is difficult, it is anticipated that more frequent and intense will occur. Some of these storms can bring hail. Probability of Future Occurrences Table 4-47 summarizes data regarding the probability of occurrences of hail events in Galveston County based on the historic record. The information used to calculate the probability of occurrences is based on the NOAA- NCEI Storm Events Database, FEMA, and the 2017 Galveston HMP, including only those events that identified hail occurring in the County. Table 4-47. Probability of Future Occurrence of Hail Events Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1954 and 2021 % chance of occurrence in any given year Hail 120 100% Source: NOAA-NCEI 2021; FEMA 2021; Galveston HMP 2017 Note: Disaster occurrences include federally declared disasters since the 1950 Federal Disaster Relief Act, and selected hail events since 1968. Due to limitations in data, not all hail events occurring between 1954 and 1996 are accounted for in the tally of occurrences. As a result, the number of hazard occurrences is underestimated. Galveston County is expected to continue experiencing the direct and indirect impacts of hail events each year. The County experienced 120 hail incidents in 67 years, giving the County a 100% chance of being impacted by a hail incident in any given year. Based on historical records and input from the Steering Committee, the probability of occurrence for hail events in the County is considered frequent (100% chance occurring; occurs multiple times a year). Refer to Section 4.4 for additional information on the hazard ranking methodology and probability criteria. Section 4.3.7 - Hail Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-86 2022 Update Vulnerability Assessment To understand risk, a community must evaluate assets exposed to and vulnerable to the identified hazard. The entirety of Galveston County is exposed and vulnerable to the hail hazard; therefore, all assets within the County (population, structures, critical facilities, and lifelines), as described in Section 3 (County Profile), are potentially vulnerable to a hail event. The following text evaluates and estimates the potential impact of the hail hazard in the County. Impact on Life, Health and Safety The impact of hail events on life, health, and safety is dependent upon several factors including the severity of the event and whether adequate warning time was provided to residents. The entire population of Galveston County (350,682) is assumed to be exposed to this hazard (U.S. Census 2017 ACS 5-Year Population Estimate). People are vulnerable to the effects of hail events, including injuries, power outages, impacts on transportation routes, damage to homes, and damage to vehicles. First responders are also at risk of being injured during a significant hail event if they are responding to an incident. People located outdoors (e.g. recreational activities, farming, emergency responders) are considered most vulnerable to hailstorms because there is little to no warning time, and shelter might not be available. Moving to a lower risk location can decrease a person’s vulnerability. Impact on General Building Stock Depending on the size of the hail and severity of the storm, the County could see damage from hail impacting structures. While damage to the building stock is possible as a result of hail, it is difficult to estimate and would not have as wide of an impact as a high wind or tornado event. Impact on Critical Facilities All critical facilities in Galveston County are vulnerable to being affected by hail events. Impact on Economy Hail-producing severe storms impact the economy; impacts include loss of business function, damage to inventory, relocation costs, wage loss, and rental loss due to the repair or replacement of buildings. Additionally, vehicles parked outdoors are vulnerable to hail damage and could increase economic impacts of a storm. The 2016 HMP predicted that annual property losses due to hail would amount to $31,554 (Galveston County 2016 HMP). Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that effect vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensure establishment of appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development. • Projected changes in population. • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change. Projected Development Any areas of growth could be potentially impacted by the hail hazard because the entire County is exposed and vulnerable. Section 4.3.8 - Hurricane and Tropical Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-87 2022 Update Projected Changes in Population The County has experienced an increase in population between the 2010 Census (291,309) and the estimated 2015-2019 American Community Survey estimated population of 350,682. The population of the County is expected to further increase over the next few years. The increase in population will expose more people to the hail hazard. Climate Change The entire State of Texas is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme storms and rainfall. Major clusters of summertime thunderstorms in North America will grow larger, more intense, and more frequent later this century in a changing climate, unleashing far more rain and posing a greater threat of flooding across wide areas (UCAR 2017). Section 4.3.7 (Flood) provides a discussion related to the impact of climate change due to increases in rainfall. An increase in storms will produce more wind events and can increase tornado activity (refer to Section 4.3.3 [Tornadoes]). With an increased likelihood of strong storms, all of the County’s assets will experience additional risk for losses as a result of hail-producing storm events. Changes in Vulnerability Since the 2017 HMP Galveston County’s population increased since the last plan; increasing the number of people impacted during a hail event. Therefore, the entire County remains vulnerable to hail events. 4.3.8 Hurricane and Tropical Storm The following section provides the hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the hurricane and tropical storm hazard in Galveston County. Profile Hazard Description Tropical cyclones are fueled by a different heat mechanism than other cyclonic windstorms, such as Nor’easters and polar lows. The characteristic that separates tropical storms from other cyclonic systems is that at any height in the atmosphere, the center of a tropical storm will be warmer than its surroundings, a phenomenon called warm core storm systems (NOAA n.d.). Tropical cyclones strengthen when water evaporated from the ocean is released as the saturated air rises, resulting in condensation of water vapor contained in the moist air. Tropical cyclones begin as disturbed areas of weather, often referred to as tropical waves. As the storm organizes, it is designated as a tropical depression. A tropical storm system is characterized by a low-pressure center and numerous thunderstorms that produce strong winds of 39 to 73 mph and heavy rain. A hurricane is a tropical storm that attains hurricane status when its wind speed reaches 74 mph or higher. Tropical systems can develop in the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the African coast or in the warm tropical waters of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. These storms can move up the Atlantic coast of the United States, impacting the eastern seaboard, or move into the United States through the states along the Gulf Coast, bringing wind and rain as far north as New England before moving eastward offshore. Location Similar to that of severe weather events (e.g. tornadoes, thunderstorms), hurricanes and tropical storms do not have any specific geographic boundary and can occur anywhere in the County. According to the FEMA Winds Zones of the United States map, Galveston County is located in Wind Zone III, where wind speeds can reach up to 200 mph. Additionally, the County is located in the hurricane-susceptible region. Figure 4-24 illustrates wind zones across the United States, which indicate the impacts of the strength and frequency of wind activity per Section 4.3.8 - Hurricane and Tropical Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-88 2022 Update region. The information on the figure is based on 70 years of tornado data and 160 years of hurricane data collected by FEMA (FEMA 2021). Figure 4-24. Wind Zones in the United States Source: FEMA 2021 Note: The blue circle indicates the approximate location of Galveston County. Extent The extent of a hurricane or tropical storm is commonly categorized in accordance with the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which assigns a designation of tropical storm for storms with sustained wind speeds below 74 mph and a hurricane category rating of 1–5 based on a hurricane’s increasing sustained wind speed. This scale estimates potential property damage. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage. Tropical Storms and Category 1 and 2 storms are still dangerous and require preventative measures (NWS NOAA n.d.). Figure 4-25 presents this scale, which is used to estimate the potential property damage and flooding expected when a hurricane makes landfall. Section 4.3.8 - Hurricane and Tropical Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-89 2022 Update Figure 4-25. The Saffir-Simpson Scale Source: Disaster Readiness Portal 2020 The NWS issues hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings. These watches and warnings are issued or will remain in effect after a tropical cyclone becomes post-tropical, when such a storm poses a significant threat to life and property. The NWS allows the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to issue advisories during the post- tropical stage. The following are the definitions of the watches and warnings: • Hurricane/Typhoon Warning is issued when sustained winds of 74 mph or higher are expected somewhere within the specified area in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical storm-force winds. The warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or combination of dangerously high water and waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force. • Hurricane Watch is issued when sustained winds of 74 mph or higher are possible within the specified area in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours prior to the anticipated onset of tropical storm-force winds. • Tropical Storm Warning is issued when sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are expected somewhere within the specified area within 36 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical storm. • Tropical Storm Watch is issued when sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, sub-tropical, or post-tropical storm (NHC NOAA 2010). Mean Return Period In evaluating the potential for hazard events of a given magnitude, a mean return period (MRP) is often used. The MRP provides an estimate of the magnitude of an event that may occur within any given year based on past recorded events. The MRP is the average period of time, in years, between occurrences of a particular hazard event, equal to the inverse of the annual frequency of exceedance. Section 4.3.8 - Hurricane and Tropical Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-90 2022 Update Peak wind speed projections were generated using Hazus v5.0. Hazus v5.0 estimated the maximum 3-second gust wind speeds for Galveston County: • 100-year MRP – between 111 and 129 mph (Category 3 Hurricane) • 500-year MRP – between 130 and 156 mph (Category 4 Hurricane). Section 4.3.8 - Hurricane and Tropical Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-91 2022 Update Figure 4-26. Wind Speeds for the 100-Year MRP Event Section 4.3.8 - Hurricane and Tropical Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-92 2022 Update Figure 4-27. Wind Speeds for the 500-Year MRP Event Section 4.3.8 - Hurricane and Tropical Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-93 2022 Update Worst-Case Scenario A category 4 hurricane would be the worst-case scenario hurricane for the County. A storm of this magnitude could cause over $22 billion in building damages, displacing 25,021 households, forcing 16,068 people to seek short-term housing, and causing over 42,000 tons of debris. The extreme winds associated with a category 4 (speeds between 130 and 156 mph) would cause catastrophic damages, leading to downed trees, downed power lines, widespread power outages, significant damage to buildings and infrastructure, and limited access to areas of the County. Heavy rains from a hurricane could lead to significant flooding and associated damages. Additionally, storm surge associated with a category 4 hurricane would lead to potentially damaging over 170,000 buildings and over $138 billion in damages. Over 1,800 critical facilities/lifelines would be exposed and vulnerable as well. Previous Occurrences and Losses Many sources have provided historical information regarding previous occurrences and losses associated with hurricanes and tropical storms in Galveston County. Between 1953 and 2020, FEMA included the State of Texas in 29 hurricane-related major disaster (DR) or emergency (EM) declarations. Generally, these disasters cover a wide region of the State; therefore, they may have impacted many counties. Galveston County was included in 14 of these hurricane-related declarations; refer to Table 4-48. Table 4-48 Hurricane-Related FEMA Declarations for Galveston County, 1953 to 2021 FEMA Declaration Number Date(s) of Event Incident Type Incident Title DR-689 August 18-20, 1983 Hurricane Hurricane Alicia DR-1239 August 22-31, 1998 Severe Storm Tropical Storm Charley DR-1245 September 9-October 5, 1998 Severe Storm Tropical Storm Frances DR-1379 June 5-20, 2001 Coastal Storm Tropical Storm Allison DR-1434 September 6-30, 2002 Coastal Storm Tropical Storm Fay DR-1479 July 15-28, 2003 Hurricane Hurricane Claudette EM-3261 and DR-1606 September 20-October 14, 2005 Hurricane Hurricane Rita EM-3277 August 17-September 5, 2007 Hurricane Hurricane Dean EM-3290 August 27-September 7, 2008 Hurricane Hurricane Gustav EM-3294 and DR-1791 September 7-October 2, 2008 Hurricane Hurricane Ike DR-4332 August 23-September 15, 2017 Hurricane Hurricane Harvey EM-3530 July 25-31, 2020 Hurricane Hurricane Hanna EM-3540 August 23-27, 2020 Hurricane Tropical Storms Marco and Laura DR-4572 August 23-27, 2020 Hurricane Hurricane Laura Source: FEMA 2021 Figure 4-28 from the NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracker illustrates the tracks of storms between 1950 and 2020 within 60 nautical miles of Galveston County. NOAA showed 45 hurricanes or tropical storms being tracked within 60 nautical miles of the County. As the figure depicts, the County is frequently impacted by hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions. Section 4.3.8 - Hurricane and Tropical Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-94 2022 Update Figure 4-28 Historical Hurricane Tracks within 65 nautical miles of Galveston County, 1950 to 2020 Source: NOAA 2021 Note: Category refers to tropical cyclone strength. This HMP update includes known hurricane and tropical storm events that have impacted Galveston County between 2016 and 2021. These events are shown in Table 4-49. The events listed in Table 4-49 represent only those that were reported to the NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database, FEMA, and the 2017 Galveston County HMP, and may not represent all hurricane and tropical storm events that have occurred since 2016. For events prior to 2016, refer to the 2017 Galveston County HMP. Section 4.3.8 - Hurricane and Tropical Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-95 2022 Update Table 4-49. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Events in Galveston County, 2016 to 2021 Dates of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number (if applicable) County Designated? Fatalities Injuries Damages Event Details* June 21-22, 2017 Tropical Storm Cindy N/A N/A - - - Water and debris covered a low-lying section of Highway 87 near its intersection with Highway 124 which is an area that is especially vulnerable to coastal flooding. Elsewhere, channels were elevated around Jamaica Beach and other west end communities of Galveston Island, but there was little impact. August/September 2017 Hurricane Harvey DR-4332 Yes 3 - $10 billion Harvey made landfall as a category 4 hurricane near Rockport, Texas during the evening of August 25th. Numerous roads were flooded and impassable across northern and western Galveston County. There were numerous water rescues across western and central Galveston County. Flood waters completely inundated hundreds to thousands of homes and businesses in League City, Dickinson, and Santa Fe. Approximately 7,000 homes and 125 businesses were impacted by flood waters across the county. Clear Creek measured record levels that lead to the widespread flooding throughout Friendswood and League City. Major flooding occurred along the Dickinson Bayou; from Cemetery Road to east of Highway 3 along FM 517. Flood waters inundated sections of Interstate 45, Bay Area Boulevard, FM 528, FM 518 and numerous primary and secondary county roads. July 25-31, 2020 Hurricane Hanna EM-3530 Yes - - - - August 23-27, 2020 Tropical Storms Marco and Laura EM-3540 Yes - - - Hurricane Laura made landfall along the southwest Louisiana coast. The hurricane brought high surf, elevated tides and some winds and wind gusts to tropical storm force along the SE Texas coast. Period of storm surge flooding and high surf from August 26th through 27th leading to flooding of low lying areas and roads. Beach erosion on Gulf side. Tide gauges measured tides 3 to 4 feet above MHHW. Bolivar Peninsula and Galveston Island, including Jamaica Beach, with multiple roads closed. August 23-27, 2020 Hurricane Laura DR-4572 Yes - - - October 8-9, 2020 Hurricane Delta N/A N/A - - - Hurricane Delta produced a long duration of sustained tropical storm force winds across coastal areas. Delta also produced high surf and elevated tides leading to mainly minor coastal flooding along Gulf facing beaches and around Galveston Bay. Source(s): FEMA 2021; NOAA-NCEI 2021; Galveston County HMP 2017 * Many sources were consulted to provide an update of previous occurrences and losses; event details and loss/impact information may vary and has been summarized in the above table - Not reported/not available FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency HMP Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 4.3.8 - Hurricane and Tropical Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-96 2022 Update Climate Change Projections The climate of Texas is changing. Most of the State has warmed between one half and one degree Fahrenheit in the past century. In the eastern two-thirds of the State, average annual rainfall is increasing; however, the soil is becoming drier. Rainstorms are more intense, and floods are becoming more severe. In the coming decades, storms are likely to become more severe in Texas (EPA 2016). Major clusters of summertime storms in North America will grow larger, more intense, and more frequent later this century in a changing climate, leading to increased rainfall and posing a greater threat of flooding across wide areas (UCAR 2017). Probability of Future Occurrences Using the NOAA-NCEI database, NWS, FEMA, and the 2017 Galveston County HMP, Table 4-50 summarizes data regarding the probability of occurrences of hurricane and tropical storm events in Galveston County based on the historic record. It should be noted that many of these events impact a region. The information used to calculate the probability of occurrences is based on the NWS’s Historic Hurricane Tracker and includes events that were tracked within 60 nautical miles of the County. Table 4-50. Probability of Future Occurrence of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Events Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1954 and 2021* % chance of occurrence in any given year Tropical Storms* 36 52.9% Hurricanes (Categories 1 and 2)* 12 17.6% Major Hurricanes (Categories 3, 4, and 5)* 5 7.3% TOTAL* 45 66.1% Source: NOAA 2021 Note: * Individual storm category may have changed during the event, therefore the number of occurrences for each storm category will be greater than the total number of individual storms. Disaster occurrences include federally declared disasters since the 1950 Federal Disaster Relief Act, and selected hurricane events since 1968. Due to limitations in data, not all hurricane events occurring between 1954 and 1996 are accounted for in the tally of occurrences. As a result, the number of hazard occurrences is underestimated. Galveston County is expected to continue experiencing the direct and indirect impacts of hurricanes and tropical storms each year. Based on historical records and input from the Steering Committee, the probability of occurrence for hurricanes and tropical storm events in the County is considered occasional (between 10 and 100% annual chance of occurring). Refer to Section 4.4 for additional information on the hazard ranking methodology and probability criteria. Vulnerability Assessment A probabilistic assessment was conducted for the 100- and 500-year MRPs through a Level 2 analysis in Hazus to analyze the wind hazard associated with hurricanes and tropical storms and provide a range of loss estimates due to wind impacts. Storm surge was also assessed using 2014 SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) data from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. Refer to Section 4.1 (Methodology and Tools) for additional details on the methodology used to assess hurricane and tropical storm risk. Impact on Life, Health and Safety The impact of hurricanes and tropical storms on life, health, and safety is dependent upon several factors including the severity of the event and whether or not adequate warning time was provided to residents. All Galveston County residents are exposed to the hurricane storm and tropical storm hazard; however 18.9-percent, 36.8-percent, 60.1-percent, and 75.8-percent of the population is exposed to the SLOSH Category 1, Category 2, Category 3, and Category 4 inundation areas, respectively (2019 American Community Survey 5-year Section 4.3.8 - Hurricane and Tropical Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-97 2022 Update Estimate). Table 4-51 for a summary of the number of persons exposed to the SLOSH Categories 1 through 4 by jurisdiction. Overall, the Cities of Clear Lake Shores and Dickinson have the great number of persons exposed to the SLOSH Category 4 inundation areas. Research has shown that some populations, while they may not have more hazard exposure, may experience exacerbated impacts and prolonged recovery if/when impacted. This is due to many factors including their physical and financial ability to react or respond during a hazard. Economically disadvantaged populations are vulnerable because they are likely to evaluate their risk and make decisions based on the major economic impact to their family and may not have funds to evacuate. The population over the age of 65 is also vulnerable and, physically, they may have more difficulty evacuating. Additionally, the elderly are considered vulnerable because they require extra time or outside assistance during evacuations and are more likely to seek or need medical attention which may not be available due to isolation during a storm event. According to the 5-year population estimates from the American Community Survey, Galveston County has a total of 37,264 persons living in poverty and 46,103 over the age of 65 years old. Please refer to Section 3 (County Profile) for the statistics of these populations. Residents may be displaced or require temporary to long-term sheltering. In addition, downed trees, damaged buildings, and debris carried by high winds can lead to injury or loss of life. Socially vulnerable populations are most susceptible, based on a number of factors including their physical and financial ability to react or respond during a hazard and the location and construction quality of their housing. Hazus estimates that 5,769 and 25,021 households will be displaced during the 100-year and 500-year MRP hurricane wind events, respectively. Hazus also estimates that 3,725 and 16,068 persons will be seeking short-term shelter during the 100-year and 500-year MRP hurricane wind events, respectively. Refer to Table 4-52 for a summary of the displaced households by jurisdiction. Please note that estimates are only based on wind speed and do not account for sheltering needs associated with flooding and storm surge that may accompany hurricane and tropical storm events. Table 4-51. Estimated Population Exposed to the Hurricane Storm Surge SLOSH Category 1 through Category 4 Hurricane Inundation Hazard Areas Jurisdiction Total Population (American Community Survey 2015-2019) Number of Persons Located in the SLOSH Categories 1-4 Storm Surge Hazard Area Storm Surge Category 1 Storm Surge Category 2 Storm Surge Category 3 Storm Surge Category 4 Number of Persons Percent of Total Number of Persons Percent of Total Number of Persons Percent of Total Number of Persons Percent of Total Bayou Vista (C) 1,763 1,702 96.6% 1,712 97.1% 1,710 97.0% 1,710 97.0% Clear Lake Shores (C) 1,258 265 21.1% 1,250 99.3% 1,250 99.3% 1,252 99.5% Dickinson (C) 20,847 595 2.9% 5,676 27.2% 19,349 92.8% 20,788 99.7% Friendswood (C) 41,213 0 0.0% 108 0.3% 1,334 3.2% 6,721 16.3% Hitchcock (C) 7,301 252 3.4% 5,259 72.0% 7,145 97.9% 7,254 99.4% Jamaica Beach (C) 1,078 908 84.2% 1,015 94.2% 1,016 94.3% 1,007 93.4% Kemah (C) 1,807 79 4.4% 569 31.5% 1,756 97.2% 1,771 98.0% La Marque (C) 18,030 10,211 56.6% 10,816 60.0% 14,845 82.3% 17,548 97.3% League City (C) 114,392 757 0.7% 11,013 9.6% 53,474 46.7% 86,750 75.8% Santa Fe (C) 12,735 0 0.0% 4 0.0% 961 7.5% 3,075 24.1% Tiki Island (V) 1,106 808 73.1% 899 81.3% 899 81.3% 899 81.3% Galveston County (Total) 350,682 66,290 18.9% 129,076 36.8% 210,755 60.1% 265,843 75.8% Source: NOAA 2014 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Section 4.3.8 - Hurricane and Tropical Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-98 2022 Update Table 4-52. Estimated Hurricane Impact on Persons and Households Jurisdiction 100-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane 500-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane Displaced Households Persons Seeking Short-Term Sheltering Displaced Households Persons Seeking Short-Term Sheltering Bayou Vista (C) 36 15 125 52 Clear Lake Shores (C) 52 21 231 94 Dickinson (C) 284 207 1,458 1,054 Friendswood (C) 270 145 1,410 756 Hitchcock (C) 88 62 409 286 Jamaica Beach (C) 9 4 30 13 Kemah (C) 72 44 236 139 La Marque (C) 239 164 1,137 790 League City (C) 1,152 638 6,500 3,697 Santa Fe (C) 218 130 1,042 618 Tiki Island (V) 23 10 80 33 Galveston County (Total) 5,769 3,725 25,021 16,068 Source: American Community Survey 2019 (5-year estimates 2015-2019), Hazus v4.2 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Impact on General Building Stock To estimate potential building exposure, the SLOSH inundation zones were overlaid upon the building stock created for Galveston County. The estimated total number of buildings and replacement cost value located in Categories 1 through 4 SLOSH inundation zones are summarized in Table 4-53 through Table 4-54 by municipality. Overall, 50,086, 98,585, 144,078, and 170,325 buildings are exposed to the SLOSH Category 1, Category 2, Category 3, and Category 4 inundation hazard areas, respectively. U p to 81.1-percent of the total building stock in the County is exposed to the Category 4 inundation area, which is equal to approximately $138.6 billion. Section 4.3.8 - Hurricane and Tropical Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-99 2022 Update Table 4-53. Number of Buildings in the SLOSH Category 1 through 2 Hurricane Inundation Hazard Areas Jurisdiction Total Number of Buildings Total Replacement Cost Value (RCV) Storm Surge Category 1 Storm Surge Category 2 Number of Buildings Percent of Total Total Replacement Cost Value Percent of Total Number of Buildings Percent of Total Total Replacement Cost Value Percent of Total Bayou Vista (C) 1365 $445,354,087.33 1,317 96.5% $424,749,186 95.4% 1,324 97.0% $425,921,023 95.6% Clear Lake Shores (C) 1155 $904,562,368.66 274 23.7% $223,767,630 24.7% 1,144 99.0% $695,917,340 76.9% Dickinson (C) 10351 $6,601,710,645.63 288 2.8% $171,527,463 2.6% 2,686 25.9% $1,555,280,586 23.6% Friendswood (C) 14891 $10,815,456,384.12 0 0.0% $0 0.0% 38 0.3% $17,305,383 0.2% Hitchcock (C) 5452 $4,592,036,651.86 181 3.3% $145,732,443 3.2% 3,713 68.1% $2,617,513,474 57.0% Jamaica Beach (C) 1291 $458,205,838.82 1,076 83.3% $365,369,401 79.7% 1,217 94.3% $433,145,729 94.5% Kemah (C) 1634 $2,631,702,105.60 126 7.7% $910,699,063 34.6% 555 34.0% $1,617,313,325 61.5% La Marque (C) 10749 $7,927,292,522.28 6,169 57.4% $4,615,552,789 58.2% 6,505 60.5% $4,747,244,710 59.9% League City (C) 46742 $31,237,974,594.10 313 0.7% $271,823,631 0.9% 4,450 9.5% $2,733,061,369 8.7% Santa Fe (C) 7942 $4,831,628,162.13 0 0.0% $0 0.0% 2 0.0% $683,161 0.0% Tiki Island (V) 868 $365,209,145.44 624 71.9% $242,284,194 66.3% 708 81.6% $305,474,558 83.6% Galveston County (Total) 209947 $166,321,604,688.46 50,086 23.9% $45,671,691,795 27.5% 98,585 47.0% $87,001,755,597 52.3% Sources: NOAA 2014; Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing 2018; RS Means 2021 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Table 4-54. Number of Buildings in the SLOSH Category 3 through 4 Hurricane Inundation Hazard Areas Jurisdiction Total Number of Buildings Total Replacement Cost Value (RCV) Storm Surge Category 3 Storm Surge Category 4 Number of Buildings Percent of Total Total Replacement Cost Value Percent of Total Number of Buildings Percent of Total Total Replacement Cost Value Percent of Total Bayou Vista (C) 1365 $445,354,087.33 1,323 96.9% $426,025,064 95.7% 1,323 96.9% $426,025,064 95.7% Clear Lake Shores (C) 1155 $904,562,368.66 1,147 99.3% $899,559,394 99.4% 1,149 99.5% $900,188,943 99.5% Dickinson (C) 10351 $6,601,710,645.63 9,668 93.4% $6,241,423,825 94.5% 10,324 99.7% $6,594,840,170 99.9% Friendswood (C) 14891 $10,815,456,384.12 474 3.2% $282,516,903 2.6% 2,492 16.7% $2,379,152,704 22.0% Hitchcock (C) 5452 $4,592,036,651.86 5,269 96.6% $4,099,893,161 89.3% 5,407 99.2% $4,505,169,550 98.1% Jamaica Beach (C) 1291 $458,205,838.82 1,218 94.3% $433,511,885 94.6% 1,207 93.5% $430,756,581 94.0% Kemah (C) 1634 $2,631,702,105.60 1,583 96.9% $2,579,015,109 98.0% 1,601 98.0% $2,590,925,240 98.5% Section 4.3.8 - Hurricane and Tropical Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-100 2022 Update Jurisdiction Total Number of Buildings Total Replacement Cost Value (RCV) Storm Surge Category 3 Storm Surge Category 4 Number of Buildings Percent of Total Total Replacement Cost Value Percent of Total Number of Buildings Percent of Total Total Replacement Cost Value Percent of Total La Marque (C) 10749 $7,927,292,522.28 8,883 82.6% $6,511,093,962 82.1% 10,421 96.9% $7,545,708,277 95.2% League City (C) 46742 $31,237,974,594.10 21,998 47.1% $14,955,152,012 47.9% 35,640 76.2% $24,290,366,490 77.8% Santa Fe (C) 7942 $4,831,628,162.13 562 7.1% $263,374,449 5.5% 1,850 23.3% $813,519,970 16.8% Tiki Island (V) 868 $365,209,145.44 708 81.6% $305,322,200 83.6% 708 81.6% $305,875,137 83.8% Galveston County (Total) 209947 $166,321,604,688.46 144,078 68.6% $119,703,104,280 72.0% 170,325 81.1% $138,655,890,684 83.4% Sources: NOAA 2014; Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing 2018; RS Means 2021 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Section 4.3.8 - Hurricane and Tropical Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-101 2022 Update Impact on Critical Facilities Critical facilities are at risk of being impacted by high winds associated with structural damage, or falling tree limbs/flying debris, which can result in the loss of power. Power loss can greatly impact households, business operations, public utilities, and emergency personnel. For example, vulnerable populations in Galveston County are at risk if power loss results in interruption of heating and cooling services, stagnated hospital operations, and potable water supplies. Emergency personnel such as police, fire, and EMS will not be able to effectively respond in a power loss event to maintain the safety of its citizens. Hazus estimates that critical facilities in Galveston County has a 47.7-percent probability of sustaining minor to moderate damages from the 100-year MRP hurricane wind event. Hazus also estimates that there are critical facilities that have a 65.8-percent probability of sustaining severe damage from the 500-year MRP hurricane wind event. Refer to Section 4.3.13 (Thunderstorm Wind) for details on the imp acts of winds on critical facilities. The critical facilities and lifelines located in the Category 1 through 4 inundation zones are summarized in Table 4-55. Over 78-percent of the critical facilities in the County are exposed to the Category 4 SLOSH inundation area. Table 4-55. Damage Level to Critical Facilities Exposed to Category 1 through 4 SLOSH Hazard Areas FEMA Lifeline Category Number of Lifelines Number of Lifelines Located in the Storm Surge SLOSH Category 1 Hazard Area Number of Lifelines Located in the Storm Surge SLOSH Category 2 Hazard Area Number of Lifelines Located in the Storm Surge SLOSH Category 3 Hazard Area Number of Lifelines Located in the Storm Surge SLOSH Category 4 Hazard Area Communications 111 20 35 68 87 Energy 598 219 336 422 491 Food, Water, Shelter 162 66 131 145 150 Hazardous Materials 68 33 62 66 66 Health and Medical 91 15 51 68 81 Safety and Security 405 89 200 321 358 Transportation 882 211 373 511 590 Galveston County (Total) 2,317 653 1,188 1,601 1,823 Source: Hazus v4.2 At this time, Hazus does not estimate losses to transportation lifelines and utilities as part of the hurricane model. Transportation lifelines are not considered particularly vulnerable to the wind hazard; they are more vulnerable to cascading effects such as flooding, falling debris etc. Impacts to transportation lifelines affect both short-term (e.g., evacuation activities) and long-term (e.g., day-to-day commuting) transportation needs. Furthermore, evacuation routes are vulnerable to coastal storm surge events and hurricane wind events. Impact on Economy Damage to structures from flooding and wind can be the most immediate result of coastal storm events; however, this damage can have long-lasting impacts on the economy. When a business is closed during storm recovery, there is lost economic activity in the form of day-to-day business and wages to employees. Overall, economic impacts include the loss of business function (e.g., tourism, recreation), damage to inventory, relocation costs, wage loss and rental loss due to the repair/replacement of buildings. As evidenced by Hurricane Harvey, the State of Texas, including Galveston County, lost millions of dollars in wages and economic activity. Hazus estimates the total economic loss associated with each storm scenario (direct building losses and business interruption losses). Direct building losses are the estimated costs to repair or replace the damage caused to the Section 4.3.8 - Hurricane and Tropical Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-102 2022 Update building. This is reported in the “Impact on General Building Stock” section discussed earlier. Business interruption losses are the losses associated with the inability to operate a business because of the wind damage sustained during the storm or the temporary living expenses for those displaced from their home because of the event. Debris management can be costly and may also impact the local economy. Hazus estimates the amount of building and tree debris that may be produced as result of the 100- and 500-year MRP wind events. Because the estimated debris production does not include flooding, this is likely a conservative estimate and may be higher if multiple impacts occur. According to the Hazus Hurricane User Manual, estimates of weight and volume of eligible tree debris consist of downed trees that would likely be collected and disposed at public expense. Refer to the User Manual for additional details regarding these estimates. Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that effect vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensure establishment of appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development. • Projected changes in population. • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change. Projected Development Any areas of growth could be potentially impacted by the hurricane and tropical storm hazard because the entire County is exposed and vulnerable; however, due to increased standards and codes, new development can be less vulnerable to the hazard compared with the aging building stock in the County. Projected Changes in Population The County has experienced an increase in population between the 2010 Census (291,309) and the estimated 2015-2019 American Community Survey estimated population of 350,682. The population of the County is expected to increase over the next few years. The increase in population will expose more people to the hurricane and tropical storm hazard. Climate Change The entire State of Texas is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme storms and rainfall. Major clusters of summertime thunderstorms in North America will grow larger, more intense, and more frequent later this century in a changing climate, unleashing far more rain and posing a greater threat of flooding across wide areas (UCAR 2017). An increase in storms will produce more wind events and may increase hurricane and tropical storm activity (Climate Central 2016). Overall, Galveston County will continue to remain vulnerable to the hurricane and tropical storm hazard. Changes in Vulnerability Since the 2017 HMP Galveston County continues to be vulnerable to hurricanes and tropical storms. Hurricane models on population exposed and debris created were not run for the 2017 HMP; therefore, estimated losses were not populated. Furthermore, the building stock has increased significantly, from $17 billion exposed in 2016 to over $96 billion in this update. Overall, the vulnerability assessment presented in this update uses Hazus v4.2 and a more accurate and updated building inventory. This provides more accurate estimated exposure and potential losses for Galveston County. Section 4.3.9 - Land Subsidence Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-103 2022 Update 4.3.9 Land Subsidence The following section provides the hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the land subsidence hazard in Galveston County. Hazard Profile Description Land subsidence is the gradual lowering of land-surface elevation. In the Houston-Galveston region, land subsidence is caused by compaction of fine-grained aquifer sediments (silts and clays) below the land surface due to groundwater withdrawals. Removing water from fine-grained aquifer sediments compresses the aquifer leaving less pore space available to store water resulting in the lowering (sinking or settling) of the land-surface. Most compaction that occurs as a result of groundwater withdrawals is irreversible; even if groundwater levels rise, compacted sediments and the associated land-surface lowering would remain (USGS n.d.). Consequences of land subsidence in the Houston-Galveston Region: • Reduces the ability to store water in an aquifer. • Partially or completely submerges land. • Collapses water well casings. • Disrupts collector drains and irrigation ditches. • Alters the flow of creeks and bayous which may increase the frequency and severity of flooding. • Damages roadways, bridges, building foundations, and other infrastructure. Location USGS measures over groundwater levels in over 700 wells in an 11-county area annually in the Houston- Galveston area in order to develop a regional depiction of groundwater levels. The cumulative compaction in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers are measured at 13 extensometer stations in the 11-county area (USGS n.d.). An extensometer is a device that measures the deformation of the ground in these areas. Water-level altitude contours, wells, and compaction data have been combined in an interactive map that allows users to view annual water-level altitudes from 1977 through the present, water-level changes over time, and historical time series of compaction data (See Figure 4-30). As depicted by the green circles on the map in Figure 4-30, the areas with the greatest rate of land subsidence are near Santa Fe and San Leon. Section 4.3.9 - Land Subsidence Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-104 2022 Update Figure 4-29 The Subsidence Process Source: (USGS n.d.) Figure 4-30 Annual Land Subsidence Rates Source: (USGS 2021) Section 4.3.9 - Land Subsidence Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-105 2022 Update Extent Land subsidence is measured by rates of elevation loss. Figure 4-30 shows the areas near Santa Fe and San Leon are shown to experience annual subsidence of 1 to 1.5 cm, while other areas in the County experience subsidence at a rate of 0.5 cm to 1 cm per year. Figure 4-31 shows the estimated subsidence in total feet in 110 years from 1906 to 2016. Figure 4-31 Estimated Subsidence Between 1906 and 2016 Source: (Harris-Galveston Subsidence District 2018) Groundwater levels also decline as aquifer sediments are compacted and groundwater storage capability is reduced. Figure 4-32 shows the receded water level contours of the Chicot Aquifer between 1977 and 2019. Figure 4-32 Groundwater Contour Change Between 1977 and 2019 Source: (USGS 2021) Section 4.3.9 - Land Subsidence Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-106 2022 Update Worst-Case Scenario A worse-case scenario for land subsidence is that it would continue at its current rates of between >-0.5 and -1.5 centimeters per year according to USGS surface GPS monitors and over time, impact the integrity of the built environment and worsen the effects of coastal flooding. Impacts from land subsidence include road closures, damage to infrastructure and buildings, and inaccessible areas that can disrupt emergency response. Previous Occurrences and Losses Subsidence is a continuous hazard, and its effects are intimately intertwined with those of other natural forces and episodic hazardous events. Rates of subsidence have decreased across Galveston County, but its effects continue to compound. Climate Change Projections While there is no established connection that climate change increases land subsidence, secondary impacts of climate change such as drought and flood may have a greater impact on areas experiencing land subsidence. As drought levels increase, the need to pump water from aquifers also increases which exacerbates subsidence. As sea levels rise, coastal areas that have lost elevation due to subsidence will experience more frequent coastal flooding (Shirzaei and Bürgmann 2018). Probability of Future Events It is anticipated that land subsidence will continue to occur in Galveston County. As the frequency of drought conditions continues to increase, the probability for future subsidence events will likely increase as well. Due to the gradual nature of this hazard and the lack of data on individual land subsidence events, the probability of future events is based on previous events and input from the Steering Committee. The probability of occurrence for land subsidence in the planning area is considered rare (between 1 and 10% annual chance of occurring). Refer to Section 4.4 for additional information on the hazard ranking methodology and probability criteria. Vulnerability Assessment To understand risk, a community must evaluate assets exposed to and vulnerable to the identified hazard. The entire County is vulnerable to land subsidence hazards; however, the eastern portion of the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District along the Houston Bay Ship Channel is especially vulnerable. This location is near Bayou Vista, Clear Lake Shores, Hitchcock, Kemah, and unincorporated areas of Galveston County. Impact on Life, Health and Safety Land subsidence is not generally considered an imminent threat to public safety then the changes are gradual over many years. However, land subsidence has many negative secondary consequences. The decrease in land surface elevation contributes to an increase in the frequency and extent of flooding, damage to infrastructure, activation of acceleration of the movement of geologic faults resulting in property damage, erosion, and loss of submerged aquatic vegetation, all of which have negative effects on human life, health, and safety (Galveston County 2016 HMP). The entire population of the County is vulnerable to this hazard, however, the populations of Bayou Vista, Clear Lake Shores, Hitchcock, Kemah, are especially vulnerable. Impact on General Building Stock and Critical Facilities Estimates of the impact on general building stock and critical facilities are vague. An estimate of the average annual cost to property owners from 1969 to 1974 for the HGSD was $31,000,000 (measured in 1975 dollars). Due to the decrease in rates of subsidence, this cost may be much lower today. Costs to relocate or fortify industrial facilities would likely exceed those estimates (Galveston County 2016 HMP). Section 4.3.10 - Lightning Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-107 2022 Update Impact on the Economy Estimates of the financial impact of subsistence are vague. “Many millions of dollars” are spent reclaiming land submerged by tidal water, elevating structures such as buildings, wharves, and roadways, constructing levees to protect against tidal inundation and to repair damage due to fault movement (Galveston County 2016 HMP). For estimates of the economic impacts on the building stock, see the above section. Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that affect vulnerability can assist in planning for future development and ensure establishment of appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development • Projected changes in population • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change Projected Development As discussed, and illustrated in Section 3 (County Profile), areas targeted for future growth and development have been identified across the County. Any areas of growth could be affected by erosion if the growth areas are within identified hazard areas. Areas targeted for potential future growth and development could be potentially impacted by land subsidence if they are located within areas prone to land subsidence Projected Changes in Population The County has experienced an increase in population between the 2010 Census (291,309) and the estimated 2019 American Community Survey estimated population of 350,682. Furthermore, the populations of the most vulnerable jurisdictions have increased. The population of the county is expected to increase over the next few years. The increase in population will expose more people to the land subsidence hazard. Climate Change While there is no established connection that climate change increases land subsidence, secondary impacts of climate change such as drought and flood may have a greater impact on areas experiencing land subsidence. As drought levels increase, the need to pump water from aquifers also increases which exacerbates subsidence. As sea levels rise, coastal areas that have lost elevation due to subsidence will experience more frequent coastal flooding (Shirzaei and Bürgmann 2018). Change of Vulnerability Galveston County’s population increased since the last plan, increasing the number of people at risk to a land subsidence event. Therefore, the entire County remains vulnerable to land subsidence events. 4.3.10 Lightning The following section provides the hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the lightning hazard in Galveston County. Profile Lightning is a giant spark of electricity in the atmosphere between clouds, the air, or the ground, produced by a thunderstorm. Energy from lightning channel heats the air to around 18,000°F. This causes the air to rapidly expand, creating a sound wave known as thunder. Thunder can be heard up to 25 miles away from the lightning discharge (NOAA n.d.). Figure 4-33 illustrates how lightning develops. Lightning is a major cause of storm- Section 4.3.10 - Lightning Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-108 2022 Update related deaths in the United States, with an average of 43 reported fatalities and 243 injuries each year (NWS n.d.). Between 1990 and 2003, 52 lightning-related deaths was reported in the State of Texas, ranking second in the United States for deaths associated with lightning strikes (National Lighting Safety Institute 2021). Figure 4-33. How Lightning Develops Source: Weather Underground 2021 Location Lightning occurs with thunderstorms, making all of Galveston County susceptible to the lightning hazard. The National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) collects cloud-to-ground lightning data for the continental United States. Figure 4-34 illustrates the cloud-to-lightning incidence across the United States. The figure shows that Galveston County experienced 12 to 20 flashes per square mile each year. Section 4.3.10 - Lightning Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-109 2022 Update Figure 4-34. Cloud-to-Lightning Incidence, 2008 to 2017 Source: Vaisala 2021 Extent Lightning is most often associated with moderate to severe thunderstorms. The severity of lightning refers to the frequency of lightning strikes during a storm. The Lightning Activity Level (LAL) is a scale which describes lightning activity. The scale is part of the National Fire Danger Rating System. The scale is a range of numbers, from one to six, which reflects frequency and character of cloud-to-ground lightning (National Wildfire Coordinating Group n.d.) (NWS n.d.). Table 4-56. Lightning Activity Level Lightning Activity Level (LAL) Conditions 1 No thunderstorms 2 Isolated thunderstorms. Light rain will occasionally reach the ground. Lightning is very infrequent, 1 to 5 cloud to ground strikes in a five-minute period. 3 Widely scattered thunderstorms. Light to moderate rain will reach the ground. Lightning is infrequent, 6 to 10 cloud to ground strikes in a 5-minute period. 4 Scattered thunderstorms. Moderate rain is commonly produced Lightning is frequent, 11 to 15 cloud to ground strikes in a 5-minute period. 5 Numerous thunderstorms. Rainfall is moderate to heavy. Lightning is frequent and intense, greater than 15 cloud to ground strikes in a 5-minute period. 6 Dry lightning (same as LAL 3 but without rain). This type of lightning has the potential for extreme fire activity and is normally highlighted in fire weather forecasts with a Red Flag Warning. Sources: National Wildfire Coordinating Group 2021; NWS 2021 Worst-Case Scenario A worst-case scenario for lightning strikes would be an event with multiple strikes that result in injury and death like the September 2003 event, or major structural damage like the August 2018 event. This type of event would be a 4 or 5 on the LAL scale. An event with frequent lightning strikes could lead to power outages, structural Section 4.3.10 - Lightning Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-110 2022 Update fires, injuries, and deaths. Countywide power outages would disrupt operations, inundate shelters, increase emergency response calls, and impact critical services that relies on power to assist the community. Previous Occurrences and Losses Many sources have provided historical information regarding previous occurrences and losses associated with lightning strikes in Galveston County. According to the NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database, Galveston County has been impacted by 19 lightning events between 1996 and 2020 that resulted in 5 deaths and caused almost $3.3 million in property damage (refer to Table 4-57). Table 4-57. Lightning Events 1996-2020 Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1996 and 2020 Total Fatalities Total Injuries Total Property Damage ($) Total Crop Damage ($) Lightning 19 5 3 $3,259,000 - Sources: NOAA-NCEI 2021; Galveston County HMP 2017 Note: Due to limitations in data, not all thunderstorm wind events occurring between 1950 and 1996 are accounted for in the tally of occurrences. As a result, the number of hazard occurrences is underestimated As stated earlier, lightning occurs with thunderstorms. Between 1953 and 2021, the State of Texas was included in five thunderstorm or hail-related FEMA major disaster (DR) or emergency (EM) declarations. Of those declarations, Galveston County was included in one declaration. Table 4-58 lists FEMA DR and EM declarations for Galveston County. Table 4-58. Thunderstorm-Related FEMA Declarations for Galveston County, 1953 to 2021 FEMA Declaration Number Date(s) of Event Incident Type Incident Title DR-1041 October 14-November 8, 1994 Flood Severe Thunderstorms and Flooding Source: FEMA 2021 This HMP update includes known lightning strikes that have impacted Galveston County between 2016 and 2021. These events listed in Table 4-59 represent only those that were reported in the NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database, FEMA, and the Galveston County 2017 HMP. However, local knowledge indicates more instances of lightning strikes occurring in the County. Therefore, Table 4-59 may not represent all lightning strikes that have occurred prior to or since 2016. Section 4.3.10 - Lightning Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-111 2022 Update Table 4-59. Lightning Events in Galveston County, 2016 to 2021 Date of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number (if applicable) County Designated? Deaths Injuries Damages Event Details* June 28, 2016 Lighting N/A N/A - - $8,000 A lightning strike caused electrical damage to the League City’s City Hall's parking lot lights. August 29, 2018 Lighting N/A N/A - - $745,000 Lightning struck a home and caused a fire that destroyed the property. August 29, 2018 Lighting N/A N/A - - $1,000 Lightning struck and damaged a house. August 29, 2021 Lightning N/A N/A - - $250,000 Lightning strike initiated a fire which severely damaged a two story home. Family and pets were able to evacuate in time with no injuries. Source(s): FEMA 2021; NOAA-NCEI 2021; Galveston County HMP 2017 * Many sources were consulted to provide an update of previous occurrences and losses; event details and loss/impact information may vary and has been summarized in the above table - Not available/not recorded FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency NCEI National Centers for Environmental Information Section 4.3.10 - Lightning Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-112 2022 Update Climate Change Projections The climate of Texas is changing. Most of the State has warmed between one half and one degree Fahrenheit in the past century. In the eastern two-thirds of the State, average annual rainfall is increasing; however, the soil is becoming drier. Rainstorms are more intense, and floods are becoming more severe. In the coming decades, storms are likely to become more severe in Texas (EPA 2016). Climate change may lead to an increase in the number of lightning-producing storms. Major clusters of summertime thunderstorms in North America will grow larger, more intense, and more frequent later this century in a changing climate, unleashing far more rain and posing a greater threat of flooding across wide areas (UCAR 2017). At century's end, the number of summertime storms that produce extreme downpours could increase by more than 400% across parts of the United States, including sections of the Gulf Coast, Atlantic Coast, and the Southwest. In addition, the intensity of individual extreme rainfall events could increase by a s much as 70% in some areas (National Science Foundation 2016). Probability of Future Occurrences Table 4-60 summarizes data regarding the probability of occurrences of lightning events in Galveston County based on the historic record. The information used to calculate the probability of occurrences is based on the 2017 Galveston HMP, the NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database, and FEMA. Table 4-60. Probability of Future Occurrence of Lightning Events Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1954 and 2021 % chance of occurrence in any given year Lightning 20 29.4% Source: NOAA-NCEI 2021; FEMA 2021; Galveston County HMP 2017 Note: Disaster occurrences include federally declared disasters since the 1950 Federal Disaster Relief Act, and selected lightning events since 1968. Due to limitations in data, not all lightning events occurring between 1954 and 1996 are accounted for in the tally of occurrences. As a result, the number of hazard occurrences is underestimated Galveston County will continue experiencing the direct and indirect impacts of lightning events each year. Based on information from the 2017 Galveston County HMP, FEMA and the NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database, there have been fifteen reported lightning strikes in the County in 20 years. However, as stated earlier, local knowledge indicates many more instances of lightning strikes occurring in the County. Therefore, the calculated probability based on recorded incidents might not represent the actual probability of occurrence. Based on historical records and input from the Steering Committee, the probability of occurrence for thunderstorm events in Galveston County is considered occasional (between 10 and 100% annual chance of occurring). Refer to Section 4.4 for additional information on the hazard ranking methodology and probability criteria. Vulnerability Assessment To understand risk, a community must evaluate assets exposed to and vulnerable to the identified hazard. The entirety of Galveston County is exposed and vulnerable to the lightning hazard; therefore, all assets within the County (population, structures, critical facilities, and lifelines), as described in Section 3 (County Profile), are potentially vulnerable to a thunderstorm event. The following text evaluates and estimates the potential impact of the lightning hazard in the County. Impact on Life, Health and Safety Across the United States, the 10-year average (2009 to 2018) for lightning-caused fatalities is 27, while the 30- year average (1989 to 2018) is 43 (NWS 2020). Refer to Figure 4-35 for an illustration of these statistics. Section 4.3.10 - Lightning Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-113 2022 Update According to the NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database, there has been five fatalities and three injuries as a result of lightning events from 1996 to 2021. Figure 4-35. Weather Fatalities in the United States, 2018 Source: NOAA 2020 The impact of a lightning on life, health, and safety is dependent upon several factors including the severity of the event and whether adequate warning time was provided to residents. The entire population of Galveston County is assumed to be exposed to this hazard. Lightning can be responsible for deaths, injuries, and property damage. Lightning-based deaths and injuries typically involve heart damage, inflated lungs, or brain damage, as well as loss of consciousness, amnesia, paralysis, and burns, depending on the severity of the strike. Additionally, most people struck by lightning survive, although they may have severe burns and internal damage. People located outdoors (i.e., recreational activities and farming) are considered most vulnerable to lightning strikes because there is little to no warning, and shelter might not be available. Moving to a lower risk location will decrease a person’s vulnerability. Impact on General Building Stock For the purpose of this plan update, the entire general building stock and all infrastructure in Galveston County are considered exposed to the lightning hazard. Lightning can spark wildfires or building fires, especially if structures are not protected by surge protectors on critical electronic, lighting, or information technology systems. While damage to the building stock is possible as a result of lightning, it is difficult to estimate and would not have as wide of an impact as a high wind or tornado event. Impact on Critical Facilities For the purpose of this plan update, all critical facilities in Galveston County are considered exposed to the lightning hazard. Section 4.3.11 - Pandemic Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-114 2022 Update Impact on Economy According to NOAA’s Technical Paper on Lightning Fatalities, Injuries, and Damage Reports in the United States from 1959 - 1994, monetary losses for lightning events range from less than $50 to greater than $5 million (larger losses associated with forest fires with homes destroyed and crop loss) (NOAA 1997). Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that effect vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensure establishment of appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development. • Projected changes in population. • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change. Projected Development Understanding future changes that impact vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensuring that appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures are in place. Areas targeted for potential future growth and development could be potentially impacted by thunderstorms since the entire County is exposed to the lightning hazard. However, due to increased standards and codes, new development can be less vulnerable to the lightning hazard compared with the aging building stock in the County. Projected Changes in Population The County experienced an increase in population between the 2010 Census (291,309) and the estimated 2015- 2019 American Community Survey estimated population of 350,682. The population of the County is expected to increase over the next few years. The increase in population will expose more people to the lightning hazard. Climate Change Climate change may lead to an increase in the number of lightning strikes and lightning-producing storms. Major clusters of summertime thunderstorms in North America will grow larger, more intense, and more frequent later this century in a changing climate, leading to increased rainfall and posing a greater threat of flooding across wide areas (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research [UCAR] 2017). The changing climate may also increase the frequency of lightning flashes could rise by an estimated 50-percent across the continental United States over the next century. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and moisture is one of the key ingredients for triggering a lightning strike (Lee 2014). Changes in Vulnerability Since the 2017 HMP Galveston County’s population increased since the last plan; increasing the number of people impacted during a lightning. Therefore, the entire County remains vulnerable to lightning. 4.3.11 Pandemic This section provides the hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the pandemic hazard for Galveston County. Profile Hazard Description An outbreak or an epidemic occurs when new cases of a certain disease, in a given population, substantially exceed what is expected. An epidemic may be restricted to one locale, or it may be global, at which point it is called a pandemic. Pandemic is defined as a disease occurring over a wide geographic area and affecting a high Section 4.3.11 - Pandemic Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-115 2022 Update proportion of the population. A disease outbreak can cause sudden, pervasive illness in all age groups on a local or global scale. A pandemic is a novel virus to which humans have no natural immunity that spreads from person- to-person. A pandemic will cause both widespread and sustained effects and is likely to stress the resources of both the State and federal government (Madhav, et al. 2017). In addition to health impacts, disease outbreaks reaching pandemic proportions can cause social and economic impacts on a global scale (Shang, Li and Zhang 2021). Coronavirus Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease first identified in 2019. The virus rapidly spread into a global pandemic by spring of 2020. Older people, and those with underlying medical problems like cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and cancer are more likely to develop serious illness (World Health Organization n.d.). With the virus being relatively new, information regarding transmission and symptoms of the virus is still new. The COVID-19 virus spreads primarily through droplets of saliva or discharge from the nose when an infected person coughs or sneezes. Reported illnesses have ranged from mild symptoms to severe illness. Reported symptoms include fever or chills, cough, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing and fatigue. Symptoms may appear 2-14 days after exposure to the virus (CDC 2021). In an effort to slow the spread of the virus, the federal government and states have urged the public to avoid touching of the face, properly wash hands often, and use various social distancing measures. At the time of this plan update, there are three approved and authorized vaccines available in the United States to reduce risk of severe illness (CDC 2021). Influenza The risk of a global influenza pandemic has increased over the last several years. This disease is capable of claiming thousands of lives and adversely affecting critical infrastructure and key resources. An influenza pandemic has the ability to reduce the health, safety, and welfare of the essential services workforce; immobilize core infrastructure; and induce fiscal instability. Pandemic influenza is different from seasonal influenza (or "the flu") because outbreaks of seasonal flu are caused by viruses that are already among people. An influenza pandemic is a global outbreak of a new influenza A virus. Pandemics happen when new (novel) influenza A viruses emerge which are able to infect people easily and spread from person to person in an efficient and sustained way (CDC n.d.). At the national level, the CDC’s Influenza Division has a long history of supporting the World Health Organization (WHO) and its global network of National Influenza Centers (NIC). With limited resources, most international assistance provided in the early years was through hands-on laboratory training of in-country staff, the annual provision of WHO reagent kits (produced and distributed by CDC), and technical consultations for vaccine strain selections. The Influenza Division also conducts epidemiologic research including vaccine studies and serologic assays and provided international outbreak investigation assistance (CDC n.d.). West Nile Virus West Nile Virus (WNV) encephalitis is a mosquito-borne viral disease, which can cause an inflammation of the brain. WNV is commonly found in Africa, West Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. West Nile Virus was first reported in Texas in 2002. In a small number of cases, WNV has been spread by blood transfusion, which has resulted in the screening of blood donations for the virus in the US, or by organ transplantation. WNV can also be spread from mother to baby during pregnancy, delivery, or breast-feeding in a small number of cases. The symptoms of severe infection (West Nile encephalitis or meningitis) can include headache, high fever, neck stiffness, muscle weakness, stupor, disorientation, tremors, seizures, paralysis, and coma. WNV can cause serious illness, and in some cases, death. Usually, symptoms occur from two to 14 days after being bitten by an infected mosquito (Texas Department of State Health Services n.d.). Section 4.3.11 - Pandemic Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-116 2022 Update Location Disease outbreaks can occur without regard for location. However, factors such as density, visitation, and the length of time in which the public spends in a location all contribute to the spread of infectious diseases. For example, COVID-19 is more likely spread by persons in close contact. Indoor areas in which people are in close contact with each other appear to be significant vectors for the disease, which is spread through respiratory droplets. Infectious diseases spread by insects may be subject to other types of location hazards. For example, the prevalence of standing water can provide breeding grounds for diseases such as West Nile Virus. Diseases that can infect humans are variable in nature and methods of transmission. Ultimately, residents need to be vigilant about diseases altogether in order to better understand and respond to disease outbreak hazards. Extent The exact size and extent of an infected population depends on how easily the illness is spread, the mode of transmission, and the amount of contact between infected and uninfected individuals. The transmission rates of pandemic illnesses are often higher in more densely populated areas. The transmission rate of infectious diseases will depend on the mode of transmission of a given illness. Coronavirus The most recent large-scale disease outbreak is COVID-19, which is ongoing at the time of this report’s publication. Texas’s first COVID-19 cases were reported on March 6th, 2020. By mid-April, hundreds of new cases were being confirmed each day. Beginning in May, daily new cases in excess of 1,000 were reported, with the number of daily new cases growing near-exponentially beginning in mid-June. On a county-wide basis, there have been 55,166 confirmed cases as of December 2, 2021 (Galveston County Health District 2021), The graph in Figure 4-36 shows the rate of confirmed cases in Galveston County through December 3, 2021 (Texas Department of State Health Services 2021). Figure 4-36. COVID-19 Confirmed Case Rate in Galveston County, Texas Source: Texas Department of State Health Services, 2021 A significant metric of COVID-19 has been hospital bed utilization. Efforts to “flatten the curve” of new reported cases are meant to avoid overwhelming medical systems by heading off hospital over-capacity issues. Figure 4-37 shows that as of December 3, 2021, COVID-19 cases account for 3.4 percent of general beds in use and hospital bed use is below capacity in Galveston County. Section 4.3.11 - Pandemic Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-117 2022 Update Figure 4-37. Hospital Census Data, Galveston County, Texas Source: SETRAC Previous Occurrences and Losses Between 1953 and 2021, FEMA issued a disaster (DR) or emergency (EM) declaration for the State of Texas for one pandemic-related event. Galveston County was included in this declaration for COVID-19. For the 2022 HMP update, known disease outbreaks that have impacted Galveston County between 2003 and 2021 are identified in Table 4-61 below. Table 4-61. Public Health Events in Galveston County, 2014 to December 3, 2021 Date(s) of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number (if applicable) Galveston County Designated? Description 2003-Present West Nile Virus None N/A Between 2003 and 2021, 22 human cases of West Nile Virus were reported in Galveston County. 2015-Present Zika Virus None N/A Nine Galveston County residents were reported to contract Zika in 2016, a mosquito-borne illness. All cases were associated with travel, and none were reported to have been contracted locally. The vast majority of cases in Texas were determined to have not been contracted locally. March 2020- Present Novel Coronavirus DR-4485 EM-3458 Yes As of December 3, 2021, there were 55,166 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Galveston County. Sources: FEMA 2021; Galveston County Health District 2021; CDC 2021 Climate Change Projections Climate change will likely have significant indirect impacts on disease outbreaks. In Texas, higher temperatures, decreased water availability, and more severe storm events are anticipated due to climate change. According to the World Health Organization, changing climatic conditions are being studied for impacts upon disease transmission. Seasonal infectious diseases that are influenced by meteorological conditions may see significant variability in recurrence and duration. The World Health Organization concludes that variations in infectious disease transmission patterns are likely major consequences of climate change. Section 4.3.11 - Pandemic Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-118 2022 Update Probability of Future Occurrences Though occurrences of disease outbreaks overall are often difficult to p redict at the local level, it is anticipated that Galveston County will continue to be impacted by disease outbreaks for the foreseeable future. Seasonality for cold and flu is well established and anticipated in Texas on an annual basis. Based on the recent disease outbreak cases shown in Table 4-62, the future occurrence of disease outbreak cases in the planning area can be considered frequent (100% chance of occurring; occurs multiple times a year). Refer to Section 4.4 for additional information on the hazard ranking methodology and probability criteria. Table 4-62 Probability of Pandemic Cases Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 2014 and December 3, 2021 % chance of occurrence in any given year Pandemic Cases 55,197 100% Note: Disaster occurrences include federally declared disasters since the 1950 Federal Disaster Relief Act, and selected events since 1968. Due to limitations in data, not all pandemic events occurring between 1954 and 1996 are accounted for in the tally of occurrences. As a result, the number of hazard occurrences is underestimated. Vulnerability Assessment To understand risk, a community must evaluate what assets are exposed or vulnerable to the identified hazard. The following discusses Galveston’s vulnerability, in a qualitative nature, to the disease outbreak hazard. Impact on Life, Health and Safety The entire population of Galveston County is vulnerable to the disease outbreak hazard. Due to a lack of quantifiable loss information, a qualitative assessment was conducted to evaluate the assets exposed to this hazard and the potential impacts associated with this hazard. Healthcare providers and first responders have an increased risk of exposure due to their frequent contact with infected populations. Areas with a higher population density also have an increased risk of exposure or transmission of disease to do the closer proximity of population to potentially infected people. Most recently with COVID-19, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have indicated that persons over 65 years and older, persons living in a nursing home or long-term care facility, and persons with underlying medical conditions such as diabetes, severe obesity, serious heart conditions, etc. are at a higher risk of getting severely ill (CDC 2020). According to the 2019 American Community Survey, 13.1% of Galveston County residents (or approximately 46,103 people) are over the age of 65. As of January 13, 2022, there have been 68,933 positive COVID-19 cases in Galveston County (GCHD 2022). Impact on General Building Stock No structures are anticipated to be directly affected by pandemic events. Impact on Critical Facilities No critical facilities are anticipated to be affected by disease outbreaks. Hospitals and medical facilities will likely see an increase in patients, but it is unlikely that there will be damages or interruption of services. However, large rates of infection may result in an increase in the rate of hospitalization which may overwhelm hospitals and medical facilities and lead to decreased services for those seeking medical attention. The 2020 coronavirus pandemic has led to overwhelmed hospitals in numerous hotspots. Section 4.3.11 - Pandemic Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-119 2022 Update Impact on Economy Disease outbreaks impacts on the economy and estimated dollar losses are difficult to measure and quantify. Costs associated with the activities and programs implemented to conduct surveillance and address disease outbreaks have not been quantified in available documentation. As evidenced in the COVID-19 outbreak, quarantines, shutdowns, and social distancing measures can have outsized economic impacts, particularly on the leisure, tourism, and food/accommodations sectors. Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that impact vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensuring that appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures are in place. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development • Projected changes in population • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change. Projected Development Any areas of growth could be potentially impacted by the disease outbreak hazard because the entire planning area is exposed and vulnerable. Additional development of structures in close proximity to waterbodies or areas with high population density are at an increased risk. Projected Changes in Population The County experienced an increase in population between the 2010 Census (291,309) and the estimated 2015- 2019 American Community Survey estimated population of 350,682. The population of the County is expected to increase in the near future. The increase in population will expose more people to the pandemic hazard as residents move into area and the population exposed increases. Population density changes when househ olds move throughout the County could influence the number of persons exposed to disease outbreaks. Higher density jurisdictions are not only at risk of greater exposure to disease outbreak, density may also reduce available basic services provided by critical facilities such as hospitals and emergency facilities for persons that are not affected by a disease. Climate Change The relationship between infectious diseases occurrence and climate change is difficult to predict with certainty. However, there may be linkages between the two. Changes in the environment may create a more livable habitat for vectors carrying disease as suggested by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC n.d.). Localized changes in climate and human interaction may also be a factor in the spread of disease. For example, in the wake of Hurricane Harvey prolonged and intense precipitation provided breeding grounds for mosquitos that necessitated mosquito control measures. The relationship between climate change and infectious diseases is not universally agreed upon. Climate change may affect the spread of disease, while others are not convinced. However, research indicates that the only force at work in increasing the spread of infectious diseases into the future. Other factors, such as expanded rapid travel and evolution of resistance to medical treatments, are already changing the ways pathogens infect people, plants, and animals. As climate change accelerates it is likely to work synergistically with many of these factors, especially in populations increasingly subject to massive migration and malnutrition (Harmon 2010). Section 4.3.11 - Pandemic Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-120 2022 Update Changes in Vulnerability Since the 2017 HMP Pandemic is a new hazard profile for the 2022 HMP update. The occurrence and prevalence of COVID-19 in the County underscores the need to address disease outbreak as part of the hazard mitigation planning process. The County will continue to be exposed and vulnerable to pandemic events. Section 4.3.12 - Severe Winter Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-121 2022 Update 4.3.12 Severe Winter Storm The following section provides the hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the severe winter storm hazard in Galveston County. Profile Hazard Description Severe winter storms bring the threat of snow, freezing rain, and ice storms to Galveston County. A winter storm is a weather event in which the main types of precipitation are snow, sleet, or freezing rain. They can be a combination of heavy snow, blowing snow, and dangerous wind chills. According to the National Severe Storms Laboratory, the three basic components needed to make a winter storm include the following: • Below freezing temperatures (cold air) in the clouds and near the ground to make snow and ice. • Lift, something to raise the moist air to form clouds and cause precipitation, such as warm air colliding with cold air and being forced to rise over the cold dome or air flowing up a mountainside (oliographic lifting). • Moisture to form clouds and precipitation, such as air blowing across a large lake or the ocean. Some winter storms are large enough to immobilize an entire region while others might only affect a single community. Winter storms typically are accompanied by low temperatures, high winds, freezing rain or sleet, and heavy snowfall. The aftermath of a winter storm can have an impact on a community or region for days, weeks, or even months; potentially causing cold temperatures, flooding, storm surge, closed and blocked roadways, downed utility lines, and power outages. In Galveston County, winter storms include snowstorms, blizzards, and ice storms. Extreme cold temperatures and wind chills are associated with winter storms; however, they are discussed in Section 4.3.6 (Extreme Temperature). Heavy Snow According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), snow is precipitation in the form of ice crystals. It originates in clouds when temperatures are below the freezing point (32 °F) and water vapor in the atmosphere condenses directly into ice without going through the liquid stage. Once an ice crystal has formed, it absorbs and freezes additional water vapor from the surrounding air, growing into snow crystals or a snow pellet, which then falls to the earth. Snow falls in different forms: snowflakes, snow pellets, or sleet. Snowflakes are clusters of ice crystals that form from a cloud. Figure 4-38 depicts snow creation. Figure 4-38. Snow Creation Source: (NOAA NSSL n.d.) Section 4.3.12 - Severe Winter Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-122 2022 Update Snow pellets are opaque ice particles in the atmosphere. They form as ice crystals fall through super-cooled cloud droplets, which are below freezing but remain a liquid. The cloud droplets then freeze to the crystals. Sleet is made up of drops of rain that freeze into ice as they fall through colder air layers. They are usually smaller than 0.30 inches in diameter (NSIDC 2020). Figure 4-39. Sleet Creation Source: (NOAA NSSL n.d.) Blizzards A blizzard is a winter snowstorm with sustained or frequent wind gusts of 35 miles per hour (mph) or more, accompanied by falling or blowing snow reducing visibility to or below 0.25 mile, as the predominant conditions over a 3-hour period. Extremely cold temperatures often are associated with blizzard conditions but are not a formal part of the definition. The hazard, created by the combination of snow, wind, and low visibility, significantly increases when temperatures are below 20 °F. A severe blizzard is categorized as having temperatures near or below 10 °F, winds exceeding 45 mph, and visibility reduced by snow to near zero. Storm systems powerful enough to cause blizzards usually form when the jet stream dips far to the south, allowing cold air from the north to clash with warm, moister air from the south. Blizzard conditions often develop on the northwest side of an intense storm system. The difference between the lower pressure in the storm and the higher pressure to the west creates a tight pressure gradient, resulting in strong winds and extreme conditions caused by the blowing snow (NWS n.d.). Ice Storms An ice storm describes those events when damaging accumulations of ice are expected during freezing rain situations. Significant ice accumulations typically are accumulations of 0.25-inches or greater. Heavy accumulations of ice can bring down trees, power lines, utility poles, and communication towers. Ice can disrupt communications and power for days. Even small accumulations of ice can be extremely dangerous to motorists and pedestrians (NWS 2018). Section 4.3.12 - Severe Winter Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-123 2022 Update Figure 4-40. Freezing Rain Creation Source: (NOAA NSSL n.d.) Location Winter storms occur on a regional scale and can happen anywhere in the State of Texas; therefore, all of Galveston County can experience winter storm events. Extent The magnitude or severity of a severe winter storm depends on several factors, including a region’s climatological susceptibility to snowstorms, snowfall amounts, snowfall rates, wind speeds, temperatures, visibility, storm duration, topography, time of occurrence during the day and week (e.g., weekday versus weekend), and time of season. The extent of a severe winter storm can be classified by meteorological measurements and by evaluating its societal impacts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) is currently producing the Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) for significant snowstorms that impact the eastern two-thirds of the United States. The RSI ranks snowstorm impacts on a scale from 1 to 5 and is based on the spatial extent of the storm, the amount of snowfall, and the interaction of the extent and snowfall totals with population (based on the 2000 Census). The NCDC has analyzed and assigned RSI values to over 500 storms since 1900 (NOAA NCEI n.d.). Table 4-63 presents the five RSI ranking categories. Table 4-63. RSI Ranking Categories for the South Climate Region Category Description RSI Value Snowfall Thresholds 1 Notable 1–3 <2 2 Significant 3–6 >2 3 Major 6–10 >5 4 Crippling 10–18 >10 5 Extreme 18.0+ >15 Source: (NOAA NCEI n.d.) Note: RSI = Regional Snowfall Index The NWS operates a widespread network of observing systems, such as geostationary satellites, Doppler radars, and automated surface observing systems that feed into the current state-of-the-art numerical computer models Section 4.3.12 - Severe Winter Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-124 2022 Update to provide a look into what will happen next, ranging from hours to days. The models are then analyzed by NWS meteorologists who then write and disseminate forecasts (NOAA 2017). According to the National Weather Service (part of NOAA), the magnitude of a severe winter storm can be qualified into five main categories by event type: • Heavy Snowstorm – snowfall accumulating to 4 inches or more in 12 hours or less or snowfall accumulating to six inches or more in 24 hours or less. • Sleet Storm – Significant accumulations of solid pellets that form from the freezing of raindrops or partially melted snowflakes causing slippery surfaces, posing a hazard to pedestrians and motorists. • Ice Storm – Significant accumulation of rain or drizzle freezing on objects (trees, power lines, roadways) as it strikes them, causing slippery surfaces and damage from sheer weight of ice accumulations; significant ice accumulations are usually ¼” or greater. • Blizzard – sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more; considerable blowing snow with visibility frequently below one-quarter mile prevailing over an extended period. • Severe Blizzard – Wind velocity of 45 mph, temperatures of 10°F or lower, a high density of blowing snow with visibility frequently measured in feet prevailing over an extended period. The NWS uses winter weather watches, warnings, and advisories to ensure that people know what to expect in the coming hours and days. • Watches o Blizzard – Conditions are favorable for blizzard conditions to be met in the next 12 to 48 hours. o Winter Storm - Issued when sinter storm conditions, defined above, are possible within 24 to 48 hours. • Warnings o Blizzard – Issued when sustained winds or frequent gusts ≥ 35 mph combined with blowing and or falling snow, reducing visibility below 1/4 mile for 3 hours or more, when imminent or expected within the next 36 hours. Temperatures are assumed below 32°F, and snow should accumulate at least one inch in 12 hours. o Winter Storm - Issued when the following conditions, capable of producing high impact and potentially life threatening conditions, are occurring or expected to occur within the 36 hours: snow - ≥1 inch in 12 hours; sleet - ≥1/2 inch in 12 hours; and or a combination of snow, sleet, ice with snow or sleet meeting warning criteria o Ice Storm - Issued when ≥1/8 inch of Ice is expected to accrete on trees, power lines, and bridges/overpasses for the entirety of the event. These conditions are capable of producing high impact and potentially life threatening conditions and are either occurring or expected to occur within the next 36 hours. • Advisories o Winter Weather - Issued when the following conditions, capable of producing significant, but not necessarily life threatening, inconveniences, are occurring or expected to occur within the next 36 hours: ▪ Snow: 1/2 to 1 inch in 12 hours ▪ Sleet: < 1/2 inch in 12 hours ▪ Ice: < 1/8 inch in 12 hours ▪ Combination: Snow, sleet, and ice with snow or sleet meeting advisory criteria. Section 4.3.12 - Severe Winter Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-125 2022 Update Worst-Case Scenario Overall, the maximum winter weather extent that can be expected in Galveston County is an RSI Category 3 snowfall event. Because the County is located in the National Centers for Environmental Information’s south climate region, the amount of snow that can fall for this category event is up to 10 inches; however, the area will most likely see lower amounts of snow based on history of occurrence. A winter storm of that magnitude has the potential to cause between $16-166 billion in property damage countywide. A worst-case severe winter storm scenario would be a storm similar to that of the February 2021 ice storm that brought extreme temperature lows, deaths and injuries, significant buildup of ice on structures and infrastructure including highway overpasses. A storm like this could lead to downed trees and power lines, power outages, closed roadways, and overall impact to the planning area. This would lead to disruption in emergency services and limited access to essentials (e.g. water, heat). Previous Occurrences and Losses Many sources have provided historical information regarding previous occurrences and losses associated with severe winter storm events in Galveston County. According to the NOAA-NCEI storm events database, Galveston County has been impacted by four winter weather events between 1950 and 2021. Table 4-64 and Table 4-65 summarize these statistics (NOAA-NCEI 2020). Table 4-64. Severe Winter Events 1950-2021 Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1950 and 2021 Total Fatalities Total Injuries Total Property Damage ($) Total Crop Damage ($) Blizzard 0 0 0 $0 $0 Heavy Snow 1 0 0 $0 $0 Ice Storm 3 9 0 $12 million $0 Sleet 0 0 0 $0 $0 Winter Storm 0 0 0 0 0 Winter Weather 0 0 0 $0 $0 Total 4 9 0 $12 million $0 Source: NOAA-NCEI 2021 Note: NOAA-NCEI database includes winter-related events starting in 1996. Events that occurred prior to 1996 are not included in the table. Between 1953 and 2021, FEMA included the State of Texas in one winter storm-related major disaster (DR) declaration classified as a severe ice storm. Generally, these disasters cover a wide region of the state; therefore, they may have impacted many counties. Galveston County was included that winter storm-related declaration (FEMA 2021). For the 2022 update, severe winter weather events were summarized from 2016 to 2021 (see Table 4-65). For events prior to 2016, refer to the 2016 Galveston County HMP. Table 4-65. Severe Winter Weather Events in Galveston County, 2016 to 2021 Dates of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number County Designated? Event Details* February 11-21, 2021 Ice Storm DR-4586 Yes Very cold air and gusty winds overspread SE Texas behind an Arctic front with wind chill indices from near zero to single digits for much the period from Sunday night to Tuesday morning. Increased power demand, wind and ice led to widespread power outages. Bursting pipes caused many to be without water as well. Numerous fatalities Section 4.3.12 - Severe Winter Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-126 2022 Update Table 4-65. Severe Winter Weather Events in Galveston County, 2016 to 2021 Dates of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number County Designated? Event Details* resulted both from hypothermia, carbon monoxide poisoning and other effects. Sources: FEMA 2021; NOAA-NCEI 2021 * Many sources were consulted to provide an update of previous occurrences and losses; event details and loss/impact information may vary and has been summarized in the above table FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency NCEI National Centers for Environmental Information Climate Change Projections Changes in climate can affect how much snow falls and influence the timing of the winter snow season. Changes in the amount of snow covering the ground, and changes in how the snow melts in the spring, will affect the water supplies that people use for things like farming and making electricity (NSIDC 2010). With these projections, the County might not experience an increase in winter weather events, but the lack of snow could impact the water supply. According to the National Climate Assessment, rising air and water temperatures and changes in precipitation are intensifying droughts, increasing heavy downpours, reducing snowpack, and causing declines in surface water quality, with varying impacts across regions. Future warming will add to the stress on water supplies and adversely impact the availability of water in parts of the United States (USGCRP 2018). Probability of Future Occurrences For the 2022 HMP update, the most up-to-date data was collected to calculate the probability of future occurrence of winter storm events, of all types, for Galveston County. Table 4-66 summarizes data regarding the probability of occurrences of severe winter storm events in the County based on the historic record. The information used to calculate the probability of occurrences is based on NOAA-NCEI storm events and FEMA database results. Table 4-66. Probability of Future Occurrence of Severe Winter Weather Events in Galveston County Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1950 and 2021 % chance of occurrence in any given year Blizzard 0 0% Heavy Snow 1 1.39% Ice Storm 3 4.17% Sleet 0 0% Winter Storm 0 0% Winter Weather 0 0% Total 4 5.56% Source: NOAA-NCEI 2021, FEMA 2021 Note: Disaster occurrences include federally declared disasters since the 1950 Federal Disaster Relief Act and selected severe winter weather events since 1968. Due to limitations in data, not all severe winter weather events occurring between 1954 and 1996 are accounted for in the tally of occurrences. As a result, the number of hazard occurrences is underestimated. Based on the number of winter weather events, the County averages less than one winter weather event each year. A winter weather event has a 5.56% chance of occurring in any given year. Based on the history of events and input from the Steering Committee, the probability for severe winter storm events occurring in Galveston Section 4.3.12 - Severe Winter Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-127 2022 Update County is considered rare (between 1 and 10% annual chance of occurring). Refer to Section 4.4 for additional information on the hazard ranking methodology and probability criteria. Vulnerability Assessment To understand risk, a community must evaluate assets exposed to and vulnerable to the identified hazard. The entirety of Galveston County is exposed and vulnerable to the severe winter storm hazard; therefore, all assets within the County (population, structures, critical facilities, and lifelines), as described in Section 3 (County Profile), are potentially vulnerable to a winter weather event. The following text evaluates and estimates the potential impact of the severe winter storm hazard in the County. Impact on Life, Health and Safety For the purposes of this HMP, the entire population of the County (350,682) is exposed to winter storm events (U.S. Census 2015-2019 ACS 5-Year Population Estimate). The homeless and elderly are considered most susceptible to this hazard; the homeless due to their lack of shelter and the elderly due to their increased risk of injuries and death from falls and overexertion or hypothermia from attempts to clear snow and ice. According to the 2019 ACS 5-Year Population Estimate, 13.1 percent of the population in Galveston County is 65 and over. Winter storm events can reduce the ability of these populations to access emergency services. Winter weather can immobilize a region and paralyze a city. Additional impacts include stranding commuters, stopping the flow of supplies, and disrupting emergency and medical services. Accumulations of snow can collapse buildings and knock down trees and power lines. The cost of snow removal, repairing damages, and loss of business can have large economic impacts on cities and towns (NSSL 2006) Impact on General Building Stock The entire general building stock inventory in Galveston County is exposed and potentially vulnerable to the severe winter storm hazard; however, properties in poor condition or in particularly vulnerable locations may be at risk to the most damage. In general, structural impacts include damage to roofs and building frames rather than building content. Current modeling tools are not available to estimate specific losses for this hazard. As an alternate approach, the percent damage to structures that could result from severe winter storm conditions is considered. This allows planners and emergency managers to select a range of potential economic impact based on an estimate of the percent of damage to the general building stock. Table 4-67 summarizes the estimated loss to structures. Given professional knowledge and the currently available information, the potential loss for this hazard is considered to be overestimated because of varying factors (building structure type, age, load distribution, building codes in place). Therefore, the table’s data should be used as estimates only for planning purposes with the knowledge that the associated losses for severe winter storm events vary greatly. Table 4-67. General Building Stock Exposure and Estimated Losses from Severe Winter Storm Events Jurisdiction Total Replacement Cost Value (RCV) 1-Percent Exposure/Loss 5-Percent Exposure/Loss 10-Percent Exposure/Loss Bayou Vista (C) $445,354,087.33 $4,453,541 $22,267,704 $44,535,409 Clear Lake Shores (C) $904,562,368.66 $9,045,624 $45,228,118 $90,456,237 Dickinson (C) $6,601,710,645.63 $66,017,106 $330,085,532 $660,171,065 Friendswood (C) $10,815,456,384.12 $108,154,564 $540,772,819 $1,081,545,638 Hitchcock (C) $4,592,036,651.86 $45,920,367 $229,601,833 $459,203,665 Jamaica Beach (C) $458,205,838.82 $4,582,058 $22,910,292 $45,820,584 Section 4.3.12 - Severe Winter Storm Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-128 2022 Update Jurisdiction Total Replacement Cost Value (RCV) 1-Percent Exposure/Loss 5-Percent Exposure/Loss 10-Percent Exposure/Loss Kemah (C) $2,631,702,105.60 $26,317,021 $131,585,105 $263,170,211 La Marque (C) $7,927,292,522.28 $79,272,925 $396,364,626 $792,729,252 League City (C) $31,237,974,594.10 $312,379,746 $1,561,898,730 $3,123,797,459 Santa Fe (C) $4,831,628,162.13 $48,316,282 $241,581,408 $483,162,816 Tiki Island (V) $365,209,145.44 $3,652,091 $18,260,457 $36,520,915 Galveston County (Total) $166,321,604,688.46 $1,663,216,047 $8,316,080,234 $16,632,160,469 Source: Hazus 4.2, Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing 2018; RS Means 2021 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Impact on Critical Facilities Full functionality of critical facilities, such as police, fire, and medical facilities is essential for response during and after a severe winter storm event. These critical facility structures are largely constructed of concrete and masonry; therefore, they should only suffer minimal structural damage from severe winter storm events. Heavy accumulations of ice can bring down trees, electrical wires, telephone poles, utility lines, and communication towers. Communications and power can be disrupted for days while utility companies work to repair the extensive damage. Even small accumulations of ice can cause extreme hazards to motorists and pedestrians. Bridges and overpasses are particularly dangerous because they freeze before other surfaces (NSSL 2006). Winter weather events, such as ice storms, can lead to power outages. Therefore, it is recommended that critical facilities install backup power sources. Infrastructure at risk for this hazard includes roadways that could be damaged due to salt application and intermittent freezing and warming conditions that can damage roads over time. Severe snowfall requires the clearing roadways and alerting citizens to dangerous conditions; following the winter season, resources for road maintenance and repair might be required. Impact on Economy The cost of snow and ice removal and repair of roads from the freeze/thaw process can drain local financial resources. Impacts on the economy also include commuter difficulties into or out of the area for work or school. The loss of power and closure of roads prevent commuters within the county. Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that impact vulnerability in the county can assist in planning for future development and ensure that appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures are in place. The county considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that can affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development. • Projected changes in population. • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change. Projected Development Any areas of growth could be potentially impacted by the severe winter storm hazard because the entire County is exposed and vulnerable. The ability of new development to withstand severe winter storm impacts lies in sound land use practices and consistent enforcement of codes and regulations for new construction. Section 4.3.13 - Thunderstorm Wind Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-129 2022 Update Projected Changes in Population The County has experienced an increase in population between the 2010 Census (291,309) and the estimated 2015-2019 American Community Survey estimated population of 350,682. The population of the County is expected to increase over the next few years. With an increase in population, more people will be exposed to winter weather events. Additionally, the age of the population, changes in their geography, and how climate change could alter the winter weather received (rain versus snow) will be important to continue to assess future changes in vulnerability. Climate Change Climate is defined not just as average temperature and precipitation, but also by type, frequency, and intensity of weather events. Both globally and at the local level, climate change can potentially alter prevalence and severity of weather extremes, such as winter storms. While predicting changes in winter storm events under a changing climate is difficult, understanding vulnerabilities to potential changes is a critical part of estimating future climate change impacts on human health, society, and the environment (U.S. EPA 2006). Based on the projections, the County can expect to experience more rain than snow during the winter months. In the immediate future, Galveston County can anticipate continuing to experience the impacts of winter weather events. Change of Vulnerability Since 2017 HMP Galveston County’s population increased since the last plan; increasing the number of people impacted during a winter weather event. Therefore, the entire County remains vulnerable to severe winter storm events. Furthermore, the 2017 HMP did not include a quantitative analysis of impacts on building stock, considering it negligible. However, a 1-percent exposure can result in $1.6 in damages. While winter weather is a rare occurrence, they can occur and cause impacts. 4.3.13 Thunderstorm Wind The following section provides the hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the wind -related events associated with thunderstorms in Galveston County. Profile Hazard Description A thunderstorm is a storm with lightning and thunder produced by cumulonimbus clouds, usually producing wind gusts, heavy rain, and sometimes hail or tornadoes (NWS n.d.). Thunderstorms are usually short-lived (less than two hours), but they can deliver strong winds and enough rain to cause urban or flash flooding. The NWS considers a thunderstorm severe only if it produces damaging wind gusts of 58 mph or higher or large hail one inch (quarter size) in diameter or larger or tornadoes (NWS n.d.). Thunderstorms can occur at any time. However, they usually occur during the spring and summer months and during the afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are most common from Texas to southern Minnesota; however, severe storms can occur anywhere in the United States (NOAA n.d.). It is estimated that each year there are 16 million thunderstorms worldwide. Approximately 100,000 thunderstorms occur in the United States each year (NSSL 2020). Figure 4-41 illustrates the average number of days with thunderstorms using data from 1993 to 2018. This figure shows that Galveston County experiences between 63 and 72 days of thunderstorms each year. Section 4.3.13 - Thunderstorm Wind Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-130 2022 Update Figure 4-41. Annual Mean Thunderstorm Days, 1993-2018 Source: National Weather Service Note: The approximate location of Galveston County is outlined in a red circle. Thunderstorms can lead to flooding, landslides, strong winds, tornadoes, lightning, and hail. Roads could become impassable from flooding, downed trees or power lines, or a landslide. Strong straight-line winds (up to more than 12 mph) associated with thunderstorms can down trees and utility poles, causing utility outages. Thunderstorms can create tornadoes with winds of up to 300 mph. Lightning can damage homes and injure people. In the United States, an average of 300 people are injured and 80 people are killed by lightning each year. Thunderstorms can produce hail up to the size of softballs damaging cars and windows, and killing livestock caught out in the open (NOAA n.d.). High winds are often associated by other severe weather events such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and tropical storms. Wind begins with differences in air pressures. It is usually horizontal movement of air caused by the uneven heating of the Earth by the sun and the Earth's own rotation. Winds range from light breezes to natural hazards (National Geographic Society 2021). Location Since thunderstorms can develop anywhere in the United States, all of Galveston County is exposed and vulnerable to the impacts of thunderstorms. Extent Severe thunderstorm watches and warnings are issued by the local NWS office and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The NWS and SPC will update the watches and warnings and notify the public when they are no longer in effect. Watches and warnings for thunderstorms in Galveston County are as follows: Section 4.3.13 - Thunderstorm Wind Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-131 2022 Update • Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are issued when there is evidence based on radar or a reliable spotter report that a thunderstorm is producing, or forecast to produce, wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, structural wind damage, or hail one inch in diameter or greater. A warning will include where the storm was located, what municipalities will be impacted, and the primary threat associated with the severe thunderstorm warning. After it has been issued, the NWS office will follow up periodically with Severe Weather Statements that contain updated information on the severe thunderstorm and advise the public when the warning is no longer in effect (NOAA NWS 2009). • Severe Thunderstorm Watches are issued by the SPC when conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms over a larger-scale region for a duration of at least three hours. Tornadoes are not expected in such situations, but isolated tornado development can also occur. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued when an organized episode of hail 1 inch diameter or larger and/or damaging thunderstorm winds are expected during a two-to-eight-hour period. During the watch, the NWS will keep the public informed on what is happening in the watch area and also advise public when the watch has expired or been cancelled (SPC 2021) (NOAA NWS 2009). Figure 4-42 presents the severe thunderstorm risk categories, as provided by the SPC. Figure 4-42. Severe Thunderstorm Risk Categories. Source: SPC 2020 Winds associated with thunderstorms are measured according to the Beaufort Wind Scale, as outlined in Table 4-68. This scale was one of the first to estimate wind speeds. It starts with 0 and goes to a force of 12. Table 4-68. Beaufort Wind Scale Force Wind (Knots) WMO Classification Appearance of Wind Effects on Land 0 Less than 1 Calm Calm, smoke rises vertically 1 1-3 Light Air Smoke drift indicates wind direction, still wind vanes 2 4-6 Light Breeze Wind felt on face, leaves rustle, vanes begin to move 3 7-10 Gentle Breeze Leaves and small twigs constantly moving, light flags extended 4 11-16 Moderate Breeze Dust, leaves, and loose paper lifted; small tree branches move Section 4.3.13 - Thunderstorm Wind Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-132 2022 Update Force Wind (Knots) WMO Classification Appearance of Wind Effects on Land 5 17-21 Fresh Breeze Small trees in leaf begin to sway 6 22-27 Strong Breeze Larger tree branches moving, whistling in wires 7 28-33 Near Gale Whole trees moving, resistance felt walking against wind 8 34-40 Gale Twigs breaking off trees, generally impedes progress 9 41-47 Strong Gale Slight structural damage occurs, slate blows off roofs 10 48-55 Storm Seldom experienced on land, trees broken, or uprooted, considerable structural damage occurs 11 56-63 Violent Storm If experienced on land, widespread damage 12 64+ Hurricane Violence and destruction Source: (NWS n.d.) The NWS issues advisories and warnings for winds. Issuance is normally site-specific. High wind advisories, watches, and warnings are products issued by the NWS when wind speeds can pose a hazard or are life threatening. The criterion for each of these varies from state to state. According to the NWS, wind warnings and advisories for Galveston County are as follows: • High Wind Warnings are issued when sustained wind speeds of 40 mph or greater lasting for one hour or longer or for wind gusts of 58 mph or greater for any duration. • Wind Advisories are issues when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph are forecast for one hour or longer, or wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph for any duration (NWS n.d.). Worst-Case Scenario A worst-case scenario would involve prolonged high winds of 85 mph, Force 12 on the Beaufort Wind Scale, during a thunderstorm event. This type of event would have both a short- and long-term effects on Galveston County. The strong winds would lead to downed trees and power lines, creating road closures and countywide power outages. Parts of the County could experience limited ingress and egress. Previous Occurrences and Losses Many sources have provided historical information regarding previous occurrences and losses associated with thunderstorms in Galveston County. According to the NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database, there were 203 thunderstorm wind events recorded in Galveston County between 1950 and November 2021. Damages reported for these events totaled over $53 million (refer to Table 4-69). Table 4-69. Thunderstorm Wind Events in Galveston County, 1950-2021 Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1950 and 2021 Total Fatalities Total Injuries Total Property Damage ($) Total Crop Damage ($) Thunderstorm Wind 203 0 7 $53,133,000 $8,500 Source: NOAA-NCEI 2021 Note: Due to limitations in data, not all thunderstorm wind events occurring between 1950 and 1996 are accounted for in the tally of occurrences. As a result, the number of hazard occurrences is underestimated Between 1953 and 2021, the State of Texas was included in seven thunderstorm-related FEMA major disaster (DR) or emergency (EM) declarations. Of those declarations, Galveston County was included in two declarations. Table 4-70 lists FEMA DR and EM declarations for Galveston County. Table 4-70. Thunderstorm-Related FEMA Declarations for Galveston County, 1953 to 2021 FEMA Declaration Number Date(s) of Event Incident Type Incident Title DR-1041 October 14-November 8, 1994 Flood Severe Thunderstorms and Flooding Section 4.3.13 - Thunderstorm Wind Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-133 2022 Update FEMA Declaration Number Date(s) of Event Incident Type Incident Title DR-4245 October 22-31, 2015 Severe Storm Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight- line Winds, and Flooding Source: FEMA 2021 For the 2022 HMP update, known thunderstorm wind events were summarized from 2016 to 2021 (see Table 4-71). For events prior to 2016, refer to the 2017 Galveston County HMP. For detailed information on damages and impacts to each municipality, refer to Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes). The events listed in Table 4-71 represent only those that were reported to the NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database and FEMA and may not represent all events that occurred or impacted the County since 2016. Section 4.3.13 - Thunderstorm Wind Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-134 2022 Update Table 4-71. Thunderstorm Wind in Galveston County, 2016 to 2021 Date(s) of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number (if applicable) County Designated? Magnitude (wind speed in knots) Fatalities Injuries Damages Event Details* February 14, 2017 Thunderstorm Wind - - 52 0 0 $4000 Six power poles were blown down near the intersection of Highway 87 and Helen Blvd. February 14, 2017 Thunderstorm Wind - - 53 0 0 $12000 A couple of trees were downed (one on a house) along Avenue I between 21st Street and 24th Street. February 14, 2017 Thunderstorm Wind - - 53 0 0 $4000 Power poles were snapped at Crenshaw Elementary School. October 20, 2017 Thunderstorm Wind - - 50 0 0 $0 Damage was reported near the intersection of FM 646 and Highway 3. March 29, 2018 Thunderstorm Wind - - 50 0 0 $1000 There was some minor residential awning and tree limb damage. March 29, 2018 Thunderstorm Wind - - 50 0 0 $0 An oleander tree was knocked down and a wooden bench swing collapsed around the intersection of 15th Street and Avenue M. March 29, 2018 Thunderstorm Wind - - 52 0 0 $1000 A power pole was downed near an apartment complex on 21st Street. June 9, 2018 Thunderstorm Wind - - 52 0 0 $3000 Numerous trees were downed off of Gordy Road. October 31, 2018 Thunderstorm Wind - - 56 0 0 $0 Thunderstorm winds caused minor structure damage. Winds rolled over an exposed, non-anchored mobile trailer off of Dike Drive. October 31, 2018 Thunderstorm Wind - - 50 0 0 $0 Thunderstorm winds downed two palm trees on Harborside Drive and 29th Street. October 31, 2018 Thunderstorm Wind - - 52 0 0 $0 There was a report of a collapsed residence on Ave S and 47th street. January 19, 2019 Thunderstorm Wind - - 50 0 0 $15000 Trees and fences were downed and there were damaged and destroyed trampolines, gazebos, barn roofs and retail signs. April 7, 2019 Thunderstorm Wind - - 53 0 0 $0 There were trees blown down. April 7, 2019 Thunderstorm Wind - - 52 0 0 $0 There were trees downed. April 7, 2019 Thunderstorm Wind - - 55 0 0 $7000 Some travel trailers were flipped over. May 9, 2019 Thunderstorm Wind - - 55 0 0 $0 There were reports of trees and power lines downed along Highway 96 just west of Highway 3. May 9, 2019 Thunderstorm Wind - - 55 0 0 $0 Thunderstorm winds damaged the roof of the volunteer fire department. June 29, 2019 Thunderstorm Wind - - 60 0 0 $0 A large area of the Bolivar Peninsula was without power after strong thunderstorm wind gusts were observed. May 27, 2020 Thunderstorm Wind - - 56 0 0 $11000 There was some roof damage to a Texas City business. Section 4.3.13 - Thunderstorm Wind Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-135 2022 Update Date(s) of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number (if applicable) County Designated? Magnitude (wind speed in knots) Fatalities Injuries Damages Event Details* May 27, 2020 Thunderstorm Wind - - 56 0 0 $5500 Large tree limbs and some fencing were blown down. May 27, 2020 Thunderstorm Wind - - 61 0 0 $0 The wind gust was measured at KGLS. April 23, 2021 Thunderstorm Wind - - 50 0 0 $0 Local emergency managers reported a travel trailer knocked over by strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Source(s): FEMA 2021; NOAA-NCEI 2021 * Many sources were consulted to provide an update of previous occurrences and losses; event details and loss/impact information may vary and has been summarized in the above table - Not available/not recorded FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency NCEI National Centers for Environmental Information Section 4.3.13 - Thunderstorm Wind Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-136 2022 Update Climate Change Projections The climate of Texas is changing. Most of the State has warmed between one half and one degree Fahrenheit in the past century. In the eastern two-thirds of the State, average annual rainfall is increasing; however, the soil is becoming drier. Rainstorms are more intense, and floods are becoming more severe. In the coming decades, storms are likely to become more severe in Texas (EPA 2016). Major clusters of summertime thunderstorms in North America will grow larger, more intense, and more frequent later this century in a changing climate, leading to increased rainfall and posing a greater threat of flooding across wide areas (UCAR 2017). Probability of Future Occurrences Table 4-72 summarizes data regarding the probability of occurrences of thunderstorm events in Galveston County based on the historic record. The information used to calculate the probability of occurrences is based on the 2017 Galveston County HMP, the NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database, and FEMA. Table 4-72. Probability of Future Occurrence of Thunderstorm Events Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1950 and 2021 % chance of occurrence in any given year Thunderstorm Wind 205 100% Source: NOAA-NCEI 2021; FEMA 2021; Galveston County HMP 2017 Note: Disaster occurrences include federally declared disasters since the 1950 Federal Disaster Relief Act, and selected thunderstorm wind events since 1968. Due to limitations in data, not all thunderstorm wind events occurring between 1954 and 1996 are accounted for in the tally of occurrences. As a result, the number of hazard occurrences is underestimated. Galveston County is expected to continue experiencing the direct and indirect impacts of thunderstorms each year. Over 200 thunderstorm wind events were recorded in 71 years, giving the County a 100% chance of being impacted by a thunderstorm in any given year. However, based on historical records and input from the Steering Committee, the probability of occurrence for thunderstorm wind events in the County is considered frequent (100% chance occurring; occurs multiple times a year). Refer to Section 4.4 for additional information on the hazard ranking methodology and probability criteria. Vulnerability Assessment To understand risk, a community must evaluate assets exposed to and vulnerable to the identified hazard. The entirety of Galveston County is exposed and vulnerable to the thunderstorm hazard; therefore, all assets within the County (population, structures, critical facilities, and lifelines), as described in Section 3 (County Profile), are potentially vulnerable to a thunderstorm event. The following text evaluates and estimates the potential impact of the thunderstorm hazard in the County. Impact on Life, Health and Safety The most common problems associated with thunderstorms are immobility and loss of utilities. Although the entire population of the County is exposed to thunderstorms, some populations are more vulnerable. Vulnerable populations include the elderly, low income, linguistically isolated populations, people with life-threatening illnesses, and residents living in areas that are isolated from major roads. Power outages can be life threatening to those dependent on electricity for life support. In general, populations who lack adequate shelter during a thunderstorm, those who are reliant on sustained sources of power in order to survive, and those who live in isolated areas with limited ingress and egress options are the most vulnerable. The impact of thunderstorms on life, health, and safety is dependent upon several factors including the severity of the event and whether adequate warning time was provided to residents. The entire population of Galveston County (350,682) is assumed to be exposed to this hazard (2015-2019 ACS 5-Year Population Estimate). Section 4.3.13 - Thunderstorm Wind Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-137 2022 Update People located outdoors (i.e., recreational activities and farming) are considered most vulnerable to hailstorms, thunderstorms, and tornadoes because there is little to no warning, and shelter might not be available. Moving to a lower risk location will decrease a person’s vulnerability. As a result of severe weather events, residents can be displaced or require temporary to long-term sheltering. The HAZUS-MH results for the 100-year and 500-year MRP hurricane wind events are able to show displaced households and people requiring short-term sheltering. 5,769 households will be displaced, and 3,725 people will require short-term sheltering in the 100-year event. 25,021 households will be displaced, and 16,068 people will require short-term sheltering in the 500-year event. Table 4-73. Displaced Households and Short-Term Sheltering Jurisdiction 100-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane 500-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane Displaced Households Persons Seeking Short-Term Sheltering Displaced Households Persons Seeking Short-Term Sheltering Bayou Vista (C) 36 15 125 52 Clear Lake Shores (C) 52 21 231 94 Dickinson (C) 284 207 1,458 1,054 Friendswood (C) 270 145 1,410 756 Hitchcock (C) 88 62 409 286 Jamaica Beach (C) 9 4 30 13 Kemah (C) 72 44 236 139 La Marque (C) 239 164 1,137 790 League City (C) 1,152 638 6,500 3,697 Santa Fe (C) 218 130 1,042 618 Tiki Island (V) 23 10 80 33 Galveston County (Total) 5,769 3,725 25,021 16,068 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Economically disadvantaged populations are more vulnerable because they often evaluate evacuation needs and make decisions based on the economic impact to their family. The population over the age of 65 (46,103) is also vulnerable, can physically have difficulty evacuating, and are more likely to seek or need medical attention, which may not be available due to isolation during a storm event (U.S. Census 2019 ACS 5-Year Population Estimate). Section 3 (County Profile) provides for the statistics for these populations for Galveston County. Impact on General Building Stock Damage to buildings is dependent upon several factors, including wind speed, storm duration, and path of the storm track. Building construction also plays a major role in the extent of damage resulting from a storm. Due to differences in construction, residential structures are generally more susceptible to wind damage than commercial and industrial structures. Wood and masonry buildings, in general, regardless of their occupancy class, tend to experience more damage than concrete or steel buildings. To better understand these risks, Hazus was used to estimate the expected wind-related building damages. Specific types of wind damages are also summarized in Hazus at the following wind damage categories: no damage/very minor damage, minor damage, moderate damage, severe damage, and total destruction. Table 4-74 summarizes the definition of the damage categories. Section 4.3.13 - Thunderstorm Wind Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-138 2022 Update Table 4-74. Description of Damage Categories Qualitative Damage Description Roof Cover Failure Window Door Failures Roof Deck Missile Impacts on Walls Roof Structure Failure Wall Structure Failure No Damage or Very Minor Damage Little or no visible damage from the outside. No broken windows, or failed roof deck. Minimal loss of roof over, with no or very Limited water penetration. ≤2% No No No No No Minor Damage Maximum of one broken window, door, or garage door. Moderate roof cover loss that can be covered to prevent additional water entering the building. Marks or dents on walls requiring painting or patching for repair. >2% and ≤15% One window, door, or garage door failure No <5 impacts No No Moderate Damage Major roof cover damage, moderate window breakage. Minor roof sheathing failure. Some resulting damage to interior of building from water. >15% and ≤50% > one and ≤ the larger of 20% & 3 1 to 3 panels Typically 5 to 10 impacts No No Severe Damage Major window damage or roof sheathing loss. Major roof cover loss. Extensive damage to interior from water. >50% > the larger of 20% & 3 and ≤50% >3 and ≤25% Typically 10 to 20 impacts No No Destruction Complete roof failure and/or, failure of wall frame. Loss of more than 50% of roof sheathing. Typically >50% >50% >25% Typically >20 impacts Yes Yes Table 4-75. Estimated Losses for the 100-Year MRP Hurricane Wind Events Jurisdiction Building Replacement Cost Value Estimated Building Losses Caused by the 100-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane Percent of Total Estimated Building Losses Caused by the 100-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane for Residential Structures Only Estimated Building Losses Caused by the 100-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane for Commercial Structures Only Bayou Vista (C) $287,902,599.47 $36,983,852 12.8% $30,661,401 $4,810,433 Clear Lake Shores (C) $519,006,216.88 $53,521,768 10.3% $44,602,868 $8,161,448 Dickinson (C) $3,924,480,999.53 $288,661,121 7.4% $200,469,958 $56,870,394 Friendswood (C) $6,532,042,745.35 $406,504,909 6.2% $336,560,004 $53,763,471 Hitchcock (C) $2,606,611,538.31 $158,617,043 6.1% $91,124,991 $49,025,770 Jamaica Beach (C) $292,462,937.69 $31,500,492 10.8% $26,697,522 $4,078,968 Kemah (C) $1,410,211,778.23 $96,243,976 6.8% $54,140,360 $37,997,929 La Marque (C) $4,518,194,733.81 $312,776,831 6.9% $194,440,522 $70,454,482 League City (C) $18,876,791,173.65 $1,389,159,281 7.4% $1,127,306,904 $201,230,703 Santa Fe (C) $2,826,459,977.04 $252,241,130 8.9% $171,659,441 $38,509,804 Tiki Island (V) $240,413,556.57 $23,596,649 9.8% $19,570,959 $3,059,031 Galveston County (Total) $96,229,561,611.86 $8,513,160,224 8.8% $5,339,350,583 $2,253,000,595 Source: Hazus-MH 4.2 Notes: MRP = Mean return period Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Section 4.3.13 - Thunderstorm Wind Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-139 2022 Update Impact on Critical Facilities Overall, all critical facilities in Galveston County are vulnerable to being affected by thunderstorms. Utility infrastructure could suffer damage from high winds associated with falling tree limbs or other debris, resulting in the loss of power or other utility service. Loss of service can impact residents, critical facilities, and business operations alike. Interruptions in heating or cooling utilities can affect populations, such the young and elderly, who are particularly vulnerable to temperature-related health impacts. Loss of power can impact other public utilities, including potable water, wastewater treatment, and communications. In addition to public water services, property owners with private wells might not have access to potable water until power is restored. Lack of power to emergency facilities, including police, fire, EMS, and hospitals, will inhibit a community’s ability to effective respond to an event and maintain the safety of its citizens. Hazus estimates that critical facilities in Galveston County have a low percent probability of sustaining minor to moderate damages from the 100-year MRP hurricane wind event. Hazus also estimates that there are critical facilities that have a 65.8-percent probability of sustaining severe damage from the 500-year MRP hurricane wind event. These probabilities can be found in Table 4-76 and Table 4-77 by facility type. Table 4-76. Estimated Impacts to Critical Facilities for the 100-Year MRP Hurricane Wind Event Facility Type 100-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane Loss of Days Percent-Probability of Sustaining Damage Minor Moderate Severe Complete EOC 0 18.1% - 23.3% 24.1% - 30.6% 10.2% - 29.8% 0.0% Medical Facilities 1 - 6 10.3% - 15.1% 29.7% - 41.8% 3.4% - 17.3% <0.1% - 1.3% Police Stations 0 16.3% - 23.4% 22.4% - 30.7% 9.0% - 35.1% 0.0% - <0.1% Fire Stations/EMS 0 11.0% - 14.9% 16.5% - 30.1% 4.3% - 23.3% 0.1% - 2.1% Schools 7 - 70 3.7% - 10.2% 38.3% - 47.7% 5.3% - 33.3% <0.1% - 0.1% Source: Hazus-MH v4.2 Table 4-77. Estimated Impacts to Critical Facilities for the 500-Year MRP Hurricane Wind Event Facility Type 500-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane Loss of Days Percent-Probability of Sustaining Damage Minor Moderate Severe Complete EOC 0 - 4 12.0% - 15.3% 29.2% - 31.1% 38.0% - 47.0% <0.1% Medical Facilities 6 - 31 4.2% - 10.5% 35.5% - 42.0% 16.8% - 40.6% 1.0% - 5.7% Police Stations 0 - 1 7.9% - 19.6% 24.2% - 31.2% 26.6% - 60.6% 0.0% - 0.1% Fire Stations/EMS 0 - 1 2.5% - 12.2% 20.8% - 32.6% 17.1% - 50.3% 1.1% - 19.4% Schools 35 - 310 2.1% - 5.8% 10.7% - 46.1% 22.5% - 65.8% 0.3% - 16.5% Source: Hazus-MH v4.2 Impact on Economy Thunderstorm events can impact the economy of the County. Impacts include loss of business function, damage to inventory, relocation costs, wage loss, and rental loss due to the repair or replacement of buildings. Business interruption losses include losses associated with the inability to operate a business because of the wind damage sustained during a storm or the temporary living expenses for those displaced from their home because of an event. Section 4.3.13 - Thunderstorm Wind Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-140 2022 Update Impacts to transportation lifelines affect both short-term (e.g., evacuation activities) and long-term (e.g., day-to- day commuting and goods transport) transportation needs. Utility infrastructure (power lines, gas lines, electrical systems) could suffer damage and impacts can result in the loss of power, which can impact business operations and can impact heating or cooling provision to the population. Hazus estimates the total economic loss associated with each storm scenario (direct building losses and business interruption losses). Direct building losses are the estimated costs to repair or replace the damage caused to the building. This is reported in the “Impact on General Building Stock” section discussed earlier. Business interruption losses are the losses associated with the inability to operate a business because of the wind damage sustained during the storm or the temporary living expenses for those displaced from their home because of the event. Debris management can be costly and may also impact the local economy. Hazus estimates the amount of building and tree debris that may be produced as result of the 100- and 500-year MRP wind events. Because the estimated debris production does not include flooding, this is likely a conservative estimate and may be higher if multiple impacts occur. According to the Hazus Hurricane User Manual, estimates of weight and volume of eligible tree debris consist of downed trees that would likely be collected and disposed at public expense. Refer to the User Manual for additional details regarding these estimates. Table 4-78 and Table 4-79 summarizes debris production estimates for the 100- and 500-year MRP wind events. Table 4-78. Estimated Debris Created During the 100-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane Wind Event Jurisdiction Estimated Debris Created During the 100-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane Wind Event** Brick and Wood (Tons) Concrete and Steel (Tons) Tree (Tons) Eligible Tree Volume (Cubic Yards) Bayou Vista (C) 13,342 57 0 0 Clear Lake Shores (C) 3,843 17 0 0 Dickinson (C) 234,729 732 0 0 Friendswood (C) 11,300 50 0 0 Hitchcock (C) 3,733 18 0 0 Jamaica Beach (C) 18,206 75 0 0 Kemah (C) 16,447 73 0 0 La Marque (C) 17,982 83 0 0 League City (C) 3,426 14 0 0 Santa Fe (C) 4,377 18 0 0 Tiki Island (V) 8,748 40 0 0 Galveston County (Total) 21,256 85 0 0 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Table 4-79. Estimated Debris Created During the 500-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane Wind Event Jurisdiction Estimated Debris Created During the 500-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane Wind Event** Brick and Wood (Tons) Concrete and Steel (Tons) Tree (Tons) Eligible Tree Volume (Cubic Yards) Bayou Vista (C) 19,524 115 0 0 Clear Lake Shores (C) 7,120 52 0 0 Dickinson (C) 1,078,099 7,295 0 0 Friendswood (C) 17,059 106 0 0 Hitchcock (C) 12,292 125 0 0 Section 4.3.13 - Thunderstorm Wind Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-141 2022 Update Jurisdiction Estimated Debris Created During the 500-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane Wind Event** Brick and Wood (Tons) Concrete and Steel (Tons) Tree (Tons) Eligible Tree Volume (Cubic Yards) Jamaica Beach (C) 31,113 191 0 0 Kemah (C) 29,188 196 0 0 La Marque (C) 57,036 526 0 0 League City (C) 6,632 43 0 0 Santa Fe (C) 7,104 44 0 0 Tiki Island (V) 29,359 272 0 0 Galveston County (Total) 42,147 265 0 0 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Impact on the Environment The impact of thunderstorm wind events on the environment varies, but researchers are finding that the long- term impacts of more severe events can be destructive to the natural and local environment. National organizations such as USGS and NOAA have been studying and monitoring the impacts of extreme weather phenomena as it impacts long term climate change, streamflow, river levels, reservoir elevations, rainfall, floods, landslides, erosion, etc. (USGS 2017). For example, severe weather that creates longer periods of rainfall can erode natural banks along waterways and degrade soil stability for terrestrial species. Tornadoes can tear apart habitats causing fragmentation across ecosystems. Researchers also believe that a greater number of diseases will spread across ecosystems because of impacts that severe weather and climate change will have on water supplies (NOAA 2013c). Overall, as the physical environment becomes more altered, species will begin to contract or migrate in response, which may cause additional stressors to the entire ecosystem within Galveston County. Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that effect vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensure establishment of appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development. • Projected changes in population. • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change. Projected Development Understanding future changes that impact vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensuring that appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures are in place. Areas targeted for potential future growth and development could be potentially impacted by thunderstorms since the entire County is exposed to the thunderstorm hazard. However, due to increased standards and codes, new development can be less vulnerable to the thunderstorm hazard compared with the aging building stock in the County. Projected Changes in Population The County experienced an increase in population between the 2010 Census (291,309) and the estimated 2015- 2019 American Community Survey estimated population of 350,682. The population of the County is expected to increase over the next few years. The increase in population will expose more people to the thunderstorm hazard. Section 4.3.14 - Tornadoes Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-142 2022 Update Climate Change Major clusters of summertime thunderstorms in North America will grow larger, more intense, and more frequent later this century in a changing climate, unleashing far more rain and posing a greater threat of flooding across wide areas (UCAR 2017). An increase in storms will produce more wind events and may increase tornado activity. Additionally, an increase in temperature will provide more energy to produce storms that generate tornadoes (Climate Central 2016). Overall, Galveston County will continue to remain vulnerable to the thunderstorm hazard. Changes in Vulnerability Since the 2017 HMP Overall, the County’s vulnerability has not changed, and the entire County will continue to be exposed and vulnerable to thunderstorm wind events. As existing development and infrastructure continue to age, they can be at increased risk to failed utility and transportation systems if they are not properly maintained and do not adapt to the changing environment. 4.3.14 Tornadoes The following section provides the hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the tornado hazard in Galveston County. Profile Hazard Description A tornado appears as a rotating, funnel-shaped cloud that extends from a thunderstorm to the ground with whirling winds that can reach 300 miles per hour. Damage paths can be greater than 1 mile wide and 50 miles long. Tornadoes typically develop from either a severe thunderstorm or hurricane as cool air rapidly overrides a layer of warm air. Tornadoes typically move at speeds between 30 and 125 mph and can generate combined wind speeds (forward motion and speed of the whirling winds) exceeding 300 mph. Most tornadoes are on the ground for less than 15 minutes (NWS n.d.). Tornadoes can occur at any time of the year, with peak season for Texas from May into early June (NOAA n.d.). An average of 1,141 tornadoes occur in the United States each year, based on tornadoes recorded between 1985 and 2014. The State of Texas averages 140 tornadoes each year. Section 4.3.14 - Tornadoes Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-143 2022 Update Figure 4-43. Average Annual Number of Tornadoes, 1985 to 2014 Source: SPC 2021 Location Similar to that of thunderstorms, tornadoes do not have any specific geographic boundary and can occur anywhere in Galveston County. According to the FEMA Winds Zones of the United States map, the County is located in Wind Zones III, where wind speeds can reach up to 200 mph. Additionally, the County is located in the hurricane-susceptible region. FEMA . Figure 4-44 illustrates wind zones across the United States, which indicate the impacts of the strength and frequency of wind activity per region. The information on the figure is based on 70 years of tornado data and 160 years of hurricane data collected by FEMA (FEMA 2021). Section 4.3.14 - Tornadoes Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-144 2022 Update Figure 4-44. Wind Zones in the United States Source: FEMA 2021 Note: The blue circle indicates the approximate location of Galveston County. Extent Damage from tornadoes can vary from minor damage that break tree limbs to massive damage demolishing homes in its path. The type of damage depends on the intensity, size, and duration of the tornado. The magnitude or severity of a tornado is categorized using the Enhanced Fujita Tornado Intensity Scale (EF Scale). This is the scale now used exclusively for determining tornado ratings by comparing wind speed and actual damage. Figure 4-45 illustrates the relationship between EF ratings, wind speed, and expected tornado damage. Galveston County can experience tornadoes ranking from EF0 to EF4. Section 4.3.14 - Tornadoes Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-145 2022 Update Figure 4-45. Explanation of EF-Scale Ratings Source: (NWS n.d.) The NWS issues tornado watches and warnings. A tornado watch is issued by the SPC in Norman, Oklahoma. They are issued when conditions are favorable for the development of tornadoes in and close to the watch area. Their size can vary depending on the weather situation. Watches are typically issued for a duration of four to eight hours. A tornado warning is issued by the local NWS office and will include where the tornado was located and what municipalities will be in its path. It is issued when a tornado is indicated by a radar or spotters. Warnings are issued for a duration of 30 minutes (NWS 2020). The current average lead time for tornado warnings is 13 minutes. Occasionally, tornadoes develop so rapidly, that little, if any, advance warning is possible (NOAA 2011). Worst-Case Scenario A worst-case scenario would be an EF3 tornado crossing through Galveston County with 3-second wind gusts ranging from 136 to 165 mph, causing severe damage. A tornado of this magnitude would tear off roofs and tear down walls, uproot trees, and lift vehicles off the ground. This could lead to downed utility poles, street signals, and debris on roadways, disrupting normal operations and impacting emergency response times. Critical and essential facilities could also be impacts, resulting in periods of service disruption to residents due to facility damages or lack of back-up power. Section 4.3.14 - Tornadoes Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-146 2022 Update Previous Occurrences and Losses Many sources have provided historical information regarding previous occurrences and losses associated with tornadoes events in Galveston County. According to NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database, Galveston County has been impacted by 94 tornado events that caused one fatality, 9 injuries, and more than $3.4 million in property damage. Table 4-80. Tornado Events in Galveston County, 1996-2020 Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1996 and 2020 Total Fatalities Total Injuries Total Property Damage ($) Total Crop Damage ($) Funnel Cloud 52 0 0 $0 $0 Tornado 42 0 9 $3,413,500 $0 TOTAL 94 0 9 $3,413,500 million $0 Source: NOAA-NCEI 2021 Between 1953 and 2021, the State of Texas was included in 15 tornado-related FEMA major disaster (DR) or emergency (EM) declarations. Of those declarations, Galveston County was not included in any of the declarations. For the 2022 update, tornado events were summarized from 2016 to 2021 (see Table 4-81). For events prior to 2016, refer to the 2017 Galveston County HMP. For detailed information on damages and impacts to each municipality, refer to Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes). Section 4.3.14 - Tornadoes Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-147 2022 Update Table 4-81 Tornado Events in Galveston County, 2016 to 2021 Date(s) of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number (if applicable) County Designated? Fatalities Injuries Damages Event Details* April 24, 2016 Tornado (EF0) N/A N/A 0 0 $100,000 An EF-0 tornado produced intermittent damage that began southwest of a Cabela’s parking lot then continued east across Interstate 45 and then on toward the NE across a Candlewood Suites hotel and an assisted living center. The tornado continued north-northeast through the Victory Lakes subdivision then to near Lynn Nursery along Pecan Orchard Road where they were some minor tree damage. Vehicles were damaged by swirling winds and debris around the Cabela’s and the Candlewood Suites sustained roof damage. In area neighborhoods, damage was mostly minor with numerous fences down and loose objects like basketball goals and trampolines knocked over. One storage shed in Victory Lakes was picked up and thrown approximately 300 yards. July 17, 2016 Tornado (EF0) N/A N/A 0 0 0 A waterspout moved onshore and became a weak tornado just east of the Galveston Fishing Pier at 61st Street. The tornado moved across Seawall Boulevard and dissipated. There was no damage. July 20, 2016 Funnel Cloud N/A N/A - - - A League City area funnel cloud lasted around fifteen minutes. February 17, 2017 Funnel Cloud N/A N/A - - - A funnel cloud that was sighted over the city became a waterspout when it moved into Galveston Bay. May 22, 2017 Tornado (EF0) N/A N/A 0 0 $20,000 An EF0 tornado damaged a Holiday Inn along Termini-San Luis Pass Road. Damage included blown out windows and lattice damage. Witnesses indicated this was a waterspout that moved onshore. August 18, 2017 Funnel Cloud N/A N/A - - - A funnel cloud was observed near Harborside Drive on Galveston Island. August 18, 2017 Funnel Cloud N/A N/A - - - A second funnel cloud was observed near Harborside Drive on Galveston Island. August 25, 2017 Tornado (EF0) N/A N/A 0 0 $500 Funnel cloud sighting with fence damage near Ferry Road. August 27, 2017 Tornado (EF0) N/A N/A 0 0 $200,000 Trees down, minor roof damage in Bacliff. Fences down. October 20, 2017 Tornado (EF0) N/A N/A 0 0 $50,000 An EF0 tornado downed trees and branches along either side of Benson's Bayou. Damage included home and vehicle windows along with residential fences. May 4, 2019 Tornado (EF0) N/A N/A 0 0 $10,000 Brief touchdown. Peeled off tin roof, damaged manufactured home and storage shed. May 27, 2020 Funnel Cloud N/A N/A - - - A funnel cloud was sighted. Section 4.3.14 - Tornadoes Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-148 2022 Update Date(s) of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number (if applicable) County Designated? Fatalities Injuries Damages Event Details* May 29, 2020 Funnel Cloud N/A N/A - - - A funnel cloud was observed over the Bolivar Peninsula. Source(s): FEMA 2021; NOAA-NCEI 2021; Galveston County HMP 2017 * Many sources were consulted to provide an update of previous occurrences and losses; event details and loss/impact information may vary and has been summarized in the above table - Not reported/not available FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency HMP Hazard Mitigation Plan NCEI National Centers for Environmental Information Section 4.3.14 - Tornadoes Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-149 2022 Update Climate Change Projections The climate of Texas is changing. Most of the State has warmed between one half and one degree Fahrenheit in the past century. In the eastern two-thirds of the State, average annual rainfall is increasing; however, the soil is becoming drier. Rainstorms are more intense, and floods are becoming more severe. In the coming decades, storms are likely to become more severe in Texas (EPA 2016). An increase in storms will produce more wind events and may increase tornado activity. However, the link between tornadoes and climate change is unclear (Center for Climate and Energy Solutions n.d.). Probability of Future Occurrences Table 4-82 summarizes data regarding the probability of occurrences of tornado events in Galveston County based on the historic record. The information used to calculate the probability of o ccurrences is based on the 2017 Galveston County HMP, the NOAA-NCEI storm events database, and FEMA. Table 4-82. Probability of Future Occurrence of Tornado Events Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1996 and 2021 % chance of occurrence in any given year Funnel Cloud 52 100% Tornado (all magnitudes) 42 100% TOTAL 94 100% Source: NOAA-NCEI 2021; Galveston County HMP 2017, FEMA Note: Disaster occurrences include federally declared disasters since the 1950 Federal Disaster Relief Act, and selected tornado events since 1968. Due to limitations in data, not all tornado events occurring between 1954 and 1996 are accounted for in the tally of occurrences. As a result, the number of hazard occurrences is underestimated. Galveston County is expected to continue experiencing the direct and indirect impacts of tornadoes each year. The County experienced ninety-four tornado and funnel cloud incidents in 24 years, giving the County a 100% chance of being impacted by a tornado of any magnitude in any given year. Based on historical records and input from the Steering Committee, the probability of occurrence for tornadoes in Galveston County is considered frequent (100% chance occurring; occurs multiple times a year). Refer to Section 4.4 for additional information on the hazard ranking methodology and probability criteria. Vulnerability Assessment To understand risk, a community must evaluate assets exposed to and vulnerable to the identified hazard. The entirety of Galveston County is exposed and vulnerable to the tornado hazard; therefore, all assets within the County (population, structures, critical facilities, and lifelines), as described in Section 3 (County Profile), are potentially vulnerable to a thunderstorm event. The following text evaluates and estimates the potential impact of the tornado hazard in the County. Impact on Life, Health and Safety Impacts of a tornado on life, health, and safety depend on several factors, including severity of the event and whether adequate warning time was provided to residents. All residents in Galveston County are exposed to the tornado hazard. Residents impacted by tornadoes may be displaced or require temporary to long-term sheltering. In addition, downed trees, damaged buildings, and debris carried by winds associated with tornadoes can lead to injury or loss of life. Similar to other natural hazards, socially vulnerable populations are most susceptible, based on a number of factors including their physical and financial ability to react or respond during a hazard and locations and construction quality of their housing. Economically disadvantaged populations are more vulnerable because Section 4.3.14 - Tornadoes Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-150 2022 Update they are likely to evaluate their risk and make decisions based on the major economic impact on their family and may not have funds to evacuate. The population over the age of 65 is also more vulnerable and, physically, they may have more difficulty evacuating. The elderly are considered most vulnerable because they require extra time or outside assistance during evacuations and are more likely to seek or need medical attention that may not be available due to isolation during a storm event. Section 3 (County Profile) presents the statistical information regarding these populations in the County. Impact on General Building Stock The entire County’s building stock is exposed to the tornado hazard. Damage to buildings depends on several factors, including wind speed, storm duration, path of the storm track or tornado, and distance from the tornado funnel. Manufactured housing (i.e. mobiles homes) is particularly vulnerable to high winds and tornadoes. The U.S. Census Bureau defines manufactured homes as “movable dwellings, 8 feet or wider and 40 feet or more long, design to be towed on its own chassis, with transportation gear integral to the unit when it leaves the factory, and without need of a permanent foundation (Census, 2010).” They can include multi-wides and expandable manufactured homes but exclude travel trailers, motor homes, and modular housing. Due to their light-weight and often unanchored design, manufactured housing is extremely vulnerable to high winds and will generally sustain the most damage. Impact on Critical Facilities Utility infrastructure could suffer damage from tornadoes associated with falling tree limbs or other debris, resulting in the loss of power or other utility service. Loss of service can impact residents, critical facilities, and business operations alike. Interruptions in heating or cooling utilities can affect populations, such the young and elderly, who are particularly vulnerable to temperature-related health impacts. Loss of power can impact other public utilities, including potable water, wastewater treatment, and communications. In addition to public water services, property owners with private wells might not have access to potable water until power is restored. Lack of power to emergency facilities, including police, fire, EMS, and hospitals, will inhibit a community’s ability to effective respond to an event and maintain the safety of its citizens. Impact on Economy Tornados also impact the economy, including loss of business function (e.g., tourism, recreation), damage to inventory, relocation costs, and wage loss and rental loss due to repair/replacement of buildings. Impacts on transportation lifelines affect both short-term (e.g., evacuation activities) and long-term (e.g., day-to-day commuting and goods transport) transportation needs. Utility infrastructure (power lines, gas lines, electrical systems) could sustain damage, and impacts could result in loss of power, which can affect business operations and provision of heating or cooling to the population. Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that effect vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensure establishment of appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development. • Projected changes in population. • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change. Section 4.3.15 - Tsunami Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-151 2022 Update Projected Development Any areas of growth could be potentially impacted by the tornado hazard because the entire County is exposed and vulnerable. Residential development, specifically manufactured homes, may be considered more vulnerable to the tornado hazard. Projected Changes in Population The County has experienced an increase in population between the 2010 Census (291,309) and the estimated 2015-2019 American Community Survey estimated population of 350,682. The population of the County is expected to increase over the next few years. The increase in population will expose more people to the tornado hazard. Climate Change The climate of Texas is changing. Most of the State has warmed between one half and one degree Fahrenheit in the past century. In the eastern two-thirds of the State, average annual rainfall is increasing; however, the soil is becoming drier. Rainstorms are more intense, and floods are becoming more severe. In the coming decades, storms are likely to become more severe in Texas (EPA 2016). An increase in storms will produce more wind events and may increase tornado activity. Additionally, an increase in temperature will provide more energy to produce storms that generate tornadoes (Climate Central 2018). With an increased likelihood of strong winds and tornado events, all of the County’s assets will experience additional risk for losses as a result of extreme wind events. Changes in Vulnerability Since the 2017 HMP The County’s population increased since the last plan, increasing the number of people vulnerable during a tornado. Therefore, the entire County remains vulnerable to tornado events. 4.3.15 Tsunami The following section provides the hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the tsunami hazard for Galveston County. Profile Hazard Description A tsunami is a series of high-energy waves that radiate outward like pond ripples from an area where a generating event occurs, arriving at shorelines over an extended period. Tsunamis can be induced by earthquakes, landslides, and submarine volcanic explosions. Tsunamis are typically classified as local or distant, depending on the location of their source in comparison to where waves occur: • The waves nearest to the generating source represent a local tsunami. Such events have minimal warning time, leaving few options except to run to high ground after a strong, prolonged local earthquake. Damage from the tsunami adds to damage from the triggering earthquake due to ground shaking, surface faulting, liquefaction, and landslides. • The waves far from the generating source represent a distant tsunami. Distant tsunamis may travel for hours before striking a coastline, giving a community a chance to implement evacuation plans if a warning is received. In the open ocean, a tsunami may be only a few inches or feet high, but it can travel with speeds approaching 600 miles per hour. As a tsunami enters the shoaling waters near a coastline, its speed diminishes, its wavelength decreases, and its height increases greatly. At the shoreline, tsunamis may take the form of a fast-rising tide, a cresting wave, or a bore (a large, turbulent wall-like wave). The bore phenomenon resembles a step-like change SECTION 4.3.15: Tsunami Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-152 2022 Update in the water level that advances rapidly (from 10 to 60 miles per hour). The first wave is usually followed by several larger and more destructive waves. The configuration of the coastline, the shape of the ocean floor, and the characteristics of advancing waves play important roles in the destructiveness of the waves. Bays, sounds, inlets, rivers, streams, offshore canyons, islands, and flood control channels may alter the level of damage. Offshore canyons can focus tsunami wave energy, and islands can filter the energy. A tsunami wave entering a flood control channel could reach a mile or more inland, especially if it enters at high tide. The orientation of the coastline determines whether the waves strike head-on or are refracted from other parts of the coastline. A wave may be small at one point and much larger at others. The inundation area for a tsunami event is often described as runup as illustrated in Figure 4-46. Figure 4-46 Runup Distance and Height in Relation to the Datum and Shoreline Source: (UNESCO 2007) Location Galveston County is not at a high risk from tsunami due to the local rarity of the geologic events that most often generate these dangerous waves. However, according to the Regional Assessment of Tsunami Potential in the Gulf of Mexico (USGS 2009), there is sufficient evidence to consider submarine landslides in the Gulf of Mexico as a present‐day tsunami hazard, as there are clear observations of large landslides along the continental margin of the Gulf. In this study hydrodynamic modeling of potential maximum tsunamis from landslide sources were conducted for the East Breaks (EB) slide (south Texas) and for hypothetical slides along the Florida/Campeche margin. Wave propagation yielded potential maximum tsunami run‐up of approximately 4 meters or 13 feet, relative to mean sea level (Galveston County 2017). All of coastal Galveston County is exposed and vulnerable to the potential impacts of tsunamis. Extent A tsunami’s size and speed, as well as the coastal area’s form and depth, affect the impact of the tsunami. At some locations, the advancing turbulent wave front will be the most destructive part of the tsunami wave. In other situations, the greatest damage will be caused by the outflow of water back to the sea between crests, SECTION 4.3.15: Tsunami Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-153 2022 Update sweeping away items on the surface and undermining roads, buildings, bulkheads, and other structures. This outflow action can carry enormous amounts of highly damaging debris, resulting in further destruction. Ships and boats, unless moved away from shore, may be forced against breakwaters, wharves, and other craft, or be washed ashore and left grounded after the withdrawal of the seawater (National Tsunami Warning Center 2021). Worst-Case Scenario While the probability of a tsunami is very low, a worst-case scenario would be a locally generated tsunami with little warning time to evacuate. If such an event were to occur, low-lying coastal properties would be inundated and the potential for injury or death would be significant, similar to a hurricane storm surge event. Previous Occurrences and Losses According to available records from the State of Texas 2018 HMP Update and FEMA, there have been no reported tsunami incidents recorded for Galveston County, however a verified tsunami event exists in the NGDC database. Resulting from an aftershock of an earthquake near Puerto Rico on October 11, 1918, a small wave was recorded at the Galveston, Texas tide gage on October 24, 1918. The magnitude of the tsunami runup was not reported (NRC n.d.). Climate Change Projections The impacts of global climate change on tsunami probability are unknown. Some scientists say that melting glaciers could induce tectonic activity, inducing earthquakes. Other scientists have indicated that underwater avalanches (also caused by melting glaciers), may also result in tsunamis. Even if climate change does not increase the frequency with which tsunamis occur, it may result in more destructive waves. As sea levels continue to rise, tsunami inundation areas would likely reach further into communities than current mapping indicates. Probability of Future Occurrences An analysis of historical data indicates a very low risk for future occurrences of a tsunami for Galveston County. The probability of the future occurrence of a tsunami is unlikely, with the last definite occurrence in 1918, more than 100 years ago. Based on the one historical occurrence, the probability of a future event is considered low (not likely to occur in 100 years). Refer to Section 4.4 for additional information on the hazard ranking methodology and probability criteria. Vulnerability Assessment To understand risk, a community must evaluate assets exposed to and vulnerable to the identified hazard. Tsunami-related vulnerability data was generated using a GIS analysis for the tsunami hazard. A probabilistic assessment was conducted for a 322-foot buffer from evacuation routes to analyze the tsunami hazard and provide a range of loss estimates. Impact on Life, Health and Safety The impact of a tsunami on life, health and safety is dependent upon several factors including the severity of the event and whether or not adequate warning time was provided to residents. The populations in Galveston County that would be most exposed to this type of hazard are those along beaches and low lying coastal areas. The Cities of Hitchcock, Kemah, La Marque, and Santa Fe are considered at risk, as with the highest percentage of their populations exposed to the tsunami hazard area (Table 4-83). Tsunamis can cause great loss of life and property damage where they come ashore, and most deaths are the result of drowning. Associated risks include water pollution, damaged gas lines, and flooding. SECTION 4.3.15: Tsunami Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-154 2022 Update Table 4-83. Population Located within the Tsunami Hazard Area Jurisdiction Total Population (American Community Survey 2015- 2019) Estimated Population Located Within the Tsunami Hazard Area Number of People Within 322 Feet of Tsunami Evacuation Route Percent of Total Bayou Vista (C) 1,763 11 0.6% Clear Lake Shores (C) 1,258 0 0.0% Dickinson (C) 20,847 16 0.1% Friendswood (C) 41,213 0 0.0% Hitchcock (C) 7,301 583 8.0% Jamaica Beach (C) 1,078 0 0.0% Kemah (C) 1,807 23 1.3% La Marque (C) 18,030 241 1.3% League City (C) 114,392 3 0.0% Santa Fe (C) 12,735 247 1.9% Tiki Island (V) 1,106 0 0.0% Galveston County (Total) 350,682 1,255 0.4% Source: Galveston County GIS 2021, American Community Survey 2019 (5-year estimates 2015-2019) Note (1): The Tsunami hazard area it (evacuation areas plus high tide – 300 ft plus 22 ft). The tidal buffer area was 322 ft from the mapped shoreline Note (2): The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Impact on General Building Stock Similar to the population exposed, for the purposes of this planning effort, all general building stock, critical facilities, and infrastructure are considered vulnerable to the tsunami hazard. However, the areas with the highest vulnerability are those areas that are low-lying along the coastline located of the County, including the Cities of Hitchcock, Kemah, La Marque, and Santa Fe. The impact of the waves and the scouring associated with debris that may be carried in the water could be very damaging to structures located in the tsunami’s path. Structures that would be most vulnerable are those located in the front line of tsunami impact and those that are structurally unsound. Roads are the primary resource for evacuation to higher ground before and during the course of a tsunami event. Flooding caused by a tsunami will greatly impact this important component in the management of tsunami related emergencies. Bridges exposed to tsunami events can be extremely vulnerable due to the forces transmitted by the wave run up and by the impact of debris carried by the wave action. The forces of tsunami waves can also impact above ground utilities by knocking down power lines and radio/cellular communication towers. Power generation facilities can be severely impacted by both the velocity impact of the wave action and the inundation of floodwaters (Humboldt County Hazard Mitigation Plan 2008). Tsunamis may induce secondary hazards such as water quality and supply concerns, and public health concerns. Impacts on the economy are difficult to quantify. As discussed above, losses include but are not limited to general building stock damages, business interruption/closure, impacts to tourism and tax base to Galveston County. Table 4-84 provides a summary of the building stock exposed to the tsunami hazard area in the County. The City of Hitchcock’s building stock is most vulnerable to the tsunami hazard, as it has almost 19% of its building stock located in the tsunami hazard area. However, most municipalities in the County could experience secondary impacts from a tsunami. SECTION 4.3.15: Tsunami Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-155 2022 Update Table 4-84. Building Stock Located within the Tsunami Hazard Area Jurisdiction Total Number of Buildings Total Replacement Cost Value (RCV) Estimated Building Stock Located in the Tsunami Hazard Area Number of Buildings Located Within 322 Feet of Tsunami Evacuation Route Percent of Total Total RCV of Buildings Within 322 Feet of Tsunami Evacuation Route Percent of Total Bayou Vista (C) 1,365 $445,354,087.33 30 2.2% $27,811,590 6.2% Clear Lake Shores (C) 1,155 $904,562,368.66 1 0.1% $203,406 0.0% Dickinson (C) 10,351 $6,601,710,645.63 25 0.2% $50,113,058 0.8% Friendswood (C) 14,891 $10,815,456,384.12 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Hitchcock (C) 5,452 $4,592,036,651.86 528 9.7% $867,463,601 18.9% Jamaica Beach (C) 1,291 $458,205,838.82 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Kemah (C) 1,634 $2,631,702,105.60 70 4.3% $241,918,493 9.2% La Marque (C) 10,749 $7,927,292,522.28 192 1.8% $209,195,400 2.6% League City (C) 46,742 $31,237,974,594.10 33 0.1% $197,929,274 0.6% Santa Fe (C) 7,942 $4,831,628,162.13 335 4.2% $499,193,162 10.3% Tiki Island (V) 868 $365,209,145.44 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Galveston County (Total) 209,947 $166,321,604,688.46 1,722 0.8% $3,204,780,207 1.9% Source: Galveston County GIS 2021, Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing 2018; RS Means 2021 Note (1): The Tsunami hazard area it (evacuation areas plus high tide – 300 ft plus 22 ft). The tidal buffer area was 322 ft from the mapped shoreline Note (2): The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Impact on Critical Facilities Utility infrastructure could suffer damage to high waves associated with tsunamis, resulting in the loss of power or other utility service. Loss of service can impact residents, critical facilities, and business operations alike. Interruptions in heating or cooling utilities can affect populations, such the young and elderly, who are particularly vulnerable to temperature-related health impacts. Loss of power can impact other public utilities, including potable water, wastewater treatment, and communications. In addition to public water services, property owners with private wells might not have access to potable water until power is restored. Lack of power to emergency facilities, including police, fire, EMS, and hospitals, will inhibit a community’s ability to effective respond to an event and maintain the safety of its citizens. Furthermore, tsunamis can restrict transportation routes, preventing residents from evacuating or emergency equipment from helping those in need. According to Table 4-85, there are 234 lifelines in the County located within the 322-foot tsunami evacuation route. Table 4-85. Critical Facilities Located within the Tsunami Hazard Area FEMA Lifeline Category Number of Lifelines Number of Lifelines Located Within 322 Feet of Tsunami Evacuation Route Communications 111 13 Energy 598 4 Food, Water, Shelter 162 6 Hazardous Materials 68 1 Health and Medical 91 4 Safety and Security 405 13 Transportation 882 193 Galveston County (Total) 2,317 234 SECTION 4.3.15: Tsunami Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-156 2022 Update Source: Galveston County GIS 2021 (322 buffer from evacuation routes) Note: The Tsunami hazard area it (evacuation areas plus high tide – 300 ft plus 22 ft). The tidal buffer area was 322 ft from the mapped shoreline Impact on the Economy Tsunamis impact the economy; with impacts including loss of business function, damage to inventory, relocation costs, wage loss, and rental loss due to the repair or replacement of buildings. While a tsunami is expected to negatively impact infrastructure, it is not a significant amount, only 1.9% of the replacement cost value of the building stock. It is expected that the loss of life from a tsunami event would be much more damaging. Table 4-86. Estimated Critical Facilities and Lifelines within 322 Feet of Tsunami Evacuation Route Jurisdiction Total CFs Located in Jurisdiction Total Lifelines Located in Jurisdiction Number of Critical Facilities and Lifeline Facilities Located Within 322 Feet of Tsunamic Evacuation Route Critical Facilities Percent of Total Critical Facilities Lifelines Percent of Total Lifelines Bayou Vista (C) 5 5 5 100.0% 5 100.0% Clear Lake Shores (C) 24 24 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Dickinson (C) 91 83 9 9.9% 9 10.8% Friendswood (C) 96 82 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Hitchcock (C) 214 212 38 17.8% 36 17.0% Jamaica Beach (C) 11 11 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Kemah (C) 15 14 6 40.0% 6 42.9% La Marque (C) 121 107 29 24.0% 29 27.1% League City (C) 321 283 29 9.0% 29 10.2% Santa Fe (C) 135 128 42 31.1% 41 32.0% Tiki Island (V) 7 7 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Galveston County (Total) 2,437 2,317 237 9.7% 234 10.1% Source: Galveston County GIS 2021, Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing 2018; RS Means 2021 Note (1): The Tsunami hazard area it (evacuation areas plus high tide – 300 ft plus 22 ft). The tidal buffer area was 322 ft from the mapped shoreline Note (2): The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Impact on the Environment All waterways and beaches would be exposed to the effects of a tsunami; inundation of water and introduction of foreign debris could be hazardous to the environment. All wildlife inhabiting the area also is exposed. Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that effect vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensure establishment of appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development. • Projected changes in population. • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change. SECTION 4.3.16: Utility Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-157 2022 Update Projected Development Any areas of growth could be potentially impacted by the tsunami hazard because the entire County is exposed and vulnerable; however, due to increased standards and codes, new development can be less vulnerable to the hazard compared with the aging building stock in the County. Projected Changes in Population The County has experienced an increase in population between the 2010 Census (291,309) and the estimated 2015-2019 American Community Survey estimated population of 350,682. The population of the County is expected to increase over the next few years. The increase in population will expose more people to the tsunami hazard. Climate Change The impacts of global climate change on tsunami probability are unknown. Some scientists say that melting glaciers could induce tectonic activity, inducing earthquakes. Other scientists have indicated that underwater avalanches (also caused by melting glaciers), may also result in tsunamis. Even if climate change does not increase the frequency with which tsunamis occur, it may result in more destructive waves. As sea levels continue to rise, tsunami inundation areas would likely reach further into communities than current mapping indicates. Change of Vulnerability Since the 2017 HMP Galveston County continues to be vulnerable to tsunamis. Tsunami models on building stock were not run for the 2017 HMP; therefore, estimated losses were not populated. Furthermore, the population of the County has increased, therefore exposing more people the hazard. 4.3.16 Utility Failure The following section provides the hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the utility failure hazard for Galveston County. Profile Hazard Description Power failure is defined as any interruption or loss of electrical service caused by disruption of power transmission caused by accident, sabotage, natural hazards, or equipment failure (also referred to as a loss of power or power outage). A significant power failure is defined as any incident of a long duration, which would require the involvement of the local and/or state emergency management organizations to coordinate provision of food, water, heating, cooling, and shelter. Widespread power outages can occur without warning or as a result of a natural disaster. Generally warning times will be short in the case of technological failure, such as a fire at a sub-station, traffic accident, human error, or terrorist attack. In cases where a power failure is caused by natural hazards, greater warning time is possible. For example, high wind events such as tornados and hurricanes often cause widespread power failure and are often forecasted before they affect a community. Additionally, severe winter weather conditions such as ice storms, blizzards, and snowstorms often cause power failure. Incidents such as these often have plenty of warning time, thus power response crews can stage resources to prepare for power failure. Power failures can lead to secondary hazards as well, leading to negative impacts on the health and safety of residents. Section 4.3.16: Utility Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-158 2022 Update • During periods of extreme heat or extreme cold, vulnerable populations such as the elderly and medically frail can be affected and are susceptible to hypothermia or heat stroke. Additionally, power failure can lead to food spoilage, which has negative impacts on public health. • Residents who rely on electric medical devices such as home oxygen machines, medication nebulizers, home dialysis, infusion pumps, and electric wheelchairs may face life-threatening situations if power failure extends beyond the battery backup timeframe of their device (Huff 2021). • Another secondary hazard that can result from power failure is a loss of communications capability by first responders, which may in turn have negative impacts on public safety. Power outages can also lead to instances of civil disturbance, including looting. • Power interruptions at chemical handling plants are of particular concern because of the potential for a chemical spill during restart (EPA 2001). Chemical spills in turn can have significant health and environmental impacts. • Wastewater and potable water utility interruption may occur as a result of a power failure. These critical utilities are essential to community continuity and recovery. Their interruption of service may have cascading economic and environmental impacts. Lack of power can prevent fuel pumps from operating and lead to fuel shortages. • Power failure may also lead to an increase in traffic accidents. Traffic accidents may increase because of the lack of traffic control devices such as stoplights and railroad crossing advisory signals. Power outages lasting a long duration will force law enforcement officials to man traffic control points to prevent accidents. Location Power failures in Galveston County are usually localized and are usually the result of a natural hazard event involving high winds. Power failure is particularly problematic for homes that are cooled or heated with electricity. Widespread power outages during the summer and winter months can directly impact vulnerable populations such as the elderly and medically frail. According to the 2019 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 51.6 percent of homes across Galveston County are heated with electricity. Wastewater treatment for most municipalities is provided by municipal or private treatment facilities. Many areas of Galveston County rely on on-site sewage facilities (septic systems) since they do not have access to municipal sewer systems. Galveston County is served by a variety of communications systems. In addition to land line, cellular, and broadband communications systems, Galveston County has an extensive radio communications network that is utilized by emergency services agencies, hospitals, law enforcement, public works, transportation, and other supporting organizations. The most common sources of potable water within Galveston County are municipal and private sources. According to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality Water Well Report Viewer, Galveston County has 175 plotted and non-plotted water well reports. Municipal water supplies are provided by municipal utility districts. Extent The extent and severity of a power outage depends on the cause, location, duration, and time of year. It can range from a small, localized event to a countywide power outage. Impacts from an outage can be significant to the county and its residents. Power failures often result from damage to or electrical hazards within an electric power system. System components include power generation plants, substations, circuits, switches, transformers, power lines, and Section 4.3.16: Utility Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-159 2022 Update power poles. Due to the varied nature of power outage causes ranging from vehicle accidents to severe weather, utility interruptions can happen at any time. Power failures lead to the inability to use electric-powered equipment, such as: lighting; heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) and necessary equipment; communication equipment (telephones, computers, etc.); fire and security systems; small appliances such as refrigerators, sterilizers, etc.; and medical equipment. This all can lead to food spoilage, loss of heating and cooling, basement flooding due to sump pump failure, and loss of water due to well pump failure. Worst-Case Scenario A wide-spread utility failure could impact the entire population of Galveston County. The vulnerable populations (over 65 and under 5, below poverty threshold) and those who rely on power for home medical devices would be more susceptible to utility failures. Another event like the snow/cold event of February 2021 would present a worst-case scenario with power outages lasting multiple days combined with temperatures dropping to near-freezing levels. Previous Occurrences Many sources provided power outage information regarding previous occurrences and losses associated with events that caused outages throughout Galveston County. With so many sources reviewed for the purpose of this HMP, loss and impact information for many events could vary depending on the source. Therefore, the accuracy of monetary figures discussed is based only on the available information identified during research for this HMP. Between 1954 and 2021, FEMA included the State of Texas in one disaster declaration (DR) that included widespread power outages. For this plan update, power outage events were summarized from 2013 to 2021. Table 4-87 includes power outage events that occurred between 2013 and 2020. With documentation for Texas and Galveston County being so extensive, not all sources have been identified or researched. Therefore, Table 4-87 may not include all events that have occurred throughout the County. Table 4-87 Power Failure Events in Galveston County, 2013 to 2021 Date(s) of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number (if applicable) County Designated? Event Details* May 27, 2014 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A Severe thunderstorm winds blew down a utility pole and power lines in Galveston. Power poles were snapped at Crenshaw Elementary School. February 14, 2017 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A Six power poles were blown down near the intersection of Highway 87 and Helen Blvd. March 29, 2018 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A A power pole was downed near an apartment complex on 21st Street. May 9, 2019 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A Trees and power lines downed along Highway 96 just west of Highway 3. June 29, 2019 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A A large area of the Bolivar Peninsula was without power after strong thunderstorm wind gusts were observed. February 15-16, 2021 Cold/Wind Chill DR-4586 Yes Very cold air and gusty winds overspread SE Texas behind an Arctic front with wind chill indices from near zero to single digits for much the period from Sunday night to Tuesday morning. Increased power demand, wind and ice led to widespread power outages. Bursting pipes caused many to be without water as well. September 13, 2021 Tropical Storm N/A N/A Hurricane Nicholas produced several hours of strong tropical storm force sustained winds and gusts. There were numerous power outages and minor to moderate damage to some structures and roofs. The storm also produced minor storm surge flooding. Section 4.3.16: Utility Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-160 2022 Update Sources: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) 2021; FEMA 2021 FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency K Thousand ($) N/A Not applicable Climate Change Projections The climate of Texas is changing. Most of the State has warmed between one half and one degree Fahrenheit in the past century. Storms are more intense, and floods are becoming more severe. In the coming decades, storms, including those causing utility failures, are likely to become more severe in Texas (EPA 2016). Probability of Future Occurrences While the probability of future power failure incidents in Galveston County is difficult to predict, historical records indicate that significant power failures have occurred as a result of high winds and winter weather. Data were not readily available on the frequency of smaller power outages across the county; however, it is reasonable to assume that power failure events of shorter duration will continue to occur in the future. In addition, future changes in climate may also impact the frequency and probability of future power failure occurrences. Table 4-88 summarizes data regarding the probability of occurrences of utility failure events in Galveston County based on the historic record. The information used to calculate the probability of occurrences is based on the NOAA-NCEI Storm Events Database and FEMA. Table 4-88. Probability of Future Occurrence of Utility Failure Events Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1996 and 2021 % chance of occurrence in any given year Utility Failure 34 100% Source: NOAA-NCEI 2021; FEMA 2021 Note: Disaster occurrences include federally declared disasters since the 1950 Federal Disaster Relief Act, and selected utility failure events since 1968. Due to limitations in data, not all utility failure events occurring between 1954 and 1996 are accounted for in the tally of occurrences. As a result, the number of hazard occurrences is underestimated. Galveston County is expected to continue experiencing the direct and indirect impacts of utility failures. Thirty- four recorded utility failure events in twenty-five years were recorded in Galveston County, giving the County a 100% chance of being impacted by a utility failure in any given year. Based on historical records and input from the Steering Committee, the probability of occurrence for utility failure events in the County is considered frequent (100% chance occurring; occurs multiple times a year). Refer to Section 4.4 for additional information on the hazard ranking methodology and probability criteria. Vulnerability Assessment To understand risk, a community must evaluate assets exposed to and vulnerable to the identified hazard. The entirety of Galveston County is exposed and vulnerable to the utility failure hazard; therefore, all assets within the County (population, structures, critical facilities, and lifelines), as described in Section 3 (County Profile), are potentially vulnerable to a utility failure event. The following text evaluates and estimates the potential impact of the utility failure hazard in the County. Impact on Life, Health and Safety The entire population of Galveston County is exposed to impacts from utility failures. However, vulnerable populations, including the elderly, low income, and people with life -threatening illnesses are more susceptible to negative impacts from utility failures. Power outages can be life threatening to those dependent on electricity for life support. The population over the age of 65 (46,103) are most likely to rely on electricity for life support. Section 4.3.16: Utility Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-161 2022 Update Power outages can be especially harmful to life, health, and safety, during winter and summer months, when people rely on electricity to mitigate the harmful effects of extreme temperatures such as frostbite, hypothermia, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke. Power outages can also contribute to traffic accidents when streetlights and traffic signals are inoperable. Power outages can also impact residents’ access to water, as domestic wells require power to operate. Domestic wells are relatively common in Galveston County, with about 20-30 wells per square kilometer (USGS 2019). This can further exacerbate the impacts on health of extreme temperature events, where drinking water is essential in preventing heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Impact on General Building Stock All of the building stock in the County is exposed to the utility failure hazard. Refer to Section 3 (County Profile) which summarizes the building inventory in Galveston County. Impacts sustained from utility interruption are likely to be secondary impacts. Should potable water distribution be reduced or not available, then structures could be at increased risk for structural fire since current fire suppression is dependent accessing water supply from hydrants. Utility failure does not impact directly impact buildings, but it does impact business function. Utility failure can indirectly impact the building stock when coupled with extreme temperature events, leading to problems such as frozen and burst pipes. Impact on Critical Facilities All critical facilities in the County are exposed to the utility failure hazard. It is essential that critical facilities remain operational during natural hazard events, as many people rely on them to mitigate the effects of hazard events. Loss of power can have serious impacts on the health and welfare of residents, continuity of business, and the ability of public safety agencies to respond to emergencies. Interruption of utility gas or water distribution could also reduce the effectiveness of critical facilities to operate at full capacity. Backup power is recommended for critical facilities and infrastructure. Impact on the Economy During a utility interruption event, the County may experience losses because of an interruption of critical services. Further, increased costs such as providing shelters, and costs related to cooling and heating centers may be incurred. Extended power outages will require officials to shelter victims who require heat and power for activities of daily living. A prolonged power failure in Galveston County may impact the County’s economy. With major roadways, businesses, and tourist destinations, any disruption would mean that many workers, residents, and travelers would not be able to go where needed. Power interruptions can cause economic impacts stemming from lost income, spoiled food and other goods, costs to the owners/operators of the utility facilities, and costs to government and community service groups. FEMA’s benefit-cost analysis methodology measures the loss of electrical service on a per-person-per-day-of- lost-service basis for the service area affected. Interruption of utility gas or potable water distribution could also cause significant economic impacts such as: additional costs for bringing in water tenders to maintain fire suppression capabilities; opening additional warming centers should electric and gas utility be interrupted to residential areas; and distribution of potable water for public consumption. There could be significant costs associated with reimbursing fire departments from other counties within Texas to travel, staff, and maintain water tenders within Galveston County during the duration of a water outage event. Section 4.3.16: Utility Failure Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-162 2022 Update Potential modeling of economic impacts from utility interruption would be calculating interruption of service costs which is derived from a standard value per person per day multiplied out by the number of customers served. This would help to provide an estimate of the impact of the interrupted utility service but may not be representative of the complete economic impact of a prolonged utility interruption. The FEMA BCA Toolkit version 5.3 uses the following standard values per person per day: • Electric - $148.00 • Potable water - $105.00 • Wastewater - $49.00 Impact on the Environment Utility failure is not known to directly impact the environment. However, secondary impacts may occur when power is lost at sewage pump stations and treatment plants. Overflows can occur which contaminate the local environment and groundwater supply. When power failures occur at mechanized flood control infrastructure, the likelihood of flood damage to the natural environment increases, including streambed scour and topsoil erosion. Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that effect vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensure establishment of appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development. • Projected changes in population. • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change. Projected Development Understanding future changes that impact vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensuring that appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures are in place. With more development, more buildings and people will be exposed to the utility failure hazard. Projected Changes in Population The County experienced an increase in population between the 2010 Census (291,309) and the estimated 2015- 2019 American Community Survey estimated population of 350,682. The population of the County is expected to increase over the next few years. The increase in population will expose more people to the utility failure hazard. Climate Change Due to climate change, storms such as hurricanes, and thunderstorms are becoming more intense (EPA 2016). Therefore, the frequency and intensity of utility failures will most likely increase. Furthermore, increasing temperatures and frequencies of droughts are likely to exacerbate the effects of utility failures. Lastly, as temperatures rise and energy demands thus also increase, increasing the likelihood of utility failure due to brown- outs. Change of Vulnerability Since the 2017 HMP Utility failure was not included as a hazard in the 2017 HMP. However, it was discussed in the vulnerability assessments of natural events that cause utility failures. For the 2022 Update, the Planning Partnership agreed to have a standalone profile focusing on utility failures in the County. Section 4.3.17: Wildfire Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-163 2022 Update 4.3.17 Wildfire The following section provides the hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the wildfire hazard for Galveston County. Profile Hazard Description Wildland fire is defined as any fire burning wildland vegetation‐fuels; it includes prescribed fire, wildland fire use, and wildfire. Prescribed fires are planned fires started by land managers to accomplish specific natural resource objectives. Fires that occur from natural causes, such as lightning, that are then used to achieve management purposes under carefully controlled conditions with minimal suppression costs are known as wildland fire use (WFU). Wildfires are unwanted and unplanned fires that result from natural ignition, unauthorized human-caused fire, escaped WFU, or escaped prescribed fire. A wildland‐urban interface (WUI) fire is a wildfire occurring in the wildland urban interface. The WUI is described as the area where structures and other human improvements meet and intermingle with undeveloped wildland or vegetative fuels. Population growth within the WUI substantially increases the risk from wildfire. Prescribed burning, also known as controlled burning, is the deliberate use of fire under specified and controlled conditions. Prescribed burning is used by forest management professionals and individual landowners to accomplish one or more of the following tasks: • Fuel Reduction – The reduction of accumulated grass, weeds, pine needles, and hardwood leaves. This type of vegetation can encourage wildfires in young stands and hinder regeneration of older stands. • Hardwood Control – Prevents hardwood trees from competing with pines for nutrients and moisture; impeding visibility and access through the stands; and interfering with natural regeneration in areas better suited for growing pines. The wildland interface problem has grown due to increases in population, urban expansion, land management decisions, parks, greenbelts and the ever‐present desire to intermingle with nature (Galveston County 2017). Location Wildfires can be a potentially damaging outgrowth of drought. While they are not confined to any specific geographic location, and can vary greatly in terms of size, location, intensity, and duration; they are most likely to occur in open grasslands. The threat to people and property is greater in the fringe areas where developed areas meet open grass lands. See Figure 4-47 for wildfire ignition locations in Galveston County. According to Texas A&M Forest Service, none of those wildfires were considered “large”, which means none of them reached 500 acres. Figure 4-48 shows the extent of the WUI in Galveston County. There are small areas of the intermix areas in the eastern and western portions of the County, with an area of interface and intermix in the La Marque- Hitchcock CCD. Section 4.3.17: Wildfire Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-164 2022 Update Figure 4-47 Wildfire Ignition Locations 2005-2020 Source: (Texas A&M Forest Service 2021) Section 4.3.17: Wildfire Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-165 2022 Update Figure 4-48 WUI in Galveston County Section 4.3.17: Wildfire Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-166 2022 Update Extent Fire risk is measured in terms of magnitude and intensity using the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), a mathematical system for relating current and recent weather conditions to potential or expected fire behavior. The KBDI determines forest fire potential based on a daily water balance, where a drought factor is balanced with precipitation and soil moisture (assumed to have a maximum storage capacity of 8 inches) and is expressed in hundredths of an inch of soil moisture depletion. Each color on the map represents the drought index at that location. The index ranges from zero, the point of no moisture deficiency, to 800, the maximum drought that is possible (NOAA NIDIS n.d.). Figure 4-49 Keetch-Byram Drought Index for the State of Texas, December 6, 2021 Source: (Texas Weather Connection 2021) Note: The black circle denotes the approximate location of Galveston County. Fire behavior can be categorized at four distinct levels: • 0-200 – Soil and fuel moisture are high. Most fuels will not readily ignite or burn. However, with sufficient sunlight and wind, cured grasses and some light surface fuels will burn in spots and patches. Section 4.3.17: Wildfire Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-167 2022 Update • 200-400 – Fires more readily burn and will carry across an area with no gaps. Heavier fuels will still not readily ignite and burn. Expect smoldering and the resulting smoke to carry into and possibly through the night. • 400-600 – Fire intensity begins to significantly increase. Fires will readily burn in all directions exposing mineral soils in some locations. Larger fuels may burn or smolder for several days creating possible smoke and control problems. • 600-800 – Fires will burn to mineral soil. Stumps will burn to the end of underground roots and spotting will be a major problem. Fires will burn through the night and heavier fuels will actively burn and contribute to fire intensity. Using the KBDI index is a good measure of the readiness of fuels for wildland fire. Caution should be exercised in dryer, hotter conditions, and the KBDI should be referenced as the area experiences changes in precipitation and soil moisture. Worst-Case Scenario A worst-case scenario would involve a wildfire during a high wind event, preceded by prolonged elevated temperatures and drought, however since insufficient historical records exist, it is not possible to use previous records to project specific damages for a worst-case scenario in the future. Nevertheless, this type of event would have both a short- and long-term effects on the planning area. The fire could burn structures and infrastructure creating power and communication outages. Parts of the planning area could experience limited ingress and egress as transportation corridors are blocked by fire. Air quality would be affected and could pose serious risks for the elderly and those with compromised respiratory systems. Previous Occurrences Between 1988 and 2021, Texas had 250 FEMA disaster declarations for wildfire, however Galveston County was not included in any of those declarations. Likewise, between 1950 and 2021, the NCEI Storm Events Database did not include any wildfire events for Galveston County. For this HMP update, there was limited information regarding wildfire events in the planning area. Climate Change Projections Climate change has the potential to affect multiple elements of the wildfire system: fire behavior, ignitions, fire management, and vegetation fuels. Hot dry spells create the highest fire risk. Increased temperatures may intensify wildfire danger by warming and drying out vegetation. Changes in climate patterns may impact the distribution and perseverance of insect outbreaks that create dead trees (increase fuel). When climate alters fuel loads and fuel moisture, forest susceptibility to wildfires changes. Climate change also may increase winds that spread fires. Faster fires are harder to contain, and thus are more likely to expand into residential neighborhoods. Probability of Future Occurrences Due to the lack of data on past wildfire events in the planning area, the probability of future events is based on event history and input from the Steering Committee. The probability of occurrence for wildfire events in the planning area is considered occasional (between 10 and 100% annual chance of occurring. Vulnerability Assessment To understand risk, a community must evaluate assets exposed to and vulnerable to the identified hazard. The entirety of Galveston County is exposed and vulnerable to the wildfire hazard; therefore, all assets within the County (population, structures, critical facilities, and lifelines), as described in Section 3 (County Profile), are Section 4.3.17: Wildfire Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-168 2022 Update potentially vulnerable to a wildfire event. The following text evaluates and estimates the potential impact of the wildfire hazard in the County. Impact on Life, Health and Safety All people exposed to the wildfire hazard are potentially vulnerable to wildfire impacts. Smoke and air pollution from wildfires can be a severe health hazard, especially for sensitive populations, including children, the elderly and those with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. In addition, wildfire may threaten the health and safety of those fighting the fires. First responders are exposed to dangers from the initial incident and after-effects from smoke inhalation and heat stroke. Persons with access and functional needs, the elderly and very young may be especially vulnerable to a wildfire if there is not adequate warning time before evacuation is needed. However, due to the humid climate of the Galveston County planning area, the number of previous occurrences and the potential property at risk, the impact of an event would be minor with few injuries. Furthermore, there is only a small percentage (1%) of Galveston County’s population that is located within the wildfire hazard area (Table 4-89). Table 4-89. Estimated Population Located Within the WUI Source: University of Wisconsin 2010, American Community Survey 2019 (5-year estimates 2015-2019) Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Impact on General Building Stock All property exposed to the wildfire hazard is vulnerable. Structures that were not constructed to standards designed to protect a building from a wildfire may be especially vulnerable. As of 2008, the International Building code requires minimum standards be met for new buildings in fire hazard severity zones. It is unknown how many buildings in the County were built to these standards. However, there is only a small percentage of buildings in the County that are located in the Wildland-Urban Interface/Intermix wildfire fuel hazard area, thus not many are vulnerable to wildfires (Table 4-90 and Table 4-91). Jurisdiction Total Population (American Community Survey 2015- 2019) Estimated Population Located Within the Wildland-Urban Interface/Intermix (WUI) Wildfire Hazard Areas Number of People in the WUI Interface Wildfire Hazard Area Percent of Total Number of People in the WUI Intermix Wildfire Hazard Area Percent of Total Bayou Vista (C) 1,763 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Clear Lake Shores (C) 1,258 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Dickinson (C) 20,847 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Friendswood (C) 41,213 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Hitchcock (C) 7,301 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Jamaica Beach (C) 1,078 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Kemah (C) 1,807 0 0.0% 0 0.0% La Marque (C) 18,030 0 0.0% 0 0.0% League City (C) 114,392 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Santa Fe (C) 12,735 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Tiki Island (V) 1,106 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Galveston County (Total) 350,682 1,254 0.4% 1,973 0.6% Section 4.3.17: Wildfire Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-169 2022 Update Table 4-90. Building Stock Located within the Wildland-Urban Interface Wildfire Hazard Area Jurisdiction Total Number of Buildings Total Replacement Cost Value (RCV) Estimated Building Stock Located Within the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Wildfire Fuel Hazard Areas Number of Buildings in the WUI Hazard Area Percent of Total Total Replacement Cost Value of Buildings Located in the WUI Hazard Area Percent of Total Bayou Vista (C) 1365 $445,354,087.33 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Clear Lake Shores (C) 1155 $904,562,368.66 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Dickinson (C) 10351 $6,601,710,645.63 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Friendswood (C) 14891 $10,815,456,384.12 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Hitchcock (C) 5452 $4,592,036,651.86 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Jamaica Beach (C) 1291 $458,205,838.82 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Kemah (C) 1634 $2,631,702,105.60 0 0.0% $0 0.0% La Marque (C) 10749 $7,927,292,522.28 0 0.0% $0 0.0% League City (C) 46742 $31,237,974,594.10 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Santa Fe (C) 7942 $4,831,628,162.13 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Tiki Island (V) 868 $365,209,145.44 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Galveston County (Total) 209947 $166,321,604,688.46 1,173 0.6% $599,635,507 0.4% Source: University of Wisconsin 2010, Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing 2018; RS Means 2021 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Table 4-91. Building Stock Located within the Wildland-Urban Intermix Wildfire Hazard Area Jurisdiction Total Number of Buildings Total Replacement Cost Value (RCV) Estimated Building Stock Located Within the Wildland-Urban Intermix (WUI) Wildfire Fuel Hazard Areas Number of Buildings in the WUI Hazard Area Percent of Total Total Replacement Cost Value of Buildings Located in the WUI Hazard Area Percent of Total Bayou Vista (C) 1365 $445,354,087.33 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Clear Lake Shores (C) 1155 $904,562,368.66 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Dickinson (C) 10351 $6,601,710,645.63 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Friendswood (C) 14891 $10,815,456,384.12 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Hitchcock (C) 5452 $4,592,036,651.86 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Jamaica Beach (C) 1291 $458,205,838.82 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Kemah (C) 1634 $2,631,702,105.60 0 0.0% $0 0.0% La Marque (C) 10749 $7,927,292,522.28 0 0.0% $0 0.0% League City (C) 46742 $31,237,974,594.10 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Santa Fe (C) 7942 $4,831,628,162.13 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Tiki Island (V) 868 $365,209,145.44 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Section 4.3.17: Wildfire Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-170 2022 Update Jurisdiction Total Number of Buildings Total Replacement Cost Value (RCV) Estimated Building Stock Located Within the Wildland-Urban Intermix (WUI) Wildfire Fuel Hazard Areas Number of Buildings in the WUI Hazard Area Percent of Total Total Replacement Cost Value of Buildings Located in the WUI Hazard Area Percent of Total Galveston County (Total) 209947 $166,321,604,688.46 1,812 0.9% $1,138,026,689 0.7% Source: University of Wisconsin 2010, Galveston Central Appraisal District; Microsoft Bing 2018; RS Means 2021 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Impact on Critical Facilities Critical facilities not built to fire protection standards. Utility poles and lines, and facilities containing hazardous materials are most vulnerable to the wildfire hazard. Most roads and railroads would not sustain damage except in the worst scenarios, although roads and bridges can be blocked by debris or other wildfire -related conditions and become impassable. While Table 4-92 indicates that no critical facilities are located in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) wildfire hazard area, if a wildfire reached the following critical facilities, their vulnerability could complicate response and recovery efforts during and following an event: • Hazardous Materials and Fuel Storage—During a wildfire event, these materials could rupture due to excessive heat and act as fuel for the fire, causing rapid spreading and escalating the fire to unmanageable levels. In addition, they could leak into surrounding areas, saturating soils, and seeping into surface waters, and have a disastrous effect on the environment. • Communication Facilities—If these facilities are damaged and become inoperable, it would exacerbate already difficult communication in the planning area. • Fire Stations—If fire stations were compromised during a wildfire event, it would make fire suppression and support services even more challenging. Table 4-92. Estimated Critical Facilitates and Lifelines Located within the Wildland-Urban Interface Wildfire Hazard Area Jurisdiction Total Critical Facilities Located in Jurisdiction Total Lifelines Located in Jurisdiction Number of Critical Facilities and Lifeline Facilities Located in the Wildland-Urban Interface Wildfire Hazard Area Critical Facilities Percent of Total Critical Facilities Lifelines Percent of Total Lifelines Bayou Vista (C) 5 5 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Clear Lake Shores (C) 24 24 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Dickinson (C) 91 83 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Friendswood (C) 96 82 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Hitchcock (C) 214 212 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Jamaica Beach (C) 11 11 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Kemah (C) 15 14 0 0.0% 0 0.0% La Marque (C) 121 107 0 0.0% 0 0.0% League City (C) 321 283 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Section 4.3.17: Wildfire Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-171 2022 Update Jurisdiction Total Critical Facilities Located in Jurisdiction Total Lifelines Located in Jurisdiction Number of Critical Facilities and Lifeline Facilities Located in the Wildland-Urban Interface Wildfire Hazard Area Critical Facilities Percent of Total Critical Facilities Lifelines Percent of Total Lifelines Santa Fe (C) 135 128 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Tiki Island (V) 7 7 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Galveston County (Total) 2,437 2,317 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Sources: Essential Government Functions Government Offices 2021; City of Galveston 2021; HIFLD 2020; Texas Commission on Environmental Quality 2021; Texas Tech University 2021; University of Wisconsin 2010 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Impact on the Economy Wildfire events can have major economic impacts on a community from the initial loss of structures and the subsequent loss of revenue from destroyed business and decrease in tourism. Wildfires can cost thousands of taxpayer dollars to suppress and control and can involve hundreds of operating hours on fire apparatus and thousands of volunteer man hours from the volunteer firefighters. There are also many direct and indirect costs to local businesses that excuse volunteers from working to fight these fires. Table 4-93. Estimated Building Stock Located Within the WUI Jurisdiction Estimated Building Stock Located Within the Wildland-Urban Interface/Intermix (WUI) Wildfire Fuel Hazard Areas Number of Buildings in the WUI Interface Wildfire Hazard Area Percent of Total Total Replacement Cost Value of Buildings Located in the WUI Interface Wildfire Hazard Area Percent of Total Number of Buildings in the WUI Intermix Wildfire Hazard Area Percent of Total Total Replacement Cost Value of Buildings Located in the WUI Intermix Wildfire Hazard Area Percent of Total Bayou Vista (C) 0 0.0% $0 0.0% 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Clear Lake Shores (C) 0 0.0% $0 0.0% 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Dickinson (C) 0 0.0% $0 0.0% 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Friendswood (C) 0 0.0% $0 0.0% 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Hitchcock (C) 0 0.0% $0 0.0% 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Jamaica Beach (C) 0 0.0% $0 0.0% 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Kemah (C) 0 0.0% $0 0.0% 0 0.0% $0 0.0% La Marque (C) 0 0.0% $0 0.0% 0 0.0% $0 0.0% League City (C) 0 0.0% $0 0.0% 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Santa Fe (C) 0 0.0% $0 0.0% 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Tiki Island (V) 0 0.0% $0 0.0% 0 0.0% $0 0.0% Galveston County (Total) 1,173 0.6% $599,635,507 0.4% 1,812 0.9% $1,138,026,689 0.7% Sources: Essential Government Functions Government Offices 2021; City of Galveston 2021; HIFLD 2020; Texas Commission on Environmental Quality 2021; Texas Tech University 2021; University of Wisconsin 2010 Note: The County total includes non-participating jurisdictions, census county divisions, and unincorporated areas in the County. Impact on the Environment Fire is a natural and critical ecosystem process in most terrestrial ecosystems, affecting the types, structure, and spatial extent of native vegetation. However, it also can cause severe environmental impacts: • Damaged Fisheries—Critical fisheries can suffer from increased water temperatures, sedimentation, and changes in water quality. Section 4.3.17: Wildfire Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-172 2022 Update • Soil Erosion—The protective covering provided by foliage and dead organic matter is removed, leaving the soil fully exposed to wind and water erosion. Accelerated soil erosion occurs, causing landslides and threatening aquatic habitats. • Spread of Invasive Plant Species—Non-native woody plant species frequently invade burned areas. When weeds become established, they can dominate the plant cover over broad landscapes, and become difficult and costly to control. • Disease and Insect Infestations—Unless diseased or insect-infested trees are swiftly removed, infestations and disease can spread to healthy forests and private lands. Timely active management actions are needed to remove diseased or infested trees. • Destroyed Endangered Species Habitat—Fire can have negative consequences for endangered species. • Soil Sterilization—Some fires burn so hot that they can sterilize the soil. Topsoil exposed to extreme heat can become water repellant, and soil nutrients may be lost. • Reduced Timber Harvesting—Timber can be destroyed and lead to smaller available timber harvests. • Reduced Agricultural Resources—Wildfire can have disastrous consequences on agricultural resources, removing them from production and necessitating lengthy restoration programs. • Damaged Cultural Resources—Scenic vistas can be damaged, access to recreational areas can be reduced and destruction of cultural resources may occur. Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that affect vulnerability can assist in planning for future development and ensure establishment of appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: • Potential or projected development • Projected changes in population • Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change Projected Development As a highly urbanized planning area, wildfire risk exposure is low. Urbanization tends to alter the natural fire regime and can create the potential for the expansion of urbanized areas into wildland areas. The expansion of development toward wildfire hazard areas can be managed with strong land use and building codes. The International Building Code includes minimum standards related to the design and construction of buildings in fire hazard zones. The planning area is well equipped with these tools and this planning process has assessed capabilities with regards to the tools. As the planning area experiences future growth, it is anticipated that the exposure to this hazard will remain as assessed or even decrease over time due to these capabilities. Projected Changes in Population The County experienced an increase in population between the 2010 Census (291,309) and the estimated 2015- 2019 American Community Survey estimated population of 350,682. The population of the County is expected to increase over the next few years. The increase in population will expose more people to the wildfire hazard. Climate Change Climate change has the potential to affect multiple elements of the wildfire system: fire behavior, ignitions, fire management, and vegetation fuels. Hot dry spells create the highest fire risk. Increased temperatures may intensify wildfire danger by warming and drying out vegetation. Changes in climate patterns may impact the distribution and perseverance of insect outbreaks that create dead trees (increase fuel). When climate alters fuel Section 4.4.1: Hazard Ranking Methodology Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-173 2022 Update loads and fuel moisture, forest susceptibility to wildfires changes. Climate change also may increase winds that spread fires. Faster fires are harder to contain, and thus are more likely to expand into residential neighborhoods. Change of Vulnerability Since the 2017 HMP For this hazard mitigation plan update, the 2010 Wildland-Urban Interface/Intermix data from the University of Wisconsin was referenced to determine areas within Galveston County that are vulnerable to wildfires. Population statistics have also been updated using the 5-Year 2015-2019 American Community Survey Population Estimates. The 2017 general building stock was updated using RS Means 2021 replacement cost values and updated parcel and tax assessment information from the Galveston Central Appraisal District. Additionally, the critical facility inventory was updated by Galveston County. Overall, this vulnerability assessment uses a more accurate and updated building inventory which provides more accurate estimated exposure and potential losses for Galveston County. 4.4 RISK RANKING A comprehensive range of hazards that pose a significant risk to Galveston County were selected and considered during the development of this plan; see Section 4.2 (Identification of Hazards of Concern). However, each community has differing levels of exposure and vulnerability to each of these hazards. It is important for each community participating in this plan to recognize those hazards that pose the greatest risk to their community and direct their attention and resources accordingly to manage risk and reduce losses most effectively and efficiently. The hazard ranking for the County and each participating jurisdiction can be found in their jurisdictional annexes in Volume II, Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes) of this plan. To this end, a hazard risk ranking process was conducted for Galveston County and its jurisdictions using the method described below. This method includes four risk assessment categories—probability of occurrence, impact (population, property, and economy), adaptive capacity, and changing future conditions (i.e., climate change). Each was assigned a weighting factor to calculate an overall ranking value for each hazard of concern. Depending on the calculation, each hazard was assigned a high, medium, or low ranking. Details regarding each of these categories is described below. 4.4.1 Hazard Ranking Methodology Estimates of hazard risk for the County were developed using methodologies promoted by FEMA’s hazard mitigation planning guidance, generated by FEMA’s Hazus risk assessment tool, and input from Galveston County and participating jurisdictions. As described in Section 4.1 (Methodology and Tools), three different levels of analysis were used to estimate potential impacts: 1) historic loss/qualitative analysis; 2) exposure analysis; and 3) loss estimation. All three levels of analysis are suitable for planning purposes; however, with any risk analysis, there is underlying uncertainty resulting from assumptions used to describe and assess vulnerability and the methodologies available to model impacts. Impacts from any hazard event within the County will vary from the analysis presented here based on the factors described for each hazard of concern, namely location, extent, warning time, and mitigation measures in place at the time of an event. The hazard ranking methodology for some hazards of concern is based on a scenario event, while others are based on their potential risk to the County as a whole. In order to account for these differences, the quantitative hazard ranking methodology was adjusted using professional judgement and subject-matter input; assumptions are included, as appropriate, in the following subsections. The limitations of this analysis are recognized given the scenarios do not have the same likelihood of occurrence; nonetheless, there is value in summarizing and Section 4.4: Risk Ranking Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-174 2022 Update comparing the hazards using a standardized approach to evaluate relative risk. The following categories were considered when evaluating the relative risk of the hazards of concern. • Probability of Occurrence - The probability of occurrence of the scenario evaluated was estimated by examining the historic record and/or calculating the likelihood of annual occurrence. When no scenario was assessed, an examination of the historic record and judgement was used to estimate the probability of occurrence of an event that will impact the County. • Impact—The following three hazard impact subcategories were considered: impact to people; impact to buildings; and impact to the economy. The results of the updated risk assessment and/or professional judgement were used to assign the numeric values for these three impact subcategories. A factor was applied to each subcategory, giving impact on population the greatest weight. o Population—Numeric value x 3 o Buildings—Numeric value x 2 o Economy—Numeric value x 1 • Adaptive Capacity - Adaptive capacity describes a jurisdiction’s current ability to protect from or withstand a hazard event. This includes capabilities and capacity in the following areas: administrative, technical, planning/regulatory, and financial. Mitigation measures already in place increases a jurisdiction’s capacity to withstand and rebound from events (e.g. codes/ordinances with higher standards to withstand hazards due to design or location; deployable resources; or plans and procedures in place to respond to an event). In other words, assigning ‘weak’ for adaptive capacity means the jurisdiction does not have the capability to effectively respond, which increases vulnerability; whereas ‘strong’ adaptive capacity means the jurisdiction does have the capability to effectively respond, which decreases vulnerability. These ratings were assigned using the results of the core capability assessment with subject-matter input from each jurisdiction. • Climate Change (Changing Future Conditions) - Current climate change projections were considered as part of the hazard ranking to ensure the potential for an increase in severity/frequency of the hazard was included. This was important to Galveston County to include because the hazard ranking helps guide and prioritize the mitigation strategy development, which should have a long-term future vision to mitigate the hazards of concern. The potential impacts climate change may have on each hazard of concern is discussed in Sections 4.3.1 through 4.3.17. The benchmark values in the methodology are similar to confidence levels outlined in the National Climate Assessment 2017. Table 4-94summarizes the categories, benchmark values, and weights used to calculate the risk factor for each hazard. Using the weighting applied, the highest possible risk factor value is 6.9. The higher the number, the greater the relative risk. Based on the total for each hazard, a priority ranking is assigned to each hazard of concern (high, medium, or low). The rankings were categorized as follows: Low = Values less than 3.9; Medium = Values between 3.9 and 4.9; High = Values greater than 4.9. Table 4-94. Summary of Hazard Ranking Approach Category Level / Category Degree of Risk / Benchmark Value Numeric Value Weighted Value Probability of Occurrence Unlikely A hazard event is not likely to occur or is unlikely to occur with less than a 1% annual chance probability. 0 30% Hazard Ranking Equation [Probability of Occurrence x 0.3] + [(Impact on Population x 3) + (Impact on Property x 2) + (Impact on Economy x 1) x 0.3] + [Adaptive Capacity x 0.3] + [Climate Change x 0.1] Section 4.4: Risk Ranking Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-175 2022 Update Category Level / Category Degree of Risk / Benchmark Value Numeric Value Weighted Value Rare Between 1 and 10% annual probability of a hazard event occurring. 1 Occasional Between 10 and 100% annual probability of a hazard event occurring. 2 Frequent 100% annual probability; a hazard event may occur multiple times per year. 3 Impact (Sum of all 3) Population (Numeric Value x 3) Low 14% or less of your population is exposed to a hazard with potential for measurable life safety impact, due to its extent and location. 1 30% Medium 15% to 29% of your population is exposed to a hazard with potential for measurable life safety impact, due to its extent and location. 2 High 30% or more of your population is exposed to a hazard with potential for measurable life safety impact, due to its extent and location. 3 Property (Numeric Value x 2) Low Property exposure is 14% or less of the total number of structures for your community. 1 Medium Property exposure is 15% to 29% of the total number of structures for your community. 2 High Property exposure is 30% or more of the total number of structures for your community. 3 Economy (Numeric Value x 1) Low Loss estimate is 9% or less of the total replacement cost for your community. 1 Medium Loss estimate is 10% to 19% of the total replacement cost for your community. 2 High Loss estimate is 20% or more of the total replacement cost for your community. 3 Adaptive Capacity Weak Weak/outdated/inconsistent plans, policies, codes/ordinances in place; no redundancies; limited to no deployable resources; limited capabilities to respond; long recovery. 1 30% Moderate Plans, policies, codes/ordinances in place and meet minimum requirements; mitigation strategies identified but not implemented on a widespread scale; county/jurisdiction can recover but needs outside resources; moderate county/Jurisdiction capabilities. 0 Strong Plans, policies, codes/ordinances in place and exceed minimum requirements; mitigation/protective measures in place; county/jurisdiction has ability to recover quickly because resources are readily available, and capabilities are high. -1 Climate Change Low No local data is available; modeling projections are uncertain on whether there is increased future risk; confidence level is low (inconclusive evidence). 1 10% Medium Studies and modeling projections indicate a potential for exacerbated conditions due to climate change; confidence level is medium to high (suggestive to moderate evidence). 2 High Studies and modeling projections indicate exacerbated conditions/increased future risk due to climate change; very high confidence level (strong evidence, well documented and acceptable methods). 3 Note: A numerical value of zero is assigned if there is no impact. *For the purposes of this exercise, “impacted” means exposed for population and property and estimated loss for economy. For non-natural hazards, although they may occur anywhere in the County, an event will not likely cause countywide impacts; therefore, impact to population was scored using an event-specific scenario. In an attempt to summarize the confidence level regarding the input utilized to populate the hazard ranking, a gradient of certainty was developed. A certainty factor of high, medium, or low was selected and assigned to each hazard to provide a level of transparency and increased understanding of the data utilized to support the resulting ranking. The following scale was used to assign a certainty factor to each hazard: Section 4.4: Risk Ranking Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-176 2022 Update • High—Defined scenario/event to evaluate; probability calculated; evidenced-based/quantitative assessment to estimate potential impacts through hazard modeling. • Moderate—Defined scenario/event or only a hazard area to evaluate; estimated probability; combination of quantitative (exposure analysis, no hazard modeling) and qualitative data to estimate potential impacts. • Low—Scenario or hazard area is undefined; there is a degree of uncertainty regarding event probability; majority of potential impacts are qualitative. Table 4-95 summarizes the hazard scenario or hazard area evaluated; highlights key impacts to population, buildings/critical assets, and the economy; and lists the associated certainty factor assigned for each hazard to convey the level of confidence in the data used. This table is n ot intended to be a complete and comprehensive list of all hazard impacts determined in the risk assessment and considered for the hazard ranking exercise. Refer to Sections 4.3.1 to 4.3.17 for a complete summary of all estimated impacts for each hazard. Section 4.4: Risk Ranking Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-177 2022 Update Table 4-95. Overview of the Hazard Scenario and Associated Estimated Impacts Considered in the Hazard Ranking Hazard of Concern Hazard/ Scenario Area Evaluated Population Buildings Economya Certainty Factor Coastal and Inland Erosion Exposure to the Coastal Erosion Hazard Area Coastal Erosion Hazard Area: 5,049 Coastal Erosion Hazard Area: 4,922 Coastal Erosion Hazard Area: $6,077,155,937 Moderate Exposure to Inland Erosion Hazard Area Inland Erosion Hazard Area: 37,595 Inland Erosion Hazard Area: 21,966 Inland Erosion Hazard Area: $16,543,834,687 Dam/ Levee Failure Partial or complete failure of a dam or levee. There are 2 dams and five levee systems in the County. Population impacted is dependent on the location and capacity of the dam or levee, the extent of the failure inundation area and the severity of the failure. The number of buildings impacted is dependent on the capacity of the dam/levee, the extent of the dam/levee failure inundation area, and the severity of the failure. Economic impacts include dam/levee/building/infrastructure repairs; debris removal/disposal; utility impacts. Moderate Drought Prolonged drought event - the County is serviced water suppliers who primarily get water from surface water, reservoirs, and unconfined groundwater sources. Entire population exposed. Population on surface water supplies may be impacted first; water restrictions/contamination; increased wildfire risk. Droughts are not expected to cause direct damage to buildings. Losses include aesthetic, landscape/nursery/agricultural industry impacts Moderate Expansive Soils Soils (Linear Extensibility >6%) Hazard Area Soils (Linear Extensibility >6%) Hazard Area: 167,514 Soils (Linear Extensibility >6%) Hazard Area: 85,766 Soils (Linear Extensibility >6%) Hazard Area: $62,998,467,572 Moderate Extreme Temperature Extreme hot and cold events All residents/commuters/visitors are exposed; socially-vulnerable populations may be at increased risk. All buildings are exposed; the degree of impact depends on the scale of the incident. Business and commercial losses due to long-term utility outages; repairs to power and utility lines. Moderate Flood 1% annual chance (100-year) and 0.2% annual chance (500-year) 1% annual chance (100-year) 103,507 1% annual chance (100-year) 81,490 1% annual chance (100-year) $73,043,916,760 Moderate Hail Hail impacts from severe weather events All residents/commuters/visitors are exposed; socially-vulnerable populations may be at increased risk. All buildings are exposed; the degree of impact depends on the scale of the incident and condition of structures. Economic losses can include building/infrastructure damage; power outages; repairs to utility and power lines Moderate Hurricane and Tropical Storm Categories 1-4 Storm Surge Hazard Area Category 1 Storm Surge: 66,290 Category 1 Storm Surge: 50,086 Category 1 Storm Surge: $45,671,691,795 Moderate Category 2 Storm Surge: 129,076 Category 2 Storm Surge: 98,585 Category 2 Storm Surge: $87,001,755,597 Category 3 Storm Surge: 210,755 Category 3 Storm Surge: 144,078 Category 3 Storm Surge: $119,703,104,280 Category 4 Storm Surge: 265,843 Category 4 Storm Surge: 170,325 Category 4 Storm Surge: $138,655,890,684 Land Subsidence Rates of Elevation Loss and Groundwater Levels All residents/commuters/visitors are exposed; socially-vulnerable populations may be at increased risk. All buildings are exposed; the degree of impact depends on the scale of the incident and condition of structures. Economic losses can include building/infrastructure damage Moderate Lightning Lightning impacts from severe weather events All residents/commuters/visitors are exposed; socially-vulnerable populations may be at increased risk. All buildings are exposed; the degree of impact depends on the scale of the incident and condition of structures. Economic losses can include building/infrastructure damage; power outages; repairs to utility and power lines Moderate Pandemic Pandemic include: Influenza, West Nile Virus, and Coronavirus. Population impacted is dependent on the disease and severity of the outbreak; in some cases, immuno-compromised persons are more vulnerable. Structural impacts due to a pandemic would be limited. Economic losses can include County financial impacts to monitor/address outbreaks; lost wages or commercial interruptions; depends on the severity and type of pandemic. Moderate Section 4.4: Risk Ranking Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-178 2022 Update Hazard of Concern Hazard/ Scenario Area Evaluated Population Buildings Economya Certainty Factor Severe Winter Storm Blizzard, Snow, Ice All residents/commuters/visitors are exposed; socially-vulnerable populations may be at increased risk. All buildings are exposed; the degree of impact depends on the scale of the incident and condition of structures. The cost of snow and ice removal and repair of roads/infrastructure can impact operating budgets. Moderate Thunderstorm Wind 100-Year and 500-MRP events All residents/commuters/visitors are exposed; socially-vulnerable populations may be at increased risk. All buildings are exposed; the degree of impact depends on the scale of the incident and condition of structures. 100-Year MRP Estimated Damages $8,513,160,224 Moderate 500-Year MRP Estimated Damages $22,980,263,787 Tornadoes Tornadoes All residents/commuters/visitors are exposed; socially-vulnerable populations may be at increased risk. All buildings are exposed; the degree of impact depends on the scale of the incident and condition of structures. Economic losses can include building/infrastructure damage; power outages; repairs to utility and power lines Moderate Tsunami Tsunami Hazard Area (evacuation areas plus high tide – 300 ft plus 22 ft.) Population located in Tsunami Hazard Area: 1,255 Buildings located in Tsunami Hazard Area: 1,722 RCV of buildings in Tsunami Hazard Area: $3,204,780,207 Moderate Wildfire Wildland-Urban Interface/Intermix (WUI) Wildfire Fuel Hazard Areas Population residing in the WUI Interface: 1,254 Number of buildings the WUI Interface: 1,173 Replacement cost value of buildings located in the WUI Interface: $599,635,507 Moderate Population residing in the WUI Intermix: 1,973 Number of buildings the WUI Intermix: 1,812 Replacement cost value of buildings located in the WUI Intermix: $1,138,026,689 Utility Failure Utility Outages from Hazard Events All residents/commuters/visitors are exposed; socially-vulnerable populations may be at increased risk. All buildings are exposed; the degree of impact depends on the scale of the incident. Business and commercial losses due to long-term utility outages; repairs to power and utility lines. Moderate Notes: a Estimated loss in replacement cost values as available from HAZUS-MH. b The impacts and vulnerability from a hazardous materials event are greatly dependent on the material and its physical and chemical properties, the quantity released, weather conditions, micro-meteorological effects of buildings and terrain, maintenance/mechanical failures, and distance and related response time for emergency response teams. All totals for exposure values include all of Galveston County, including non-participating municipalities, CCDs, and unincorporated areas. Exposed = This refers to the number of assets located in the hazard area; all of which may not incur losses as a result of the event. MRP = Mean Return Period SFHA = Special flood hazard area (1-percent annual chance flood event) RCV = Replacement cost value based on 2021 RSMeans Section 4.4: Risk Ranking Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-179 2022 Update 4.4.2 Hazard Ranking Results Using the process described above, the ranking for the identified hazards of concern was determined for Galveston County (refer to Table 4-96). The hazard ranking is detailed in the subsequent tables that present the stepwise process for the ranking. The countywide ranking includes the entire planning area and may not reflect the highest risk indicated for any of the participating jurisdictions. The resulting ranks of each municipality indicate the differing degrees of risk exposure and vulnerability. The results support the appropriate selection and prioritization of initiatives to reduce the highest levels of risk for each municipality. Both the County and the participating jurisdictions have applied the same methodology to develop the countywide risk and local rankings to ensure consistency in the overall ranking of risk; jurisdictions had the ability to alter rankings based on local knowledge and experience in handling each hazard. This hazard ranking exercise serves four purposes: 1) to describe the probability of occurrence for each hazard; 2) to describe the impact each would have on the people, property, and economy; 3) to evaluate the capabilities a community has with regards to the hazards of concern; and 4) to consider changing future conditions (i.e., climate change) in Galveston County. Section 4.4: Risk Ranking Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-180 2022 Update Table 4-96. Ranking for Hazards of Concern for Galveston County Hazard of Concern Probability Impact Adaptive Capacity Climate Change Population Property Economy Total Impact Value Category Numeric Value Impact Numeric Value Weighted Value (x3) Impact Numeric Value Weighted Value (x2) Impact Numeric Value Weighted Value (x1) Coastal and Inland Erosion Occasional 2 L 1 1 x 3 = 3 L 1 1 x 2 = 2 M 2 2 x 1 = 2 9 M H Dam/ Levee Failure Rare 1 M 2 2 x 3 = 6 M 2 2 x 2 = 4 L 1 1 x 1 = 1 12 M M Drought Occasional 2 M 2 2 x 3 = 6 M 2 2 x 2 = 4 M 2 2 x 1 = 2 14 M H Expansive Soils Rare 1 H 3 3 x 3 = 9 H 3 3 x 2 = 6 H 3 3 x 1 = 3 19 M M Extreme Temperature Frequent 3 M 2 2 x 3 = 6 L 1 1 x 2 = 2 L 1 1 x 1 = 1 12 M H Flood Frequent 3 M 2 2 x 3 = 6 L 1 1 x 2 = 2 H 3 3 x 1 = 3 14 M H Hail Occasional 2 L 1 1 x 3 = 3 M 2 2 x 2 = 4 L 1 1 x 1 = 1 10 M M Hurricane and Tropical Storm Occasional 2 H 3 3 x 3 = 9 H 3 3 x 2 = 6 H 3 3 x 1 = 3 20 M H Land Subsidence Rare 1 L 1 1 x 3 = 3 L 1 1 x 2 = 2 M 2 2 x 1 = 2 8 M M Lightning Occasional 2 L 1 1 x 3 = 3 L 1 1 x 2 = 2 L 1 1 x 1 = 1 8 M M Pandemic Occasional 2 M 2 2 x 3 = 6 L 1 1 x 2 = 2 M 2 2 x 1 = 2 12 M M Severe Winter Storm Rare 1 M 2 2 x 3 = 6 L 1 1 x 2 = 2 L 1 1 x 1 = 1 10 M M Thunderstorm Wind Occasional 2 M 2 2 x 3 = 6 M 2 2 x 2 = 4 M 2 2 x 1 = 2 14 M H Tornadoes Occasional 2 M 2 2 x 3 = 6 M 2 2 x 2 = 4 M 2 2 x 1 = 2 14 M M Tsunami Rare 1 L 1 1 x 3 = 3 L 1 1 x 2 = 2 L 1 1 x 1 = 1 7 M M Wildfire Rare 1 L 1 1 x 3 = 3 L 1 1 x 2 = 2 L 1 1 x 1 = 1 7 M M Utility Failure Frequent 3 M 2 2 x 3 = 6 L 1 1 x 2 = 2 M 2 2 x 1 = 2 13 M M Section 4.4: Risk Ranking Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 4-181 2022 Update Table 4-97 presents the total calculations for each hazard ranking value for the hazards of concern. Table 4-97. Total Hazard Ranking Values for the Hazards of Concern for Galveston County Hazard of Concern Probability x 30% Total Impact x 30% Adaptive Capacity x 30% Changing Future Conditions x 10% Total Hazard Ranking Value Coastal and Inland Erosion 0.6 2.1 0 0.3 3.0 Dam/ Levee Failure 0.3 3.3 0 0.2 3.8 Drought 0.6 3.6 0 0.3 4.5 Expansive Soils 0.3 5.4 0 0.2 5.9 Extreme Temperature 0.9 2.7 0 0.3 3.9 Flood 0.9 3.3 0 0.3 4.5 Hail 0.6 2.4 0 0.2 3.2 Hurricane and Tropical Storm 0.6 5.4 0 0.3 6.3 Land Subsidence 0.3 2.1 0 0.2 2.3 Lightning 0.6 1.8 0 0.2 2.6 Pandemic 0.6 3 0 0.2 3.8 Severe Winter Storm 0.3 2.7 0 0.2 3.2 Thunderstorm Wind 0.6 3.6 0 0.3 4.5 Tornadoes 0.6 3.6 0 0.2 4.4 Tsunami 0.3 1.8 0 0.2 2.3 Wildfire 0.3 1.8 0 0.2 2.3 Utility Failure 0.9 3 0 0.2 4.1 Low = Values less than 3.9; Medium = Values between 3.9 and 4.9; High = Values greater than 4.9 These rankings have been used as one of the bases for identifying the jurisdictional hazard mitigation strategies included in Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes) of this plan. The summary rankings for the County reflect the results of the vulnerability analysis for each hazard of concern and vary from the specific results of each jurisdiction. For example, the severe storm hazard may be ranked low in one jurisdiction, but due to the exposure and impact countywide, it is ranked as a high hazard and is addressed in the County’s mitigation strategy accordingly. Jurisdictional ranking results are presented in each local annex in Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes) of this plan. SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-1 2022 Update SECTION 5. CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT According to FEMA’s Mitigation Planning How-To Guide #3, a capability assessment is an inventory of a community’s missions, programs, and policies and an analysis of its capacity to carry them out. Each jurisdiction has a unique set of capabilities available to accomplish mitigation and reduce long-term vulnerable to future hazard events. Capabilities include authorities, policies, programs, staff, and funding. Reviewing existing capabilities helps identify capabilities that currently implement mitigation and leads to loss reductions or that have the potential to be implemented in the future. This assessment is an integral part of the planning process. The assessment process enables identification, review, and analysis of current federal, state, and local programs, policies, regulations, funding, and practices that could either facilitate or hinder mitigation. During the original planning process, the county and all jurisdictions identified and assessed their capabilities in the areas of planning and regulatory, administrative, and technical, and fiscal. By completing this assessment, the Planning Committee and each jurisdiction learned how or whether they would be able to implement certain mitigation actions by determining the following: • Limitations that could exist on undertaking actions. • The range of local and state administrative, programmatic, regulatory, financial, and technical resources available to assist in implementing their mitigation actions. • Actions deemed infeasible, as they are currently outside the scope of capabilities. • Types of mitigation actions that could be technically, legally (regulatory), administratively, politically, or fiscally challenging or infeasible. • Opportunities to enhance local capabilities to support long term mitigation and risk reduction. During the 2022 plan update process, all participating jurisdictions were tasked with developing or updating their capability assessment, paying particular attention to evaluating the effectiveness of these capabilities in supporting hazard mitigation and identifying opportunities to enhance local capabilities to integrate hazard mitigation into their plans, programs, and day-to-day operations. County and municipal capabilities in the areas of planning and regulatory, administrative, and technical, and fiscal may be found in the Capability Assessment section of their jurisdictional annexes in Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes). 5.1 UPDATE PROCESS SUMMARY The purpose of the capability assessment is to understand the planning, regulatory, administrative, technical, and financial capabilities present in Galveston County. This assessment helps the County and its jurisdictions identify strengths and opportunities that can be used to reduce losses from hazard events and reduce risks throughout Galveston County. To complete the capability assessment, the contracted consultant met with Galveston County and each municipality virtually to review the capability assessment from the 2016 HMP and update accordingly. In addition to virtual meetings, the consultant reviewed plans and codes/ordinances to enhance the information provided by the jurisdictions. SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-2 2022 Update A summary of the various federal and state capabilities available to promote and support mitigation and reduce risk in Galveston County are presented below. Information provided by the County and municipalities are presented in Volume II, Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes) of this plan update. 5.2 PLANNING AND REGULATORY CAPABILITY Planning and regulatory capabilities are based on the implementation of ordinances, policies, local laws, and state statutes, and plans and programs that relate to guiding and management growth and development. Planning and regulatory capabilities refer not only to the current plans and regulations, but also to the jurisdiction’s ability to change and improve those plans and regulations as needed. The following provides the planning and regulatory capabilities for Galveston County. 5.2.1 Planning and Regulatory Capabilities – County and Local The following table summarizes the planning and regulatory capabilities available to Galveston County, at the county and local level. SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-3 2022 Update Table 5-1. Planning and Regulatory Capabilities – County and Local Capability Details Building Code Description: The County is governed by the Texas Administrative Code § 5.4008 The 2018 International Building Code (IBC) The 2018 International Residential Code (IRC) NFPA. By using the IRC, IBC and NFPA, the highest standards are assured for County construction to reduce the risk of hazards and protect both lives and property Responsible Agency: Texas Department of Insurance Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: All hazards Subdivision Ordinance - Rules, Regulations and Requirements Relating to the Approval and Acceptance of Improvements in Subdivisions or Re-Subdivisions – 3/3/1997 – last revised – 10/3/2005 Description: Major drainage ways through a subdivision shall be designed and constructed to accommodate the 100 -year peak rate of runoff, in the manner prescribed by the applicable Galveston County Drainage District and the Galveston County Engineer. The following requirements shall apply to all developments planned within the 100-year flood plain: 1. Any construction and/or fill that would obstruct flow and cause any increase in flood levels must be fully offset with conveyance improvements. 2. Flood plain storage volumes shall not be reduced by way of fill. Where flood plain fill is proposed and is demonstrated not to adversely affect conveyance, compensatory storage equal in volume and effect shall be excavated. Responsible Agency: County Engineer Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Flood Stormwater Management - Storm Water MS4 Pollution Control Order 2012 Description: Stormwater Management reduces the risk of pollutants that may have the potential to endanger local residents through inspection and enforcement of the MS4 regulations. Responsible Agency: Galveston County Health Department Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Flood Real Estate Disclosure - Texas Property Code Section § 5.008 - Seller’s Disclosure of Property Condition Description: Real Estate Disclosure ensures that property owners are aware of historical disaster impacts and gives them information necessary to plan for and mitigate future disasters Responsible Agency: Texas Real Estate Commission Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Flood Flood Damage Prevention - Galveston County Floodplain Regulations August 2019 Description: Floodplain regulations reduce risk to lives and property by ensuring mitigation measures are put into place for repetitive loss properties and new construction. Responsible Agency: Galveston County Engineer Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Flood Emergency Management - Texas Government Code Chapter 418 Description: Emergency Management requirements provide for the planning, mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery activities necessary for a high impact coastal community. Responsible Agency: Texas Division of Emergency Management Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: All hazards Capital Improvement Plan - Fiscal Year 2021 – Annual Operating Budget Description: The County encourages departments to submit two to five year capital plans for approval by the Commissioners Court. Approved plans shall be given priority during the annual budget process. Capital spending is reserved for major renovation, building, or road and bridge related projects that are planned for the fiscal year. Responsible Agency: Commissioners Court Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Flood, Severe Winter Storm, Hurricane, Utility Failure SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-4 2022 Update Capability Details Galveston County Debris Management Plan Description: Planning in advance for the removal and management of disaster related debris reduces the risk to lives and property from dangerous debris and vermin and begins the rebuilding process for the entire community. Responsible Agency: County Road and Bridge Department Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Flood, Hurricane Open Space Plan - Parks, Recreation, Open Space, and Conservation/Natural Resource Master Plan – January 2012 – 2017 Draft Description: The destruction caused to much of Galveston County’s coastal wildlife habitat and recreation areas in September 2008, has enhanced the need to prepare a new Master Plan that reflects current circumstances. This Master Plan document establishes the guidelines which will direct the acquisition and development of parks, recreation areas, and open spaces for the next eight years. The Master Plan Drawing illustrates the general type and location of recommended parks and open spaces This document also includes specific recommendations for future land acquisition, park development and natural resources conservation initiatives to serve the growing population and needs of Galveston County residents. Responsible Agency: County Parks and Recreation Department Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Flood Galveston County Dune Protection and Beach Access Plan Description: Shoreline management reduces the risk to lives and property through regulations designed to minimize the impact of natural hazards and manmade activities to the coastal environment Responsible Agency: General Land Office Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Flood Texas Agri-Life Extension Service Description: Agricultural planning reduces the risk to the animals and community during times of disaster. Responsible Agency: Galveston County Agricultural Extension Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Flood, Hurricane, Severe Winter Storm Galveston County Emergency Management Plan 2017 Description: The Galveston County Emergency Management Plan details both short-term response and long-term recovery plans that address communications, evacuation, and housing necessary for a variety of hazards that impact the community. Responsible Agency: Galveston County Office of Emergency Management. Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: All Hazards Post-Disaster Recovery Plan – Annex J Description: By preparing for recovery in advance, potential impact from hazards can be mitigated through planned response and recovery activities Responsible Agency: GCOEM and Long Term Recovery Group Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: All Hazards 5.2.2 Planning and Regulatory Capabilities – Federal and State The following table summarizes the planning and regulatory capabilities available to Galveston County, at the federal and state level. Table 5-2. Planning and Regulatory Capabilities – Federal and State Capability Details Disaster Mitigation Act (DMA) Description: The DMA is the current federal legislation addressing hazard mitigation planning. It emphasizes planning for disasters before they occur. It specifically addresses planning at the local level, requiring plans to be in place before Hazard Mitigation Assistance grant funds are available to communities. This plan is designed to meet the requirements of DMA, improving eligibility for future hazard mitigation funds. SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-5 2022 Update Capability Details Responsible Agency: FEMA Provides Funding for Mitigation: HMPs designed to meet the requirements of DMA will remain eligible for future FEMA Hazard Mitigation Assistance funds Hazard: All-natural hazards National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Description: The NFIP is a federal program enabling property owners in participating communities to purchase insurance as a protection against flood losses in exchange for state and community floodplain management regulations that reduce future flood damages. The Flood Hazard Profile in Section 4.3.6 (Flood) provides information on recent legislation related to reforms to the NFIP. All municipalities in Galveston County actively participate in the NFIP. As of September 2021, there were 62,867 policies in Galveston County. There have been 55,196 claims made, totaling over $2 billion for damages to structures and contents. Responsible Agency: FEMA Provides Funding for Mitigation: Full compliance and good standing under the NFIP are application prerequisites for all FEMA grant programs for which participating jurisdictions are eligible under this plan. Hazard: Flood NFIP Community Rating System (CRS) Description: As an additional component of the NFIP, CRS is a voluntary incentive program that recognizes and encourages community floodplain management activities that exceed the minimum NFIP requirements. As a result, flood insurance premium rates are discounted to reflect the reduced flood risk resulting from the community actions meeting the three goals of the CRS: (1) reduce flood losses, (2) facilitate accurate insurance rating, and (3) promote the awareness of flood insurance. Municipalities, and the county as a whole, could expect significant cost savings on premiums if enrolled in the CRS program. As of October 2021, 7 communities in Galveston County participate in the CRS program. • City of Dickinson, Class 8 • City of Friendswood, Class 7 • City of Galveston, Class 6 • City of Jamaica Beach, Class 8 • City of Kemah, Class 8 • City of League City, Class 5 • Village of Tiki Island, Class 7 Other communities in Galveston County have noted they are exploring the possibility of participating in the program in the future. Responsible Agency: FEMA Provides Funding for Mitigation: CRS premium discounts on flood insurance range from 5 percent for Class 9 communities up to 45 percent for Class 1 communities. Hazard: Flood Local Government Code Title 7. Regulation Of Land Use, Structures, Businesses, and Related Activities Subtitle A. Municipal Regulatory Authority Chapter 211. Municipal Zoning Authority Description: The powers granted under this subchapter are for the purpose of promoting the public health, safety, mor als, or general welfare and protecting and preserving places and areas of historical, cultural, or architectural importance and significance. The governing body of a municipality may regulate the size of buildings and other structures, lot coverage, size of open spaces, population density, the location and use of buildings and groundwater use. Zoning regulations must be adopted in accordance with a comprehensive plan and must be designed to: (1) lessen congestion in the streets. (2) secure safety from fire, panic, and other dangers. (3) promote health and the general welfare. (4) provide adequate light and air. (5) prevent the overcrowding of land. (6) avoid undue concentration of population; or SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-6 2022 Update Capability Details Subchapter A. General Zoning Regulations (7) facilitate the adequate provision of transportation, water, sewers, schools, parks, and other public requirements. The governing body of a municipality may divide the municipality into districts of a number, shape , and size the governing body considers best for carrying out this subchapter. Within each district, the governing body may regulate the erection, construction, reconstruction, alteration, repair, or use of buildings, other structures, or land. Zoning regulations must be uniform for each class or kind of building in a district, but the regulations may vary from district to district. The regulations shall be adopted with reasonable consideration, among other things, for the character of each district and its peculiar suitability for particular uses, with a view of conserving the value of buildings and encouraging the most appropriate use of land in the municipality. . Responsible Agency: State of Texas Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: All Hazards Texas Silver Jackets Description: Silver Jackets is a program under National Flood Risk Management Program to support agency collaboration and coordination with interagency, state-led flood risk and multiple hazard management teams. Provides resources and develops tools to support information sharing and networking and promotes implementation of flood risk management efforts that improve flood risk awareness and result in actions to reduce risk. For more information: http://silverjackets.nfrmp.us/ Responsible Agency: US Army Corp of Engineers Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Flood Texas General Land Office Description: The Texas General Land Office (GLO), through the Community Development and Revitalization division, works to rebuild Texas communities by putting Texans back in their homes, restoring critical infrastructure and mitigating future damage through resilient community planning. The GLO is setting a record pace administering both Community Development Block Grant Disaster Recovery (CDBG-DR) and Mitigation (CDBG-MIT) funds from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) on behalf of the state of Texas. More than $14 billion have been allocated for recovery and mitigation following Hurricanes Rita, Dolly, and Ike, the 2011 wildfires, the 2015 and 2016 floods, Hurricane Harvey, the 2018 South Texas floods, and the 2019 disasters. These grants can be used for a wide variety of activities including housing redevelopment, infrastructure repair and long-term planning, depending on HUD guidance. Responsible Agency: Texas General Land Office Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Flood, Hurricane, Wildfire Coastal Erosion Planning and Response Act (CEPRA) Description: The average erosion rate for the 367 miles of Texas coast is 4.1 feet per year. Sixty-four percent of the Texas coast is eroding at an average rate of about 6 feet per year, with some locations losing more than 30 feet per year. FEMA estimates that every dollar spent on erosion control and mitigation to preserve wetlands and other natural ecosystems, will provide a return on average of $4 in future cost-savings. Since 2000, the GLO’s Coastal Erosion Planning and Response Program has received $111.4 million in state - appropriated funding. Project partners (local governments, non-profits, state, and federal entities) have contributed $52 million in non-federal matching funds and in-kind contributions, along with $165.2 million in federal funds and in-kind contributions that have resulted in more than 355 coastal erosion response projects. Responsible Agency: General Land Office Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Flood, Hurricane, Land Subsidence Coastal Management Program (CMP) Description: Texas receives approximately $2 million annually in grants from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and 90% of the funds are passed through to local governments and entities to address environmental needs and promote sustainable economic development along the coast. Projects must improve the management of the state’s coastal SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-7 2022 Update Capability Details resources and ensure long-term ecological and economic productivity. Section 306 administrative funds can be used for non-construction, coastal planning and education, and research. Section 306A improvement funds can be utilized for construction and land acquisition projects and preservation and restoration. CMP funding categories include Coastal Natural Hazards Response, Critical Areas Enhancement, Public Access, Water/Sediment Quantity and Quality Improvements, Waterfront Revitalization and Ecotourism Development, Permit Streamlining/Assistance, Governmental Coordination and Local Government Planning Assistance. Responsible Agency: Texas General Land Office Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Flood, Hurricane Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act (GOMESA) Description: GOMESA significantly enhances oil and gas leasing activities and creates revenue sharing provisions for the oil- and gas-producing states of Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, and their coastal political subdivisions (CPSs). GOMESA funds are used for coastal conservation, restoration, and hurricane protection. The second phase of GOMESA revenue sharing began in Fiscal Year 2017 and expands the definition of qualified Outer Continental Shelf revenues to include receipts from Gulf of Mexico leases subject to withdrawal or moratoria restrictions. A revenue -sharing cap of $500 million per year for the four Gulf producing states, their CPSs and the Land and Water Conservation Fund applies from fiscal years 2016 through 2055. The $500 million cap does not apply to qualified revenues generated in those areas associated with Phase I of the GOMESA program. From 2009 through 2016, the state of Texas received $3,192,269 and its 18 CPSs received $798,036. The goal of GOMESA funding is to conserve, restore, enhance, and protect the diversity, quality, quantity, functions, and values of the state’s coastal natural resources. A primary focus for the GLO will be to protect coastal natural resources while facilitating multiple human uses of coastal resources. The GLO’s priority for the expenditures of GOMESA funds include: 1. Restoring and enhancing coastal natural resources. 2. Providing hurricane protection for coastal public resources. 3. Improving water quality. 4. Enhancing the balance between the protection of coastal natural resources and public use of those resources. 5. Improving environmental management; and 6. Mitigating coastal erosion and stabilizing shorelines. Responsible Agency: Texas General Land Office Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Flood, Hurricane, Manmade Disasters U.S. Army Corps of Engineers – Dam Safety Program Description: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is responsible for safety inspections of some federal and non-federal dams in the United States that meet the size and storage limitations specified in the National Dam Safety Act. USACE has inventoried dams and has surveyed each state and federal agency’s capabilities, practices, and regulations regarding design, construction, operation, and maintenance of the dams. USACE has also developed guidelines for inspection and evaluation of dam safety (USACE 1997). Responsible Agency: USACE Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Flood Natural Resources Damage Assessment (NRDA) Description: The natural resource trustees are the designated federal, state, and tribal agencies who are responsible for the natural resources impacted by an oil spill or hazardous substance release. They have common interests in sharing information, ideas, and expertise necessary to compensate the public for harm to natural resources as a result of oil spills and hazardous substance releases. Three Texas state agencies have been designated by the Governor to Responsible Agency: Texas Commission on Environmental Quality SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-8 2022 Update Capability Details Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Manmade Disasters Coastal and Estuarine Land Conservation Program (CELCP) Description: Lands being targeted for protection through TCELCP include coastal and estuarine areas with significant ecologic, conservation, recreation, historic, and aesthetic values. Many of these lands are threatened by conversion from their natural state to other uses. This section describes the geographic extent of the TCELCP boundary, outlines the types of lands and values to be protected, and gives an assessment of their status and trends (when known), functions and values, and potential threats. When NOAA provides funding for CELCP, the GLO provides coastal communities an opportunity to apply for up to three projects per year, with federal grants for any single project not to exceed $3 million. Responsible Agency: NOAA, Texas General Land Office Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Flood, Hurricane Texas Division of Emergency Management Description: TDEM is charged with carrying out a comprehensive, all-hazard emergency management program for the state and assisting cities, counties, and state agencies in implementing their own emergency management programs Responsible Agency: Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: All Hazards Community Health and Resource Management (CHARM) Description: CHARM is directed by the Texas Coastal Watershed Program, a part of Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service. It is a mapping application that gives local officials, stakeholders, and citizens the power to analyze growth with real -time feedback. Using the weTable tool that transforms an ordinary tabletop into an interactive computer interface, CHARM allows participants to engage the public and gather their input regarding the community’s future. The mapping application is supported by a library of data about urbanization, storm surge, conservation, public facilities, and coastal resources. The CHARM application can leverage local knowledge for better long-term planning, and is an ideal tool for communities, watersheds, and environmental projects. Responsible Agency: Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service. Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Flood Home Program Description: The Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs (TDHCA) administers the HOME Program on behalf of the state. The purpose of the program is to expand the supply of 328 State of Texas Hazard Mitigation Plan 2018 |TDEM decent, safe, affordable housing and strengthen public-private housing partnerships between units of local governments, public housing authorities, nonprofits, and for profit entities. TDHCA has set aside funding for Disaster Relief and Persons with Disabilities, among others. Responsible Agency: TDHCA Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) – Flood Insurance Program Description: TWDB is the state agency charged with collecting and disseminating water-related data, assisting with regional planning, preparing the State Water Plan, which addresses the development of the state‘s water resources. The agency also administers cost-effective financial assistance programs for the construction of water supply, wastewater treatment, flood control and agricultural water conservation projects. The TWDB has made great strides in floodplain management since the last update to the 2013 SHMP. Examples include hiring full time staff to manage the State’s Cooperating Technical Partner floodplain mapping program, developing a State Flood Plan (see below for information on both), and creating a website to assist citizens and first responders during a flood event (www.TexasFloods.org). The following is a list of programs available which may assist with flooding and the mitigation of Repetitive and Severe Repetitive Loss properties. SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-9 2022 Update Capability Details TWDB’s National Flood Insurance Program group conducts Community Assistance Visits (CAV), Community Assistance Contacts (CAC), and floodplain management training to assist communities with maintaining NFIP compliance and sound floodplain management practices. The CAV is a scheduled visit to an NFIP community for the purpose of conducting a comprehensive assessment of the community's floodplain management program and evaluating its knowledge and understanding of the requirements of the NFIP. The purpose of the CAV is also to assist the community in understanding NFIP requirements when program deficiencies are discovered. Floodplain Management 101 workshops are offered to local officials and other interested parties which cover the NFIP and various flood loss reduction techniques and strategies, such as the Community Rating System (CRS). The workshops contain training modules on the Texas Water Code, Elevation Certificates, FEMA requirements, community awareness, map reading, permitting, and ordinance comprehension. Responsible Agency: TWDB Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Flood Cooperation Technical Partners (CTP) Description: TWDB also administers the FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners (CTP) Program, which allows communities, tribal nations, universities, and regional and state agencies to be active partners in FEMA’s flood hazard mapping program. The CTP program at the state level aims to produce flood risk information through leveraging state and local funds, updated flood risk products, and coordination between statewide cooperating technical partners. Responsible Agency: TWDB Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Flood Fund Development Program Description: TWDB also administers the Fund Development Program to provide loans for the planning, design, and construction of water supply, wastewater, and flood control projects. Structural flood protection improvements may include construction of storm water retention basins, the enlargement of stream channels public beach re-nourishment, the control of coastal erosion, and the modification or reconstruction of bridges. Non-structural flood protection improvements may include the acquisition of floodplain properties for use as public open space, the acquisition and removal of buildings and residents located within a floodplain, flood warning systems, and the development of floodplain management plans. The agency conducts an environmental review for all construction projects. Responsible Agency: TWBD Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Flood Texas Natural Resources Information System (TNRIS) Description: The Texas Natural Resources Information System (TNRIS) is a division of TWDB, and is responsible for producing, archiving, and distributing geographic data to agencies, businesses, and the public. TNRIS supports hazard mitigation planning and implementation in three ways: • Provides data to organizations for planning or response activities. • Develops, locates, and prepares data for specific needs and/or projects. • Updates the State Critical Facility Database. Responsible Agency: TWDB Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: All Hazards Texas Flash Flood Coalition Description: The TFFC is an organization dedicated to decreasing the number of deaths caused by flash flooding in Texas. More than 30 representatives of higher education, media, private industry, local, state, and federal governments participate in the coalition. Its strategy is to: • Brainstorm and share ideas, data, resources, and best practices • Include a diversity of folks from all levels of education, the public, private entities, and academia • Attack the flash flood problem with mitigation, research, technology, education, awareness, warning, and communication Responsible Agency: Works with the Texas Floodplain Management Association SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-10 2022 Update Capability Details Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Flood, Flash Flood Community Hazard Analysis and Mitigation Planning Support (CHAMPS) Description: The CHAMPS reports are summarized descriptions of historical hazard events and future hazard risks for each county in Texas. These have been developed by the Texas Geographic Society in a project funded by FEMA and a dministered by TDEM. CHAMPS reports have been developed to provide local mitigation planners with data, maps, and other information they can use to support the hazard assessment portion of the mitigation planning process. Each report includes information on county populations and built environments, historical losses from multiple hazards, and expected future likelihood of more hazard events. Also included with every hazard is a comparative display showing how the number of hazard events in that county compares with the number of events in other counties for that hazard over the same timeframe. Responsible Agency: Texas Geographic Society Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: All Hazards Urban Tree Canopy Project – Resilient Landscapes Program Description: TFS has programs and funding opportunities, such as the Urban Tree Canopy Project, that address mitigation by decreasing impact from summer heat, flooding, and erosion. The Fire-Adapted Communities Program provides cost- share funds to assist in informing and preparing citizens to safely co-exist with wildland fire. The Resilient Landscapes Program provides cost-share reimbursement funds to restore healthy, fire-adapted ecosystems. The Firewise USA Program provides cost-share funds in cooperation with the National Fire Protection Administration to encourage homeowners to take individual responsibility for protecting their homes from the risk of wildfire. Responsible Agency: Texas A&M Forest Service Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Wildfires Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation Description: Licenses and regulates weather modification programs and hosts the Texas Weather Modification and Advisory Committee meetings. Cloud seeding projects designed to increase rainfall from convective cloud towers are conducted in nearly 31 million acres of Texas. In administering the Texas Weather Modification Act, TDLR’s weather modification program issues license and permits for projects using specialized aircraft and sophisticated weather radar systems at sites near Amarillo, San Angelo, and Pleasanton. TDLR also issues permit for hail suppression projects. Responsible Agency: TDLR Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Drought Texas Department of Transportation Description: TXDOT incorporates tornado safe rooms into their Safe Rest Stops program through a federally-funded Transportation Enhancement program (See Section 6.3). TXDOT also revises its design manual to include improved guidance on NFIP requirements. The agency supports the effort to certify floodplain managers by encouraging all their personnel to become certified. All engineers in TxDOT’s central hydraulics branch are certified. Responsible Agency: TxDOT Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Flood Texas Residential Safe Room Rebate Program Description: TDEM, through the Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) grants, began offering a rebate incentive for builders and homeowners to build or install residential safe rooms. This program is implemented by local un its of government that choose to administer the program through a grant provided through the HMGP or PDM program. TDEM has also published a residential safe room handbook to assist local jurisdictions with the implementation of the program. This program has raised the viability and the visibility of safe rooms in high tornado/windstorm regions of Texas. Responsible Agency: TDEM Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Tornado, Windstorm SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-11 2022 Update 5.3 ADMINISTRATIVE AND TECHNICAL CAPABILITIES Table 6-3 summarizes the administrative and technical capabilities in Galveston County. Detailed information regarding administrative and te chnical capabilities in the County and the municipalities can be found in each jurisdictional annex found in Volume II, Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes). Table 5-3. Administrative and Technical Capability – County and Local Capability Details Road and Bridge Department Description: The Road and Bridge Department is responsible for the maintenance of all county roads, road drainage, bridges and bridge class culverts and road signage. Road signs are maintained to the TMUTCD standard and inspections are completed regularly. The maintenance of county roads includes the reclamation of existing materials, placing new materials, surface treatments, and paving. The Road and Bridge Department is responsible for debris management for post disaster events and emergencies. The Department’s administrative responsibilities include providing customer service, departmental budgeting and procurement, correspondence, maintenance documentation and other administrative services. Goals & Objectives • Provide the highest level of customer service by meeting the needs of the public traveling the county roads. • Provide the highest level of quality while controlling cost and expenditures, detail maintenance records for all roads, drainage systems, bridges, and signage. • Provide assistance within Galveston County to cities, villages and other entities for road rehabilitation and drainage work through Inter-local Agreements. Responsible Agency: County Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Flood, Hurricane, Severe Winter Storm Parks and Cultural Services Department Description: Galveston County parks are host to more than a half-million residents and visitors each year and home to a wealth of wildlife. Within the Galveston County parks system there is approximately 1,500 wonderful acres of recreational parkland nestled in the county’s neighborhoods for residents and visitors to enjoy. There are currently 20 parks and three undeveloped parkland areas, 10 public boat ramps, countless amenities and an impressive assortment of indoor and outdoor rental facilities that are easily accessible and expertly managed and maintained. The Parks Department also oversees the County’s Senior Program. Responsible Agency: County Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Flood Facilities and Maintenance Department Description: The Department’s mission is to provide a safe and comfortable environment for all employees and visitors to the Galveston County facilities. To maximize the efficiency and life span of all equipment and building systems associated with the facilities. Responsible Agency: County Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: No Office of Emergency Management Description: Galveston County’s state-of-the-art emergency operations facility came online in October 2005 and was the first in the nation to combine a National Weather Service office with an emergency management department of local government. The 23,500-square-foot building was designed to withstand a Category 5 hurricane. Each county is required to maintain an emergency management program or participate in an inter-jurisdictional emergency management program as defined in Section 418.102 of the Texas Government Code. Chapter 418 of the Texas Government Code is also referred to as the Texas Disaster Act of 1975. The county is selected to be the “first SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-12 2022 Update Capability Details channel” through which municipalities request resources when their own resources have been depleted. The county forwards any resource requests beyond county capabilities to the state. The EMO facility provides Galveston County with a sustainable central location for the county during the emergency management cycle. Rather than operating from multiple facilities to get the job done, emergency operations and resource procurement can take place with county employees face-to-face rather than wasting time with phone calls and e-mails. Saving time during an emergency ultimately saves money. Responsible Agency: County Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: All Hazards Department of Engineering and Right of Way Description: The Engineering and Right of Way Department is responsible for reviewing building permit applications for consistency with the Building Code, Flood Regulations, Dune Protection, Drainage, and Erosion Response Plan. The Department enforces the Subdivision regulations and issues Road Crossing permits. Responsible Agency: County Provides Funding for Mitigation: No Hazard: Flood, Hurricane 5.4 FISCAL CAPABILITIES Fiscal capabilities are the resources that a jurisdiction has access to or is eligible to use to fund mitigation actions. Th e table below provides a list of programs, descriptions, and links for those jurisdictions seeking funding sources. This table is not intended to be a comprehensive list, but rather a tool to help begin identifying potential sources of funding. Table 5-4. Fiscal Capabilities Capability Details Federal Hazard Mitigation Grant Program Description: The HMGP is a post-disaster mitigation program. It is made available to states by FEMA after each Federal disaster declaration. The HMGP can provide up to 75% funding for hazard mitigation measures. The HMGP can be used to fund cost-effective projects that will protect public or private property in an area covered by a federal disaster declaration or that will reduce the likely damage from future disasters. Examples of projects include acquisition and demolition of structures in hazard prone areas, flood-proofing, or elevation to reduce future damage, minor structural improvements, and development of state or local standards. Projects must fit into an overall mitigation strategy for the area identified as part of a local planning effort. All applicants must have a FEMA-approved Hazard Mitigation Plan (this plan). Applicants who are eligible for the HMGP are state and local governments, certain nonprofit organizations or institutions that perform essential government services, and Indian tribes and authorized tribal organizations. Individuals or homeowners cannot apply directly for the HMGP; a local government must apply on their behalf. Applications are submitted to TDEM and placed in rank order for available funding and submitted to FEMA for final approval. Eligible projects not selected for funding are placed in an inactive status and may be considered as additional HMGP funding becomes available. For additional information regarding HMGP, please refer to: https://www.fema.gov/hazard-mitigation-grant-program Responsible Agency: FEMA SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-13 2022 Update Capability Details Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards Flood Mitigation Assistance Program Description: The FMA program combines the previous Repetitive Flood Claims and Severe Repetitive Loss Grants into one grant program. The FMA provides funding to assist states and communities in implementing measures to reduce or eliminate the long-term risk of flood damage to buildings, manufactured homes, and other structures insurable under the NFIP. The FMA is funded annually; no federal disaster declaration is required. Only NFIP insured homes and businesses are eligible for mitigation in this program. Funding for FMA is very limited and, as with the HMGP, individuals cannot apply directly for the program. Applications must come from local governments or other eligible organizations. The federal cost share for an FMA project is at least 75 percent. For the nom-federal share, at most 25 percent of the total eligible costs must be provided by a non-federal source; of this 25 percent, no more than half can be provided as in-kind contributions from third parties. At minimum, a FEMA-approved local flood mitigation plan is required before a project can be approved. The FMA funds are distributed from FEMA to the state. TDEM serves as the grantee and program administrator for the FMA program. The FMA program is detailed on the FEMA website: https://www.fema.gov/flood-mitigation- assistance-grant-program. Responsible Agency: FEMA Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Flood, Severe Weather Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities Program Description: Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) will support states, local communities, tribes, and territories as they undertake hazard mitigation projects, reducing the risks they face from disasters and natural hazards. BRIC is a new FEMA pre- disaster hazard mitigation program that replaces the existing Pre-Disaster Mitigation (PDM) program. The BRIC program guiding principles are supporting communities through capability- and capacity-building; encouraging and enabling innovation; promoting partnerships; enabling large projects; maintaining flexibility; and providing consistency. For additional information regarding the BRIC program, please refer to: https://www.fema.gov/grants/mitigation/building-resilient- infrastructure-communities Responsible Agency: FEMA Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards Extraordinary Circumstances Description: For PDM and FMA project subawards, the (FEMA) Region may apply extraordinary circumstances when justification is provided and with concurrence from FEMA Headquarters (Risk Reduction and Risk Analysis Divisions) prior to granting an exception. If this exception is granted, a local mitigation plan must be approved by FEMA within 12 months of the award of the project subaward to that community. For HMGP, PDM, and FMA, extraordinary circumstances exist when a determination is made by the Applicant and FEMA that the proposed project is consistent with the priorities and strategies identified in the State (Standard or Enhanced) Mitigation Plan and that the jurisdiction meets at least one of the criteria below. If the jurisdiction does not meet at least one of these criteria, the Region must coordinate with FEMA Headquarters (Risk Reduction and Risk Analysis Divisions) for HMGP; however, for PDM and FMA the Region must coordinate and seek concurrence prior to granting an exception: •The jurisdiction meets the small, impoverished community criteria (see Part VIII, B.2). •The jurisdiction has been determined to have had insufficient capacity due to lack of available funding, staffing, or other necessary expertise to satisfy the mitigation planning requirement prior to the current disaster or application deadline. SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-14 2022 Update Capability Details •The jurisdiction has been determined to have been at low risk from hazards because of low frequency of occurrence or minimal damage from previous occurrences as a result of sparse development. •The jurisdiction experienced significant disruption from a declared disaster or another event that impacts its ability to complete the mitigation planning process prior to award or final approval of a project award. •The jurisdiction does not have a mitigation plan for reasons beyond the control of the State, federally-recognized tribe, or local community, such as Disaster Relief Fund restrictions that delay FEMA from granting a subaward prior to the expiration of the local or Tribal Mitigation Plan. For HMGP, PDM, and FMA, the Applicant must provide written justification that identifies the specific criteria or circumstance listed above, explains why there is no longer an impediment to satisfying the mitigation planning requirement, and identifies the sp ecific actions or circumstances that eliminated the deficiency. When an HMGP project funding is awarded under extraordinary circumstances, the Recipient shall acknowledge in writing to the Regional Administrator that a plan will be completed within 12 months of the subaward. The Recipient must provide a work plan for completing the local or Tribal Mitigation Plan, including milestones and a timetable, to ensure that the jurisdiction will complete the plan in the required time. This requirement shall be incorporated into the award (both the planning and project subaward agreements, if a planning subaward is also awarded). Responsible Agency: FEMA Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards Individual Assistance Description: Individual Assistance (IA) provides help for homeowners, renters, businesses, and some non-profit entities after disasters occur. This program is largely funded by the U.S. Small Business Administration. For homeowners and renters, those who suffered uninsured or underinsured losses could be eligible for a Home Disaster Loan to repair or replace damaged real estate or personal property. Renters are eligible for loans to cover personal property losses. Individuals are allowed to borrow up to $200,000 to repair or repla ce real estate, $40,000 to cover losses to personal property, and an additional 20 percent for mitigation. For businesses, loans could be made to repair or replace disaster damages to property owned by the business, including real estate, machinery and equipment, inventory, and supplies. Businesses of any size are eligible. Non-profit organizations, such as charities, churches, and private universities are eligible. An Economic Injury Disaster Loan provides necessary working capital until normal operations resume after a physical disaster but are restricted by law to small businesses only. IA is detailed on the FEMA website: https://www.fema.gov/individual- disaster-assistance. Responsible Agency: FEMA Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards Public Assistance Description: Public Assistance (PA) provides cost reimbursement aid to local governments (state, county, local, municipal authorities, and school districts) and certain non-profit agencies that were involved in disaster response and recovery programs or that suffered loss or damage to facilities or property used to deliver government-like services. This program is largely funded by FEMA with both local and state matching contributions required. PA is detailed on the FEMA website: https://www.fema.gov/public-assistance-local-state-tribal-and- non-profit. Responsible Agency: FEMA Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-15 2022 Update Capability Details Department of Homeland Security Grant Program Description: The Homeland Security Grant Program (HSGP) plays an important role in the implementation of the National Preparedness System by supporting the building, sustainment, and delivery of core capabilities essential to achieving the National Preparedness Goal of a secure and resilient nation. In FY 2019, the total amount of funds available under HSGP was $1.095 billion. HSGP is comprised of three interconnected grant programs including the State Homeland Security Program, Urban Areas Security Initiative (UASI), and the Operation Stonegarden. Together, these grant programs fund a range of preparedness activities, including planning, organization, equipment purchase, training, exercises, and management and administration. Additional information regarding HSGP is available on the website: https://www.fema.gov/homeland-security-grant-program. Responsible Agency: FEMA Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards Fire Management Assistance Grant Program Description: Assistance for the mitigation, management, and control of fires on publicly or privately-owned forests or grasslands that threaten such destruction as would constitute a major disaster. Provides a 75% federal cost share and the state pays the remaining 25% for actual cost. Information on this program is available on the website: https://www.fema.gov/fire-management-assistance-grant-program. Responsible Agency: FEMA Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Wildfire Assistance to Firefighters Grant Program Description: The primary goal of the Assistance to Firefighters Grants is to enhance the safety of the public and firefighters with respect to fire- related hazards by providing direct financial assistance to eligible fire departments, nonaffiliated Emergency Medical Services organizations, and State Fire Training Academies. This funding is for critically needed resources to equip and train emergency personnel to recognized standards, enhance operations efficiencies, foster interoperability, and support community resilience. Information regarding this grant program is available on the website: https://www.fema.gov/welcome-assistance-firefighters-grant- program. Responsible Agency: FEMA Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Wildfire High Hazard Potential Dams Grant Program Description: The Rehabilitation of High Hazard Potential Dams Grant Program provides technical, planning, design, and construction assistance in the form of grants to non-Federal governmental organizations or nonprofit organizations for rehabilitation of eligible high hazard potential dams. Information regarding this program is available on the website: https://www.grants.gov/web/grants/view- opportunity.html?oppId=316238. Responsible Agency: FEMA Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Flood Small Business Administration Loan Description: The Small Business Administration (SBA) provides low-interest disaster loans to homeowners, renters, business of all sizes, and most private nonprofit organizations. SBA disaster loans can be used to repair or replace the following items damaged or destroyed in a declared disaster: real estate, personal property, machinery and equipment, and inventory and business assets. SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-16 2022 Update Capability Details Homeowners could apply for up to $200,000 to replace or repair their primary residence. Renters and homeowners could borrow up to $40,000 to replace or repair personal property-such as clothing, furniture, cars, and appliances that were damaged or destroyed in a disaster. Physical disaster loans of up to $2 million are available to qualified businesses or most private nonprofit organizations. Additional information regarding SBA loans is available on the SBA website: https://www.sba.gov/managing-business/running- business/emergency-preparedness/disaster-assistance. Responsible Agency: SBA Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards Community Development Block Grant Program Description: CDBG are federal funds intended to provide low and moderate-income households with viable communities, including decent housing, a suitable living environment, and expanded economic opportunities. Eligible activities include community facilities and improvements, roads and infrastructure, housing rehabilitation and preservation, development activities, public services, economic development, and planning and administration. Public improvements could include flood and drainage improvements. In limited instances and during the times of “urgent need” (e.g., post disaster) as defined by the CDBG National Objectives, CDBG funding could be used to acquire a property located in a floodplain that was severely damaged by a recent flood, demolish a structure severely damaged by an earthquake, or repair a public facility severely damaged by a hazard event. Additional information regarding CDBG is available on the website: https://www.hudexchange.info/programs/cdbg-entitlement/. Responsible Agency: HUD Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards Federal Highway Administration-Emergency Relief Description: The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Emergency Relief is a grant program through the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) that can be used for repair or reconstruction of federal-aid highways and roads on federal lands that have suffered serious damage as a result of a disaster. New Jersey Department of Transportation serves as the liaison between local municipalities and FHWA. Additional information regarding the FHWA Emergency Relief Program is available on the website: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/programadmin/erelief.cfm. Responsible Agency: U.S. DOT Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards Federal Transit Administration - Emergency Relief Description: The Federal Transit Authority (FTA) Emergency Relief is a grant program that funds capital projects to protect, repair, reconstruct, or replace equipment and facilities of public transportation systems. Administered by the Federal Transit Authority at the U.S. DOT and directly allocated to Metropolitan Transit Authority (MTA) and Port Authority, this transportation-specific fund was created as an alternative to FEMA PA. Currently, a total of $5.2 billion has been allocated to New Jersey-related entities. Additional information regarding the FTA Emergency Relief Program is available on the website: https://www.transit.dot.gov/funding/grant- programs/emergency-relief-program/emergency-relief-program. Responsible Agency: U.S. DOT Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-17 2022 Update Capability Details Disaster Housing Program Description: Emergency assistance for housing, including minor repair of home to establish livable conditions, mortgage, and rental assistance available through the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Information on this program is available on the website: https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/public_indian_housing/publications/dhap. Responsible Agency: HUD Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards HOME Investment Partnerships Program Description: Grants to local and state government and consortia for permanent and transitional housing, (including financial support for property acquisition and rehabilitation for low income persons). Information on this program is available on the website: https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/comm_planning/affordablehousing/programs/home/. Responsible Agency: HUD Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards HUD Disaster Recovery Assistance Description: Grants to fund gaps in available recovery assistance after disasters (including mitigation). Information on this program is available on the website: https://www.hud.gov/info/disasterresources. Responsible Agency: HUD Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards Section 108 Loan Guarantee Description: Enables states and local governments participating in the CDBG program to obtain federally guaranteed loans for disaster-distressed areas. Information on this program is available on the website: https://www.hudexchange.info/programs/section-108/. Responsible Agency: HUD Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards Smart Growth Implementation Assistance program Description: The Smart Growth Implementation Assistance (SGIA) program through the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) focuses on complex or cutting-edge issues, such as stormwater management, code revision, transit-oriented development, affordable housing, infill development, corridor planning, green building, and climate change. Applicants can submit proposals under 4 categories: community resilience to disasters, job creation, the role of manufactured homes in sustainable neighborhood design, or medical and social service facilities siting. Information on this program is available on the website: https://www.epa.gov/smartgrowth. Responsible Agency: EPA Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards Partners for Fish and Wildlife Description: Financial and technical assistance to private landowners interested in pursuing restoration projects affecting wetlands and riparian habitats. Information on this program is available on the website: https://www.fws.gov/partners/. Responsible Agency: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Natural Hazards Description: Investing in critical road, rail, transit, and port projects across the nation. Information on this program is available on the website: https://www.transportation.gov/tags/tiger-grants. SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-18 2022 Update Capability Details Transportation Investment Generating Economic Recovery (TIGER) Responsible Agency: U.S. DOT Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards Community Facilities Direct Loan & Grant Program Description: This program provides affordable funding to develop essential community facilities in rural areas. An essential community facility is defined as a facility that provides an essential service to the local community for the orderly development of the community in a primarily rural area, and does not include private, commercial, or business undertakings. Information on this program is available on the website: https://www.rd.usda.gov/programs-services/community-facilities-direct-loan-grant-program. Responsible Agency: USDA Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards Emergency Loan Program Description: USDA’s Farm Service Agency provides emergency loans to help producers recover from production and physical losses due to drought, flooding, other natural disasters, or quarantine. Information on this program is available on the website: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/farm-loan-programs/emergency-farm-loans/index. Responsible Agency: USDA Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Natural Hazards Emergency Watershed Protection program Description: The Emergency Watershed Protection (EWP) program provides assistance to relieve imminent hazards to life and property caused by floods, fires, drought, windstorms, and other natural occurrences through the Natural Resources Conservation Service. Information on this program is available on the website: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/main/national/programs/landscape/ewpp/. Responsible Agency: USDA Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Natural Hazards Financial Assistance Description: Financial assistance to help plan and implement conservation practices that address natural resource concerns or opportunities to help save energy, improve soil, water, plant, air, animal and related resources on agricultural lands and non-industrial private forest land. Information on this program is available on the website: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/main/national/programs/financial/. Responsible Agency: NRCS Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards Emergency Management Performance Grants (EMPG) Program Description: Assist local, tribal, territorial, and state governments in enhancing and sustaining all-hazards emergency management capabilities. Information on this program is available on the website: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-management-performance-grant-program. Responsible Agency: U.S. DHS Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Hazards Reimbursement for Firefighting on Federal Property Description: Provides reimbursement only for direct costs and losses over and above normal operating costs. Information on this program is available on the website: https://www.usfa.fema.gov/grants/firefighting_federal_property.html. Responsible Agency: U.S. DHS SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-19 2022 Update Capability Details Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Wildfire Land & Water Conservation Fund Description: Matching grants to states and local governments for the acquisition and development of public outdoor recreation areas and facilities (as well as funding for shared federal land acquisition and conservation strategies). Information on this program is available on the website: https://www.nps.gov/subjects/lwcf/index.htm. Responsible Agency: National Park Service Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: All Natural Hazards State Texas Water Development Board Flood Funding Description: The TWDB offers a variety of cost-effective loan and grant programs that provide for the planning, acquisition, design, and construction of water related infrastructure and other water quality improvements Responsible Agency: Texas Water Development Board Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Flooding Texas A&M Forest Service Prescribed Burn Grants Description: Texas A&M Forest Service offers grants to landowners to complete prescribed fires on private land. Each grant targets landowners in different priority areas across the state. Responsible Agency: Texas A&M Forest Service Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Wildfire Flood Control Dam Infrastructure Projects - Supplemental Funding Description: Projects to repair and rehabilitate flood control structures across Texas will now be funded due to a $150 million appropriations bill legislators passed this session. Responsible Agency: Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Flooding, Dam Failure Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) Description: FIF program provides financial assistance in the form of loans and grants for flood control, flood mitigation, and drainage projects Responsible Agency: Texas Water Development Board Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Flooding TEXAS COASTAL MANAGEMENT PROGRAM GRANT Description: Funding for projects that address environmental concerns and promote economic development within the Texas coastal zone. Responsible Agency: Texas General Land Office Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Erosion and Flooding Texas Farm and Ranch Lands Conservation Program (TFRLCP) Description: Funding conserves natural resources by protecting working lands from fragmentation and development. TFRLCP maintains and enhances the ecological and agricultural productivity of these lands through Agricultural Conservation Easements. Responsible Agency: Texas Parks and Wildlife SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-20 2022 Update Capability Details Provides Funding for Mitigation: Yes Hazard: Flooding SECTION 5: CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 5-21 2022 Update 5.5 PLAN INTEGRATION Described earlier in this section and within each annex, participating jurisdictions identified integration of hazard risk management into their existing planning, regulatory, and operational/administrative framework (“integration capabilities”) and intended integration promotion (integration actions). Volume II, Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes) provides details on how each jurisdiction integrates hazard mitigation into their existing capabilities. 5.5.1 Integration Process Hazard mitigation is a sustained action taken to reduce or eliminate the long-term risk to human life and property from hazards. Integrating hazard mitigation into a community’s existing plans, policies, codes, and programs leads to development patterns that do not increase risk from known hazards or leads to redevelopment that reduces risk from known hazards. The Galveston County Planning Partnership was tasked with identifying how hazard mitigation is integrated into existing planning mechanisms. Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annex es) details how this is done for each participating municipality and the County. During this process, many municipalities recognized the importance and benefits of incorporating hazard mitigation into future municipal planning and regulatory processes and have added new mitigation actions to support this effort. The Planning Partnership representatives will continue to incorporate mitigation planning as an integral component of daily government operations. Planning Partnership representatives will continue to work with local government officials to integrate the newly adopted hazard mitigation goals and actions into the general operations of government and partner organizations. Further, the sample adoption resolution presented in Appendix A (Plan Adoption) includes a resolution item stating the intent of the local governing body to incorporate mitigation planning as an integral component of government and partner operations. By doing so, the Planning Partnership anticipates that: 1. Hazard mitigation planning will be formally recognized as an integral part of overall planning and emergency management efforts. 2. The Hazard Mitigation Plan, Master Plans, Emergency Management Plans, and other relevant planning mechanisms will become mutually supportive documents that work in concert to meet the goals and needs of County residents. Section 7 (Plan Maintenance) provides for additional information on the implementation of the mitigation plan through existing programs. SECTION 6: MITIGATION STRATEGY Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 6-1 2022 Update SECTION 6. MITIGATION STRATEGY 6.1 INTRODUCTION This section presents mitigation actions for Galveston County to reduce potential exposure and losses identified as concerns in the Risk Assessment (Section 5). The County and planning partnership reviewed the risk assessment to identify and develop these mitigation actions, which are presented herein. This section includes: • Background and Past Mitigation Accomplishments • General Mitigation Planning Approach • Strengths, Weaknesses, Obstacles, and Opportunities • Review and Update of Mitigation Goals and Objectives • Plan Integration • Mitigation Strategy Development and Update 6.2 BACKGROUND AND PAST MITIGATION ACCOMPLISHMENTS In accordance with DMA 2000 requirements, a discussion regarding past mitigation activities and an overview of past efforts is provided as a foundation for understanding the mitigation goals, objectives, and activities outlined in this HMP. The County, through previous and ongoing hazard mitigation activities, has demonstrated that it is pro-active in protecting its physical assets and citizens against losses from natural and human-caused hazards. Examples of previous and ongoing actions, projects and capabilities include the following: • The County participated in the development of the 2017 Mitigation Plan and facilitated the 2022 Update, which included the participation of all municipal governments in the County. The current planning process represents the regulatory five-year local plan update process. • All 11 municipalities in Galveston County participate in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which requires the adoption of FEMA floodplain mapping and certain minimum construction standards for building within the floodplain. • Currently, 7 of the 11 municipalities in Galveston County are participants in NFIP Community Rating System (CRS) program. o Dickinson, 8 o Friendswood, 7 o Galveston (City), 6 o Jamaica Beach, 8 o Kemah, 8 o League City, 5 o Tiki Island, 7 • Many municipalities in Galveston County have adopted regulatory standards regarding land-use and zoning that exceed minimum requirements and provide the communities with greater capability to manage development without increasing hazard risk and vulnerability. Hazard mitigation reduces the potential impacts of, and costs associated with, emergency and disaster-related events. Mitigation actions address a range of impacts, including impacts on the population, property, the economy, and the environment. Mitigation actions can include activities such as: revisions to land-use planning, training and education, and structural and nonstructural safety measures. SECTION 6: MITIGATION STRATEGY Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 6-2 2022 Update • Municipalities have participated on a limited basis in available mitigation grant funding opportunities to implement mitigation projects, including the following: o Elevation of private properties located in riverine and coastal areas o Mitigation reconstruction o Stormwater management in League City – culverts, diversions, storage, and detention/retention basins o Generators o The County is a recipient of a 2019 PDM grant for preparation of the 2022 Hazard Mitigation Plan • The County and municipalities have implemented mitigation actions to protect critical facilities and infrastructure throughout the planning area. These actions and others were identified in the County’s Participation in the 2017 Hazard Mitigation Plan. • TDEM supports Galveston County communities reduce their risk and increase their resilience. They provide a comprehensive program to support local jurisdictions as they assess the risks they face, plan to mitigate them, and fund those plans to implement mitigation projects that reduce risk across the County. • In 2020, the County and local municipalities responded to and worked to mitigate the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic through education of the public, enforcement of local and state social distancing and masking measures, and establishment of best practices to slow the spread of Covid-19. These past and ongoing activities have contributed to the County’s understanding of its hazard preparedness and future mitigation activity needs, costs, and benefits. These efforts provide an ongoing foundation for the planning partnership to use in developing this HMP update. 6.3 GENERAL MITIGATION PLANNING APPROACH The overall approach used to update the County and local hazard mitigation strategies are based on FEMA and State of Texas regulations and guidance regarding local mitigation plan development, including: • DMA 2000 regulations, specifically 44 CFR 201.6 (local mitigation planning). • FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Handbook, March 2013. • FEMA Local Mitigation Plan Review Guide, October 1, 2011. • FEMA Integrating Hazard Mitigation into Local Planning, March 1, 2013. • FEMA Plan Integration: Linking Local Planning Efforts, July 2015. • FEMA Mitigation Planning How-To Guide #3, Identifying Mitigation Actions, and Implementing Strategies (FEMA 386-3), February 2013. • FEMA Mitigation Ideas: A Resource for Reducing Risk to Natural Hazards, January 2013. The mitigation strategy update approach includes the following steps that are further detailed in later subsections of this section: • Section 6.4 – Strengths, Weaknesses, Obstacles, and Opportunities (SWOO) exercise • Section 6.5 – Review and update mitigation goals and objectives. • Section 6.6 - Develop and prepare a mitigation strategy, including: o Review of the 2017 HMP mitigation actions o Identification of progress on previous county and local mitigation strategies o 2022 HMP Mitigation Action Plan o Mitigation best practices o Mitigation strategy evaluation and prioritization; and SECTION 6: MITIGATION STRATEGY Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 6-3 2022 Update o Benefit/cost review. 6.4 STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES, OBSTACLES, AND OPPORTUNITIES EXERCISE A Strengths, Weakness, Obstacles and Opportunities exercise (SWOO) was completed by the planning partnerships. Participants were asked to fill out the SWOO for each of the hazards of concern for the 2022 HMP update. The Planning partnership was asked to begin the exercise by identifying county, local, and stakeholder strengths to mitigate the risk and potential future impacts of the hazards. Next, the weaknesses, challenges, and obstacles the planning area faces to reduce each hazard’s risk were identified. To conclude the discussion of each high-ranked hazard, the meeting attendees were asked to identify potential opportunities for enhanced mitigation. The results were compiled and presented to the planning partnership at the risk assessment presentation. The results were also used by the participants to help identify capabilities and potential mitigation actions. The following summarizes the general categories of potential opportunities identified during the exercise: • Conduct surveys and assessments to provide current conditions so existing problems can be addressed before they become more severe. • Standardized public information and outreach for the County and municipalities. • Shared services throughout the County. • The need for training for county and municipal staff. 6.5 REVIEW AND UPDATE OF MITIGATION GOALS AND OBJECTIVES This section documents the efforts to update the guiding principles, and hazard mitigation goals and objectives established to reduce or avoid long-term vulnerabilities to the identified hazards. 6.5.1 Goals and Objectives According to CFR 201.6(c)(3)(i): “The hazard mitigation strategy shall include a description of mitigation goals to reduce or avoid long-term vulnerabilities to the identified hazards.” Further, FEMA mitigation planning guidance recommends establishing objectives to better tie mitigation goals to specific mitigation strategies (e.g. projects, activities, and initiatives). The goals established in the 2017 Galveston County Multi- Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan were presented to the Steering Committee and Planning Partnership for review and amendment throughout the planning process. This review was made with consideration of the hazard events and losses since the 2017 plan, the updated hazard profiles and vulnerability assessment, and the goals and objectives established in the updated 2018 State HMP. The Steering Committee met on December 2, 2021 to review the 2017 goals and objectives and provided input on updated goals and objectives. These updates were presented to the Planning Partnership during the August 2021 Mitigation Strategy Workshop. As a result of these efforts, Table 6-1 presents Galveston County’s updated FEMA defines Goals as general guidelines that explain what should be achieved. Goals are usually broad, long-term, policy statements, and represent a global vision. FEMA defines Objectives as strategies or implementation steps to attain mitigation goals. Unlike goals, objectives are specific and measurable, where feasible. FEMA defines Mitigation Actions as specific actions that help to achieve the mitigation goals and objectives. SECTION 6: MITIGATION STRATEGY Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 6-4 2022 Update goals and objectives for the 2022 HMP update. Italicized text indicates the updates made to the goals and objectives from the 2017 HMP. Table 6-1. Galveston County 2022 Hazard Mitigation Plan Goals and Objectives 2022 HMP Update Goals 2022 HMP Update Objectives Goal 1: Minimize loss of life, injury, damage to property, the economy, and natural systems from natural and human-caused hazard events 1.1: Protect the life, health, and safety of residents 1.2: Protect existing/new critical facilities and community lifelines 1.3: Enforce regulatory measures to ensure that current and new development will not put people in harm’s way or increase threats to existing properties. 1.4: Provide backup power to critical facilities and community lifelines 1.5: Minimize impacts from all hazards 1.6: Build, enhance, and support partnerships to continuously become less vulnerable to hazards Goal 2: Maintain and enhance emergency management/ mitigation capabilities 2.1: Update/develop plans, studies, and mapping for all hazards of concern for the County 2.2: Incorporate/improve hazard mitigation strategies into ordinances, plans and polices 2.3: Conduct/develop drills/training for all hazards of concern for the County 2.4: Implement and maintain the Galveston County Multi‐Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 2.5: Participate in programs that promote hazard mitigation strategies 2.6: Build, obtain, and maintain critical facilities, community lifelines, and equipment Goal 3: Enhance and Maintain public education and awareness activities 3.1: Expand Public Outreach Campaigns for all hazards 3.2: Promote and encourage disaster preparedness planning of appropriate hazard mitigation measures for families Goal 4: Address long-term vulnerabilities from high hazard dams 4.1: Ensure dam infrastructure is routinely inspected and maintained. 4.2: Ensure Emergency Action Plans are developed and updated. 4.3: Support the identification and access to funding to repair, replace, or decommission dams. 6.6 MITIGATION STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT AND UPDATE As required by FEMA, the County and participating municipalities completed a comprehensive evaluation of the mitigation strategies and actions from the 2017 HMP and reported on the status of each. Their update may be found in each jurisdictional annex (Section 9). In addition, the County and participating municipalities were provided the opportunity to include new strategies or actions to include in the 2022 HMP Update. New action s were prioritized to ensure they are cost-effective, environmentally sound, and technically feasible using the methodology outlined below. 6.6.1 Review of the 2017 HMP Mitigation Action Plan To evaluate progress on local mitigation actions, the planning consultant met with each participant to discuss the status of the mitigation actions identified in the 2017 plan. For each action, jurisdictions were asked to provide the status of each action (No Progress, In Progress, Ongoing Capability, Discontinue, or Completed) and provide review comments on each. Jurisdictions were requested to quantify the extent of progress and provide reasons for the level of progress or why actions were being discontinued. Each jurisdictional annex in Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes) provides a table identifying the jurisdiction’s prior mitigation strategy, the status of those actions and initiatives, and their disposition within their updated strategy. Local mitigation actions identified as Complete, and those actions identified as Discontinued, were removed from the updated strategies. Local mitigation actions identified as an Ongoing Capability were incorporated into the capability assessment of each jurisdictional annex. Those actions identified as No Progress or In Progress that remain a priority for the jurisdiction, have been carried forward into the updated mitigation strategy. Actions identified as Ongoing Capabilities which are fully integrated into the normal operational and SECTION 6: MITIGATION STRATEGY Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 6-5 2022 Update administrative framework of the community have been identified within the capabilities section of each annex and removed from the updated mitigation strategy. At the September kick-off meeting and during subsequent local- level planning meetings (phone, email), all participating jurisdictions were requested to identify mitigation activities completed, ongoing, and potential/proposed. As new potential mitigation actions, projects, or initiatives became evident during the plan update process, including as part of the risk assessment update and as identified through the public and stakeholder outreach process detailed in Section 2 (Planning Process), jurisdictions were made aware of these either through direct communication (local meetings, email, phone), at Steering and Planning Committee meetings, or via their draft jurisdictional annexes. 6.6.2 Identification and Analysis of Mitigation Techniques Concerted efforts were made to assure that municipalities develop updated mitigation strategies that included activities and initiatives covering the range of mitigation action types described in recent FEMA planning guidance (FEMA “Local Mitigation Planning Handbook” March 2013), specifically: • Local Plans and Regulations - These actions include government authorities, policies or codes that influence the way land and buildings are being developed and built. • Structure and Infrastructure Projects - These actions involve modifying existing structures and infrastructure to protect them from a hazard or remove them from a hazard area. This could apply to public or private structures as well as critical facilities and infrastructure. This type of action also involves projects to construct manmade structures to reduce the impact of hazards. • Natural Systems Protection - These are actions that minimize damage and losses, and also preserve or restore the functions of natural systems. • Education and Awareness Programs - These are actions to inform and educate citizens, elected officials, and property owners about hazards and potential ways to mitigate them. These actions may also include participation in national programs, such as the National Flood Insurance Program and Community Rating System, StormReady (NOAA) and Firewise (NFPA) Communities. 6.6.3 2022 HMP Mitigation Action Plan To help support the selection of an appropriate, risk-based mitigation strategy, each annex provides a summary of hazard vulnerabilities identified during the plan update process, either directly by municipal representatives, through review of available county and local plans and reports, and through the hazard profiling and vulnerability assessment process. In December 2021, the planning partnership participated in a mitigation strategy development workshop, supplemented by emails and phone calls between jurisdictions and the contract consultant, for all participating jurisdictions to support the development of focused problem statements based on the impacts of natural hazards in the county and their communities. These problem statements were intended to provide a detailed description of the problem area, including its impacts to the municipality/jurisdiction; past damages; loss of service; etc. An effort was made to include the street address of the property/project location, adjacent streets, water bodies, and well-known structures as well as a brief description of existing conditions (topography, terrain, hydrology) of Throughout the planning process, the planning consultant worked directly with each community (phone, email) to assist with the development and update of their annex and include mitigation strategies, focusing on identifying well-defined, implementable projects with a careful consideration of benefits (risk reduction, losses avoided), costs, and possible funding sources (including mitigation grant programs). SECTION 6: MITIGATION STRATEGY Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 6-6 2022 Update the site. These problem statements formed a bridge between the hazard risk assessment which quantifies impacts to each community with the development of actionable mitigation strategies. As discussed within the hazard profiles in Section 4.3 (Risk Assessment), the long-term effects of climate change are anticipated to exacerbate the impacts of weather-related hazards including flood, hurricanes and tropical storm, nor’easter, severe weather, severe winter weather and wildfire. By way of addressing these climate change-sensitive hazards within their local mitigation strategies and integration actions, communities are working to evaluate and recognize these long-term implications and potential impacts, and to incorporate in planning and capital improvement updates. A strong effort has been made to better focus local mitigation strategies to clearly defined, readily implementable projects and initiatives that meet the definition or characteristics of mitigation. Broadly defined mitigation actions were eliminated from the updated strategy unless accompanied by discrete actions, projects, or initiatives. Certain continuous or ongoing strategies that represent programs that are fully integrated into the normal operational and administrative framework of the community have been identified within the capabilities section of each annex and removed from the updated mitigation strategy. Overall, a comprehensive range of specific mitigation initiatives were considered by each plan participant to pursue in the future to reduce the effects of hazards. Some of these initiatives may be previous actions carried forward for this plan update. These initiatives are dependent upon available funding (grants and local match availability) and may be modified or omitted at any time based on the occurrence of new hazard events and changes in municipal priorities. Throughout the course of the plan update process, additional regional and county-level mitigation actions were identified by the following processes: • Review of the results and findings of the updated risk assessment. • Review of available regional and county plans reports and studies. • Direct input from county departments and other county and regional agencies • Input received through the public and stakeholder outreach process. 6.6.4 Mitigation Best Practices Catalogs of hazard mitigation best practices were developed that present a broad range of alternatives to be considered for use in Galveston County, in compliance with 44 CFR Section 201.6(c)(3)(ii). One catalog was developed for each natural hazard of concern evaluated in this plan; referred to as Appendix F (Mitigation Strategy Supplementary Data). The catalogs present alternatives that are categorized in two ways: • By whom would have responsibility for implementation: o Individuals – personal scale o Businesses – corporate scale o Government – government scale • By what each of the alternatives would do: o Manipulate the hazard o Reduce exposure to the hazard To assist with the development of mitigation actions, municipalities were provided with the following: •2022 HMP goals and objectives •2017 HMP mitigation strategy •Risk assessment results •Outcome of the SWOO •Mitigation catalog •Stakeholder and public input (e.g. citizen and stakeholder survey results) •FEMA resources SECTION 6: MITIGATION STRATEGY Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 6-7 2022 Update o Reduce vulnerability to the hazard o Build local capacity to respond to or be prepared for the hazard The alternatives presented include actions that will mitigate current risk from hazards and actions that will help reduce risk from changes in the impacts of these hazards resulting from climate change. Hazard mitigation actions recommended in this plan were selected from among the alternatives presented in the catalog, as well as other resources made available to all jurisdictions (i.e., FEMA’s Mitigation Ideas). The catalog provides a baseline of mitigation alternatives that are backed by a planning process, are consistent with the established goals and objectives, and are within the capabilities of the planning partners to implement. Some of these actions may not be feasible based on the selection criteria identified for this plan. The purpose of the catalog was to provide a list of what could be considered to reduce risk from natural hazards within the planning area. Actions in the catalog that are not included for the partnership’s action plan were not selected for one or more of the following reasons: • The action is not feasible • The action is already being implemented • There is an apparently more cost-effective alternative • The action does not have public or political support. 6.6.5 Mitigation Strategy Evaluation and Prioritization Section 201.c.3.iii of 44 CFR requires an action plan describing how the actions identified will be prioritized. Recent FEMA planning guidance (March 2013) identifies a modified STAPLEE (Social, Technical, Administrative, Political, Legal, Economic, and Environmental) mitigation action evaluation methodology that uses a set of 10 evaluation criteria suited to the purposes of hazard mitigation strategy evaluation. This method provides a systematic approach that considers the opportunities and constraints of implementing a particular mitigation action. Based on this guidance, the Steering Committee has adopted and applied an action evaluation and prioritization methodology which includes an expanded set of 14 criteria to include the consideration of cost-effectiveness, availability of funding, anticipated timeline, and if the action addresses multiple hazards. The 14 evaluation/prioritization criteria used in the 2022 update process are: 1) Life Safety – How effective will the action be at protecting lives and preventing injuries? 2) Property Protection – How significant will the action be at eliminating or reducing damage to structures and infrastructure? 3) Cost-Effectiveness – Are the costs to implement the project or initiative commensurate with the benefits achieved? 4) Technical – Is the mitigation action technically feasible? Is it a long-term solution? Eliminate actions that, from a technical standpoint, will not meet the goals. 5) Political – Is there overall public support for the mitigation action? Is there the political will to support it? 6) Legal – Does the municipality have the authority to implement the action? 7) Fiscal – Can the project be funded under existing program budgets (i.e., is this initiative currently budgeted for)? Or would it require a new budget authorization or funding from another source such as grants? 8) Environmental – What are the potential environmental impacts of the action? Will it comply with environmental regulations? SECTION 6: MITIGATION STRATEGY Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 6-8 2022 Update 9) Social – Will the proposed action adversely affect one segment of the population? Will the action disrupt established neighborhoods, break up voting districts, or cause the relocation of lower income people? 10) Administrative – Does the jurisdiction have the personnel and administrative capabilities to implement the action and maintain it or will outside help be necessary? 11) Multi-hazard – Does the action reduce the risk to multiple hazards? 12) Timeline – Can the action be completed in less than 5 years (within our planning horizon)? 13) Local Champion – Is there a strong advocate for the action or project among the jurisdiction’s staff, governing body, or committees that will support the action’s implementation? 14) Other Local Objectives – Does the action advance other local objectives, such as capital improvements, economic development, environmental quality, or open space preservation? Does it support the policies of other plans and programs? Specifically, for each mitigation action, the jurisdictions were asked to assign a numeric rank (-1, 0, or 1) for each of the 14 evaluation criteria, defined as follows: • 1 = Highly effective or feasible • 0 = Neutral • -1 = Ineffective or not feasible Further, jurisdictions were asked to provide a summary of the rationale behind the numeric rankings assi gned, as applicable. The numerical results were totaled to assist each jurisdiction in selecting mitigation actions for the updated plan. As step one in the prioritization process, actions that had a numerical value between 0 and 4 were initially prioritized as low; actions with numerical values between 5 and 9 were initially categorized as me dium; and actions with numerical values between 10 and 14 were initially categorized as high. As step two, jurisdictions were then asked to consider the benefits and costs, as well as the desired timeline for implementation and project completion timeline when finalizing each action’s priority as high/medium/low. These attributes are included in the mitigation strategy table and for FEMA-eligible projects in the mitigation worksheets (Section 9 – Jurisdictional Annexes). For the plan update there has been an effort to develop more clearly defined and action-oriented mitigation strategies. These local strategies include projects and initiatives that are seen by the community as the most effective approaches to advance their local mitigation goals and objectives within their capabilities. In addition, each jurisdiction was asked to develop problem statements. With this process, participating jurisdictions were able to develop action-oriented and achievable mitigation strategies. 6.6.6 Benefit/Cost Review Section 201.6.c.3iii of 44CFR requires the prioritization of the action plan to emphasize the extent to which benefits are maximized according to a cost/benefit review of the proposed projects and their associated costs. Stated otherwise, cost-effectiveness is one of the criteria that must be applied during the evaluation and prioritization of all actions comprising the overall mitigation strategy. The benefit/cost review applied in for the evaluation and prioritization of projects and initiatives in this HMP update process was qualitative; that is, it does not include the level of detail required by FEMA for project grant eligibility under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP), Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) and Pre- Disaster Mitigation (PDM) grant programs. For all actions identified in the local strategies, jurisdictions have identified both the costs and benefits associated with project, action, or initiative. SECTION 6: MITIGATION STRATEGY Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 6-9 2022 Update Costs are the total cost for the action or project, and may include administrative costs, construction costs (including engineering, design and permitting), and maintenance costs. Benefits are the savings from losses avoided attributed to the implementation of the project, and may include life-safety, structure and infrastructure damages, loss of service or function, and economic and environmental damage and losses. When possible, jurisdictions were asked to identify the actual or estimated dollar value for project costs and associated benefits. Having defined costs and benefits allows a direct comparison of benefits versus costs, and a quantitative evaluation of project cost-effectiveness. Often, however, numerical costs and/or benefits have not been identified or may be impossible to quantitatively assess. For the purposes of this planning process, jurisdictions were tasked with evaluating project cost-effectiveness with both costs and benefits assigned to “High”, “Medium” and “Low” ratings. Where quantitative estimates of costs and benefits were available, ratings/ranges were defined as: • Low = < $10,000 • Medium = $10,000 to $100,000 • High = > $100,000 Where quantitative estimates of costs and/or benefits were not available, qualitative ratings using the following definitions were used: Table 6-2. Qualitative Cost and Benefit Ratings Costs High Existing funding levels are not adequate to cover the costs of the proposed project, and implementation would require an increase in revenue through an alternative source (e.g., bonds, grants, and fee increases). Medium The project could be implemented with existing funding but would require a re-apportionment of the budget or a budget amendment, or the cost of the project would have to be spread over multiple years. Low The project could be funded under the existing budget. The project is part of or can be part of an existing, ongoing program. Benefits High Project will have an immediate impact on the reduction of risk exposure to life and property. Medium Project will have a long-term impact on the reduction of risk exposure to life and property or will provide an immediate reduction in the risk exposure to property. Low Long-term benefits of the project are difficult to quantify in the short term. Using this approach, projects with positive benefit versus cost ratios (such as high over high, high over medium, medium over low, etc.) are considered cost-beneficial and are prioritized accordingly. For some of the Galveston County initiatives identified, the planning partnership may seek financial assistance under FEMA’s HMGP or Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) programs. These programs require detailed benefit/cost analysis as part of the application process. These analyses will be performed when funding applications are prepared, using the FEMA BCA model process. The planning partnership is committed to implementing mitigation strategies with benefits that exceed costs. For projects not seeking financial assistance from grant programs that require this sort of analysis, the planning partnership reserves the right to define “benefits” according to parameters that meet its needs and the goals and objectives of this HMP. SECTION 7: PLAN MAINTENANCE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 7-10 2022 Update SECTION 7. PLAN MAINTENANCE This section details the formal process that will ensure that the HMP remains an active and relevant document and that the Planning Partnership maintains their eligibility for applicable funding sources. The plan maintenance process includes a schedule for monitoring and evaluating the plan annually and producing an updated plan every five years. In addition, this section describes how public participation will be integrated throughout the plan maintenance and implementation process. It explains how the mitigation strategies outlined in this plan update will be incorporated into existing planning mechanisms and programs, such as comprehensive land use planning processes, capital improvement planning, and building code enforcement and implementation. The plan’s format allows sections to be reviewed and updated when new data become available, resulting in a plan that will remain current and relevant The plan maintenance matrix shown in Table 7-1 provides a synopsis of responsibilities for plan monitoring, evaluation, and update, which are discussed in further detail in the sections below. Table 7-1. Plan Maintenance Matrix Task Approach Timeline Lead Responsibility Support Responsibility Monitoring Preparation of status updates and action implementation tracking as part of submission for Annual Progress Report. Meet annually or upon major update to comprehensive plan or major disaster declaration Jurisdictional points of contact identified in Section 8 (Planning Partnership) and Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes) Jurisdictional implementation lead identified in Section 8 (Planning Partnership) and Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes) Integration In order for integration of mitigation principles action to become an organic part of the ongoing county and municipal activities, the County will incorporate the distribution of the safe growth worksheet for annual review and update by all participating jurisdictions. September each year with interim email reminders to address integration in county and municipal activities. HMP Coordinator and jurisdictional points of contact identified in Section 8 (Planning Partnership) and Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes) HMP Coordinator Evaluation Review the status of previous actions as submitted by the monitoring task lead and support to assess the effectiveness of the plan; compile and finalize the Annual Progress Report Finalized progress report completed by October 14 of each year Planning Partnership; Plan Maintenance element Jurisdictional points of contacts identified in Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes) Update Reconvene the planning partners, at a minimum, every 5 years to guide a comprehensive update to review and revise the plan. Every 5 years or upon major update to Master Plan or major disaster Galveston County HMP Coordinator Jurisdictional points of contacts identified in Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes) 7.1 MONITORING, EVALUATING AND UPDATING THE PLAN The procedures for monitoring, evaluating, and updating the plan are provided below. The HMP Coordinator is assigned to manage the maintenance and update of the plan during its performance period. The HMP Coordinator will chair the Planning Partnership and be the prime point of contact for questions SECTION 7: PLAN MAINTENANCE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 7-11 2022 Update regarding the plan and its implementation as well as to coordinate incorporation of additional information into the plan. The Planning Partnership shall fulfill the monitoring, evaluation and updating responsibilities identified in this section which is comprised of a representative from each participating jurisdiction. Each jurisdiction is expected to maintain a representative on the Planning Partnership throughout the plan performance period (five years from the date of plan adoption). As of the date of this plan, primary and secondary mitigation planning representatives (points-of-contact) are identified in each jurisdictional annex in Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes). Each jurisdiction will participate in an annual meeting to update the status of their action plan and incorporate information, ideas, and strategies into their individual action plans. Regarding the composition of the committee, it is recognized that individual commitments change over time, and it shall be the responsibility of each jurisdiction and its representatives to inform the HMP Coordinator of any changes in representation. The HMP Coordinator will strive to keep the committee makeup as a uniform representation of planning partners and stakeholders within the planning area. Currently, the Galveston County HMP Coordinator is designated as: Laura M. Norman, Deputy Emergency Management Coordinator Galveston County Office of Emergency Management 281-309-5013 | laura.norman@co.galveston.tx.us 7.1.1 Monitoring The Planning Partnership will be responsible for monitoring progress on, and evaluating the effectiveness of, the plan, and documenting annual progress. Each year, beginning one year after plan development, the Galveston County and local Planning Partnership representatives will collect and process information from the departments, agencies and organizations involved in implementing mitigation projects or activities identified in their jurisdictional annexes (Section 9) of this plan, by contacting persons responsible for initiating and/or overseeing the mitigation projects. In the first year of the performance period, this will be accomplished by utilizing an online performance progress reporting system, the BAToolSM which will enable municipal and county representatives to directly access mitigation initiatives to easily update the status of each project, document successes or obstacles to implementation, add or delete projects to maintain mitigation project implementation. It is anticipated that all participating partners will be prompted by the tool to update progress annually, providing an incentive for participants to refresh their mitigation strategies and to continue implementation of projects. It is expected that this reporting system will support the submittal of an increased number of project grant fund applications due to the functionality of the system which facilitates the sorting and prioritization of projects. In addition to progress on the implementation of mitigation actions, including efforts to obtain outside funding; and obstacles or impediments to implementation of actions, the information that Planning Partnership representatives shall be expected to document, as needed and appropriate include: • Any grant applications filed on behalf of the participating jurisdictions, • Hazard events and losses occurring in their jurisdiction, • Additional mitigation actions believed to be appropriate and feasible, • Public and stakeholder input, and • Plan monitoring for two years 2 through 4 of the plan performance period will be similarly addressed via the BAToolSM or manually. SECTION 7: PLAN MAINTENANCE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 7-12 2022 Update 7.1.2 Integration Process of the HMP into Municipal Planning Mechanisms Hazard mitigation is sustained action taken to reduce or eliminate the long-term risk to human life and property from natural hazards. Integrating hazard mitigation into a community’s existing plans, policies , codes, and programs leads to development patterns that do not increase risk from known hazards or leads to redevelopment that reduces risk from known hazards. The Galveston County HMP Planning Partnership was tasked with identifying how hazard mitigation is integrated into existing planning mechanisms. Refer to Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes) for how this is done for each participating municipality. Durin g this process, many municipalities recognized the importance and benefits of incorporating hazard mitigation into future municipal planning and regulatory processes. The Planning Partnership representatives will incorporate mitigation planning as an integral component of daily government operations. They will work with local government officials to integrate the newly adopted hazard mitigation goals and actions into the general operations of government and partner organizations. Further, the sample adoption resolution (Appendix A) includes a resolution item stating the intent of the local governing body to incorporate mitigation planning as an integral component of government and partner operations. By doing so, the Planning Partnership anticipates that: 1. Hazard mitigation planning will be formally recognized as an integral part of overall planning and emergency management efforts. 2. The Hazard Mitigation Plan, Comprehensive Plans, Emergency Management/Operations Plans and other relevant planning mechanisms will become mutually supportive documents that work in concert to meet the goals and needs of County residents. During the HMP annual review process, each participating municipality will be asked to document how they are utilizing and incorporating the Galveston County HMP 2022 update into their day-to-day operations and planning and regulatory processes. Additionally, the County will identify additional policies, programs, practices, and procedures that could be modified to accommodate hazard mitigation actions and include these findings and recommendations in the Annual HMP Progress Report. The following checklist was adapted from FEMA’s Local Mitigation Handbook (2013), Appendix A, Worksheet 4.2. This checklist will help a community analyze how hazard mitigation is integrated into local plans, ordinances, regulations, ordinances, and policies. By completing the checklist, it will help the County identify areas that integrate hazard mitigation currently and where to make improvements and reduce vulnerability to future development. In this manner, the integration of mitigation into municipal activities will evolve into an ongoing culture within the County. Table 7-2. Safe Growth Check List Planning Mechanisms Do you Do This? Notes: How is it being done or how will this be utilized in the future? Yes No Operating, Municipal and Capital Improvement Program Budgets • When constructing upcoming budgets, hazard mitigation actions will be funded as budget allows. Construction projects will be evaluated to see if they meet the hazard mitigation goals. • Annually, during adoption process, the municipality will review mitigation actions when allocating funding. • Do budgets limit expenditures on projects that would encourage development in areas vulnerable to natural hazards? • Do infrastructure policies limit extension of existing facilities and services that would SECTION 7: PLAN MAINTENANCE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 7-13 2022 Update Planning Mechanisms Do you Do This? Notes: How is it being done or how will this be utilized in the future? Yes No encourage development in areas vulnerable to natural hazards? • Do budgets provide funding for hazard mitigation projects identified in the County HMP? Human Resource Manual • Do any job descriptions specifically include identifying and/or implementing mitigation projects/actions or other efforts to reduce natural hazard risk? Building and Zoning Ordinances • Prior to, zoning changes, or development permitting, the municipality will review the hazard mitigation plan and other hazard analyses to ensure consistent and compatible land use. • Does the zoning ordinance discourage development or redevelopment within natural areas including wetlands, floodways, and floodplains? • Does it contain natural overlay zones that set conditions • Does the ordinance require developers to take additional actions to mitigate natural hazard risk? • Do rezoning procedures recognize natural hazard areas as limits on zoning changes that allow greater intensity or density of use? • Do the ordinances prohibit development within, of filling of, wetlands, floodways, and floodplains? Subdivision Regulations • Do the subdivision regulations restrict the subdivision of land within or adjacent to natural hazard areas? • Do the subdivision regulations restrict the subdivision of land within or adjacent to natural hazard areas? • Do the regulations provide for conservation subdivisions or cluster subdivisions in order to conserve environmental resources? • Do the regulations allow density transfers where hazard areas exist? Comprehensive Plan • Are the goals and policies of the plan related to those of the County HMP? • Does the future land use map clearly identify natural hazard areas? • Do the land use policies discourage development or redevelopment with natural hazard areas? • Does the plan provide adequate space for expected future growth in areas located outside natural hazard areas? Land Use SECTION 7: PLAN MAINTENANCE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 7-14 2022 Update Planning Mechanisms Do you Do This? Notes: How is it being done or how will this be utilized in the future? Yes No • Does the future land use map clearly identify natural hazard areas? • Do the land use policies discourage development or redevelopment with natural hazard areas? • Does the plan provide adequate space for expected future growth in areas located outside natural hazard areas? Transportation Plan • Does the transportation plan limit access to hazard areas? • Is transportation policy used to guide growth to safe locations? • Are transportation systems designed to function under disaster conditions (e.g. evacuation)? Environmental Management • Are environmental systems that protect development from hazards identified and mapped? • Do environmental policies maintain and restore protective ecosystems? • Do environmental policies provide incentives to development that is located outside protective ecosystems? Grant Applications • Data and maps will be used as supporting documentation in grant applications. Municipal Ordinances • When updating municipal ordinances, hazard mitigation will be a priority Economic Development • Local economic development group will take into account information regarding identified hazard areas when assisting new businesses in finding a location. Public Education and Outreach • Does the municipality have any public outreach mechanisms / programs in place to inform citizens on natural hazards, risk, and ways to protect themselves during such events? 7.1.3 Evaluating The evaluation of the mitigation plan is an assessment of whether the planning process and actions have been effective, if the HMP goals are being achieved, and whether changes are needed. The HMP will be evaluated on an annual basis to determine the effectiveness of the programs, and to reflect changes that could affect mitigation priorities or available funding. The status of the HMP will be discussed and documented at an annual plan review meeting of the Planning Partnership, to be held either in person or via teleconference approximately one year from the date of local adoption of this update, and successively thereafter. At least two weeks before the annual plan review meeting, SECTION 7: PLAN MAINTENANCE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 7-15 2022 Update the Galveston County HMP Coordinator will advise Planning Partnership members of the meeting date, agenda, and expectations of the members. The Galveston County HMP Coordinator will be responsible for calling and coordinating the annual plan review meeting and Soliciting input regarding progress toward meeting plan goals and objectives. These evaluations will assess whether: • Goals and objectives address current and expected conditions. • The nature or magnitude of the risks has changed. • Current resources are appropriate for implementing the HMP and if different or additional resources are now available. • Actions were cost effective. • Schedules and budgets are feasible. • Implementation problems, such as technical, political, legal or coordination issues with other agencies are presents. • Outcomes have occurred as expected. • Changes in County resources impacted plan implementation (e.g., funding, personnel, and equipment) • New agencies/departments/staff should be included, including other local governments as defined under 44 CFR 201.6. Specifically, the Planning Partnership will review the mitigation goals, objectives, and activities using performance-based indicators, including: • New agencies/departments • Project completion • Under/overspending • Achievement of the goals and objectives • Resource allocation • Timeframes • Budgets • Lead/support agency commitment • Resources • Feasibility Finally, the Planning Partnership will evaluate how other programs and policies have conflicted or augmented planned or implemented measures, and shall identify policies, programs, practices, and procedures that could be modified to accommodate hazard mitigation actions (“Implementation of Mitigation Plan through Existing Programs” subsection later in this section discusses this process). Other programs and policies can include those that address: • Economic development • Environmental preservation • Historic preservation • Redevelopment • Health and/or safety • Recreation • Land use/zoning • Public education and outreach SECTION 7: PLAN MAINTENANCE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 7-16 2022 Update • Transportation The Planning Partnership should refer to the evaluation forms, Worksheets #2 and #4 in the FEMA 386 -4 guidance document, to assist in the evaluation process (see Appendix F – Plan Maintenance). Further, the Planning Partnership should refer to any process and plan review deliverables developed by the County as a part of the plan review processes established for prior or existing local HMPs within the County. The Galveston County HMP Coordinator shall be responsible for preparing an Annual HMP Progress Report for each year of the performance period, based on the information provided by the local Planning Partnership members, information presented at the annual Planning Partnership meeting, and other information as appropriate and relevant. These annual reports will provide data for the five-year update of this HMP and will assist in pinpointing any implementation challenges. By monitoring the implementation of the HMP on an annual basis, the Planning Partnership will be able to assess which projects are completed, which are no longer feasible, and what projects should require additional funding. The Annual HMP Progress Report shall be posted on the Galveston County’s website to keep the public appraised of the plan’s implementation (located at GCOEM.org). Additionally, the website provides details on the HMP update planning process. As a community in the CRS program, Galveston County can use this report to meet annual CRS recertification requirements. To meet this recertification timeline, the Planning Partnership will strive to complete the review process and prepare an Annual HMP Progress Report by October 14th of each year. The HMP will also be evaluated and revised following any major disasters, to determine if the recommended actions remain relevant and appropriate. The risk assessment will also be revisited to see if any changes are necessary based on the pattern of disaster damages or if data listed in the Section 4.3 (Hazard Profiles) of this plan has been collected to facilitate the risk assessment. This is an opportunity to increase the community’s disaster resistance and build a better and stronger community. 7.1.4 Updating To facilitate the update process, the Galveston County HMP Coordinator, with support of the Planning Partnership, shall use the second annual meeting to develop and commence the implementation of a detailed plan update program. The Galveston County HMP Coordinator shall invite representatives from TDEM to this meeting to provide guidance on plan update procedures. This program shall, at a minimum, establish who shall be responsible for managing and completing the plan update effort, what needs to be included in the updated plan, and a detailed timeline with milestones to assure that the update is completed according to regulatory requirements. At this meeting, the Planning Partnership shall determine what resources will be needed to complete the update. The Galveston County HMP Coordinator shall be responsible for assuring that needed resources are secured. Following each five-year update of the mitigation plan, the updated plan will be distributed for public comment. After all comments are addressed, the HMP will be revised and distributed to all planning group members and the State of Texas State Hazard Mitigation Officer. 7.1.5 Grant Monitoring and Coordination Galveston County recognizes the importance of having an annual coordination period that helps each planning partner become aware of upcoming mitigation grant opportunities and identifies multi-jurisdiction projects to pursue. Grant monitoring will be the responsibility of each municipal partner as part of their annual progress reporting. The Galveston County HMP Coordinator will keep the planning partners apprised of FEMA Hazard SECTION 7: PLAN MAINTENANCE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 7-17 2022 Update Mitigation Assistance grant openings and assist in developing letters of intent for grant opportunities when practicable. Galveston County intends to be a resource to the planning partnership in the support of project grant writing and development. The degree of this support will depend on the level of assistance requested by the partnership during open windows for grant applications. As part of grant monitoring and coordination, Galveston County intends to provide the following: • Notification to planning partners about impending grant opportunities. • A current list of eligible, jurisdiction-specific projects for funding pursuit consideration. • Notification about mitigation priorities for the fiscal year to assist the planning partners in the selection of appropriate projects. Grant monitoring and coordination will be integrated into the annual progress report or as needed based on the availability of non-HMA or post-disaster funding opportunities 7.2 IMPLEMENTATION OF MITIGATION PLAN THROUGH EXISTING PROGRAMS Effective mitigation is achieved when hazard awareness and risk management approaches and strategies become an integral part of public activities and decision-making. Within the County there are many existing plans and programs that support hazard risk management, and thus it is critical that this hazard mitigation plan integrate and coordinate with, and complement, those existing plans, and programs. Section 5 (Capability Assessment) provides a summary and description of the existing plans, programs, and regulatory mechanisms at all levels of government (federal, state, county and local) that support hazard mitigation within the County. Within each jurisdictional annex in Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes), the County and each participating jurisdiction identified how each capability reduces risk and how they are integrating hazard risk management into their existing planning, regulatory, and operational/administrative framework. If they are currently not showing this, they indicate how they intend to promote this integration. It is the intention of Planning Partnership representatives to continue to incorporate mitigation planning as an integral component of daily government operations. The Planning Partnership representatives will work with local government officials to integrate the newly adopted hazard mitigation goals and actions into the general operations of government and partner organizations. Further, the sample adoption resolution (Appendix A [Adoption Resolutions]) includes a resolution item stating the intent of the local governing body to incorporate mitigation planning as an integral component of government and partner operations. By doing so, the Steering Committee anticipates that: • Hazard mitigation planning will be formally recognized as an integral part of overall emergency management efforts. • The Hazard Mitigation Plan, Master Plans, Emergency Operations Plans and other relevant planning mechanisms will become mutually supportive documents that work in concert to meet the goals and needs of county residents. Other planning processes and programs to be coordinated with the recommendations of the hazard mitigation plan include the following: • Emergency operations and response plans. SECTION 7: PLAN MAINTENANCE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 7-18 2022 Update • Training and exercise of emergency response plans. • Debris management plans. • Recovery plans. • Capital improvement programs. • Municipal codes. • Community design guidelines. • Water-efficient landscape design guidelines. • Stormwater management programs. • Water system vulnerability assessments. • Community Wildfire Protection Plans. • Comprehensive Flood Hazard Management Plans. • Resiliency plans. • Community Development Block Grant-Disaster Recovery action plans; and • Public information/education plans. Some action items do not need to be implemented through regulation. Instead, these items can be implemented through the creation of new educational programs, continued interagency coordination, or improved public participation. During the annual plan evaluation process, the Planning Partnership representatives will identify additional policies, programs, practices, and procedures that could be modified to accommodate hazard mitigation actions and include these findings and recommendations in the Annual HMP Progress Report. See Table 7-3 for integration opportunities individual jurisdictions will utilize to incorporate the information, strategies, and actions of this HMP into their existing plans. Table 7-3. Integration of the HMP into Other Planning Mechanisms, By Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Plan or Program Last Update (if known) How will this HMP be incorporated in the plan? Galveston County Disaster Debris Management Plan Use hazard mapping to determine potentially large areas with debris after natural disasters. Galveston County Floodplain Regulations August 2019 Incorporate flood risk assessment and hazard mapping in regulations. Galveston County Dune Protection and Beach Access Plan September 2006 Incorporate coastal erosion, flood, tsunami and hurricane/tropical storm risk assessments and hazard mapping in future plan updates. Galveston County Agricultural Plan Incorporate flood, drought, hail, and severe winter storm risk assessments and available hazard mapping in future plan updates. Galveston County Emergency Management Plan 2017 Use risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives to develop plan updates. Continuity of Operations Plan Use risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives to develop plan updates. Galveston County Health Plan, Annex H Incorporated pandemic risk assessment and actions into future plan updates. Bayou Vista (C) Capital Improvement Plan 2021-2022 City Budget Include applicable mitigation initiatives in annual CIP budgetary allotments. Plan major infrastructure improvements in areas suitable for safe growth and avoid capital expenditures in hazard areas. SECTION 7: PLAN MAINTENANCE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 7-19 2022 Update Jurisdiction Plan or Program Last Update (if known) How will this HMP be incorporated in the plan? Emergency Management Plan Use risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives to develop plan updates. Clear Lake Shores (C) Clear Lake Shores Strategic Plan 5-year (2019- 2024) Incorporate all risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives in the update of the safety and land use elements, as applicable. Target growth for low hazard areas. Flood Damage Prevention (Chapter 38 of the City Code) September 2021 Incorporate flood risk assessment and hazard mapping in future code revisions. Seek to acquire high hazard areas for public open space. Stormwater Ordinance Incorporate flood risk assessment and hazard mapping in future revisions. Open Space Ordinance Incorporate flood and wildfire risk assessment and hazard mapping in future revisions. Town Center Master Plan March 2009 Incorporate flood and erosion risk assessments and hazard mapping in future plan updates. Town Center Overlay February 2010 Incorporate flood, erosion, and pandemic risk assessments and available hazard mapping in future updates. Emergency Management Ordinance August 2012 Use risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives in future revisions. Windstorm Protection Program Incorporate thunderstorm wind, tornado, and hurricane/tropical storm risk assessments and hazard mapping in future program updates. Dickinson (C) Comprehensive Community Plan 2015-2030 September 2016 Incorporate all risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives in the update of the safety and land use elements, as applicable. Target growth for low hazard areas. Capital Improvement Plan November 2021 Include applicable mitigation initiatives in annual CIP budgetary allotments. Plan major infrastructure improvements in areas suitable for safe growth and avoid capital expenditures in hazard areas. Flood Damage Prevention and Protection Ordinance Incorporate flood risk assessment and hazard mapping in future revisions. Seek to acquire high hazard areas for public open space. Stormwater Management Plan Incorporate flood risk assessment and hazard mapping in future plan revisions. City of Dickinson Basic Plan 2020 Use risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives to develop plan updates. Friendswood (C) Comprehensive Plan July 1998; Future Land Use Map 2008 Incorporate all risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives in the update of the safety and land use elements, as applicable. Target growth for low hazard areas. Capital Improvement Plan 2017-2020 5-year plan Include applicable mitigation initiatives in CIP budgetary allotments. Plan major infrastructure improvements in areas suitable for safe growth and avoid capital expenditures in hazard areas. Disaster Debris Management Plan 2014 Use hazard mapping to determine potentially large areas with debris after natural disasters. City of Friendswood Flood Vulnerability and Mitigation Study April 2019 Incorporate flood and hurricane/tropical storm risk assessments and hazard mapping in future revisions. SECTION 7: PLAN MAINTENANCE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 7-20 2022 Update Jurisdiction Plan or Program Last Update (if known) How will this HMP be incorporated in the plan? Master Drainage Plan 2018 Incorporate flood risk assessment and hazard mapping in future revisions. Transportation Plan 2018 In future updates, use hazard mapping to determine potential evacuation routes before and after natural disaster events. Use transportation planning to guide growth to safer areas. Downtown District Improvement Plan 2017 Incorporate risk assessments and hazard mapping in future revisions. Civil Emergency Management Ordinance Use risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives in future revisions. Continuity of Operations Plan 2014 Use risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives to develop plan updates. Hitchcock (C) Comprehensive Plan 2020-2040 Incorporate all risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives in the update of the safety and land use elements, as applicable. Target growth for low hazard areas. Capital Improvement Plan (5-year plan) 2022 Include applicable mitigation initiatives in CIP budgetary allotments. Plan major infrastructure improvements in areas suitable for safe growth and avoid capital expenditures in hazard areas. Disaster Debris Management Plan Use hazard mapping to determine potentially large areas with debris after natural disasters. Floodplain SOP Incorporate flood risk assessment and hazard mapping in future code revisions. Protect critical infrastructure from flooding. Stormwater Management Program – Structural Control Guideline Incorporate flood risk assessment and hazard mapping in future guideline revisions. Hitchcock Emergency Response Plan Use risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives to develop plan updates. Jamaica Beach (C) Comprehensive Plan April 2017 Incorporate all risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives in the update of the safety and land use elements, as applicable. Target growth for low hazard areas. Stormwater Management Ordinance December 1993 Incorporate flood risk assessment and hazard mapping in future revisions. Shoreline Management Ordinance December 1993 Incorporate flood and erosion risk assessments and hazard mapping in future revisions. Seek to acquire high hazard areas for public open space. Emergency Management Ordinance March 1994 Use risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives in future revisions. Kemah (C) Strategic Plan, 2009- 2013 Incorporate all risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives in the update of the safety and land use elements, as applicable. Target growth for low hazard areas. Capital Projects 2022 Include applicable mitigation initiatives in annual CIP budgetary allotments. Plan major infrastructure improvements in areas suitable for safe growth and avoid capital expenditures in hazard areas. SECTION 7: PLAN MAINTENANCE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 7-21 2022 Update Jurisdiction Plan or Program Last Update (if known) How will this HMP be incorporated in the plan? Floodplain Management Plan Incorporate flood risk assessment and hazard mapping in future plan revisions. Seek to acquire high hazard areas for public open space. Stormwater Management Program June 2019 Incorporate flood risk assessment and hazard mapping in future program revisions. Emergency Management Plan Use risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives in future plan revisions. La Marque (C) Capital Improvement Plan 2022 Include applicable mitigation initiatives in annual CIP budgetary allotments. Plan major infrastructure improvements in areas suitable for safe growth and avoid capital expenditures in hazard areas. Disaster Debris Management Plan Use hazard mapping to determine potentially large areas with debris after natural disasters. Floodplain Management Plan Incorporate flood risk assessment and hazard mapping in future plan revisions. Seek to acquire high hazard areas for public open space. Stormwater Management Program Incorporate flood risk assessment and hazard mapping in future program revisions. Parks Master Plan In progress Incorporate all risk assessments and hazard mapping, as applicable in the development of the plan. Imagine La Marque – Renaissance District Revitalization Plan 2017 Incorporate risk assessments and hazard mapping in future revisions. League City (C) Comprehensive Plan 2035 June 2013 Incorporate all risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives in the update of the safety and land use elements, as applicable. Target growth for low hazard areas. Capital Improvement Plan (2022-2026) September 2021 Include applicable mitigation initiatives in annual CIP budgetary allotments. Plan major infrastructure improvements in areas suitable for safe growth and avoid capital expenditures in hazard areas. Disaster Debris Management Plan Use hazard mapping to determine potentially large areas with debris after natural disasters. Parks, Trails, and Open Space Master Plan November 2017 Incorporate flood and wildfire risk assessment and hazard mapping in future revisions. Master Mobility Plan 2018 In future updates, use hazard mapping to determine potential evacuation routes before and after natural disaster events. Use transportation planning to guide growth to safer areas. Revitalizing Historic League City – Downtown Redevelopment 2016 Incorporate risk assessments and hazard mapping in future revisions. Emergency Management Plan Use risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives in future plan revisions. Santa Fe (C) Capital Improvement Plan (2021-2022) Include applicable mitigation initiatives in annual CIP budgetary allotments. Plan major infrastructure improvements in areas suitable for safe growth and avoid capital expenditures in hazard areas. Disaster Debris Management Plan Use hazard mapping to determine potentially large areas with debris after natural disasters. SECTION 7: PLAN MAINTENANCE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 7-22 2022 Update Jurisdiction Plan or Program Last Update (if known) How will this HMP be incorporated in the plan? Floodplain Management Plan Incorporate flood risk assessment and hazard mapping in future plan revisions. Seek to acquire high hazard areas for public open space. Stormwater Management Program Incorporate flood risk assessment and hazard mapping in future plan revisions. Tiki Island (V) Emergency Management Plan Use risk assessments, hazard mapping, and mitigation initiatives in future plan revisions. 7.3 CONTINUED PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT Galveston County and participating jurisdictions are committed to the continued involvement of the public in the hazard mitigation process. This HMP update will continue to be posted on-line: http://www.gcoem.org In addition, public outreach, and dissemination of the HMP will include: • Links to the plan on municipal websites of each jurisdiction with capability. • Continued utilization of existing social media outlets (Facebook, Twitter) to inform the public of natural hazard events, such as floods and severe storms. Educate the public via the jurisdictional websites on how these applications can be used in an emergency situation. • Development of annual articles or workshops on flood hazards to educate the public and keep them aware of the dangers of flooding The Steering Committee representatives and the Galveston County HMP Coordinator will be responsible for receiving, tracking, and filing public comments regarding this HMP. The public will have an opportunity to comment on the plan via the hazard mitigation website at any time. The HMP Coordinator will maintain this website, posting new information and maintaining an active link to collect public comments. The public can also provide input at the annual review meeting for the HMP and during the next five-year plan update. The Galveston County HMP Coordinator is responsible for coordinating the plan evaluation portion of the meeting, soliciting feedback, collecting, and reviewing the comments, and ensuring their incorporation in the five-year plan update as appropriate. Additional meetings might also be held as deemed necessary by the planning group. The purpose of these meeting would be to provide the public an opportunity to express concerns, opinions, and ideas about the mitigation plan. The Steering Committee representatives shall be responsible to assure that: • Public comment and input on the plan, and hazard mitigation in general, are recorded and addressed, as appropriate. • Copies of the latest approved plan (or draft in the case that the five-year update effort is underway) are available for review, along with instructions to facilitate public input and comment on the HMP. • Appropriate links to the Galveston County Hazard Mitigation Plan webpage are included on municipal websites. • Public notices are made as appropriate to inform the public of the availability of the plan, particularly during HMP update cycles. The Galveston County HMP Coordinator shall be responsible to assure that: SECTION 7: PLAN MAINTENANCE Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan 7-23 2022 Update Public and stakeholder comment and input on the plan, and hazard mitigation in general, are recorded and addressed, as appropriate. • Copies of the latest approved plan are available for review at appropriate county facilities along with instructions to facilitate public input and comment on the plan. • Public notices, including media releases, are made as appropriate to inform the public of the availability of the plan, particularly during plan update cycles PLANNING PARTNERSHIP Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan Ref-8-24 2022 Update SECTION 8. PLANNING PARTNERSHIP This section provides a description of the Galveston County’s HMP update planning partnership, their responsibilities throughout the planning process, and the jurisdictional annexes developed as a result of their plan update efforts. 8.1 PLAN MAINTENANCE PROCEDURES The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) encourages multi-jurisdictional planning for hazard mitigation. All participating jurisdictions must meet the requirements of Chapter 44 of the Code of Federal Regulations (44 CFR): “Multi-jurisdictional plans (e.g., watershed plans) may be accepted, as appropriate, as long as each jurisdiction has participated in the process and has officially adopted the plan” [Section 201.6a(4)] For the Galveston County HMP update, a Planning Partnership was formed to leverage resources and to meet requirements for the federal Disaster Mitigation Action of 2000 (DMA) for as many eligible governments as possible. Members of the Planning Partnership consisted of representatives from each jurisdiction. The DMA defines a local government as follows: Any county, municipality, city, town, township , public authority, school district, special district, intrastate district, council of governments (regardless of whether the council of governments is incorporated as a nonprofit corporation under State law), regional or interstate government entity, or agency or instrumentality of a local government; any Indian tribe or authorized tribal organization, or Alaska Native village or organization; and any rural community, unincorporated town or village, or other public entity. Each participating planning partner has prepared a jurisdictional annex to this plan. These annexes, as well as information on the process by which they were created, are contained in this volume. 8.2 INITIAL SOLICITATION AND LETTERS OF INTENT Galveston County solicited the participation of all municipalities in the County at the commencement of this project. Galveston County and 11 municipalities in the County participated in the update process and have met the minimum requirements of participation as established by the County and Steering Committee. 8.3 PLANNING PARTNER EXPECTATIONS The Planning Partners agreed to the following planning partner expectations, which were outlined in the letter sent by Galveston County on September 20, 2021 and confirmed at the kick-off meeting held on September 29, 2021 (see Appendix C [Meeting Documentation] for details): • Provide representation at regular planning group meetings and workshops. • Be responsible for providing data and information as requested. Members of the Planning Partnership have the expertise to develop the plan and have their jurisdiction’s authority to implement the mitigation strategy developed during the planning process. The Planning Partnership is responsible for developing and reviewing draft sections of the plan, updating their respective annex, creating the mitigation strategy for their jurisdiction, and adopting the final plan. PLANNING PARTNERSHIP Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan Ref-8-25 2022 Update • Review and comment on data and information compiled by the contract consultant relevant to their jurisdiction. • Be responsible for completing plan documents specific to your municipality, using provided templates with guidance and assistance by the contract consultant. • Assist with the identification of stakeholders within your community that should be informed and potentially involved with the planning process. • Facilitate public outreach efforts with residents and local stakeholders within your community using materials provided by the contract consultant. • Assist with the identification of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and obstacles to implementing natural hazard mitigation within your community. • Assist with the identification of past, ongoing and appropriate future mitigation strategies, and activities within your municipality. • Review and comment on plan documents, specifically the draft and final plans prior to submission to TDEM and FEMA. As described in Section 7 (Plan Maintenance), the planning partnership is intended to remain active beyond the regulatory update to support plan maintenance. Regarding the composition of the Steering and Planning Committees, it is recognized that individual commitments change over time, and it will be the responsibility of each jurisdiction and its representatives to inform the HMP Coordinator of any changes in representation. 8.4 JURISDICTIONAL ANNEX PREPARATION PROCESS New to the 2022 HMP, jurisdictional annexes were used to provide a unique, stand-alone guide to mitigation planning for each participating jurisdiction. The Galveston County HMP Update is organized so that there is an annex for Galveston County and for every participating jurisdiction. Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes) includes an annex for every jurisdiction in Galveston County. 8.4.1 Data Collection Each jurisdiction was paired with a contract consultant mitigation planner to work with the mitigation team to update their annexes. Each jurisdiction was asked to participate in a municipal kick-off meeting, held on September 29, 2021 to review participant expectations and the updated information needed to support the annex update. It was made clear that the annexes are sections of the plan that can be enhanced if more information is available to further customize any and all aspects of mitigation planning. 8.4.2 Hazard Ranking Exercise The presentation of the risk assessment and hazard ranking for each jurisdiction was conducted December 21, 2021. At this meeting, the consultant presented the overall risk assessment for the hazards of concern and distributed jurisdiction-specific handouts with risk assessment results relevant to each plan participant. In addition, each planning partner was asked to review the ranked hazards specific for its jurisdiction. Refer to Section 4.4 (Hazard Ranking) for the methodology of the hazard ranking process. The calculated ranking was presented to each jurisdiction and they were asked to review the ranking and revise based on history of events, probability of occurrence, and the potential impact on people, property, and the economy. In addition, each jurisdiction was asked to rank their adaptive capacity for each hazard. Refer to Appendix B (Participation Matrix) for the input submitted by each municipality. The objectives of this exercise were to familiarize the partnership with how to use the risk assessment as a tool to support other planning and hazard mitigation processes and to help prioritize types of mitigation actions that should be considered. Hazards that were ranked PLANNING PARTNERSHIP Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan Ref-8-26 2022 Update as “high” for each jurisdiction as a result of this exercise were considered to be priorities for identifying appropriate mitigation actions, although jurisdictions also identified actions to mitigate “medium” or “low” ranked hazards as appropriate. 8.4.3 Strengths Weaknesses Obstacles and Opportunities (SWOO) Exercise After the draft risk assessment results were presented and hazard ranking exercise at the second Steering Committee Meeting on November 18, 2021, attendees participated in a facilitated SWOO session to identify strengths, weakness or challenges, obstacles, and opportunities in hazard mitigation for the County’s hazards of concern. All SWOO results were compiled and provided as a resource to plan participants at the Mitigation Strategy Workshop in December 2021. Refer to Appendix B (Participation Matrix) which provides the information captured by meeting participants during the SWOO session. 8.4.4 Mitigation Strategy Workshop A mitigation strategy workshop was conducted by the contracted planning consultant on December 2, 2021, for all participating jurisdictions to support the development of the updated mitigation strategy. To assist with the identification of implementable and action-oriented mitigation actions, the participating jurisdictions were provided with tools to help identify mitigation strategies: public survey responses, potential mitigation actions for each jurisdiction, and FEMA Mitigation Ideas. The purpose of this workshop was to guide the planning partnership in completing this portion of the planning process and discuss how projects that are well developed and documented are more quickly identifiable for selection when grants become available. At the workshop, the Planning Partnership focused on developing problem statements based on the impacts of hazards in the County and their communities. The results of the updated risk assessment, challenges and opportunities identified during the capability assessment update and SWOO sessions, and information gathered from the public survey were used to develop mitigation strategies. As a result, a mitigation workbook was compiled with potential mitigation actions for the County and participating jurisdictions. This workbook helped form a bridge between the hazard risk assessment, which quantifies impacts to each community, with the development of achievable mitigation strategies. Mitigation development worksheets were filled out by each municipality to identify additional problem statements and draft action worksheets were developed. 8.4.5 Municipal Support Conference Calls In addition to the municipal kick-off meeting, municipal support conference calls were held throughout the planning process. During these calls, the consultant worked one-on-one with the planning partners to complete their jurisdictional annexes. Each section of the annex was discussed to ensure accuracy and completeness. This included, but not limited to, the following: • Reviewing the calculated hazard ranking for the jurisdiction and provide input to adjust the ranking as necessary. • Updating information regarding the jurisdiction’s capabilities and past integration of hazard mitigation concepts. • Identify mitigation initiatives that have reasonable potential to be accomplished within the lifespan of the County HMP (five years), including both FEMA-eligible projects and those projects using funds from non-FEMA sources. 8.4.6 Jurisdictional Annexes PLANNING PARTNERSHIP Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan Ref-8-27 2022 Update While the jurisdictional annex format is designed to document and assure local compliance with the DMA 2000 regulations, its greater purpose and function includes: • Providing a locally-relevant synthesis of the overall mitigation plan that can be readily presented, distributed, and maintained. • Facilitating local understanding of the community’s risk to natural hazards. • Facilitating local understanding of the community’s capabilities to manage natural hazard risk, including opportunities to improve those capabilities. • Facilitating local understanding of the efforts the community has taken, and plans to take, to reduce their natural hazard risk. • Facilitating the implementation of mitigation strategies, including the development of grant applications. • Providing a framework by which the community can continue to capture relevant data and information for future plan updates. It is recognized that each jurisdiction’s annex is a “living” document and will continue to be improved as resources permit. As such, its design is intended to promote and accommodate continued efforts to maintain the annex to be current and to improve the effectiveness of the annex as the key tool, reference, and guiding document by which the jurisdiction will implement hazard mitigation locally. The following provides a description of the various elements of the jurisdictional annex. Section 9.X.1: Hazard Mitigation Planning Team: Identifies the hazard mitigation planning team who provided input during the planning process. Further detail is provided in Section 2 (Planning Process) and Appendix B (Participation Matrix). Section 9.X.2: Jurisdictional Profile: Provides an overview and profile of the jurisdiction, including an identification of areas of known and anticipated future development and the vulnerability of those areas to the hazards of concern. Section 9.X.3: Jurisdictional Capability Assessment and Integration: This subsection provides an inventory and evaluation of the jurisdiction’s tools, mechanisms, and resources available to support hazard mitigation and natural hazard risk reduction. Within the municipal annexes, tables provide an inventory of the municipality's planning and regulatory, administrative, and technical, and fiscal, capabilities, respectively. Further, another table identifies the municipality's level of participation in state and federal programs designed to promote and incentivize local risk reduction efforts. Further information regarding Federal, State, and local capabilities may be found in the Capability Assessment portion of Section 5. Section 9.X.4: National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Compliance: A tabular summary of the specific information on the management and regulation of the regulatory floodplain, including current and future compliance with the NFIP. Section 9.X.5: Growth/Development Trends: Identifies of areas of known and anticipated future development and the vulnerability of those areas to the hazards of concern. Section 9.X.6: Jurisdictional Risk Assessment: • Hazard Extent and Location: Each annex includes a map (or series of maps) illustrating identified hazard zones and critical facilities. Further, these maps show areas of known or anticipated future development, as available and provided by the jurisdiction. PLANNING PARTNERSHIP Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan Ref-8-28 2022 Update • Hazard Event History: Identifies hazard events that have caused significant impacts within the jurisdiction, including a summary characterization of those impacts as identified by the jurisdiction. The documentation of events and losses is critical to supporting the identification and justification of appropriate mitigation actions, including providing critical data for benefit-cost analysis. It is recognized that this “inventory” of events and losses is a work-in-progress and may continue to be improved as resources permit. As such, the lack of data or information for a specific event does not necessarily mean that the jurisdiction did not suffer significant losses during that event. • Hazard Ranking and Vulnerabilities: This subsection provides information regarding each plan participant’s vulnerability to the identified hazards. Full data and information on the hazards of concern, the methodology used to develop the vulnerability assessments, and the results of those assessments that serve as the basis of these local risk rankings may be found in Section 4 (Risk Assessment). Section 9.X.7: Mitigation Strategy and Prioritization: This section discusses and provides the status of past mitigations actions and status, describes proposed hazard mitigation initiatives, and prioritization. • Past Mitigation Initiative Status: Where applicable, a review of progress on the jurisdiction’s prior mitigation strategy is presented, identifying the disposition of each prior action, project, or initiative in the jurisdiction’s updated mitigation strategy. Other completed or on-going mitigation activities that were not specifically part of a prior local mitigation strategy may be included in this sub-section as well. • Additional Mitigation Efforts: Other completed or on-going mitigation activities that were not specifically part of a prior local mitigation strategy may be included in this subsection as well. • Proposed Hazard Mitigation Initiatives for the Plan Update: Table 9.X-16 presents the jurisdiction’s updated mitigation strategy. As indicated, applicable mitigation actions, projects and initiatives are further documented on an Action Worksheet which provides details on the project identification, evaluation, prioritization, and implementation process. Table 9.X-17 provides a summary of the local mitigation strategy prioritization process discussed in Section 6 (Mitigation Strategy). 8.4.7 Annex Review Workshops and additional meetings (via email and/or teleconference) to complete the jurisdictional annexes were held with the Steering Committee and Planning Partnership throughout the planning process. In preparation for the draft plan public review, each jurisdiction was asked to have their ‘mitigation team’ review their annex to ensure it was complete and accurate for posting to the Galveston County Office of Emergency Management’s mitigation website. To demonstrate broad and comprehensive review and input, each jurisdiction collected signatures from these representatives. Refer to Appendix B (Participation Matrix) to review the annex signature pages. In summary, all participating communities and the County completed the planning partner expectations and annex-preparation process. Details regarding these meetings are described further in Section 2 (Planning Process) and Section 6 (Mitigation Strategy). Completed jurisdictional annexes are presented in Section 9 (Jurisdictional Annexes). 8.5 COVERAGE UNDER THE PLAN The County and 11 jurisdictions met the participation requirements specified by the Steering Committee. Any non-participating local jurisdiction within the Galveston County planning area can “dock” to this plan in the future following the linkage procedures defined in Appendix G (Linkage Procedures). PLANNING PARTNERSHIP Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan Ref-8-29 2022 Update Table 8-1 lists the status of each participating jurisdiction and their ultimate status in this plan update. Refer to Appendix B (Participation Matrix) and Appendix C (Meeting Documentation) for details on participation and meeting attendance. Table 8-1. Jurisdictional Status Municipality Attended Workshops and/or Meetings and Project Calls Provided Update on Past Projects Submitted Mitigation Actions for Current Plan Seeking Approval for Adoption (meets all previous requirements) Galveston County X X X X Bayou Vista (C) X X X X Clear Lake Shores (C) X X X X Dickinson (C) X X X X Friendswood (C) X X X X Hitchcock (C) X X X X Jamaica Beach (C) X X X X Kemah (C) X X X X La Marque (C) X X X X League City (C) X X X X Santa Fe (C) X X X X Tiki Island (V) X X X X N/A = Not applicable. References Galveston County, TX | Hazard Mitigation Plan Ref-1 2022 Update References Association of State Dam Safety Officials. 2021. Dams 101. Accessed November 26, 2021. https://www.damsafety.org/dams101#Dams%20Are%20a%20Vital%20Part%20of%20the%20Nation al%20Infrastructure. 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